The 3-2-1 Column: Opt outs, signing day, and Pitt basketball is on a roll

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It was a busy week in the world of Pitt athletics. The Pitt basketball team scored a big win over Syracuse on Tuesday night and are off to their best start in years. Pat Narduzzi and the football program announced 22 new additions to the program on Wednesday, and some of Pitt’s best players from the 2022 team will be moving on after this season.

We get into all of that and more in this week’s 3-2-1 Column.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Key players moving on
It was a busy week for Pitt football on the recruiting trail, but the current team stole the headlines on Monday morning. A number of key players ‘opted out’ of playing in the Sun Bowl, and while that topic is worth a discussion in itself, I think the bigger takeaway here is that some of those players with remaining eligibility won’t be around for next season.

Pitt saw five notable players with eligibility announce this week that they will be moving on from the program and will be seeking an opportunity in the NFL next season. Of course, each individual case is a little bit different.

On Thursday evening, Pitt All-American defensive tackle Calijah Kancey announced he will be heading to the NFL. Kancey was a beast in the 2022 season and became Pitt’s 15th all-time unanimous All-American and was the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. Kancey played in 11 games this season and posted 14.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. He was injured in the Duke game and was forced to have season-ending surgery, cutting short his time at Pitt rather abruptly. It’s not a surprise Kancey is moving on, as he has likely proven all he could at the college level. His draft stock will always be questioned due to his size for the position he plays, and playing another year of college football wouldn’t change that.

Linebacker SirVocea Dennis and safety Erick Hallett are both seniors, and will be heading to the NFL, which under normal circumstances wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see them move on after this year. However, given that both players played through the 2020 COVID season, they both had the option to come back next season.

They are both tough losses for Pitt, but not really unexpected either. Dennis has been Pitt’s best linebacker in over a decade and earned all-conference recognition for three straight seasons, including first team honors in 2022. I wonder about his placement in the draft due to his size as a middle linebacker, but he has been plenty production as a college player and isn’t getting any taller with an extra year at Pitt.

Hallett has been a steady performer for multiple years and reached second team All-American status this year by the FWAA. He grabbed three interceptions and recovered three fumbles this season. Hallett manned the field safety position for two years following in the footsteps of current Buffalo Bills starter Damar Hamlin. This position is arguably the toughest spot to play in this defensive scheme and he has handled it very well. Given Pitt’s recent track record of getting defensive backs drafted, I think Hallett has very little to prove if he returned for a sixth year.

The other cases were not quite as simple, as both Israel Abanikanda and Brandon Hill are juniors, and will be exiting college a year earlier than expected. It’s hard to blame Abanikanda, who plays the most physically demanding position on the field, and one that tends to have a shorter shelf life in the NFL.

Abanikanda was as good as any running back in the country this season after rushing for 1,431 yards and 20 touchdowns as a junior. He was easily Pitt’s best offensive weapon this season, and replacing him in 2023 won’t be easy. It makes sense he is trying to strike on his successful season and take a chance at getting drafted now, rather than risking injury in a potential senior season.

Hill was a second team All-ACC safety in 2021 and started all 12 games this season. He may not have been expected to leave, but his departure means Pitt will have to usher in two new starting safeties next season. And again, Pitt has a track record with getting defensive backs to the league, and he may have heard better feedback than expected.

Hallett is the only one in the group that plans to participate in the Sun Bowl. The other four, along with sixth-year seniors Deslin Alexandre and Gabe Houy, have ‘opted out’ of the game to start preparing for the draft. While I think that part of the story is still notable overall, the bigger part of the plot here is that Pitt will need to find a way to replace its best defensive player, leading rusher, middle linebacker, and both safeties heading into the 2023 season, on top of all the seniors they expected to leave.

I think some of these decisions are more surprising than others, but it now helps paint a better picture of what this staff needs to do heading into the offseason. And of course, the offseason revolving door can continue. I think the expectation is that Habakkuk Baldonado will move on, but he has yet to officially come out and say that, and leading receiver Jared Wayne likely has a decision to make as well.

Pitt is 2-0 in the ACC
The Pitt basketball team scored a big win on Tuesday night over the Syracuse Orange. It was an interesting game of course, as the team nearly squandered a 20-point halftime lead. Pitt needed to make two late stops on defense, but in the end came away victorious with an 84-82 win.

We can talk about how the team struggled with the full-court pressure, or how they let their foot off the gas, or how the team did not make a field goal in the final 6:22 of the game. Those aspects are all part of the story of how the game got to be so close, but in the end I think the win itself and where the team stands after 13 games is the real storyline at the moment.

Pitt is 9-4 overall and 2-0 in the ACC. Coming off an 11-win season last year, I don’t think that is anything to scoff at right now, especially considering they have not made the NCAA Tournament since 2016. This is a program that needs something to hang their hat on and a coach in Jeff Capel, who needs to show some signs of progress.

Well, I am seeing some progress.

Pitt basketball has displayed some fight this year following a 1-3 start. They are playing with some pride and hell, even some swagger. I couldn’t help but notice when they were going on their big run in the Carrier, er, JMA Wireless Dome on Tuesday, they were letting the crowd know about about it. Blake Hinson threw down some dunks and let out a yell. Nelly Cummings made a three and he was letting the shooting hand hang for a few seconds. Man I don’t know, but I think it’s a good thing for this team. They should play with some confidence and with a chip on their shoulder.

There has not been much excitement around Pitt Basketball in quite a while. Even the latter stages of the Jamie Dixon era felt boring and stale. Pitt has won eight of the last nine games, they need to turn this current wave of momentum into something, and not just have it be another blip on the radar among another dismal season.

We have seen some glimpses over the last couple years from this program. Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens secured some big wins. Justin Champagnie was a stud. John Hugley was a beast last year. They have had great individual performances and stretches where the team has played well, but rarely were they able to extend that into anything substantial.

I feel like this year’s team is a bit different and can build off of this start.

Pitt has grown men on the team, very reminiscent of some of the Pitt teams from the heyday of the Big East. Some recent Pitt teams have felt like they lacked leadership and and had some immature parts to it, which led to downward spirals late in the year. There is something to be said for having a team driven by seniors rather than freshmen and sophomores.

Pitt starts three senior guards in Nelly Cummings, Jamarius Burton, and Greg Elliott and while they were a little shaky against the full court pressure on Tuesday, by in large they have proven to be mentally tough and that has been worth a lot to this solid start to the season. Pitt is 3-1 in road games on the year and they did not even win three away games in all of last season.

Blake Hinson, Pitt’s leading scorer and rebounder, has been a revelation this season. Watching him score 25 and snatch 13 rebounds in the Dome sparked memories of some old Pitt players attacking Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone through the years.

Again, I think everyone is still in ‘wait-and-see’ mode with this team, and I am as well to a degree. There have been bright spots and some big wins under Capel before only for it to bottom out quickly, but there does seem to be something different with this group, and not to mention there are also some pending enhancements to this roster as well.

John Hugley can be an All-ACC big man, he showed as much last season, and if he regains his form from last year even slightly, it will be a big boost to the rotation. Of course, top-50 recruit Dior Johnson’s potential return is still looming and he too could be a big addition to a team that needs some depth.

It looks pretty good right now, but there is a lot of season left and it starts on December 30th when league-favorite North Carolina comes to the Petersen Events Center. While the students are on break, there is a chance that The Petersen Events Center will actually feel like ‘The Pete’ again for some of these upcoming home games. It has been a lifeless few years in Oakland when Pitt is playing, but maybe that place can start to wake up and be a real home court advantage once again.

Pitt is a tough-minded team with veterans that do not seem intimidated and they are playing with a chip on their shoulder. That’s how Pitt basketball made its mark roughly 20 years ago. I’m not saying this group is taking that same path of the early 2000s, but they are worth watching right now, and it’s been a while since you could say that about Pitt hoops.

A boring Signing Day
Pitt expected 22 players to sign on Wednesday’s early national letter of intent day, and all 22 of them were accounted for before noon, which made for a rather uneventful day. There were no last minute additions to the class on Wednesday, but more importantly no late subtractions either. Boring signing days are sometimes the best ones for a college football program.

Pitt lost some key players along the way from the 2023 class, there is no denying that. Losing quarterback Kenny Minchey to Notre Dame and Brice Pollock to Mississippi State this fall were tough pills to swallow. However, they were able to withstand some late pushes on some of their other top prospects like Isaiah Neal, Shadarian Harrison, and Jordan Bass.

In the end, that’s a win the Pitt coaches will take.

Pitt’s big surprises late in the recruiting process were mostly positives. They were able to bring three-star wide receiver Zion Fowler back into the fold for a rare ‘recommitment’. Local star Cruce Brookins, much to everyone’s expectations, picked Pitt at a ceremony in front of his school. Israel Polk and Ty Dieffenbach might not have been well known names earlier in the recruiting process for Pitt, but the Panthers secured both prospects from California on Wednesday.

Pat Narduzzi and his staff also locked-in three transfers as well. The Phil Jurkovec transfer has been well documented by now. The one-time superstar recruit from Pittsburgh bounced from Notre Dame to Boston College and is back home to play for Pitt. He is in line to be Pitt’s starting quarterback this season, while new transfer Christian Veilleux from Penn State could very well take that role in 2024.

Pitt also grabbed Peters Township native and Florida transfer Donovan McMillon recently, and with Pitt’s both starting safeties moving on, he has a chance to make an immediate impact in 2023.

Pitt’s class, as it stands today and not including transfers, is ranked 50th according to Rivals.com. Given that Pitt was coming off of an ACC Championship and 11-win season, that ranking is certainly underwhelming. I believe Pitt hit on some needs in this signing class, they added some serious talent to the defensive side of the ball, while helping replenish some spots on offense.

The new era of college football with NIL and open transfers has made the recruiting process something new to navigate for everyone, and head coach Pat Narduzzi acknowledged as much in his press conference on Wednesday. He talked about maybe trying to add more players in June, with the understanding there may be more decommitments, but they could still hang onto the bulk of the class.

Narduzzi also mentioned about getting a larger support staff to help deal with the evolving world of the transfer portal. Given the life that thing has taken on, Pitt likely needs some more manpower to help track the portal.

After seeing the first year of recruiting under some new circumstances, Narduzzi is right that Pitt needs to be in a better position to address this new era. So while this class is not ranked as high as many would like to see given the successful season Pitt just had in 2021, in the end I do believe they added some good talent to the program on signing day.

Pitt went into Wednesday with 22 names they expected to sign and got them secured, which is the biggest positive of the day. However, in the class of 2024 and beyond, Pitt should be expected to recruit better and I think this class can be a lesson in how they need to approach recruiting in the future.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Who are the five best recruits in the class of 2023?
I want to be able to break down the class a bit. I recognize not everyone may follow the day to day happenings on the recruiting trail, and some people just want to hear about who Pitt landed on signing day. As I noted, this Pitt recruiting class did not finish high in the national rankings, and despite that, I do see some high end talent coming into the program.

So who are the biggest names you need to know? Here are my five top recruits from Pitt’s 2023 signing class.

Jordan Bass
Jordan Bass is rated as a three-star defensive back prospect from the Hampton, Virginia area. Bass was arguably the best high school football player in Virginia this season, as he led Phoebus High School to a perfect 15-0 record and a state title this season. Bass is coming to Pitt to play linebacker, and given his athleticism as a wide receiver and safety at the high school level, he should bring some speed to the position. He is not rated as such, but I get the Pitt coaching staff views him as their prized recruit in this class. Bass received a lot of late pushes from some other programs, so Pitt retaining him in the class should be considered a big win.

Isaiah Neal
Pitt is at the point in Pat Narduzzi’s tenure where they have a formula of sorts, especially on defense, and even more specifically on the defensive line. Pitt’s defense has been one of the best in the country at rushing the passer in recent seasons, and usually the key to that is having an anchor at the defensive tackle spot.

Pitt has succeeded through the years with defensive tackles that are on the smaller and quicker side. Jaylen Twyman had a big season in 2019, and of course Pitt junior Calijah Kancey was one of the best players in college football in 2022. While this staff did not coach him, that Aaron Donald guy fits that mark as well. When you look at Isaiah Neal, he fits that same mold. Pitt thrives with defensive tackles that can make plays behind the line of scrimmage, and there is a chance Isaial Neal out of St. Frances in Baltimore can be that next guy next in line to play that role.

Shadarian Harrison
Shadarian Harrison was another player that received some late pushes by some other college programs, but Pitt managed to withstand a late offer from Miami and kept him in the fold. Harrison is a long 6’2” and 175-pound cornerback out of Lakeland High School. He is another player that kind of fits into Pitt’s defensive philosophy. Like some of Pitt’s other top recruits, he played for one of the best high school teams in the country and helped Lakeland to a perfect 14-0 state title season. He shared a defensive backfield with five-star Cormani McClain. In Narduzzi's signing day press conference, he touted that the Pitt coaches believed Harrison was better than McClain. Whether that’s true may be a bit unlikely, but the Pitt staff has had a good eye for defensive backs and it’s noteworthy how high they are on Harrison.

Lamar Seymore
Miami Central High School is currently ranked as a top five program in the country. They ran off a perfect 14-0 season this year and Pitt commit Lamar Seymore led the team with 9 receiving touchdowns. Seymore is an athletic and speedy wideout from Florida. He was a one-time Miami commit and Auburn made a late run at him, but Pitt got him locked him down on Wednesday. Pitt’s wide receiver room needs flipped in a way, and the Panthers signing four wide receivers on Wednesday and the coaches continuing to pursue some transfer receivers only enhances that notion. Seymore will likely have an opportunity to get on the field as a true freshman if things kick in the right way for him.

Antonio Camon
Like in the case with Isaiah Neal, Florida native Antonio Camon is another talented defensive linemen that looks like a good match for Pitt’s defense. At 6’3” and 250-pounds, he could stick as a defensive end, or have the ability to move inside as well. Camon seems like another good piece to the that will be added to an already deep defensive line room under the guidance of Charlie Partridge. As a senior, he recorded 9 sacks in 10 games for Tampa Bay Tech High School this season.

Who are five players floating under the radar?
In Pitt’s 19-man 2023 recruiting class that signed on Wednesday, there are obviously some high-end prospects like we discussed, but some other talented names that can make a name for themselves as well that might not have the same fanfare.

Here are five names for me that are potentially floating on the radar, but I believe have a chance to be impact guys in their career.

Rasheem Biles
Rasheem Biles is a defensive playmaker from Pickerington Central High School in Ohio. He has recorded four pick sixes over the last two seasons and just always seems to be around the ball. Unfortunately for Biles, his senior year was cut short due to injury, but he still came down with some big plays and finished with 583 all purpose yards. At the high school level he played a little bit of offense, special teams, and was also mostly a defensive back. He is coming to Pitt as a linebacker, and while he may be a bit undersized for now, Biles should add some athleticism to that room.

Cruce Brookins
Pitt did not offer Cruce Brookins until last month, but I think the coaches have had their eye on him for a while. Narduzzi indicated on Wednesday that Brookins was injured over the summer, and may have slipped under the eye of some other college coaches and missed some camp opportunities. He was committed to Kent State, but once Pitt got involved Brookins switched allegiances and became the second WPIAL recruit in the class. Brookins helped Steel Valley to back-to-back WPIAL titles over the past two years. As a senior he intercepted seven passes for the Ironmen, and recorded 35 offensive touchdowns. He may be coming from a smaller high school program, but Pitt has had some success through the years finding players that fit that profile.

Ryan Carretta
Pitt only signed three offensive linemen on Wednesday, but Ryan Carretta feels like the best of the bunch. He checks in as a three-star recruit out of Columbus, Ohio. Carretta is listed at 6’5” and 318-pounds and Narduzzi mentioned he will play inside as a guard at the college level. Carretta received a good bit of attention from Michigan in the summer, and his recruitment ultimately came down to Pitt and Michigan State. After visiting Pitt then Michigan State a week later, Carretta opted to go with the Panthers. Offensive linemen rarely make impacts as true freshmen, but I think Carretta profiles nicely as a player to be on the fast track to play in 2024 and beyond.

TJ Harvison
Pitt is set to return Rodney Hammond and C’Bo Flemister to anchor the running back room next season, but it is undeniable Pitt will miss All-ACC pick Izzy Abanikanda in 2023. Pitt has seen that it takes multiple running backs to get through a season with how physically demanding the position is, and perhaps Georgia native TJ Harvison is someone that can help immediately. Harvison was a later add to the class, but was a very successful high school player as a senior. He rushed for 2,026 yards and 23 touchdowns this past year and led his team to a state title. He has a physical 6’1” and 200-pound build, and seems to invite contact with his running style.

Kenny Johnson
Many of Pitt’s recruits came from national powerhouse programs and won state championships as seniors, and being on teams of that stature can help get you recognized more than others. I’m not sure if Kenny Johnson had that same benefit, and that may have contributed in to him being a bit underrated. Johnson was a flat-out playmaker this season for Dallstown High School in York, PA. He brings good length at 6’1” and 185-pounds and should have a chance to get on the field in 2023.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt beats UCLA
This is my final 3-2-1 Column for 2022, and I hope nobody has actually been keep tabs of my track record in the prediction portion of these columns. My last 3-2-1 prediction I stated Pitt would win a national championship this year, only for the men’s soccer and volleyball teams to lose in the national semifinals.

Oops.

Either way, I like to be a bit bold sometimes in making predictions, and I have one more before we flip the calendar to 2023: I’m predicting Pitt will win the Sun Bowl next week.

Given that some of Pitt’s best players are either injured or have chosen to ‘opt out’ it won’t be an easy task for the Panthers to go into El Paso and defeat a ranked UCLA team. Looking at the line from Vegas however, Pitt is only a 4.5 point underdog right now against the 18th ranked Bruins.

So while the opt outs are notable on Pitt’s end of things, it has not made the Panthers decisive underdogs from a betting perspective either. UCLA has not had the same list of players dropping out of the game, but these point spreads usually have something to them.

Bowl games are unpredictable, and with each passing year have become less relevant. I like bowl season and I hope college football finds a way to keep players engaged in the future to keep the games entertaining, but that’s a topic for another day.

In Pitt’s case, we all know what is on the line. The Panthers can finish the year on a five-game winning streak and end with 9 victories. They have a chance to make it 20 wins over a two-year stretch as well, which would be the best this program has done over two seasons since 1982. And while there are some big names not playing, a lot of important players will be on the field, and it will also be an opportunity for some of the younger guys to prove themselves as they start preparing for next season.

December 30th will be a big day for Pitt sports. The basketball team hosts North Carolina at noon, and the football team plays at 2:00 p.m. in a rare double header.

We have a week until that all happens. Enjoy the holidays with friends and family, but of course we’ll still be talking Pitt sports all day, every day on Panther-Lair.com.