The 3-2-1 Column: Just watch basketball
MORE COVERAGE FROM PITT'S WIN OVER WAKE FOREST:
- Capel, Carrington and Hinson after the win
- Locker room reaction: Leggett, Austin, Diaz Graham and Lowe
- The Morning Pitt: Moving on to the semifinals
- Leggett looked right at home in Pitt's win
- The Panther-Lair Post-Game: Pitt knocks off Wake Forest in quarterfinals
In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about Pitt's win over Wake Forest, facing North Carolina, the value of just watching basketball and a lot more.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
Just Watch Basketball
Something beautiful happened yesterday afternoon.
No, I’m not talking about Ishmael Leggett’s take-over performance or Bub Carrington’s masterful defense or Blake Hinson’s somehow quiet 20 points or all of the other impressive things Pitt did in beating Wake Forest 81-69 in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals.
I mean, I am talking about those things. But the truly beautiful thing that happened - at least as beautiful as any of those others things - was something that didn’t happen.
Something we didn’t have to do.
We didn’t have to talk about NET rankings or non-conference strength of schedule or the bubble or bracketology or any of that.
Finally, after no less than five days of allowing those things to take up way too much brain space, we got to set them all aside for two beautiful hours and Just Watch Basketball.
Novel concept, that one.
Watching basketball.
It’s kind of amazing what happens when you Just Watch Basketball. You see a team for what it is, how it’s playing and what it can do at its best (and its worst). You don’t have to worry about what that team did in November or who they played or who they beat.
All that matters is what they’re doing right now. What they’re doing in the moment. What they’re doing on the current possession that’s happening at this very point in time.
When you Just Watch Basketball, the only thing you have to think about is how the two teams you’re watching are playing basketball. So yesterday, during those two beautiful hours when we could set all of the nonsense aside and Just Watch Basketball, we could focus on how much energy and intensity both Pitt and Wake Forest brought from the very start. We could focus on how well the Panthers were defending the Deacons, particularly first-team All-ACC selection Hunter Sallis. We could focus on how Leggett was the best player on the court. We could focus on how Hinson just snuck up and drained four three’s on his way to 20 points.
We could focus on basketball because, free of all the interminable talking points, all we had to do was Just Watch Basketball.
And I think a funny thing happens when you Just Watch Basketball. When you Just Watch Basketball, you realize that maybe scheduling practices and games in November don’t carry quite as much weight as you thought they did. When you Just Watch Basketball, you start thinking more about how good a team is than who they beat four months ago (or even who they played four months ago, win or loss).
When you Just Watch Basketball, it occurs to you that the thing that makes the NCAA Tournament great is putting 68 deserving teams into a giant bowl, shaking them up and seeing what rolls out.
There are 36 teams that will earn at-large bids in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. And if you Just Watch Basketball, I don’t see how you can look at Pitt and not think the Panthers deserve one of those 36 spots. You just can’t convince me there are 36 teams that are more deserving.
You can’t.
And if there’s someone who is convinced of that, I would suggest that they…
Well, you know.
Winning with defense
It’s funny to say after a game when Pitt won a game by getting into the 80’s for the fourth game in a row, but the Panthers got over on Wake Forest with defense.
There’s no doubt that Leggett’s 30 and Hinson’s 20 and Jaland Lowe’s 11/4/5 stat line and Guillermo Diaz Graham’s big nine points were important. Those contributions were all critical to the win.
But Pitt won Thursday’s game with defense. That might seem like a tough sell when Wake Forest shot 46% for the game and scored 43 points in the second half while shooting 50% after halftime. But I don’t think there’s any question that defense had as much to do with that win as anything.
Hunter Sallis is a great example. His 15 points were below his season average, but that’s not what stands out to me. And while five made field goals is on the low side for him, it’s not drastically so.
What stands out to me is the field goal attempts. Sallis had nine shots; in 32 previous games this season, he attempted less than 10 shots just four times.
Thursday’s game made it five, and that’s what was really remarkable to me:
It wasn’t necessarily that Sallis was missing shots; it was that he wasn’t even shooting in the first place. That was a testament to the defensive performances of Bub Carrington and Ishmael Leggett.
Even more, it was a testament to the defensive intensity of those two guys, because they gave Sallis everything he could handle - and even some that he couldn’t handle, as evidenced by his five turnovers.
No matter what Wake Forest did to get scoring opportunities for Sallis, Carrington and Leggett denied him. Some of it was the game plan, but more of it was the pure energy from Pitt’s guards.
Sallis was one of the best players in the ACC this season, but Carrington and Leggett were determined not to let him take over the game. And while he did, at one point, take over the game, it was well into the second half before it happened.
In the first half, Sallis had virtually no success. In fact, that could be said for pretty much all of Wake Forest’s roster. The Deacons made 11 baskets in the first half, but four of them came on fast breaks from turnovers; in the half-court offense, Wake Forest only made seven field goals.
Once again, Pitt’s energy and intensity on defense made the difference.
And that’s encouraging to me for the Panthers’ chances going forward (regardless of how many games they get to play). I believe this team can score against most teams on most nights. I believe they can get into the mid 70’s or even the 80’s against North Carolina tonight. I don’t know if they will or not; after all, they scored 57 the last time the two teams met, although I would contend that was a very different Pitt team.
Still, I believe the Panthers can score like that. What’s up in the air is the question of whether Pitt can defend well enough. And if the Panthers do pull off the upset of the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament, it will likely come from their defense.
One of the weapons will always emerge
Of course, no matter how much we want to - and should - talk about Pitt’s defense against Wake Forest, there’s no denying it:
Ishmael Leggett played one hell of a game.
The game of his lifetime. And if not for his teammate scoring 41 in a game, it would have been the best single-game performance by a Pitt player this season.
As it stands, it was the second-best bench performance in Pitt history, the most points by a bench player in an ACC Tournament game since 2017 and the second 30-point performance by a Panther in an ACC Tournament game ever.
Oh, and he set a Pitt ACC Tournament record with five steals.
He was great, and whether it was the heightened tension of the setting or playing in front of a hometown crowd, Leggett was on fire pretty much from the start. He drained his first shot - a three-pointer four minutes into the game - and then followed a missed three with a pair of two’s: a drive and a long jumper.
Leggett finished the first half with 11 points and then really put on a show in the second half, scoring 19 points on 6-of-10 shooting and a perfect 6-of-6 from the free throw line.
Okay, enough about that. You watched the game. You know the stat line. You know all the big baskets Leggett made and how he bullied his way to the hoop time and again.
Here’s my point:
You never know who’s going to step up in any given game. You only know that somebody is probably going to do it.
Blake Hinson is a pretty sure thing. He has led Pitt in scoring 15 times this season and has scored in double figures in 28 out of 32 games.
But then there’s Bub Carrington. He has been the Panthers’ leading scorer nine times and has hit double figures 22 times.
As for Leggett, Thursday was just the third time he has been Pitt’s leading scorer, but it was the 23rd time he has scored 10 or more in a game.
Jaland Lowe has led the team in scoring twice and has 16 double-figure games. Guillermo Diaz Graham and Zack Austin have each led Pitt in scoring, too, and they’ve combined for 15 double-digit games.
When you face Pitt, you can count on Hinson getting his. But the question is, who else is going to go off? Because it’s a pretty safe bet that one of those guys - especially Leggett, Carrington or Lowe - is going to do it.
Maybe two or three of them.
After all, Hinson, Leggett, Carrington and Lowe have combined for 89 double-digit scoring games this season. That means, on average, 2.78 per game - just from those four guys.
And that is one of the things that makes this team so dangerous. They have so many ways to attack.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
Does this season show that the success can be sustained?
Entering this season, one of the biggest questions was whether the success of the 2022-23 season could be sustained.
Jeff Capel and company had finally broken through last year with 24 wins and a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but could they do it again? Could they carry that success forward?
It was one thing to bring in four impact transfers and win with a bunch of senior guards. But the coaches had to start over this season. Sure, they had Hinson returning and they brought back the centers, but there were big questions about how the freshmen and transfers would play. Could they achieve at the same level as Nelly Cummings and Jamarius Burton and the rest?
That seemed like a tall order. And yet, here we are. Pitt finished higher in the ACC, produced the same overall record and put up some signature wins. Along the way, the two freshmen developed into big-time players, Hinson took his game to another level and the transfers - particularly Leggett - more than filled the roles left vacant by last year’s seniors.
But you know what was the secret ingredient? You know what made it all come together and work?
It was the culture.
I mean, it was the players, for sure; those guys are really talented and you can’t win without talented players. But we’ve seen talented Pitt teams in the past fail to capitalize on their talent. Capel’s first four teams had talent, but they were missing that key piece, that extra factor that brings it all together.
Last year’s team had it. For the first time under Capel, the locker room and the bonds among the players were strengths of the team. So when they got down, they knew they could rely on each other to get back up. Nobody had to be the hero; each guy just had to do his part, fill his role, and the team would elevate as a result.
That was a huge breakthrough for Capel and his time at Pitt. But could they do it again?
Turns out, that answer was yes.
Because what was established last year has carried over to this year. Maybe it’s returning players like Hinson and Federiko Federiko and Guillermo Diaz Graham setting the tone. Maybe it’s the character of the players Capel brought in this year. Maybe Capel himself learned something about how to manage the team last year.
Whatever it is, there’s something established in Pitt’s locker room.
A way of doing things.
A way of being a team.
Last year’s group had it. This year’s group has it. And I’m willing to bet that next year’s group will have it, too.
So to answer the question that started this column:
Does this season show that the success can be sustained?
I think the answer is a resounding yes.
2022-23 vs 2023-24?
This is one of those useless exercises that are nonetheless fun to engage in from time to time (and it’s the one section of this column I wrote prior to Thursday’s game).
If last year’s team faced this year’s team, who would win?
It’s kind of entertaining to envision. For starters, there are some doubles facing off: Hinson vs. Hinson, Federiko vs. Federiko and Guillermo vs. Guillermo. Or, in some cases, Federiko vs. Guillermo. And on occasion, this year’s Guillermo vs. last year’s Hinson.
Now that would be interesting. Guillermo’s length at the three-point line against Hinson’s willingness to shoot from wherever. I don’t know if many teams have put that kind of size on Hinson, so that could be a unique challenge, but at the same time, I think Hinson could bully Guillermo pretty good, so I don’t think the coaches would go for that matchup.
Will Jeffress on Hinson, though - now that would be an interesting matchup.
But let’s be honest: the real intrigue is in the backcourt.
Jamarius Burton, Nelly Cummings, Greg Elliott and Nike Sibande vs. Bub Carrington, Jaland Lowe, Ishmael Leggett and Zack Austin
Right off the bat, I’m struck by how different those two lineups are. Burton/Carrington and Cummings/Lowe are probably the comparable pairings, but Elliott/Sibande and Leggett/Austin are two very different sets of players.
Let’s start with the top two guards for each team. The first thing that jumps out to me is the sheer speed and explosiveness. Carrington and Lowe have a lot more of it than Burton and Cummings. The latter duo has experience and veteran savvy, of course, but the ability to blow past a defender and finish with a layup or a jump shot can make up for a lot of that.
I really don’t know how the coaches of the 2022-23 team would order those matchups. Maybe they would put Sibande and Burton on Lowe and Carrington; that might work. But then you’re leaving Cummings or Elliott to guard Leggett in the three-guard lineups, and at some point, the 2023-24 team’s explosiveness at guard is going to break through.
And that’s to say nothing of guarding Austin. He’s not regularly featured in the offensive sets - he gets more of his production from chaos situations - but this hypothetical scenario is going to leave him with a pretty favorable matchup.
There are other questions around the court, of course. Hinson has added some new elements to his game this season; how would 2022-23 Hinson defend some of the things 2023-24 Hinson has been doing? And while neither version of Federiko presents much of an offensive threat, 2022-23 Federiko would face an interesting challenge guarding 2023-24 Guillermo out to the arc.
Ultimately, though, it will be a matchup of the guards. Do you take the wily veterans or the explosive youth? I don’t want to give in to recency bias or pretend like Burton and Cummings weren’t great for Pitt last year, but I think I’m leaning toward Lowe and Carrington. I think if Lowe gets matched up on Cummings, I’m not sure the vet can really guard the freshman, and that would make the difference in the game.
ONE PREDICTION
Pitt will make the Tournament
What the hell - let’s just go for it. Let’s just make this prediction right now. I’ll either be right or I’ll be wrong, and I’m not too concerned about it either way.
If I’m right, we get to watch this team play more games. If I’m wrong, we get to complain about it.
It’s not quite a win-win, but it will do.
Listen, set aside the other stuff, all the reasons people come up with for teams to make or not make the NCAA Tournament. At the risk of sounding myopic (which I am) and focusing solely on Pitt (which I do), I just wonder why we can’t ask a simple question:
Who are the best teams?
You have the 32 automatic qualifiers. Those teams make it, and that’s easy. But for the other 36 spots, it seems to me that we should be asking that basic question.
Who are the best teams?
And if we genuinely ask that question and we relate it to Pitt, I can’t help but think the answer is clear:
Pitt is one of those best “other” 36 teams.
I mean, maybe they win tonight and tomorrow night and it doesn’t matter. That would be pretty cool. But if they can’t upset North Carolina and they’re left swinging in the wind of the bubble, it comes back to that question:
Are the Panthers one of the best “other” 36 teams?
I think you know where I stand.
Listen, I know I’ve said I’m not going to spend any more time thinking about bracketology or things like that, but I’m making this exception. And I’m making this exception as a way of holding out hope - hope that a genuinely good basketball team with genuinely good players and a genuinely good record littered with genuinely good wins will be chosen to play in an event that is, ostensibly, designed to put the best basketball teams together for a one-and-done tournament.
Such a tournament, if it is truly intended to feature the best teams that have had the best seasons, has to include Pitt. It just does.
So I’m predicting this, not just because it would be fun to watch this team play again, but because I want to believe that the NCAA Tournament really is about getting the best teams together, and that a room full of smart people won’t get so far inside their own heads - or other areas - as to let games from November outweigh the last two-plus months of basketball.
Do you want the Tournament to feature the best teams? Then Pitt should make it.