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In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, there’s a whole lot to like about Pitt’s defense right now, but can the offense improve enough to not waste it?

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Pitt needs to score more
Greetings from the U.S.S. Obvious, this is your captain speaking…

It’s all about offense this week, right? It’s all about Pitt’s offense and whether that group can make some improvements and start producing at a higher level.

Because, so far, it simply hasn’t happened. Pitt is currently averaging 33 points per game, which is a nice total, but against Power Five competition, that number dips to just 22 after the Panthers followed a 21-10 win over Syracuse with a 23-20 win against Louisville this past weekend.

Don’t get me wrong: if you start a season 3-0, that’s remarkable and definitely a positive accomplishment. We know it’s a positive accomplishment because, prior to this season, Pitt hadn’t done it since 2014. And before that, the Panthers hadn’t done it since 2009. And the last time before that was 2000.

There have been more Spider-Man reboots than 3-0 starts for Pitt this century.

And if the Panthers can beat N.C. State this weekend to get to 4-0, that would be the first time since 2000. A 5-0 start would date back to 1991.

But I’m getting ahead of myself. Way ahead of myself. Because the truth is - and I know that you know this - if Pitt’s offense doesn’t figure some things out and get more consistency in its performances, the Panthers will be in some peril.

The kind of peril that has you losing to inferior opponents like Miami and Boston College last year.

Those two are my go-to examples of how a subpar offensive performance can submarine an otherwise quality defensive showing. Pitt’s defense played well enough to win in both of those games, even the loss to Boston College, which we’ve discussed in the past. But because the offense was so poor and struggled so mightily with consistent execution, the games were lost, turning a nine-win regular season into a seven-win record.

That’s the difference between being certifiably good and certifiably average, at best. And it hinged on the offense. That was a nine-win defense last season. Maybe a 10 or 11-win defense. But it was offset by a four-win offense.

Now the Panthers are running the risk of doing it again. We’re only three games into the season and plenty of development and improvement can happen, but it’s very, very concerning that this year’s offense shows a lot of the issues that last year’s offense had.

Dropped passes. Procedure penalties. Turnovers. And just an overall inability to execute.

The plays are there to be made, but an error by one guy here or one guy there sinks the whole enterprise. And while even good offenses will have errors from time to time, bad offenses have them often enough that they cost you games.

That’s what happened last season, and there are some signs that Pitt is on that same path this year. Which means that while the Panthers should have little trouble beating N.C. State and Boston College in the next two weeks to improve to 5-0, it’s equally likely and perhaps even more so that the games will be close or even losses due to the issues on offense.

This defense is playing at a very high level right, a championship level, but there’s only so far you can get when one side of the ball is carrying the team.

Everything is clicking
Let’s be positive for a moment and talk about Pitt’s defense.

To be honest, it’s almost like that group has been overshadowed. I know I’m guilty of it. On this week’s Panther-Lair Show podcast, I opened by talking about the offense that has been underperforming, not the defense that has been dominating.

And “dominating” really is the word to use here. We throw around hyperboles all the time in sports and, thanks in part to the advent of social media where everyone needs to make a grand declaration daily, we throw around hyperboles all the time in life. But Pitt’s defense has earned that term - “dominating” - because that’s what they’ve been doing.

The defensive line is creating an incredible amount of pressure and has 14 sacks through three games. The linebackers are getting to the ball and playing at a really high level. And the secondary already has six interceptions (in all of 13 games last season, Pitt’s defensive backs had a total of eight picks).

It’s really something to behold. You don’t often see a defense that looks this complete, this solid from front to back and everywhere in between.

If we think back to previous Pitt defenses, even the really good ones, there were always some weaknesses. The defenses of the early 2000’s had really good linebackers and pretty good secondaries but lacked depth up front. The latter half of that decade saw Dave Wannstedt build the defensive line, but those units weren’t as strong on the back end.

Aaron Donald was obviously a beast for the 2012 and 2013 teams, but those defenses had holes in the linebackers and secondary at various points, and the transition from Paul Chryst to Pat Narduzzi further exposed some issues in both of those areas.

Now, with five years of Narduzzi’s recruiting and at least a few years of development with this coaching staff, everything seems to be coming together.

It’s really a continuation of what began in the latter half of the 2017 season. Pitt’s defense started rounding into form during that 5-7 year, culminating with the win over then-undefeated Miami in the regular-season finale.

The defense had some rough patches early in 2018, most notably against North Carolina and UCF, but that unit really clamped down in the second half of the season and then, of course, played at a pretty high level last year.

Still, there were questions entering this season. Losing Dane Jackson and Saleem Brightwell and Amir Watts weakened the depth, to varying degrees, and the opt-out of Jaylen Twyman followed by the season-ending injury to Damarri Mathis brought some doubt about how the defense would follow its 2019 performance. Matching last season, let alone exceeding it, seemed out of the question.

And yet, here we are. Three games into the season, Pitt is legitimately making a case for itself as the No. 1 defense in the ACC and possibly the nation. The Panthers are creating pressure, tackling well, getting takeaways and, in the most general and forceful sense possible, making it very difficult for opponents to move the ball.

It’s hard when you take the field against Pitt’s defense right now. I have to imagine that, if you are a quarterback or an offensive line or a running back and you line up for first down at the 25, the 75 yards to that goal line looks like 175, and you know you’re going to have to work very, very hard to get there.

Of course, that’s if you’re the opposing quarterback or offensive line or running back. For everyone else, it’s a pretty fun defense to watch.

Young players emerging
Pitt’s defense is getting some big-time contributions from the guys you would expect to be contributing at a high level. Paris Ford has two picks and a team-best 17 tackles. Damar Hamlin has an interception of his own. So does Jason Pinnock. Rashad Weaver and Patrick Jones have 3.5 sacks each.

That’s what you would expect. Those are the names you would expect to be leading the defense, and they are.

But the thing that has pushed this defense further and given it a better chance of sustaining the success both this season and beyond, has been the emergence of several underclassmen with minimal experience who have shown some real flashes.

Like Marquis Williams. I always wondered about the undersized corner in the class of 2018. He was a gamer in high school, locking up bigger and higher-profile receiver prospects. But once he got to college, I wasn’t sure if that would translate.

Through his first two years at Pitt, Williams played a total of 46 snaps at cornerback, sporadically stretched over six different games. And when sophomore A.J. Woods got the start in this year’s opener against Austin Peay, I really wondered if Williams was going to contribute.

Two weeks later, I’m not wondering anymore. He has played 107 snaps in the last two games, he’s second on the team in tackles with 10 and he has an interception. According to Pro Football Focus, he has been thrown at 10 times and has given up six receptions for 40 yards, with an average of less than two yards after the catch. He’s not getting targeted a lot, and when his man does catch a pass, not much happens beyond that.

Then there’s SirVocea Dennis. As many have brought up this week, his commitment at the tail end of the 2019 recruiting cycle didn’t draw a strong reaction. Actually, it drew a reaction - just not a positive one. Nobody was impressed by the Air Force decommit from central New York who was doing a post-grad year in New Jersey when he showed up for an official visit on the last weekend before Signing Day and committed on his visit.

The Pitt coaches saw something, though, and they believed enough in what they saw to put him on the field as a freshman. Dennis played in eight games last season, and while only one of those appearances came at linebacker, the trust was there. Now it’s paying off. Dennis is Pitt’s top reserve at outside linebacker, he is averaging 25 snaps per game on defense this season and is tied for third in tackles with 14.

He’s also got five quarterback pressures on 22 pass rush snaps, according to Pro Football Focus; sample size is a consideration, of course, but that pass-rush success rate - 22.7% - puts him ahead of Rashad Weaver (19.2% on 52 rushes) and Patrick Jones (11.6% on 69 rushes).

(For further comparison: Pitt’s top pass-rushing linebacker is Cam Bright, who has 10 pressures on 22 pass rushes, a remarkable 45.5% success rate).

Dennis has also made some clutch plays for the defense, and while I don’t expect him to take Cam Bright’s job or Phil Campbell’s job, he’s a pretty talented backup to those guys and looks like he can be a really productive starter for the next couple years.

Finally, there’s Calijah Kancey. I have to imagine that Pitt fans are probably more excited about him than any other (relative) newcomer on the team. As a backup defensive tackle, Kancey is tied for seventh on the team in tackles with eight - the same as redshirt senior safety Damar Hamlin. He’s also second on the team with four tackles for loss and he has 1.5 sacks. And his six quarterback pressures, according to Pro Football Focus, are fourth-most.

Again, this is a reserve defensive tackle we’re talking about. Not a starting defensive end or linebacker. A reserve defensive tackle.

Check out these numbers.

Now, I’m not going to go crazy and say that Kancey is Jaylen Twyman pt. 2 or that he is better than Twyman. There is a significant difference in sample size, as Kancey has played about 50 snaps and Twyman played more than 700. But keeping that in mind, the comparison is pretty interesting.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Can you win a championship with defense?
This is really my question of the week and maybe the season, and it’s a question I haven’t stopped dwelling on since the end of the Louisville game.

So I decided to do a little research and see what recent history tells us about teams that haven’t been great at scoring.

In the last five seasons, only three teams have averaged less than 30 points per game on offense and won at least 11 games. But perhaps 30 is a lofty goal, so let’s pare it down to where Pitt is right now. The Panthers are averaging 33 points per game, but that’s on the strength of a 55-0 blowout win over Austin Peay. If we take the number from the last two games - 22 points, on average - that gives us a slightly better idea of where the offense fits.

And it’s not encouraging.

Only two teams in the last five years have posted at least nine wins while averaging less than 23 points per game. Last year, San Diego State averaged 21.2 points per game - the same as Pitt - and went 10-3. The Aztecs offset that low production with the nation’s No. 2 scoring defense, giving up 12.7 points per game.

The other team that won at least nine games while averaging less than 23 points per game in the last five years was Northwestern in 2015. The Wildcats scored just 19.5 points per game and held opponents to 18.6 points per game. That’s a dangerous way to live, although Northwestern was wildly inconsistent that season, beating Minnesota 27-0 one week and then losing to Michigan and Iowa by a combined total of 78-10 in the next two games.

Even Pat Narduzzi’s last team at Michigan State, the 2014 Spartans who went 11-2 and beat Baylor in the Cotton Bowl were potent offensively. Sure, they were No. 22 in scoring defense, allowing 21.5 points per game, but they also lit up the scoreboard to the tune of 43 points per game - good for No. 7 in the nation.

And the next year, when Michigan State went 12-2, won the Big Ten Championship and made the College Football Playoffs, the Spartans still averaged nearly 30 points per game (29.8, to be exact).

Scoring a lot isn’t a guarantee for success, but it’s virtually a necessity in college football in the 21st century. You can make up some of the difference with a great defense and Pitt certainly has that, but it’s tough to imagine a great defense truly carrying a team to the highest levels of success.

You simply have to score. You have to get touchdowns in the red zone. You have to capitalize when your defense gives the ball with a turnover. And you have to attack. The overwhelming majority of the teams that have had success in the last five years have done just that.

How many more injuries can they survive?
Last Saturday was a pretty good day for Pitt. The Panthers improved to 3-0 overall for the first time since 2014 and 2-0 in the ACC for the first time since 2015. They offset a subpar offensive performance with a dominant defensive showing to knock off a fairly decent Louisville team, and they got contributions from a lot of different players, with a few key plays on offense, a bunch of guys showing up on defense and special teams getting right after a rough start to the season.

What’s more, the entire team was present on the sideline for the first time this fall; no players had to be absent due to COVID-19 protocols.

But despite the positive news about the lack of COVID absences, it wasn’t all sunshine and roses, particularly on the personnel front. Because while every member of the team was present at Heinz Field last Saturday, there were a bunch of key players who weren’t in uniform.

There was Lucas Krull; he didn’t dress for the Louisville game, and that was somewhat expected after the redshirt senior tight end was limping against Syracuse and sent some cryptic tweets that were later deleted during the week between games.

Similarly, redshirt sophomore Erick Hallett wasn’t in uniform last Saturday after leaving the Syracuse game with an injury.

Less expected was Wendell Davis, the redshirt sophomore who started the first two games at middle linebacker but showed up at Saturday’s game on crutches and wearing a brace on his right leg.

Another new addition to the walking wounded was redshirt freshman Kyi Wright, and with him, Krull and redshirt senior Jake Zilinskas on the sidelines, Pitt’s tight end depth was seriously depleted.

Redshirt freshman running back Daniel Carter was also among the group who missed the game. He left the Syracuse game after two snaps, and while he was in uniform last Saturday, he didn’t play. The running back depth was further weakened when senior A.J. Davis had to leave the Louisville game.

Along those same lines, the receivers got thinner when Jared Wayne took a big shot in the third quarter and had to come out. And the offensive line depth was tested when redshirt junior right tackle Gabe Houy left the game in the second quarter.

Of course, Pitt was also still missing redshirt sophomore defensive end Habakkuk Baldonado, who was hurt in the season opener.

That’s a long list of two-deep players - nine, by my count - to be missing in a conference game, and while I think Pitt has done a good job of filling in for those guys, depth can only go so far, even if it’s good depth. The Panthers simply can’t afford to lose too many more players to injury, and they could really use some of those guys back.

I don’t know who will return this week, but simply not losing anyone else would be a good start.

ONE PREDICTION

There will be more points this weekend
I feel like this week’s prediction has to be about the offense, and the best outcome for Pitt would be to get more points, so I guess that’s where we’ll go.

But it’s tough to make that prediction. It’s tough to sit here and say that the issues we saw in the wins over Syracuse and Louisville will magically sort themselves out this Saturday, that the offense will flip a switch and all of a sudden become a cohesive, efficient and effective unit.

There’s simply not much to base that on, at least in terms of empirical evidence.

But I’ll say it. Kind of.

Here’s what I think will happen. I think Pitt will score a season high in points (the Austin Peay game notwithstanding) and I think the Panthers will make that happen due to some advantageous field position.

That’s probably an underrated storyline this season: Pitt’s defense is forcing turnovers. With six interceptions and two fumbles recovered, the Panthers are third in the nation with eight total takeaways after three games, which is pretty impressive when you consider that they recorded 14 total turnovers in 13 games a year ago.

That’s a jump from No. 107 in the nation to No. 3, and we probably should be talking about that more than we are because it was really the one big thing missing from Pitt’s defense last season, and it kind of defied logic. The Panthers were one of the best in the nation at getting to the quarterback and one of the worst at getting takeaways; that doesn’t make sense, since creating pressure is often a good step toward forcing turnovers.

I assumed that if Pitt continued to generate pressure like that, the takeaways would follow, and they have.

The question now is what the Panthers’ offense does with those turnovers. Pitt had five takeaways against Syracuse and Louisville (four interceptions and one fumble); on the five resulting possessions, the Panthers scored one touchdown, made one field goal, missed one field goal, turned the ball over on downs and ran out the clock at the end of the Louisville game.

We can set the victory formation drive from last Saturday aside, but to get a total of 10 points on four turnover-generated drives doesn’t seem like enough, especially when two of those drives gave Pitt the ball on the opponent’s side of the field (the Panthers recovered a fumble at the Syracuse 33 and got no points thanks to a missed field goal, and they intercepted Louisville at the 49 and came away with three points on a made kick).

So my prediction for this week is that the pendulum swings toward some outcomes that make more sense. In two games this season, N.C. State quarterbacks have thrown three interceptions and they have been sacked seven times; I think that’s a recipe that Pitt’s defense can cook in a big batch on Saturday, putting pressure on the Wolfpack’s quarterback - whether it’s Devin Leary or Bailey Hockman - and forcing him into some bad decisions.

I think those bad decisions will lead to opportunities for the defense to get some takeaways, and I’m predicting that those takeaways will turn into at least one touchdown for Pitt’s offense, if not more.