The Panther-Lair.com 3-2-1 Column: Penn State

Change is nigh for the offense
At least, change better be nigh for the offense, because what Pitt did with the ball on Saturday against Youngstown State isn’t going to cut it against Penn State - and it barely cut it against Youngstown State.

No, it simply doesn’t stand to reason that Pitt’s offense had even close to half of the playbook available. There’s no way Shawn Watson could be okay with coming out of a game having thrown the ball four times to Jester Weah, twice to Quadree Henderson and zero times to Chris Clark.

There’s no way Shawn Watson intends to virtually ignore the vertical passing game altogether.

There’s no way that jet sweeps are the most unique thing Pitt’s offense has in its arsenal.

It’s simply not possible because…well, the alternative - the notion that Saturday really was Pitt’s offense - just isn’t very pleasant to consider.

There has to be more in Pitt’s offense. Pat Narduzzi clearly held things back last season when the offense against Villanova was bland, punch-less and uninspiring - sound familiar? - only to unleash hell (schematically speaking) the next week against Penn State.

Pitt is probably hoping that part sounds familiar, too.

It remains to be seen just what Watson has in store for Penn State and the other 10 opponents on Pitt’s schedule this season. But it’s a safe bet that, whatever it is, it’s more than the Panthers showed against Youngstown State.

The Wirginis loss hurts
This doesn’t necessarily apply to the Penn State game, but the news this week that senior linebacker Quintin Wirginis won’t be returning after his suspension ends due to a season-ending injury should not be overlooked.

While Wirginis never started a game at middle linebacker, he played in 38 games over the last three years, and that experience is impossible to replace - it can only come through actually playing in that many games. And with it comes the ability to play fast, to think less and react more, and while Saleem Brightwell is a good athlete and has a bright future, he doesn’t have the on-field experience to be at that level just yet.

That’s probably why Pitt’s linebackers looked a step slow in the season opener last Saturday; they’re still thinking on every play rather than reacting. They’ll get better in that regard and will probably show improvements each week as the 2017 season continues. But for now, they’re behind, and that will cost Pitt plays on defense as the competition stiffens.

Wirginis could have added a much-needed dose of experience to the linebackers and would have improved the group overall by being in the field. But that boost won’t be coming this season, and that’s a big loss for the linebackers in particular and the defense overall.

A real challenge for the defense
Speaking of the defense, things are about to get real.

On the whole, Pitt’s defense played well enough against Youngstown State. Sure, Hunter Wells threw for 311 yards and the Penguins feasted on wheel routes and tight end passes that took advantage of the linebackers’ collective inexperience (remember how we mentioned that above?), but for the most part, Pitt was okay on defense.

That’s especially true in the secondary, where the Panthers seemed to be playing more alertly, batting down four passes and making a game-winning interception in overtime.

It wasn’t perfect, of course. The defensive backs still had some blown coverages, the defensive line didn’t get enough pressure and the linebackers showed their inexperience.

But now the competition level is going up considerably. Penn State starts with quarterback Trace McSorley and running back Saquon Barkley, a dark horse candidate and a legitimate candidate, respectively, for the Heisman Trophy. But the passing targets are very dangerous. Mike Gesicki is the best tight end Pitt will face all season; he caught two touchdown passes against Akron, and the Panthers gave up 100 yards on six catches to that position against YSU.

And the Penn State receivers are an imposing bunch. DaeSean Hamilton caught eight passes for 82 yards against Pitt last season, and he and Juwan Johnson combined to catch seven passes for 158 yards against Akron. And DeAndre Thompkins is another weapon after he turned three catches into 87 yards against Pitt.

Those are big-time receivers, and Pitt’s secondary will have its hands full trying to keep them in check.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What’s next for the running back battle?
There wasn’t a lot of clarity in Pitt’s backfield on Saturday. As expected, Qadree Ollison was the starter and he led the team in rushing - 91 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries - in addition to catching a team-high five passes for 35 yards.

But junior Darrin Hall also carried the ball 13 times and freshman AJ Davis saw playing time in crucial situations, going into the game twice on fourth down, once on third down and once on second-and-goal from the 1 (he converted both fourth downs and scored a touchdown on the second-and-goal play). So while Davis had the fewest carries of any running back, his usage in critical down-and-distances indicates the coaching staff’s confidence in him. For example, one of his fourth-down carries came on the final drive of regulation as Pitt was trying to get a game-winning field goal; failure to convert would have given Youngstown State the ball in Pitt territory, only needing a few plays to get into field goal range.

So what happens this week? Does Ollison continue to be the lead back? Or do the coaches rotate more? They used both Ollison and Hall on every extended drive in the game prior to overtime, sometimes putting them both on the field at the same time. Is that how Pitt’s running backs are going to be deployed in 2017? And what happens if Chawntez Moss returns this week?

Because ultimately, Pitt needs more from its running backs. Ollison and Hall both averaged four yards per carry, and that’s nice, but more can and should be expected in a game against an FCS team (like when Ollison ran for 207 yards on 16 carries against YSU two years ago). To that end, neither Ollison nor Hall seemed to be able to make defenders miss or break many tackles.

As such, the questions about the backfield continue, and they are crucial ones. Pitt’s offense - whatever it looks like - will be based on the run, and somebody needs to emerge as the No. 1 sooner rather than later.

How will these Pitt players handle the emotions that this game is going to bring?
It’s not hard to keep your emotions in check when you’re playing an FCS team in front of 40,000 people at Heinz Field. Lining up against the No. 4 team in the country with 100,000+ fans screaming at you is something different altogether.

And doing it when you’re making your second start or seeing significant playing time for the second time or playing in your second ever college game - that can be downright daunting. And it can be the kind of thing that leads to false starts and misreads and mental errors in all three phases of the game.

It’s probably an under-appreciated element of the 2016 team: with so many returning starters, so many players who had been on the field in so many different circumstances, keeping their heads and staying cool under pressure wasn’t too tall a task. Sure, it didn’t always translate to victories, but when it got down to crunch time in the two biggest games of the season, the Pitt players stayed calm and made the plays they needed to make to win.

So when that moment comes on Saturday in State College, when it’s third-and-6 at Pitt’s 39 and the Panthers are down by six with three minutes to play in the game and the crowd is going nuts and everything is boiling over, can Jimmy Morrissey keep his head straight for the snap? Can A.J. Davis stay focused and pick up the blitz? Can Chris Clark make the right chip and then leak into the flat without drawing too much attention?

And if that scenario is unfolding with Pitt’s defense on the field, can Keyshon Camp use the right technique? Can Elijah Zeise and Saleem Brightwell make the right reads? Can Bricen Garner and Dane Jackson adjust in coverage?

There are probably going to be a few high-pressure situations in this game, moments that could turn things in either team’s favor; can this young group of Panthers answer the call?

ONE PREDICTION

Something or other
There are two ways we can go here, right? I can predict the outcome of the game or I can make some ancillary prop-bet style prediction about a novelty like Pitt getting a pick-six or Quadree Henderson touching the ball 12 times on offense or something like that.

For some reason, it seems like the prop bet prediction is too trite for a game like this. This is Pitt-Penn State, the biggest rivalry in all of Pitt-related sports, a rematch of one of last season’s best games for the Panthers and a chance to notch a three-game winning streak against that other team in the state for the first time since the 1940’s.

So I don’t think I should make a prediction like that. I feel like I should predict the game. But here’s the thing:

I can’t in good conscience predict a win for Pitt.

There’s just too much personnel turnover for Pitt and too many personnel strengths for Penn State. Plus, the game is on the road at a venue that would be tough for any opponent but especially for a young team like these Panthers. And I just can’t shake the memory of how close last year’s game ended up being - how Penn State was driving for the win, or at the very least, to send the game to overtime and it took a miraculous interception by Ryan Lewis of all people (although he kind of had a knack for making plays in big games) to turn the Nittany Lions away.

No, there’s just too much working in PSU’s favor in this one to predict a win. Should I predict a loss then? How about a close loss? Is it weaseling out of a prediction to go with “Pitt will keep it competitive”?

Yeah, it probably is.

So how about this prediction:

Pitt might not get the Nittany Lions this year, but the Panthers will have their revenge at Heinz Field in 2018. Facing a Barkley-less, Gesicki-less, Hamilton-less, Cabinda-less, Cothran-less, Cothren-less, Campbell-less, Allen-less, Apke-less, Haley-less and maybe McSorley-less and Thompkins-less and Brown-less - all 13 of those guys are starters on this year’s team; some are seniors and some could leave before their eligibility expires - the inexperienced players Pitt is relying on in 2017 will have a full season under their belts in 2018, and they’ll get another win against their rival in front of the new largest crowd to watch a sporting event in Pittsburgh history.

There. There’s a prediction. Everybody remember that I said it when they beat Penn State next year.

Was that another cop-out?

Okay. Here’s my final prediction:

Pitt will cover the -21 spread.

Except…screw it. Let’s go for the gold. Somebody has to do it, so I’ll predict a Pitt win, a prediction that will be immediately forgotten in the event of a Pitt loss and trumpeted from the top of Cresson Mountain in the event of a Pitt win. I remember last year walking out of the South Side facilities the Thursday before the Clemson game talking to some other writers about how maybe Pitt could be the “Clemsoning” moment of 2016 for the Tigers. Maybe I’m on to something.

Who knows?

Either way, Saturday will be one to remember - maybe even for reasons that Pitt would want to remember.