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In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re talking about Pitt football: today, tomorrow, and beyond. We’ll start looking past the loss to Western Michigan and move to the rest of the season ahead. Dig in, there is plenty to talk about this week.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Waiting it out…for now
There is almost a bingo card that can be made when Pitt loses a football game by now, especially one where it feels like they should have won. No modern day Pitt head coach has escaped this particular discussion, and you know what I am talking about. Walt Harris, Dave Wannstedt, Todd Graham, Paul Chryst, and of course now Pat Narduzzi have all lived through these very same debates following precarious losses. It can never just be a singular defeat for this program.

Oh no, not even close.

The discussion about a loss inevitably turns to: Does the head coach need fired? How about the assistants? Is the athletic director doing enough for the football program? Is Heinz Field too big? Why don’t fans go to the games? Why can’t Pitt have an on-campus stadium? Are they recruiting well enough to compete? Did they fire Dave Wannstedt too soon?

I think you get the picture.

If you read the articles, check the message boards, and see what is said on social media, you probably could have filled out that bingo card by the end of game, let alone the weeklong discussion that has followed it.

It can’t just be a one game isolated incident for Pitt. It has to be a full on examination of the program and the fundamental failures surrounding it that go back for decades. Is it wrong? Is it unfair? Probably neither, but that doesn’t make it any less tiresome and the horse can’t get beat to death any more than it already has.

I’m not ready to have that coaching change discussion…yet. Pitt has nine more football games to play before the 2021 season concludes, including all eight ACC contests. I’m not saying the season is trending in that great of a direction after losing to a MAC team at home in week three, but it’s also worth seeing what happens tomorrow, and the eight games that follow it.

I think in the seventh-season of Narduzzi’s tenure, it’s fair to start wondering about the future, especially after witnessing a loss like the one on Saturday, and I’m all for having that discussion at some point, perhaps if there is another head-scratching loss, and certainly by the end of the season. There are still games to be played this season, and Pitt will win some of those as well, and the future direction of this program may be decided on how many of those end up being victories.

All I’m saying is that, I’m waiting it out, and skipping the on-campus stadium debates for now.

New Hampshire is a game Pitt has to have
This isn’t an earth shattering take, and let’s be frank here: Pitt is going to win on Saturday against New Hampshire. I can’t see a scenario in which they lose to an FCS team after the nature of the loss the team suffered a week ago. I don’t know if Pitt needs to win 56-7 or anything like that, but the team simply needs to show progression in the areas that it has struggled with early on this season and win the game by multiple scores. That’s just what it is.

I don’t think Pitt should waste a ton of efforts in running the football this season, because I don’t think they are very good at it, and the passing game is actually very effective. Having said that, this is the type of game where you can work on the issues in the run game and try to start getting this area to at least a respectable level.

This also seems like a good game to fix some problems on special teams. There have been troubles with coverage units, punting, and even extra points. Pitt hasn’t really generated much in the return game either. If you are the Power-5 team playing the FCS team, this is the game to make it work.

Lastly, the defense needs improvement in a lot of areas. I think many of the struggles are scheme-based, which makes the problems at least correctable. Let this game be a confidence builder. Have the players fly around and make plays and have fun: get sacks, turnovers, big hits - whatever. We heard both Pat Narduzzi and Randy Bates sort of suggest guys were thinking too much last game, this can be a matchup where you shouldn’t have to think, just go play football.

Again, I don’t know if Pitt has to run New Hampshire off the field tomorrow. I don’t even know if they will, either. I think what coaches and fans are looking for from this team is a good, solid winning effort where the players fix the issues that came up on the field last game. This game needs to be a confidence builder heading into ACC play, and Pitt needs to treat it as such. There’s no use in playing it with any other mindset. That 2019 effort against Delaware, while it was a win, didn’t inspire a ton of confidence. Right now there are plenty of doubts around this team, and Saturday is a good opportunity to change the tune.

Pitt goes as far as Kenny takes them
I hit on it a little bit in my point above, but there have been serious concerns about Pitt’s running game for the past three seasons. I think the best way to move on from the problems with the running game is to just run the ball less. The more I think about it, why bother with it sometimes? It just isn’t working.

Kenny Pickett is your offense. If you put the ball in his hands more often and good things will probably happen. He’s completing 71.2% of his passes and is on pace for 40 passes touchdowns this season. I think I trust that source of offense a lot more than any rushing attempts.

Pitt’s top two running backs, Israel Abanikanda and Vincent Davis, have combined for 173 yards on 56 carries for a 3.08 yard per carry average with three rushing touchdowns. Pickett is actually the team’s leading rusher. The Panthers finished with less than 100 rushing yards against a MAC defense - it is what it is.

I don’t know how much the running game needs to improve, more so than I just think it needs to be phased out of the play calls the rest of the season. Pitt’s not going to win with offensive linemen opening up holes for running backs to get three yards a carry.

Sure, you want to help the defense in the time of possession battle. Of course, you want game-ending drives like you had in Tennessee, and you want the improved red zone play trend to continue.

I get all of that. Running the ball is still important, but Pitt is going to win more games with Pickett throwing than Abanikanda or Davis running. Just fully embrace it as this point.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What happens with the running back?
Despite my better efforts to discourage it, Pitt probably will still try to establish the run tomorrow in some fashion, and for the rest of the season, too. I think the coaches want to have some kind of balance to the offense, and that’s fair. Pitt becoming an air-raid offense would be much more entertaining, but I digress.

So I think that begs the question: Who should be the primary running back? It’s been pretty clear the coaches have felt it has been Vincent Davis to this point. Throwing out the UMass game where they rotated the backs a bunch, the last two games have been pretty telling.

Davis had 19 carries against Tennessee, a team-high that day as opposed to Abanikanda’s 12. He also had a 50-10 edge in total plays against Western Michigan. So will that start to change?

Davis is a solid pass-blocker, he can make plays out of the backfield, but 2.9 yards per carry is hard to ignore. I don’t place the blame on him entirely, scheme and blocking obviously are as guilty to Pitt’s running failures as much as the backs, but after all the production is what it is.

It’s not that Abanikanda’s 3.6 yards per carry is a significant upgrade, but to a point, if he was the player that received all the hype and attention in the offseason, wouldn’t it be fair to turn him loose and see what you have?

I think the running game needs a jolt. Abanikanda is the 5’11” and 220-pound guy with speed, maybe it’s starting to become time to see if he can be that spark.

Where is the defensive end production?

Habakkuk Baldonado: 133 snaps // 12 Tackles // 4 TFL // 7 pressures // 3 sacks
Deslin Alexandre: 97 snaps // 7 Tackles // 1.5 TFL // 2 pressures // 0 sacks
John Morgan: 92 snaps // 5 Tackles // 0 TFL // 5 pressures // 0 sacks
Dayon Hayes: 84 snaps // 1 Tackle // 0.5 TFL // 4 pressures // 0 sacks

Pitt has gotten more sacks and tackles for loss from its defensive tackles and linebackers than it has from its defensive ends this season, and that is something that needs to change. Losing two All-American’s that were drafted off of last year’s team certainly created a void and Pitt has felt it early on this season. Patrick Jones and Rashad Weaver were excellent college players and a drop-off in production really was never that farfetched and we’re seeing it play out this season.

Having said that, this is group that has still produced before in limited roles. Baldonado has played well this season, and looks to be poised for a strong year. After that, it has been a bit disappointing for this group. Deslin Alexandre was a starter in 2019 and played well that year. John Morgan had six sacks and 11 career tackles for loss over the past two seasons getting reserve snaps. Dayon Hayes was the first four-star defensive end recruit Pitt has landed in years.

I think it’s reasonable to wonder where the production has been from these guys. I also think it’s very likely this group picks it up as well. Baldonado is going to continue to draw more attention. Calijah Kancey and Keyshon Camp have played well inside, so I think it is only a matter of time until the other ends break out, and again, I wouldn't say it is based off of potential or expectations. Morgan and Alexandre are guys that have made plays in the past.

ONE PREDICTION

Kenny Pickett plays his way to a Day Two pick
Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett has been on fire early on this season. The super senior quarterback is overseeing a top-10 scoring offense in the country, with Pitt averaging 44.3 points per game. Individually he is ranked in the top 20 nationally in passing yards, yards per game, passing efficiency, passing touchdowns, and completion percentage.

Pickett is sitting on 939 passing yards and 10 touchdowns through three games. After throwing for 13 touchdowns in each of the past two seasons, he is on pace to shatter his previous career highs in just about every relevant category.

The Pitt quarterback’s backstory is obviously known by now. He was trending towards leaving for the NFL last season, there was a Senior Bowl invite on the table, but he did not like what he was hearing about his draft stock and opted to use his extra year.

Pickett bet on himself, and it’s looking to be a smart one through a quarter of his fifth season at Pitt. He may not come up and move into the first round with the likes of Matt Corral, Carson Strong, and Sam Howell, but he’s not too far behind those guys, and if the impressive play continues, that gap may shrink even further.

I’m not a draft expert, but at this point it’s hard to think Pickett is doing anything but climbing the draft ladder. His potential always seemed to appeal more to draft experts than college football personalities, and this season he is starting to show what they’ve been describing of him these past few years.

I think Pickett started the year where he ended last year: a late-round pick. I think through three games he’s done nothing but jump up on some boards and I think his stock continues to rise.