The 3-2-1 Column: Addison fallout, basketball commitments, and more

MORE HEADLINES - PODCAST: Addison, NIL, transfers and more | 2024 four-star safety Boatwright surprised by Pitt offer | Diaz Graham twins find the 'perfect fit' | A closer look at Pitt's new commits | Wayne, Mumpfield expected to anchor new-look WR room | Pitt offers 2024 four-star DE Edwards | Western Pa. countdown: Who are the top prospects in the class of 2023?

In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we discuss the Jordan Addison saga from this past week and the fallout from his decision to enter the transfer portal. Pitt football also landed a pretty big commitment in the past week that may have gotten lost in the headlines. Jeff Capel also secured a big recruiting win(s) as well.

Plenty to discuss in a rather eventful week in Pitt athletics.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Jordan Addison is in the transfer portal
It has been one week since the rumors started to swirl around Pitt wide receiver Jordan Addison potentially entering the transfer portal, and it sure feels like this story has been around a lot longer than that given the complexity of the situation and the discourse that it brought along with it.

Addison, the reigning Biletnikoff Award winner, officially had his name entered in the transfer portal on Tuesday after five days of speculation surrounding the star receiver.

Addison was a consensus All-American in 2021 for Pitt. He helped lead the team to its first-ever ACC Championship by catching 100 passes for 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns as a sophomore. Addison was expected to be a key cog in Pitt’s title defense in 2022.

The star receiver went through spring camp with the Panthers. He had NIL deals set up with donors from Pitt. Nothing in the weeks leading up to last Friday suggested he was looking around at other schools, but it all changed in a hurry.

Nobody could have predicted the weekend of the transfer portal deadline that Addison would enter his name at the last second and leave Pitt, but that’s ultimately what happened and the fallout has brought on a whole different kind of discussion about the future of college sports.

Admittedly, it was a whirlwind few days covering and monitoring the situation, and a stunning change of events to not only the Pitt football program in the short term, but college football at large for the future. Less than a year into the new NIL rules, we saw the cataclysmic change to the sport many predicted would happen because of these new laws. The old rules, and whatever little structure college football previously had, is now seemingly gone. Players aren’t really bound by anything anymore, for better or worse.

This Addison situation in particular showed you can negotiate with outside parties before even entering the transfer portal. While third-parties contacting star players at other schools on scholarship isn’t against any rule yet, it feels like it is something college athletics may want to enforce a bit more to prevent these type of situations from happening further.

The spirit of the NIL, at least as it was presented initially, was for players to make some cash and not get in trouble for selling an autograph anymore. I’m not certain this was all implemented for schools with wealthy donors to buy players in the offseason, but hey more power to guys with money and for college athletes’ ability to receive it now.

Make no mistake, if Jordan Addison called me while he was mulling over his decision to leave Pitt, I would have advised him to take the million or so dollars rumored he was supposedly getting. I mean let’s be real, who tells someone to turn down that kind of money?

I digress, but however it shakes out from this point forward, college athletes now have the ability to seek out better opportunities with financial motivations while on scholarship at their current school. It is, after all, how the free market works in the rest of the world, right?

There are pros and cons to this new world. The one immediate fallout I see is that the whole obsession with the transfer that has come on in the past three years may go away. This could render the transfer portal useless really.

Why wait for a certain player to enter the portal? Just go get the guy you want instead.

College athletes generate millions of dollars for the schools they represent and the NCAA at large. They’ve likely always deserved a cut of that, but they still aren’t getting it. This money that is currently floating around star athletes isn’t part of the NCAA money machine. The millions of dollars that March Madness and bowl games bring in every year still isn’t going to the players, but rather the schools and the NCAA. They aren’t getting their fair cut yet from the entities that probably should be paying them.

Also, these aren’t the endorsements Kenny Pickett used last season like taking his linemen to a restaurant or driving a shiny new truck. This is simply fans of schools buying players because they can.

If there is ever going to be any semblance of a competitive balance for the future of college athletics, universities need to admit these star athletes are employees of the school and they get their cut from the university’s share. I don’t see how else this can really get fixed, and I’m not not sure if that is happening anytime soon either.

So is this whole thing what we wanted? Is that what is best for the sport? I’m not certain it is, but I’m not sure how they stuff the genie back into the bottle, either.

The free one-time transfer thing likely isn’t going away. Proving tampering is going on will be a tough thing to tackle, despite talks of cracking down on that already happening. We’re entering a time in history where situations like Addison’s are going to be commonplace I think.

His story from the start was largely tied to USC as many expected him to leave for the Trojans in one fell swoop. That might not happen now. He’s in the transfer portal, and can look around at all of his options, which is technically the procedure of how it is supposed to happen.

However it shakes out, I get the frustrations of Pitt fans right now. They’ve been on the butt end of this topic since it emerged last week, and a lot of national media members seem to be obtuse to why you, Pitt fans, are a little ticked off at the situation.

I think free player movement is a good thing, especially as long as head coaches can jump from million dollar contracts in the offseason without any repercussions. I believe players having the ability to grab some endorsement deals is also a step in the right direction for what was a backwards system for so long.

I am just not sure outside parties tampering with star athletes out in the open from other programs under the guise of NIL collectives is the right thing for the sport. It benefits the players, sure, and that’s great for them, but I think it hurts the overall product of the sport and the fan interest surrounding it, even if the old setup was already geared towards a few select college programs anyway. This only furthers that.

Jordan Addison is not a Pitt Panther anymore, and that is the immediate takeaway from all of this. What happens next, if anything at all, is going to be one of the most important decisions the NCAA and its member institutions will ever have to make for the future of college athletics.

Capel landed a pair of commitments this week
On a much lighter note, Pitt basketball had a solid week after securing commitments from Jorge and Guillermo Diaz Graham. The Diaz Graham twins are two lengthy forwards that should provide versatility and size to the team right away. They are natives of the Canary Islands and played this past season at IMG Academy.

After only one year in the United States, the twins generated some interest from numerous college programs, but Pitt was one of the few schools that was pursuing both as a package deal, and that helped them win out in the end.

Panther-Lair.com's Houston Wilson caught up with both players after their commitment, and the allure of playing in the ACC was key to them in their decision.

“It was a really tough decision because the other schools we were thinking about were great too,” Guillermo said. “Being able to play in the ACC is big-time and that is something we could not turn down.”

Jorge added, “The ACC has a lot of good coaches and great players and a lot of potential NBA players so it is going to be hard for us at first especially because of our physicality but we are going to work on that right away and I think once we get our bodies right, we can make a good impact in the ACC.”

What it means is that Pitt is getting two forwards around 7-feet tall that can play an inside/outside game and should be able to contribute this season, though both are on the thin side as Jorge alluded to in that interview. Despite their height, neither player is a center in the sense that John Hugley is, but rather they are forwards that can step out and knock down shots and are both noted as good passers.

They are comfortable on the perimeter, which is a bit unique to most of the forwards Pitt has had lately. The style of game in college basketball has changed in the last decade or so, and the Diaz Graham twins are likely the first players Pitt has had with the length, size, and a flair of European style to their games.

“Guillermo has legit NBA range from three,” IMG assistant coach Jimmy Carr said in an interview with Panther-Lair.com. “He is a great passer as he really has a good feel for the game.”

Pitt hosted both players for an official visit back in April, and secured commitments from them, despite some projections of them to land with Frank Martin at UMass as recently as the beginning of this week. It was a much needed recruiting win for Jeff Capel and his staff, as Pitt continues to try to add as much talent around Hugley and the returning core before the start of next season.

Kenny Minchey got lost in the shuffle
Kenny Minchey committed to Pitt last weekend, and frankly I don’t think that story was given its due. The commitment came on Friday and Minchey revealed his decision on Saturday, at the height of the Jordan Addison saga. Minchey himself does not appear to be one that likes the attention of the recruiting process, as he has done limited interviews throughout his recruitment, but still this commitment got lost because of the other story that was surrounding Pitt at the time.

Minchey is a 6’3” quarterback out of Hendersonville, Tennessee. He is graded as a three-star prospect according to Rivals.com and held offers from programs like Houston, Michigan State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia. Pitt has only landed one high school quarterback in the last three recruiting cycles, so picking up Minchey early on was a good, and maybe a little unexpected win for the coaching staff.

Minchey threw for 3,280 yards and 32 touchdowns as a junior. He became Pitt’s second recruit of the 2022 class, joining three-star receiver Zion Fowler. The Tennessee native visited Pitt for a spring practice, and that played a key role in his decision.

“I visited there about three weeks ago and fell in love with the place and how they treated me and how much of a priority I was by listening to them talk to me,” he told Panther-Lair.com. “Coach Cignetti, their new offensive coordinator, he has a bunch of NFL experience and I would love to coached by someone with that type of experience so I can get prepared for the next level.”

I think it’s a fairly significant deal that picked up a solid prospect last week, and of course him playing the most important position on the field only adds to it. Pitt’s quarterback recruiting strategy likely took a step back after they switched from Mark Whipple to Cignetti this offseason and the quarterback board ultimately changed because of it. Pitt did not host many quarterbacks in the spring despite Cignetti’s efforts to offer a bunch of quarterbacks, albeit jumping in late on many of them.

On paper, Minchey looks like a solid prospect with upside. He also looks like he can be an asset in recruiting as well. Quarterbacks tend to commit early to find a landing spot, and also to also become a leader for the class. We already saw Ayden Greene place Pitt in his top five this week in the aftermath. The two know each other as natives of Tennessee and the thought of playing together is appealing to the the three-star receiver prospect. Whether they land Greene or not, isn’t the story per se, but that is an example of what having a quarterback committed early can do for recruiting. Minchey will be at Pitt’s first big official visit weekend in June, and he will likely be part of the effort with the coaches to lock down more commitments while he is in town.

In a week that was dominated by one set of headlines, it shouldn’t be dismissed Pitt landed a good recruit that plays the most important position on the field, either.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

How will the offense look without Addison?
The Pitt football team had one of its most productive offenses in school history in 2021. Behind the play of Kenny Pickett, the Panthers broke numerous school records on offense. Of course, Pickett is now out of eligibility as he moves next door to play for the Steelers. Mark Whipple left for Nebraska to be their offensive coordinator, so two of the key components from last year’s offense were already out the door, and now you can add Jordan Addison to the list.

Pitt’s offense was likely going to look different before the Addison departure. Frank Cignetti has different philosophies than Whipple used, and losing Pickett was going to alter things as well.

So now what does this whole thing look like?

It think it all starts with the offensive system. Like Whipple, Cignetti has a background in coaching quarterbacks and has pro-style concepts in everything that he does. That much shouldn’t change, but I do think he will have an added emphasis on running the ball more than Whipple ever did, and the personnel in place should allow for that to happen.

Pitt has its top seven offensive linemen back from a season ago. After struggling to run the ball in 2019 and 2020, the Panthers did have some success on the ground last year. Having all of those linemen back should allow for that to continue. Pitt also returns three backs that rushed for over 500 yards a year ago, led by the dynamic Izzy Abanikanda who totaled nine touchdowns as a sophomore last season.

Gavin Bartholomew is the best-looking young tight end Pitt has had in years, and after flashing potential as a true freshman in 2021, he should be a primary weapon this season. Bartholomew is physical and is a nice asset as a blocker, but we saw as the season went on last year he can be a valuable weapon in the passing game, and Cignetti has generally incorporated the tight end prominently into his scheme.

Pitt should still have weapons in the pass game without Addison. Jared Wayne broke out in 2021, and will be a key weapon with his 6’3” frame. Konata Mumpfield was one of the more hyped wide receivers in the transfer portal after achieving freshman All-American status at Akron in 2021. Those two along with fellow returnees like Jaylon Barden and Jaden Bradley, and Louisiana Tech transfer Bub Means should make for a more than formidable receiving corps.

Frankly, the success of the offense comes down to one position: quarterback, and that’s really no surprise. There has yet to be an announced winner in that race between USC transfer Kedon Slovis and Pickett’s long time backup Nick Patti. The battle raged on during spring, and will continue into the fall. Neither player will likely replicate what Pickett did in 2021, but there are weapons in place for them to have success and keep the offense among the best in the ACC.

Losing Addison hurts, there is no way around that. He made what would already be a good offense, a great one. Addison made plays not just anyone can walk on the field and do. He’s that good, and losing him changes the complexion of the offense. Having said that, there is still a lot in the tank here for Pitt to hum right along offensively in 2022.

Is Pitt basketball better today than in March?
Following the commitments of the Diaz Graham twins, Pitt now has ten scholarship players on board for the 2022-23 season. The Panthers are coming off an 11-21 campaign, the sixth straight losing season for the program.

In the offseason, Pitt lost a trio of starters in Mo Gueye, Femi Odukale, and Ithiel Horton. Gueye to graduation, while the latter two hit the transfer portal. The Panthers also saw reserve forward Noah Collier depart as another notable exit from the team.

The Panthers bring back their top two scorers from a year ago in John Hugley (14.8 ppg) and Jamarius Burton (12.4). In addition to that, Nike Sibande is set to return to the team after missing all of last year with an injury. Sibande averaged 15 points per game over the course of Pitt’s final five games in the 2021 season, and scored over 1,400 career points in three seasons at Miami (OH). The core is a good start, but as we saw last year Burton and Hugley needed some help, and the question is, have they gotten that yet?

The Diaz Graham twins brings size and versatility, but both could be considered projects to an extent, or at least a year away from being more than just role players. Pitt has also brought in Fede Federiko in the 2022 recruiting, a junior college center that was once committed to West Virginia with three years of eligibility remaining.

Pitt also dipped into the transfer portal to secure Blake Hinson, a 6’6” forward that averaged doubles figures for Ole Miss early on in his career, but has not played in a college game over the course of the past two seasons.

Perhaps Pitt’s biggest addition this offseason is Western Pennsylvania native Nelly Cummings, a guard from Colgate that averaged 14 points a game last season on an NCAA Tournament team. He is expected to be the team’s lead guard for this upcoming season.

The way I see it is, Cummings actually gives Pitt a true point guard. While Odukale had plenty of qualities as a player, he looked out of position as the season dragged on a year ago. In that department, I think Pitt upgraded by getting a player comfortable running the offense, and one that has had a lot of success in college basketball already.

Gueye’s absence will be tough to replace, and I’m still not sure if they found a suitable replacement for him just yet, but they have added a lot of size this offseason which helps. Gueye was a bit of a unicorn and frankly was a surprise with how he played a year ago. The twins and Federiko should be able to offset his minutes, but can one do that with his production or at least the matchup problems he created?

Pitt hasn’t really addressed a shooting presence yet this offseason. Cummings and Hinson are capable of making threes and Sibande’s return also gives them an option there, but again neither of them are knock down shooters, and either is Burton. With three spots remaining, a shooter seems like an obvious area to attack in the transfer portal.

Is Pitt better today than the team that lost to Boston College on March 8th? I think it remains to be seen. A lot of that can hinge on how much Hugley and the other returnees improve, how the three additional roster spots are used, and if one of the newcomers can be a surprise the way Gueye was a year ago.

It’s all still a work in progress, but they’ve added some intriguing pieces and it remains to be seen how they all fit, and if the team will be better next season.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt is still a 10-win team in 2022
Whether you are into traditional preseason rankings with different outlets and college football insiders making their projections, or if you are more into the metric side of things, the common belief was that Pitt was going to be very good in the 2022 season.

Various websites have tabbed the Panthers as a top-25 team, even a top-15 team in some cases, and then of course ESPN’s FPI rankings projected Pitt to have the ninth highest win total in college football, and ninth best chance to win the national championship. Coming off an 11-win campaign with 16 returning starters and multiple All-Americans coming back, it did not seem like that big of a stretch.

Of course all of that came with the understanding Pitt had the best wide receiver in college football leading the offense. Now that isn’t the case after Jordan Addison hit the transfer portal. I think it is fair, and even likely that a lot of those high expectations may be reeled back in a bit, but really I’m not so sure that they should entirely.

On paper, this still looks like a very good football team to me and one that should still have the confidence that it can meet some of those lofty expectations. Pitt is a top 25 team in my opinion, but maybe not quite in that No. 9 range as of today.

I outlined my thoughts on the Pitt offense, and with good quarterback play, I believe they have a chance to score a lot of points. The Pitt defense has its flaws, mostly in defending the pass, but it’s effective and opportunistic with the aggressive play from its defensive line. Pitt has multiple all-conference performers back on that side of the ball with Calijah Kancey, Haba Baldonado, Sir’Vocea Dennis, and Brandon Hill leading the charge.

The basis of Pitt’s ranking was not solely on the return of Addison, though he was a big part, a lot of the expectations came back from the volume of quality players on the roster, and that number is still pretty high.

It will look different without Pickett and Addison lighting up the scoreboard, but we knew half of that combination was gone already. I still think provided the quarterback play is competent you are still looking at team capable of winning the ACC again, but in fairness it did become a little bit more difficult in the past week.