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In this week's 3-2-1 Column we're talking about perception, commitments, needs and more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Different perspectives
The conflict for Pitt fans this offseason, the central question that many have wrestled with, the matter of how to view the 2018 season.

Simply put: was it a success since Pitt won the Coastal Division, or was it a failure because the team went 7-7 and had some blowout losses?

There’s obviously a lot of middle ground between those two extremes, but since both extremes are factually accurate - Pitt did win the Coastal; Pitt did go .500 and get blown out at least three times and maybe four, depending on how you view the Miami game - there’s something of a decision to be made by the fans:

Was 2018 good or bad?

That’s terribly reductive, but it’s a real question to consider. And for Pitt fans, the question has far-reaching implications. Because if 2018 was a success, as winning the division would seem to indicate, then Pat Narduzzi must have the program on the right track. But if 2018 was not a success, as a .500 record and three or four blowout losses would seem to indicate, then Narduzzi is stumbling into Year Five of his tenure at Pitt and drifting perilously close to the proverbial hot seat.

Quite frankly, if message boards and Twitter are any kind of view on the mind of the fan - and they often are not - Pitt’s supporters tend to lean toward the negative view on 2018.

Which is fine. Like I said, it’s factual that the Panthers went 7-7 last year. Penn State, UCF, Clemson and kind of Miami blew them out. It happened, and I can understand if that’s the dominant memory fans have of the season.

But here’s what’s funny:

Fans might be spending this offseason wondering about the future of Pitt football and the direction of the program under Narduzzi, but recruits aren’t.

If the results of the last two weeks are any indication, recruits are buying in. They believe in what Narduzzi’s doing and they believe in where Pitt is going.

“I see Pitt winning the national championship and I see myself breaking records.”

That’s what Israel Abanikanda told us after he committed this past weekend. Some might respond by saying, “Well yeah, what recruit would go to a team where they don’t expect to win championships?” And that’s a fair point. But the reality is, not everybody is going to win a national championship, and there are a lot of recruits who commit to schools that don’t have a realistic chance of ever reaching that level, so those words might ring a bit more hollow.

But a lot of Pitt’s commits had options to go to schools that legitimately can win national championships. Ohio State, Penn State, Florida State, Michigan, Auburn, LSU, Florida Notre Dame - these schools show up all over the offer sheets for Pitt’s 2020 recruiting class; those prospects considered their options and thought their best chance for success was with the Panthers.

They believe in what Narduzzi is building. And these commitments aren’t the product of one official visit weekend; they come from a long period of building relationships with the coaching staff - relationships that hit the finish line of a commitment via an impactful official visit. So while some fans may find themselves thinking more highly of Narduzzi after the commitment rush, the recruits have seemingly been feeling this way for awhile.

The fans are more excited now
Want a great example of how excited Pitt fans are right now?

They barely blinked when a (1) WPIAL target who (2) plays tight end at a (3) school with a history of being good to Pitt committed to (4) a Coastal Division opponent.

Of course, I’m talking about Woodland Hills tight end Josh Rawlings, who announced a commitment to Virginia on Sunday night. That was a loss for Pitt on multiple levels: he’s a local player, which always rankles the masses. He’s from Woodland Hills, which is a school that has been pretty reliable for Pitt in recruiting. He was a long-time Pitt lean, from before he got offered through this spring, when he continuously spoke of the Panthers as a clear favorite.

And, perhaps most tangibly, he’s a tight end, further expanding the black hole of recruiting that is that position for the current Pitt coaching staff.

A brief history of tight end recruiting under Pat Narduzzi:

2015 - None
2016 - None
2017 - Grant Carrigan, Charles Reeves (departed), Tyler Sear (departed)
2018 - None

After Sear left the team at midseason last year, Pitt’s 2018 roster had exactly one recruited tight end - Carrigan - plus a grad transfer in Will Gragg, who followed Matt Flanagan and preceded Nakia Griffin-Stewart as grad transfer tight ends at Pitt. I should add, of course, that Kaymar Mimes signed as a defensive end in the 2018 class but moved to tight end, so perhaps I should add him to the list, but it looks far more impressive/dire to present it the way I did.

For the 2019 class, Pitt signed Jason Collier, but he’s probably a couple orders of O fries away from moving to offensive tackle, so the hunt continues. More on that in a moment, but as we look at Rawlings’ commitment to Virginia, it’s striking to me that the biggest reaction from the Pitt fanbase hasn’t been about the WPIAL or Woodland Hills or Virginia; it’s been about losing a tight end.

Ordinarily, the disappointment about losing a tight end would have been compounded considerably by those other factors. But after the positive news of the last two weekends, it was almost like the Pitt fans couldn’t muster the negative energy to get too down about it.

Put Rawlings’ commitment in another time - say May or the first week of June - and the meltdown would have been epic. In the wake of a dozen official visit commitments, though, there was a different perspective.

There are still a few needs
Okay, there’s no question this recruiting class is off to a smashingly good start. 16 commitments before the end of June with two four-star prospects, three more on the cusp of four-star status, some underrated gems and serious inroads with a few more top-end recruits - it’s hard to find much to complain about so far.

That said, the Pitt coaches still have some work to do. Plenty of work. Of course, there’s the matter of keeping 16 commitments on the commitment list until Signing Day in December; we’ve talked about that - see the “second battle” section of last week’s 3-2-1 Column - and Narduzzi and company will have their hands full with that one, because schools are going to be in hot pursuit of some of these commitments for the next six months.

But there’s also the matter of finishing the class. 16 is a great start, but there are some glaring needs among the empty spots on the commitment list. We don’t know how far the coaches can or will push it with this class, since Pitt has a small group of scholarship seniors this year, which lowers the number of available scholarships. But we know they need more in the group.

Like offensive linemen. Pitt has one big man committed in Michael Statham, but one is never enough and more are needed. How many more? There are limits on space in the class, of course, but I think the coaches need to get two more linemen for the 2020 group. I tend to go with the Three-Year Rule, a rule of thumb that a coach told me a long time ago where you recruit the current class to replace the current third-year players. The idea is that the current class will be third-year players - redshirt sophomores or juniors - the year that the current redshirt sophomores graduate, so they should be ready to step in.

Now, some positions like running back are expected to contribute sooner than Year Three, so it might not apply there. But I think it’s a good general guideline for linemen, and to that end, Pitt has a big redshirt sophomore class this year. There are five offensive linemen in that group, so in theory, the 2020 class will be recruited to replace those five.

The Panthers aren’t going to sign five offensive linemen, but they need more than one and I think they’ll aim for three, which means two more commits. If the coaches could land two of the three who visited in the last two weeks to go along with Statham, I think they’d be positively giddy.

Tight end is still a need, too. Rawlings seemed like a sure thing, but we’re reminded again that there are no sure things in recruiting, so it’s back to the drawing board on that one. In the Rivals.com database, there are eight tight ends who claim Pitt offers and are uncommitted; earlier this week, we ran down five targets who seem to be legitimate targets for the Panthers, and the coaches really do need to get one of them.

It just seems that tight end is a difficult position to recruit, and that’s not just a Pitt problem. I feel like there are fewer tight ends available - quality ones, at least - and the position itself is evolving in football. I don’t think Pitt will punt on the position this year, but it has certainly been a tough one for the Panthers over the years.

Finally, there’s a pretty big hole in the quarterback spot in this class. And not only is there a hole on Pitt’s commitment list, but there’s also a hole on the offer sheet, and it’s not really clear that there are a lot of available targets the Panthers are pursuing. Things can always be bubbling under the surface and maybe that’s happening here, but Mark Whipple seems to be suffering from the curse of a newly-hired offensive coordinator who has to make up a lot of ground in a short amount of time.

Thus far, it hasn’t worked out for Whipple and the Panthers, and chances are, Pitt will need to keep an eye out for a quarterback who emerges in his senior year.

So those are a few things to watch as recruiting heads through the summer.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

How many will stick?
Let’s talk numbers for a minute.

13 commitments this month for the 2020 class (plus one for 2021). That’s an impressive number, to be sure, and in terms of rising seniors, it trails last year’s record-breaking haul by just one. But of course there’s inevitably a question about how many of those 13 will still be on Pitt’s commitment list by Signing Day in December and, more importantly, how many of the 13 will sign a Letter of Intent that day.

Historically, June commitments tend to be loyal. In the five full recruiting classes that Dave Wannstedt signed - 2006-10 - there were 28 June commitments and 27 of them signed with Pitt. The only decommitment was Eric Rodemoyer, an offensive lineman from Kennedy Catholic in the class of 2006 and committed and June but then flipped to West Virginia (although it was suggested at the time that Pitt may have initiated his “flip”).

Otherwise, Wannstedt was perfect on June commitments. Paul Chryst was pretty good, too. In his two full classes, Chryst got 18 June commitments and signed 17 of them. Corey Clement was the one loss in that group; fun fact - it was Clement and not Rushel Shell who is the trivia answer to whose defection from Pitt precipitated James Conner playing running back. Feel free to impress the ladies with that one.

Thus far, Pat Narduzzi has been strong with his June commitments, too. He got five in the class of 2016 and signed them all. Ditto for the seven June commitments in the next class. In the 2018 class, Narduzzi got seven commitments and signed six; Matt Alaimo was the decommitment, as the tight end (of course it had to be a tight end) and Pitt parted ways right before Signing Day.

We’re leaving out the transition years here, of course, since those don’t have great retention rates for obvious reasons. To wit, all five of the June commitments in the 2011 class signed elsewhere after Wannstedt and then Michael Haywood were fired. Four of the five June commits in the 2012 class also found different homes when Chryst replaced Todd Graham. And Pitt lost three of the seven June commits from the 2015 class after Chryst bailed for Wisconsin and Narduzzi was hired.

But if we go from 2006 to 2018 and remove those three transition classes, we see a pretty impressive signing rate. 65 recruits committed to Pitt in June, and just three decommitted: Rodemoyer, Clement and Alaimo.

Three decommitments in 11 classes - that’s not bad at all.

Then we get to this past year, the class of 2019. Pitt had its biggest June haul ever (at least as far back as I can remember) with 14 commitments. It was unprecedented and a direct result of having official visits in June, since 11 of those 14 commitments came from recruits who took official visits.

By Signing Day in December, though, three of those 14 were signing elsewhere. Three out of 14 isn’t a huge number, but when you consider that it’s the same number of decommitments that Pitt had in the previous 11 non-transition classes combined, it’s notable.

It’s also probably somewhat to be expected. The overall number was higher, so there was bound to be some changes and shifts. That’s especially true when Pitt didn’t have an official visit to use on those guys; one key with early commits is getting them back on campus in the offseason for an official visit to reinforce the commitment. Pitt didn’t have one to use on Travis Koontz or Brandon Mack or Khadry Jackson, so that hurt the Panthers’ cause.

Still, if Narduzzi and company can hold onto 10 or 11 of these 13, they’ll still have the foundation of a really strong class. Some decommits could hurt more than others, of course, but there is talent spread throughout this group.

What’s working down south?
I talked about Florida last week but I have to do it again because it happened again this past weekend.

After adding two Florida commitments out of the first official visit weekend - plus one in the spring - Pitt doubled the Sunshine in the class with three more commits from the state in the second visit weekend. And they weren’t just any commitments; the Panthers’ three latest recruits from Florida are high-end prospects.

To wit, last weekend Pitt landed four-star defensive back Jahvante Royal, four-star receiver Aydin Henningham and high three-star defensive tackle Timothy Brown. They join running back Henry Parrish, the Miami Herald‘s Class 8A offensive player of the year, and defensive ends Emmanuel Belgrave and Sam Williams, a pair of speed-rushers off the edge.

That’s quite a haul, and it matches last year’s total of six Florida recruits who signed with Pitt (it would have been seven if Khadry Jackson had stuck with his six-month commitment to the Panthers instead of flipping to North Carolina right before Signing Day).

Just like last week, we have to once again give props to Charlie Partridge. He was heavily involved in last year’s Florida class, serving as the lead recruiter on four of the six Sunshine State prospects to sign with Pitt. But this year, he’s the point man on all six (and just for fun, he was involved in landing 2021 defensive end Nahki Johnson this week, too, but that’s not Florida so we’ll set that aside for a minute).

Right now, Pitt’s 2020 class has a heavy out-of-state feel. Dayon Hayes is the only Pennsylvania prospect on Pitt’s commitment list, and there’s more than a slight chance that he will be the only commonwealth representative to sign with the Panthers in the class. The rest of the group has three from Georgia (finally a payoff to considerable efforts spent in the Peach State), two from Maryland, two from New York and one each from New Jersey and Ohio.

Okay, Michael Statham is originally from Pennsylvania but he’s playing in Maryland this year, so we can split hairs on that one if you want. But the point remains:

Pitt is looking outside the region to build its class. Whether that’s a result of diminishing talent locally, diminishing interest locally or having assistant coaches who are strong in recruiting other areas, the results are clear:

The Pitt staff is more than content to put this class together with recruits from out of state. And right now, they’ve got one of the strongest Florida recruiters in the country in Charlie Partridge. He’s always been good down there, but he seems to have taken it up a notch this year.

Like everyone else on Narduzzi’s staff, Partridge will have his work cut out for him when it comes to maintaining the commits through the fall and into December. But it’s hard to ignore the work he has done so far. I’m guessing we’ll be writing more about his efforts in Florida over the next six months.

JUST ONE MORE THING

That Pittsburgh sound
It’s not all Florida and Georgia, though. Something might - might - be happening in western Pa.

As I look at Pitt’s recruiting efforts, I think there’s a chance for something to happen. A window, and maybe it won’t open too wide and maybe it won’t let too much through, but I think there’s a window that’s opening a bit for Pitt.

I’m thinking about the commitments of Dayon Hayes and Nahki Johnson. Both are big-time local prospects - Hayes in the 2020 class and Johnson in the 2021 class - and both have big-time offer sheets with some of the schools that annually seem to siphon off the top-end talent in western Pa.

Hayes’ commitment was big, and I’ve written a lot about that one. It was a much-needed return to success in western Pa. for Pitt, the biggest local recruit to commit to the Panthers since Paris Ford in the 2017 class (and he actually committed in the fall of 2015, so it’s been almost four years).

Johnson’s commitment might have been even bigger. Like Ford, he committed very early, but Johnson was actually even earlier than Ford; Ford waited until the fall of his junior year, but Johnson hasn’t even started that year of high school.

Assuming Johnson and Hayes stay true to their commitments, it’s going to be big for Pitt on and off the field. Both are very good players, but they also have a chance to represent a potential turning of the tide for the Panthers locally.

One thing Pitt really needs to improve its recruiting in the WPIAL is a greater sense of pride from local prospects. Local kids need to see Pitt as a viable option, a place where they can succeed and do it in front of their hometown. It’s been too easy for local recruits to ship out in recent years, partially because the Panthers haven’t achieved success at a consistently high level and partially because the hometown pride just hasn’t been there.

Pitt needs local players to do well as Panthers. That can be such a huge boost to the recruiting efforts locally.

Then again, Tyler Boyd’s success didn’t help very much when Pitt got its clock cleaned locally in the 2017 class, and plenty of local prospects have gone elsewhere in the intervening years despite clear endorsements from players like Hamlin and Ford.

That’s probably always going to happen. Pitt’s never going to get everyone in western Pa., and the reality is that Pitt never historically got everyone in western Pa. What Narduzzi and company need to shoot for is getting some of the top prospects locally each year - enough to keep Pitt relevant as a destination for local players.

So Boyd’s success helped land Jordan Whitehead. Whitehead helped a bit with Damar Hamlin. Hamlin definitely helped with Paris Ford. And Ford and Hamlin have trickled down to Hayes and Johnson. I wrote before about how important Hamlin and Ford are; if they continue to succeed, that importance will only grow, and if Hayes and Johnson carry that forward, then Pitt will have a good chance of building some success in future classes.