The 3-2-1 Column: A showdown with Clemson
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In this week’s 3-2-1 column we’re talking about Pitt’s big home game with Clemson and some basketball, too.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
A lot is at stake
Nobody really needs to be reminded how big Pitt’s game with Clemson is this weekend, but I’m going to do it anyway. The Panthers currently sit with a 5-1 record and a 2-0 mark in the ACC. Pat Narduzzi’s football team just cracked the national rankings for the first time this season, and looks firmly in control atop the ACC Coastal standings. A win over Clemson can only expand Pitt’s lead and control over the division, but it is so much more than that, right?
This is Pitt’s big chance. Followers of the Pitt football program have been waiting for the big breakout season for a while now, and everything is laid out for it to happen in this 2021 season. Maybe you put something into ESPN’s FPI rankings, or maybe you don’t, but the numbers read like this:
To win the ACC Coastal: 88.6%
To win the ACC: 59%
To win out the regular season: 18%
To make the college football playoffs: 15.6%
It may be too early in the season to worry about a lot of that stuff, but it’s all out there and people are reading it. Maybe you don’t put stock into those computer projections, but maybe you believe in Vegas. According to DraftKings, here are Pitt’s futures outlooks in the betting world:
To make the ACC title: +130 (best odds in league)
To win the national championship: +7000 (8th best odds nationally)
Again, maybe too early to really start running to the casino to place those bets, but again, it’s out there and everyone can see it. The Panthers are viewed, at least at this juncture of the season, as a team with legitimate ACC title aspirations, and some outside chances to do more than that. It feels weird to read those numbers, especially for a program that hasn’t won 10 games since 2009 and with a loss to Western Michigan on its resume this season but that’s what it is right now.
A win this weekend can only further those odds and percentages and would make each week in the future that much bigger. There is a lot on the line for this team this weekend and there is no getting around it.
Clemson presents an opportunity
Looking past the computer rankings and betting lines and getting down to actual football and perception: this is a huge game. Clemson is not, well, Clemson this year, at least the version we're used to seeing, but the Tigers’ name still carries a lot of weight in the world of college football.
Pitt is hosting Clemson at Heinz Field in a 3:30 nationally televised spot on a weekend where there is not a big slate of games, so there will be plenty of eyeballs on this game, curious to see 1) if Kenny Pickett is a legitimate Heisman contender, and 2) if this Pitt team is for real on a national level.
Clemson is 4-2 on the season, and brings the ACC’s worst offense into this game. Dabo Swinney’s team is having a rare down-season, at least to their standards. This is a team that has won six straight ACC Championships, made the playoffs six straight times, played in four national titles, and won two of them during an unprecedented run of dominance for this program. Losing all-world quarterback Trevor Lawrence has crippled the team more than anyone could have predicted, and for perhaps just one season, the mighty Clemson Tigers look like they can be gotten to, and all the 2021 ACC contenders are looking to take advantage. North Carolina State has already taken down Clemson, Pitt will look to do the same tomorrow, and Wake Forest will eventually get its chance as well. If there is a year to do for the other teams in the ACC, this is it.
Clemson looks vulnerable, but this is still a team that presents an incredible challenge for anyone, just on talent alone. The Tigers boast arguably the best defense in the country, allowing just over 12 points per game. While the offense has struggled, quarterback DJ Uiagalelei is a former five-star recruit and he’ll be surrounded by other elite talent on offense. There is always the threat if you run enough talent out there, it will eventually click, and that is Pitt’s worry for Saturday.
Beating Clemson will still earn plenty of recognition in the eye of voters, even if it is not the usual Tigers team. This is a national spotlight for Pickett and Pitt, and a victory increases the Panthers’ chances at having a special season. Would a loss kill this Pitt season? I don’t think. The Panthers still have a division to play for, and really nobody would be shocked if Swinney’s team figures it out and runs the table from here either. The opportunity is there, however, and we’ll see what Pitt can do with it.
It doesn’t have to be all Pickett and Addison
I think we can now talk about some actual football. Pitt’s 28-7 win over Virginia Tech did not follow the same recipe the previous four wins had. Kenny Pickett did not light up the scoreboard at will, Jordan Addison wasn’t grabbing multiple touchdowns, but rather it was more of a team effort. In the long run, I think that’s a good sign.
The weather conditions did not allow for Pitt to run it’s normal aerial attack, but it didn’t seem to matter. There was added attention by the Hokies to lock down Addison, so Mark Whipple and the Panthers adjusted. Jared Wayne became a focal point in the passing game, and looked more than capable of handling the call. He hauled in six passes for 94 yards, including two spectacular plays, most notably a 36-yard touchdown in the first half.
Pitt’s running game has not been the primary source of offense this season, but it showed it has improved and can be an asset moving forward this season. Sophomore tailback Izzy Abanikanda had a breakout game with 140 yards on 21 carries and helped lead an 11-minute fourth quarter drive to drain the clock and thwart any attempt Virginia Tech could have at a comeback.
So in total, Pickett finished with a modest 203 passing yards and Addison had five catches for 62 yards. The two stars of the offense didn’t shine like normal, but both were still effective, and Pitt still won a road conference game by three touchdowns. Pickett did account for three of the team’s touchdowns, but it wasn’t all him for a change, and for the betterment of this offense heading into the second half of the season, it’s good Pitt is finding other options to help carry the weight.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
This is the biggest home game since…?
Pitt is ranked in the national polls, with a Heisman contending quarterback, leading its division, and is hosting perennial college football power Clemson at home in a nationally televised game. It does not get much bigger than that, so that begs the question: when is the last time the stakes were so high at Heinz Field for the Panthers?
Was it 2018 against Virginia Tech? The Panthers were making their march to their first Coastal title. Pitt had won three straight ACC games and a win over the Hokies would give the team firm control in the division. Yea it was big in the context of that particular season, but Pitt was only 5-4 entering that game.
How about 2016 versus Penn State? It was early in the year, but the buzz was in the air as the two in-state rivals got together for the first time since 2000. The Nittany Lions turned out to be really good that season, but nobody really knew it at the time. The win turned out to be big, but the team didn't propel itself for a huge season.
Pat Narduzzi’s inaugural season in 2015 had a big game in late October. Pitt was ranked, sitting on a 6-1 record and was 4-0 in the ACC, and hosting North Carolina in a Thursday night primetime game. Pitt lost, but heading into that game it was pretty huge.
Pitt’s expectations weren’t high in 2013, but opening the season with Florida State in the team’s first-ever ACC game after moving from the Big East felt big at the time. It was Paul Chryst’s first game with the program and Pitt had a legitimate superstar in Aaron Donald. There was definitely excitement in the air.
Or do we have to go all the back to 2009? No. 14 Pitt hosting No. 5 Cincinnati with the Big East title on the line. The Panthers were enjoying their best season in decades and had a roster full of future NFL draft picks. We all remember the game. Heck, even current Pitt senior linebacker Johnny Petrishen remembers it too.
“I remember having my heart broken when they lost to Cincinnati with Mardy Gilyard and Tony Pike,” he said when asked about where this Clemson game stacks up against other big Pitt home games at Heinz Field.
So I think in terms of where this Pitt team is record and rankings-wise, and where we are at in the season with the calendar, that 2015 game against North Carolina sort of feels like the most similar meeting to tomorrow, but given the hype of this Pitt team with Pickett's own personal play and the name of the opponent coming to town, you might have to go back to that 2009 game with the Bearcats. So needless to say, Saturday's game is a big one in Pitt’s history at Heinz Field.
What are reasonable expectations for Pitt basketball?
Let’s take a quick break from football to talk Pitt basketball. The season is inching closer with Pitt’s home opener against The Citadel on November 9th fast approaching. There has been a few preseason events for the basketball team: an open practice to the media, and an open scrimmage with the fans. There was also a ‘secret scrimmage’ with Maryland, one that Pitt reportedly lost 72-56, but the rumor out there is Pitt trailed by as much as 28 points in that not-so-secret of a scrimmage. John Hugley led the Panthers with 14 points, which is a plus I suppose.
The ACC media released its preseason poll this week. Pitt is picked to finish 14th out of 15 teams. The Panthers did not have any player receive any sort of preseason recognition. Needless to say, the expectations aren’t that high from an outside perspective.
Pitt last made the NCAA Tournament in 2016, since then the Panthers’ ACC finishes go as follows: 13th, 15th, 14th, 13th, and 12th. It has a pretty uninspiring stretch since Jamie Dixon left the program, and in the fourth year of Capel there hasn’t been any sort of significant upward trajectory. In fairness to the Panthers head coach, he walked into a tough gig following a winless ACC season the year before he got to town. In spite of that, Pitt has had good moments and big wins early on in the past three seasons, only to fade down the stretch run of each year.
I think the preseason projection for the Panthers is a fair one. The ACC looks to be better this season, and this team did not add any pieces that would sway voters to pick them any higher. They lost four starters, including All-ACC player Justin Champagnie to the NBA. It’s a rebuild for sure, but again it was only a team that finished 10-12 in a COVID-riddled college basketball season a year ago. What are they rebuilding towards?
I think a fair expectation for this team isn’t so much where they finish in the ACC standings, but how they get there. Pitt needs to show it can get better and improve throughout the season, as the last three years have gone in the opposite direction. There is a promising core of sophomores with Hugley, Femi Odukale, and William Jeffress. Transfers Jamarius Burton and Mo Gueye look like they can provide a winning mindset to the young team. There are some good pieces for sure.
At the end of the day, I think this team is capable of finishing higher than 14th, I’m not sure if they will crack the top half of the league, but I think there is enough in place to be competitive. If Pitt gets better down the stretch of the season with the young guys showing promise and if Pitt can bring in some players alongside four-star Judah Mintz (I know), then I think a lot of the sour feelings around this program can and will go away. Pitt doesn’t need to make the tournament this year (though a surprise run wouldn’t hurt!) but this team simply needs to show growth throughout a full schedule, and that late-year collapse can't happen again. The young talent needs to develop and give promise for future seasons. At least, those are my expectations or what I am looking to see.
ONE PREDICTION
Pitt wins on Saturday
I have been on multiple podcasts this week. I have answered some questions for a Clemson website, and I have been pretty consistent in my prediction: Pitt is going to win on Saturday. I still feel that to be true as I wake up on Friday morning.
I’m putting aside the hype of this game at Heinz Field, or the curse of Pitt in a big nationally televised game, or simply waiting for the other shoe to drop. I think if you look at this game taking away any preconceived notions about either program and look at the two teams for what they are: Pitt is a better team right now. That is a fact.
The old adage is, ‘Defense wins championships, but offense wins games’ and well, Saturday isn’t a championship. It’s a game, and Pitt has an offense that can really move the ball and score points, and Clemson does not. I know Clemson could figure it out at any time with the talent it possesses, but we’re six games into this thing and they haven’t shown many signs that it’s going to happen any time soon.
Pitt’s defense is the right kind of defense to face the Clemson offense, too. I like that matchup because you have a quarterback struggling to make good decisions and a running game that has been OK, but nothing special. Well, Pitt is going to gear up to stop that run, and they are going to put a lot of pressure on a struggling offensive line and a first-year starting quarterback with blitzes and pressure from the defensive line led by Calijah Kancey and Haba Baldonado.
Clemson’s defense is really good, like really, really good. The best Pitt will face all season. Pitt probably won’t score at will, but I think the Panthers have enough to outlast the Tigers. This won’t be a high-scoring affair, but I think it will be high-scoring enough that Clemson’s offense may have trouble keeping pace.