The 3-2-1 Column: Pitt goes for a championship on Saturday night

MORE HEADLINES - The Kenny Pickett Show, Ep. 17: Championship Week | Championship Week: An inside look at Wake Forest | Championship Week: Dorin Dickerson previews the ACC Championship Game | Who is Pitt targeting to finish the recruiting class of 2022? | Need to know: Everything to get ready for the ACC title game | Narduzzi on Wake Forest, the ACC title, Pitt's season and a lot more | Pitt leads the All-ACC teams | Pickett named ACC Player of the Year | PODCAST: Championship week edition

In this week’s 3-2-1 column, we are talking about a big weekend for the University of Pittsburgh. The Pitt football team has a big chance to take a big step in cementing its best season in a very long time as they play Wake Forest for the ACC Championship game on Saturday night.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

A different vibe than 2018
Pitt is gearing up to play in the ACC Championship game tomorrow night for the second time in program history, the first since 2018. A lot has changed from 2018 until now. The 2018 Pitt Panthers enjoyed a five-game conference game winning streak in the middle of the season and earned an ACC Coastal title, but with a 7-5 record and a 21-point loss to Miami to close out the season, the title run was a bit subdued heading into Charlotte.

Of course what faced that team in 2018 was a juggernaut as well. Clemson was ranked No. 2 in the country at that time, and in a sense that Pitt team probably just felt happy to be there as decided underdogs going into the matchup. The game went as expected. Clemson scored a 75-yard touchdown on the first play from scrimmage on the way to a 42-10 victory and they did not stop until they won the national title as well. Pitt, on the other hand, finished with a mere 7-7 record that year, an unfortunate end to the season for a division title winner.

Fast forward to 2021, and a lot has changed for not only Pitt, but the entire ACC. The Clemson powerhouse looked mortal this season, and a new champion will be crowned on Saturday night after a six-year run of dominance for the Tigers dating back to 2015.

Enter Pitt and Wake Forest, two unlikely stories in a wild, and unexpected 2021 college football season. While the stakes on Saturday do not feature a berth to the College Football Playoff, the chance to crowed conference champion is more than enough to get the juices flowing for two programs expected to finish fourth and fifth in their respective divisions at the start of the year.

Pitt’s tale is still being written, but if anything the 2021 season appears to be one that could bring a sense of change for this program so desperate to get out of the doldrums of mediocrity and back into the conversation of relevance in the college football hierarchy.

The Panthers enter Saturday’s game as the top-ranked team in the conference, 15th to be exact, in this week's College Football Playoff rankings. Pitt boasts one of the nation’s most electric offenses with arguably the best player in college football in Kenny Pickett, and perhaps its most explosive player in Jordan Addison.

Pitt’s season has not been perfect, and its struggles this season reflect the same setbacks this program has faced for decades, but rather than let losses to Western Michigan and Miami crumble their hopes, this group displayed a different sense of resolve than many prior Pitt teams have failed to do.

Pitt is not there yet, and by there I mean nationally relevant for more than just a season, but winning ten regular season games for the first time in 40 years, entering the ACC Championship game as the presumptive favorite, and having one of the sport’s premier players is as different a vibe this program has had in a long time.

Pitt needs to finish the job. They need this win to prove something not only college football, but to their fans and the city of Pittsburgh. There is an opportunity in this conference title game that was not there in 2018, and it’s all there for the taking for Pat Narduzzi's football team.

One last push for the Heisman
The voters for college football greatest honor have a penchant for falling for the best player - usually a quarterback - on one of the best two or three teams - usually Alabama. Well look at that, Alabama has a quarterback named Bryce Young, and he’s excellent. The sophomore quarterback has 3,901 yards and 40 touchdowns and the Crimson Tide are currently ranked third in the country. The name of the player changes, but the description rarely does. He’s great and deserving to be recognized as one of the best in college football, there is no denying it, but does he do more for his team than say…Kenny Pickett?

Not a chance.

The Pitt senior quarterback has put on an all-time great season, and if you are reading this, then I am sure you aware of that fact. He has 4,066 passing yards and 40 touchdowns, the only ACC quarterback to post those type of numbers in a 12-game season.

He’s already claimed ACC Player and Offensive Player of the Year awards. He’s a finalist for the Maxwell, Walter Camp, and Davey O’Brien trophies as well. Pickett has destroyed the single-season and all-time passing records at Pitt, surging past the legendary Dan Marino is just about every category along the way. He’s impacted his team more than any single player in college football has this season, while also posting better numbers than just about any other candidate for the Heisman as well.

He gets one more shot to prove himself worthy of college football’s top award on Saturday night. Ohio State’s CJ Stroud, Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker, and Ole Miss QB Matt Corral will all be at home watching the games on Saturday. Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson, while spectacular, has an uphill climb as a defensive player. And Young, well he has to deal with the best defense in the country in Georgia.

Pickett gets a spotlight game with the best chance to make a lasting impression on voters on Saturday night in primetime. Pitt gets Wake Forest on 8:00 tomorrow evening on ABC and the game will be opposite Michigan’s run at a Big Ten title against Iowa at the same start time. Given the expected outcome in the Big Ten game, and the chance of it being a defensive struggle to boot, if voters and the college football world want to see a true back and forth battle between two great quarterbacks and electric offenses, more eyes might shift towards the ACC Championship game and give Pickett that chance to make a name for himself dueling it out with Sam Hartman of Wake Forest.

Fast forward to next Saturday, when the Heisman Trophy is being presented on December 11th. Pickett should absolutely be one of the finalists in the room with his story being told and his season being celebrated. Will it result in Pitt’s second-ever Heisman winner? I’m not so sure, but he has the spotlight to make one final case tomorrow night and that’s all he, and Pitt can ask for this late in the season.

A big weekend for the athletic department
Football will always steal the spotlight in college athletics, especially at Pitt, but there are a lot of other things going on in the athletic department that are happening regularly now that were only pipe dreams a few short years ago.

The Pitt mens soccer team under the guidance of Jay Vidovich will head to South Bend on Saturday take on Notre Dame in the Elite 8 round of the NCAA Tournament for a 5:00 p.m. start.

The Panthers are the fifth overall seed, while the Fightin’ Irish are seeded fourth. Pitt brings a 13-5-1 record into the contest and they are coming off NCAA Tournament wins over Northern Illinois (5-2) and Hofstra (4-0). A win on Saturday would put Pitt in the College Cup (Final 4 in basketball terms) for the second season in a row.

Now let me put that into perspective a little bit more.

Pitt men’s soccer dates back to 1954. The NCAA Tournament started in 1959. Pitt has made the tournament just five times in program history, including the past three seasons under Vidovich. Pitt’s only made one College Cup, which happened to come last season. Now, they have a chance to advance to a second one in back-to-back years? It really is unheard of stuff for this university and program.

The volleyball program at Pitt does not sneak up on anyone anymore, and it’s worth noting this has become the top sports program at Pitt in recent seasons. The Panthers recently wrapped up a 26-3 regular season and were awarded the third overall seed in the NCAA Tournament that starts later today.

Dan Fisher’s team has now advanced to the NCAA Tournament six seasons in a row. The Panthers have gone from a feel good upstart program, to one of the nation’s elite and landing a national seed is a reflection of just that in this current six year run (and counting) of dominance. Pitt will host a regional today as it takes on UMBC at the Petersen Events Center. In the other game, Penn State takes on Towson. The winners are set to meet on Saturday, and assuming it’s Penn State, this regional bid Pitt earned is representative of how far this program has come. A few shorts years ago, Penn State was the hosting team in this round, while Pitt had to try to pull an upset on the road in State College. That change of venue speaks to what this program has accomplished in the past six year.

Pitt has two of its fall sports programs ranked among the top five in their respective sports competing for national championships this fall. Couple that with a nationally ranked football team going for an ACC title, you are seeing the growth of an entire athletic department that was stuck in the weeds for many years, to one that is capable of competing at the highest levels of the NCAA.

Call it competence from the athletic department, call it the benefits of joining the ACC - whatever it is, it’s working for Pitt right now after many years and decades of ineptitude.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What is Wake Forest all about?
Of course we are going to center things around Pitt, but Wake Forest is pretty good too, and they will resent a lot of challenge to Pitt on Saturday. So let’s talk about them for a minute. The Demon Deacons are enjoying a fairytale season of their own, one that mirrors Pitt in many ways.

Wake is led by head coach Dave Clawson, who has mostly hovered around 7 or 8 wins before the big breakout 10-win season in 2021....Sounds familiar.

Sam Hartman is a hard-nosed veteran quarterback that never seemingly had a big statistical season, until now. He has accounted for 44 touchdown and is enjoying one of the best seasons ever for a quarterback at his school....Also rings a bell.

The Demon Deacons were projected to finish fifth in the ACC Atlantic Division, before storming to a 10-2 record this season..OK, it’s getting a little uncanny.

The truth is that this Wake Forest team shares a lot of the same characteristics with Pitt, an unlikely division champion with a veteran team and a high-powered offense. The Demon Deacons are for real this season and they will present a great challenge to this Pitt defense. Hartman can spread it around with 3,700 passing yards, and can also make plays with his feet with 10 rushing touchdowns. Wake Forest is not a running team by nature, but like Pitt, they have three backs with over 400 rushing yards. Wake Forest has a pair of 1,000-yard receivers: AT Perry and Jaquarri Roberson. All in all, for a Pitt defense that struggles against RPOs and defending the pass in general, this Wake Forest offense can be a nightmarish opponent.

On the flip side, the Pitt offense should have some success. Wake Forest is ranked 100th in total defense, as they give up 427.1 yards per game and the defense surrenders 29.8 points per game (91st). So in true fashion everything on paper points to this game being the offensive shootout many are billing it to be.

One area where Pitt may be able to make up some ground and slow down this team is with its pass rush, Pitt is second in the country in sacks and Hartman has been sacked 10 times in the past two games, including seven against Clemson. Perhaps if there is any spot Pitt can get to this team, it’s with a heavy dose of pressure from the front seven.

Can Pitt’s run game be a factor?
Wake Forest gives up 209.5 rushing yards a game, only 12 teams have surrendered more yards this season and only one ACC team (Virginia) is worse against the run than the Demon Deacons. Can Pitt take advantage? Maybe more importantly: will they take advantage?

In Wake Forest’s last loss this season, which came to Clemson back on November 20th, the Tigers gashed this defense for 333 rushing yards in a commanding 48-27 win. That’s the second stat from that game I have mentioned that sort of seems like a blueprint (7 sacks) in beating this Wake Forest team.

Wake Forest can’t stop the run. Period.

The problem here is that, Pitt likes to throw it more than running, The Panthers may also be without leading rusher Izzy Abanikanda, who did not even travel with the team to Syracuse last week. Throw in that shuffled offensive line with the injuries to Owen Drexel, Jake Kradel, and the off and on status of Gabe Houy - it might not be the team to try to run it down teams throats.

Or is it?

I think Pitt believes in its passing game fronted by Pickett and Addison, and they have every reason to do so, it’s one of the very best in college football. Still, there have been opportunities in recent games where it seems like the running game could have been used for Pitt to help close out games. The North Carolina and Virginia games both come to mind where it seems the offensive play calling got a little too overconfident in the pass when the simple play would have been to let guys like Rodney Hammond or Izzy Abanikanda just run the ball and keep the clock moving.

Pitt’s had four wins this season where they held the ball for over ten minutes of game clock in the fourth quarter. They got a lead and sat on it and kept the ball out of the other teams’ hands. There wasn’t anything the opponent could do to stop it and it was rather effective in closing out games.

Pitt is obviously going to let this game rest on Pickett’s shoulders, and I believe you have to live with what got you to this point, however you are facing a team that has shown very little ability to stop the run. If Pitt can get up a score or two and get the chance to ice this game away and keep Hartman and company off the field, this is the type of defense that will struggle in slowing that type of game plan down. Everyone expects the high-scoring offenses trading blows all game long, but Pitt has the personnel to slow this game down if they want, and I’m not sure Wake Forest has that same option going up against Pitt’s run defense. Just something to keep in mind.

ONE PREDICTION

Jared Wayne becomes the X-factor in Pitt’s win on Saturday
I’ve talked about Kenny Pickett, Jordan Addison, and the running game. Pitt has received strong production from its tight ends this season, but one player I see being a difference maker on Saturday is Jared Wayne and I think he will be one of the reasons Pitt comes out on top tomorrow.

Pitt’s bread and butter all season has been Pickett to Addison in the passing game, but there have been other big moments for other wide receivers this season as well. Before his injury, Taysir Mack had some monster games, including a 5-catch 92-yard first half against Miami before leaving the game after hurting his shoulder.

Wayne has had some big ones, too. In Pitt’s 28-7 victory over Virginia Tech this season, the big 6'3" receiver posted six catches for 94 yards and pulled down a sensational sideline catch as well as a 36-yard touchdown. Wayne provides something maybe other players in this offense can’t with his size and physicality, and he’s been overshadowed by a lot of the other players in this loaded offense. He is second on the team with 43 catches and 606 yards, but has had a quiet pair of games against Virginia and Syracuse in recent weeks and I think that changes on Saturday.

I think Wayne breaks out and makes some big plays against Wake Forest, and I think Pitt wins this game. It’s a two for one special, as I’m making two predictions here, but I truly think there’s an opportunity for Wayne to make some plays while the defense of Wake Forest keys in on Addison.

Jared Wayne scores two touchdowns, Pitt wins the ACC Championship, and the Panthers win 12 games in a season for the first time since 1976. That's my call.