In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we are talking all about the red hot Pitt basketball team. The Panthers just secured back-to-back wins over top 25 teams and they are starting to make some noise on the national level. Jeff Capel also secured his first commitment for the class of 2024 and there feels like there is momentum for this program coming from all angles.

The Pitt football team won the Sun Bowl in dramatic fashion over UCLA last week and we take a moment to recap how the season ended, and start taking an early look towards 2023.

But before we get into all of that, I want to make mention of Damar Hamlin. We all saw what happened on Monday night and we are sending all the well wishes and prayers to him and his family. We are all anxiously awaiting any news and updates about his status. Damar is a tremendous human being and a great representative of Pittsburgh and we’re all thinking of him during this difficult time.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Pitt basketball makes a statement
North Carolina and Virginia have both won national championships within the past six seasons. They were both picked near the top of the ACC prior this year. Simply put, these programs have been the class of the league recently, and Pitt just knocked them off in consecutive games to improve to 11-4 on the season and 4-0 in the ACC and put the league on notice that this team can play.

Pitt has not defeated two ranked opponents in back-to-back games since 2011, back when the Panthers were a regular top 25 team themselves. I don’t want to use the word, ‘back’ when describing what is transpiring this season, but it’s hard not to be impressed with how Jeff Capel has his team playing through 15 games.

Pitt has shown incredible resolve over the last two games, more than any team under Capel has displayed in his previous four seasons as head coach. In Pitt’s 74-72 win over North Carolina last Friday, Pitt trailed by nine points in the second half, but they buckled down and made a push. Blake Hinson came up with two big three-pointers late in the game, one that broke a 67-all tie, and senior guard Jamarius Burton was nearly unstoppable and posted a career-best 31 points over the Tar Heels.

Pitt’s win took on similar fashion on Tuesday night, but given the circumstances, it was probably even more impressive. Virginia’s ‘packline’ defense employed by head coach Tony Bennett has caused fits for many teams over the years, especially Pitt. The Panthers had lost eight straight games to the Cavaliers prior to Tuesday, and Virginia mounted a 12-point lead in the early stages in the second half, but then the scrappy Panthers found some magic.

Pitt pieced together a 14-0 run to erase the Cavaliers lead entirely. Later in the game, who else but Hinson drained a go-ahead 3-pointer to break a tie game. Unsung hero Federiko Federiko scored six points down the stretch, and the Pitt senior guards made their free throws to keep the lead out of reach.

Virginia doesn’t typically squander double digit second half leads, but Pitt found a way, and this team continues to do it night after night. The Panthers are rolling right now, and there really is no other way to put it. It is near the midway point of the college basketball season, and Pitt is right there, but of course there is still a long way to go before March.

Capel lands No. 1 for the class of 2024
The feel good of Pitt’s back-to-back top 25 wins continued on Wednesday morning when 2024 three-star guard Brandin Cummings committed to the Panthers. Cummings is a 6’3” guard out of Lincoln Park Charter in Beaver County. If the name sounds familiar, Pitt’s newest commitment is indeed the younger brother of Pitt starting point guard Nelly Cummings.

The younger Cummings is a junior for Lincoln Park, perhaps the best basketball team in Western Pennsylvania this season. He is averaging 25 points per game and his team is off to a 7-0 start. Cummings shares the backcourt with 2025 five-star recruit Meleek Thomas, who has been a fixture around the Pitt program this season. Thomas has taken in both of Pitt’s big wins from the Petersen Events Center in the past week and landing his teammate certainly can’t hurt Pitt’s chances in that recruitment.

In addition to the commitment Wednesday, Pitt’s 2023 recruiting efforts are already off to a strong start. The class is currently headlined by four-star guards Carlton Carrington and Jaland Lowe, as well as three-star wing Marlon Barnes. Getting Cummings on board early gives Jeff Capel an early leg up in the 2024 class.

Landing Cummings is also important on a different level. He is a local and Pitt really hasn’t landed too many of those lately. Ryan Luther and Cameron Johnson are the last two WPIAL basketball players to sign with Pitt and that was back in 2014.

Following his commitment, Cummings spoke to Panther-Lair.com and detailed why he made his decision.

“I chose Pitt because it’s just home to me,” Cummings said. “And I really believe in Coach Capel and what he’s doing for the program and the city of Pittsburgh.”

To me, that quote is a good sign. We already mentioned how Meleek Thomas has been hanging around at some games, and fellow 2025 five-star Alier Maluk from Imani Christian has been doing the same. Pittsburgh is not usually a hotbed for Division-1 talent, but landing and cultivating relationships with the best local players early on is important for the Pitt program. Capel and his staff are doing a good job with that and the early returns have been positive.

Pitt ended the year on a high note
It has been a week, but we certainly need to discuss what happened last Friday in El Paso for the football program. The Pitt Panthers upset No. 18 UCLA 37-35 in dramatic fashion on a last second field goal by Ben Sauls to win the Sun Bowl.

The victory improved Pitt’s record to 9-4 on the season, and the Panthers ended the year strong with a five-game winning streak. Pitt has now won 20 games over a two-year period for the first time since 1982. The final AP poll should come out next week following the national championship game between Georgia and TCU, and there is a good chance Pitt sneaks into the last set of rankings.

Given that Pitt was sitting at a 4-4 crossroads at the end of October, the way this team closed the year was rather impressive. Pitt has not finished the year ranked in consecutive seasons since 1982-83 and to notch that milestone given where this season started is very commendable.

The win over UCLA in particular certainly says a lot about where the program is these days. Pitt played without eight starters in the Sun Bowl, whether that was due to opt-outs or injuries. All-American players like Israel Abanikanda and Calijah Kancey did not take the field, but Pitt found other contributors to get it done against a UCLA team that was nearly at full strength. The Bruins completely expected to win last week and it showed in the pregame, and that mindset persisted throughout. UCLA grabbed a 28-14 lead early in the second half, and after a big Pitt surge, they reclaimed the advantage with :34 seconds remaining.

Pitt found a way to win however, behind a gutsy effort from Nick Patti, who was making just his third career start in five years with the program. He drove down the field and gave Pitt a shot at a game winning field goal. The odds were stacked against this team, not only to beat the Bruins last Friday under those circumstances, but also to close the year with five straight wins. In each instance, they found a way to do it, as improbable as it was.

There is a lot to be said to finish the year with a win. We can talk about the meaning of bowl games, but however you feel about the current landscape of the college football postseason, when you end the year with a win, you start the offseason with some set of confidence…

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What will the 2023 team look like?
…So how about the 2023 Pitt football team? It is never too early to start looking ahead, and I think it’s fair to start to wonder where the expectations lie for this program as we enter the offseason stage of the college football calendar.

I will say this, by Pitt having so many players ‘opt out’ of the Sun Bowl, the team we saw beat UCLA last week is at least a rough draft or a starting point for what the team will look like going into 2023.

There are still some lingering questions that need answered this offseason. I think the status of some seniors remains up in the air. We know Jared Wayne, Jake Kradel, Marquis Williams, and a few others have choices to make. It’s not a matter of leaving early, but rather if they want to come back for a sixth year. I think those questions will start to get answered here soon, but for now I think we have a general idea of how to start breaking down this 2023 Pitt team.

The first thing is quarterback, and for the second straight year the Panthers have turned to the transfer portal to fill the starting job. I think Phil Jurkovec’s story is well documented from his time as a high school recruit in Pittsburgh up through his successful 2020 season at Boston College with Frank Cignetti Jr. as his offensive coordinator. From a Pitt perspective, if the 2021 season taught us anything, it’s probably best to have tempered expectations with transfer quarterbacks. That is not to say Phil Jurkovec can’t have a breakout senior year, but the tale of Kedon Slovis is fresh on the mind, and his transfer story did not go as panned.

Rodney Hammond will likely assume the role as the starting tailback and Pitt should be in good hands there. He has 963 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns in his two year career. Hammond started two games during Pitt’s five-game winning streak and rushed for 217 yards and three scores against Syracuse and UCLA. There may not be the explosive factor in Hammond’s game that Izzy Abanikanda had, but he’s solid and will get the yards in front of him.

Pitt’s receivers will remain a question until we know what Wayne intends to do, but they do return Bub Means and Konata Mumpfield. I think both players showed down the stretch, especially in the bowl game, that they are capable of making plays. The same could be said with tight end Gavin Bartholomew, but Pitt needs to find more ways to get him involved.

At the start of the 2022 season, it was expected Pitt would start five seniors on the offensive line. Injuries happened during the 2022 season, and all of the sudden Pitt could have a very experienced line yet again in 2023. Matt Goncalves and Branson Taylor will be back at tackle, while Blake Zubovic and Kradel could very well return to anchor the interior portion of the line.

The defensive line has always been well stocked at Pitt under Charlie Partridge, but in 2023 the depth and the recruiting will be put to the test. Pitt could return David Green, Tyler Bentley, and Devin Danielson, but it’s probably about time we see Elliot Donald and some younger guys get some more playing time in the interior. The ends will be anchored by Dayon Hayes, and perhaps younger players like Samuel Okunlola and Nahki Johnson will start to emerge. There is talent in this room, but a lot of it is unproven.

Pitt will bring back starters Shayne Simon and Bangally Kamara at linebacker, and Solomon DeShields could be primed for a starting role for the first time. Kamara played well in the bowl game, and could take the next step in his progression in 2023.

The secondary could get Marquis Williams back at corner, but if not MJ Devonshire and AJ Woods have played a ton of football. The Panthers will miss Erick Hallett and Brandon Hill, but Javon McIntyre showed some promise late in the year, PJ O’Brien has been getting snaps for two seasons, and of course the addition of Donovan McMIllon back there is a big boost.

I would say the 2023 Pitt football team is not complete yet, and being that it is only January 6th, that’s not a surprise. Pitt has been active in the transfer portal, and could look to add another receiver or two, and again will be awaiting word on some of the seniors.

Even taking all that into consideration, as a loose starting point in early January, this team has a lot of experience coming back for next season. Pitt will need some younger players to step up, but they aren’t going into 2023 completely green either.

The ACC is changing next year. The two division format is going away, but even with that change, Clemson’s total stranglehold over the league may be losing its tight grip.

There are other teams in the league that can absolutely push the Tigers for a conference title in 2023, but they need to prove it. Pitt is the only team in the conference other than Clemson to win the league in the past eight seasons, but Florida State is starting to show signs of life again, Drake Maye is back leading North Carolina as a potential Heisman favorite, and there are some new coaching hires in the league that could impact the standings as well.

The league should be a bit more wide open in 2023, and Pitt has plenty of experience to make a push, but we will need to see how all the new parts come together for Pat Narduzzi’s program.

All of this is admittedly a lot to think about given that the current season is not over until Monday night. I just always expected Pitt’s 2023 season to be more of a rebuild, but the more I think about it, this is a team gearing up to compete again. Pitt will have multiple starters back, they added a veteran quarterback, and there won’t be as much hype or fanfare like last offseason, but the team won’t be viewing this upcoming year as a rebuild either.

There is a lot that can and will happen before the team heads to training camp in August, but the early outlook for the 2023 team on paper is maybe a bit better than a lot of us expected.

Can John Hugley regain his form?
There have been a lot of surprises about Pitt’s 2022-23 season to this point. The Panthers were picked to finish 14th in the league, but through four conference games the team is tied for first place. Of course we all know it is still early to really put value on the standings and there is a lot of basketball yet to be played, but Pitt is certainly exceeding all expectations at the halfway point of the season.

I do believe Jeff Capel and his staff felt like they put together a good roster for this year, so while outsiders may be a bit surprised by this early play, I think internally Pitt felt guys like Nelly Cummings and Blake Hinson would make huge impacts this season and they certainly have.

The biggest surprise about Pitt’s resurgence this season is that John Hugley has had very little to do with it. As a sophomore, Hugley led the team in scoring (14.8) and rebounding (7.9) and was by far Pitt’s best player. He was an All-ACC honorable mention pick, and many felt Hugley could take it a step further as a junior.

As we all know, Hugley injured his knee in the preseason. He missed time at the start of the season as he was recovering from that, but once he returned to action the Pitt center hardly looked like himself. The story got a bit more confusing after that. Hugley has missed the last four games as to what has been deemed ‘personal reasons’ by the Pitt program.

The situation has been tough to get a read on, because Hugley has been on the bench the last four games, but has not taken the floor. Capel said after the first game he missed, the reason for Hugley’s absence was not disciplinary, academic, or injury related. Pitt has been playing this thing close to the vest, and I don’t want to speculate on it too much, but in any event I get the sense Hugley will be returning to the team shortly. He has been practicing and could even be available for Saturday’s game with Clemson.

Obviously if Pitt can get anything close to last year’s version of Hugley, it would be a big boost, but also if Pitt can just get 8-10 minutes and have an extra big body inside, that would be helpful as well. I think the current team has found a bit of connection with one another, and Federiko Federiko has been a big surprise filling in as the starter down low. He meshes into what this team likes to do because he does not really need paint touches to be effective, and the rebounding, rim running, and hedging on defense he is able to do is perfect for what this team needs.

Having said that, Pitt’s depth is going to get tested eventually. Pitt is really only playing one player off the bench regularly right now in Nike Sibande. The Diaz Graham twins, particularly Jorge, have contributed some, but that has been about it. As the 16 ACC games in front of them take place, they are going to need more than a six, sometimes seven man rotation.

Pitt has a good thing going right now, but over the course of a 31-game regular season schedule, there are going to be injuries and some games there will be foul trouble. Hugley has performed at a high level before, and any help he can provide will only enhance this team’s push to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt beats Clemson on Saturday
With all due respect to North Carolina and Virginia, Pitt’s game with Clemson might be the biggest and most challenging during this three-game home stand. The Clemson Tigers have an identical 4-0 ACC record as Pitt, and Saturday’s game will be for sole possession of first place in the league. Neither team is in the top 25, but you would have to imagine the winner will crack the rankings next week.

Saturday’s game at the Petersen Events Center is another big one for this team, even if it is still early January with 15 games after this one for the Panthers. Clemson has a good team with senior Hunter Tyson averaging 15 and 10 this season. PJ Hall has been a consistent presence for two seasons inside and Chase Hunter is one of the league’s top outside shooters at 44%.

The thing with Clemson under head coach Brad Brownell is that they have been solid, yet unspectacular. He has guided the Tigers to the NCAA Tournament three times in the previous 12 seasons, but they have completely owned Pitt.

Pitt has not defeated Clemson since March 8, 2014, the first season the Panthers were in the ACC. Pitt has lost nine consecutive games against the Tigers. Not only that, the last six meeting have been total blowouts as well, with Clemson’s average margin of victory at 18.8.

Pitt has obviously been down as a program for the last six years, but Clemson hasn’t exactly been a powerhouse either, but for whatever reason this has consistently been a bad matchup for the Panthers.

I think that changes on Saturday.

I believe Pitt will beat Clemson to snap that nine-game losing streak against the Tigers and improve to 5-0 in the ACC. The Panthers have been playing good basketball, and most impressively, they are finding ways to win close games. Clemson is certainly a tough matchup, but Pitt is starting to play well at the Petersen Events Center, and that place is start to become the old homeport advantage it used to be.