The 3-2-1 Column: Recruiting, a new transfer, a QB prediction and more

MORE HEADLINES - PODCAST: Momentum, official visits, a new QB transfer and more | Slideshow: Photos from Pitt's first prospect camp of 2023 | 2023 OL Tai Ray plans Pitt official visit | Pitt offers big 2024 TE Gavin Grover | 2024 DB is high on Pitt after camp | Incoming RB Bailey will not enroll | Elite 2024 DE Nigel Smith has positive first visit to Pitt | Strong camp performance earns offer for Ohio OL | Prospect camp rundown: Five standouts from the first camp | The Weekend Recap: Commitments, commitments and more commitments

In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re talking about the latest developments on the recruiting front, why Pitt added a transfer quarterback and a lot more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

There’s the momentum
Shortly after Pitt’s win in the ACC Championship Game last December, the Panthers signed 12 prospects for a 2022 recruiting class that ranked in the 70’s nationally, and I heard some questions.

“Why hasn’t the ACC title turned into recruiting momentum?”

I got some version of that question fairly regularly in December, both on the message boards and in private communications. And my answer was always the same:

Recruiting momentum from a successful season comes in the next recruiting cycle.

So if you have a good 2021 season, there might not be a huge impact on the current recruiting cycle (the class of 2022), but it will show up in the next cycle (the class of 2023).

And it has shown up.

It actually started showing up in the spring, when Pat Narduzzi and company hosted more than 60 offered prospects for unofficial visits. And these weren’t all recruits who came in from a three-hour driving radius; the spring visitors included numerous kids from Florida as well as quite a few from Georgia and even one or two from Alabama.

They all paid their own way to come see the ACC champs, because Pitt right now has some appeal as a destination. It’s on the radar.

I’m probably going to repeat that line again.

The next sign of the momentum was the official visit weekend. We’ll break that down more in a minute, but the Panthers brought 14 official visitors to campus last week and landed commitments from six of the 12 recruits who weren’t already committed to Pitt while also laying a pretty good foundation with the other guys on the visit.

The ACC championship helped create the appeal that brought the prospects on campus, and the coaching staff closed the deal.

Finally, on Sunday, Pitt hosted its first prospect camp of the summer, and it was simply massive. I mean, huge. I have been covering Pitt prospect camps for 17 years, and I’ve never seen one this big. More than 500 players showed up in the South Side, and the sheer size of it was insane.

Now, there were not 500 Power Five prospects at the camp. There weren’t 500 FBS prospects. Maybe not even 500 FCS or DII recruits. But the numbers do tell a story.

They tell the story of a program that is prominent enough and attractive enough that 500 high school football players said, “I want to spend my Sunday getting coached by the guys who just won an ACC championship.”

Did the success of 2021 bring all of those players to the South Side? Maybe not all of them. But it did a whole lot to raise the profile of the program, and you better believe it made the prospect of playing for Pitt, getting coached by Pitt and just being around Pitt a lot more appealing.

The ACC title shed a light on what Narduzzi has been building for the past seven years, and the program is reaping the benefits.

The official visit weekend
By just about any measure, I’d say Pitt’s first official visit weekend of June was a success.

14 recruits came to campus last Thursday. Two of them were already committed, and six of the other 12 gave a verbal pledge while they were in town.

Let’s start with those six.

There’s Kenny Johnson, the receiver from York who was considered a strong Penn State lean and had an official visit scheduled with the Nittany Lions (as well as visits to West Virginia and Rutgers).

There’s Shelton Lewis, the cornerback from Georgia who came into the visit with more than a dozen offers and a pair of ACC official visits scheduled.

There’s Shadarian Harrison, the standout athlete from Florida with elite size who is somehow under the radar despite holding 20 offers.

There’s Isaiah Neal, the perfect-fit defensive tackle from Baltimore who holds 20 offers of his own and scheduled official visits to N.C. State, Maryland and Rutgers for June.

There’s Brice Pollock, the impressive cornerback from Georgia with an offer sheet and visit plans that span the ACC, SEC and Big Ten.

And there’s Antonio Camon, the edge rusher from Tampa with two dozen offers.

They all decided Pitt was it, and just like that, the Panthers’ commitment list for the class of 2023 went from two recruits and a ranking in the 60’s or 70’s to eight recruits and a ranking inside the top 25.

That’s more like it. And I don’t think the success from that first weekend is over. Pitt set the bar for Georgia running back Javious Bond, who only has Memphis scheduled for an official visit at this point. The Panthers also made a strong impression on Stanton Ramil, the how-is-he-not-a-four-star offensive tackle prospect who’s got a four-star offer sheet, four-star film and four-star potential.

I also think Pitt did well with four-star defensive end Jalen Thompson; there will be a real battle for the Detroit pass-rusher, with Michigan State already positioned as a favorite and Ohio State also jumping into the mix. And it’s going to be very interesting to see what happens with Jackson McGohan, the Cincinnati tight end commit who clearly has an eye on the Panthers.

I like Pitt’s chances with Calvin Smith, the defensive end from Ocoee (Fla.), too. I think Pitt made a strong impression on him, and we’ll see what happens with his trio of upcoming Big Ten visits to Rutgers, Illinois and Purdue.

Overall, the visit weekend was a strong start to June for Pitt. This month is always full of action, and 2022 looks no different. These six commitments were about as good as you could hope for - maybe even a little better than you might have predicted - and the players who didn’t commit definitely came out of the visit thinking highly of the Panthers.

A little surprising
I’m going to be honest for a moment.

I shouldn’t say it like that. I think I’m always honest, or at least as honest as I can be. And I was certainly honest in that last section. So maybe I’ll say it differently. How about this:

I’m going to admit something.

I’m going to admit that I was surprised Pitt had the success it did on the official visit weekend.

I mean, I knew there would be commitments. It’s June and it’s an official visit weekend; there were always going to be commitments. But I didn’t think there would be many. At least, not nearly as many as we’ve seen in previous years and, ultimately, not as many as they ended up getting.

Why was I less than confident?

Because it’s 2022, the brave new world of college sports where the ecosystem has been considerably off-kilter from what it was, if not entirely upended.

To be blunt, I thought recruits would shop around. And I think you know what I’m getting at.

NIL deals.

I won’t sit here and say that every school is pitching NIL deals on official visits. And I would imagine that the topic doesn’t come up all that often in conversations between recruits and coaches. But on some visits and with some parties, it does come up, and even if the coaches themselves aren’t having those discussions, someone is.

So as recruits move through June and take their visits and see the schools and meet with coaches, the specter of NIL potential looms, whether it surfaces as a discussion point or if it doesn’t come up at all (which might make just as big of an impact).

I think there is a fair number of recruits right now wondering what they can get in NIL money. I don’t begrudge them that curiosity; if I was a 17-year-old going through the recruiting process and hearing the prominent news about what Jordan Addison got or what Zay Flowers was offered and I’m hearing the through-the-grapevine news about what other recruits are getting…well, I might just have to start asking what I can get, particularly if I’ve got options in my recruitment.

Now, I’ll say again that I don’t think this is 100% across the board. I think there are a whole bunch of coaches that are trying not to make this part of the recruiting process, trying to keep the focus on the more traditional opportunities that their programs and their schools can offer. I think Pat Narduzzi is one of those coaches, and I don’t think he’s alone.

But I also think recruits are asking the questions, or at least keeping the topic in mind as they take visits and consider their options. And, to that end, I didn’t think the first weekend of official visits - for Pitt or just about anywhere else - would produce a ton of commitments. I thought that this year, more than the first three cycles of June official visits, would see a greater number of recruits hold off on committing until they could take a few additional visits.

But that didn’t happen. Pitt batted .500 on its first visit weekend - or better, if you consider that maybe not all 12 had the option to commit - and that’s a credit to Pitt’s staff for selling the program effectively over that 48 hours.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Did they need another quarterback?
The news cycle didn’t stop just because the official visit weekend ended. A few days after the recruits left campus, Pitt hosted a pair of transfer candidates for visits:

Dartmouth quarterback Derek Kyler and Notre Dame running back C’Bo Flemister.

Those two were each pretty interesting for their own reasons, but let’s focus on the guy who committed to Pitt.

That would be Kyler, the uber-efficient and experienced quarterback who led Dartmouth to an Ivy League championship this past season and finished his career with a sparkling 42:6 touchdown:interception ratio.

Kyler isn’t the biggest quarterback you’re going to find - Dartmouth listed him at 6’0”, which means he’s probably around 5’10” or so - and his offer sheet upon entering the portal last December featured the likes of Chattanooga, Samford, New Mexico, UMass and Eastern Illinois.

So no, he’s probably not going to be a surprise competitor for Kedon Slovis and Nick Patti in the battle for Pitt’s open starting quarterback job.

Why is he coming to Pitt, then? And why is Pitt taking him?

Well, I think there are a few reasons. From Pitt’s perspective, Kyler represents something pretty valuable:

Experienced, efficient depth at quarterback.

I used those two words earlier - efficient and experienced - and those are the things that stand out the most to me about Kyler. He has played 30 games over the last three seasons and attempted 524 passes; like I mentioned earlier, just six of those 524 passes - 1.1% - ended up in the opposing teams’ hands.

For comparison, during his Heisman Trophy finalist season last year, Kenny Pickett had seven interceptions on 497 attempts - 1.4%.

I think that’s the appeal for the Pitt coaches. They have a very solid top two at quarterback with Slovis and Patti, but there’s not much behind those guys. Nate Yarnell is the only other scholarship quarterback on the roster, and he redshirted with an injury last season.

So if Pitt ends up in the unfortunate position of needing the third quarterback this fall, the options were shaping up to be Yarnell, with his ongoing rehab and complete lack of game experience, or a walk-on.

But with Kyler on the roster, the Panthers could turn to a quarterback who has played a lot (that’s important) and doesn’t make a lot of mistakes (that’s even more important). We saw what happens when an inexperienced quarterback is called to the field in the Peach Bowl; ideally, Kyler will be a little better prepared for a situation like that if one occurs.

And here’s the other thing:

Pitt has the scholarships available.

Prior to Kyler committing, Pitt was projected to have three open scholarships for the 2022 season. There’s nothing to be gained from leaving those empty, so Narduzzi and company looked for opportunities to fill them. And what they found was a quarterback who could plug a hole - even if it’s the third quarterback spot.

It’s insurance to take a player like Kyler, and it seems like a pretty smart move to me. The coaches have effectively covered a potential issue that could arise if they run into a stretch of particularly bad luck.

Anybody else?
With Kyler on board, Pitt still has two open scholarship spots, so the next question is natural:

Will the coaches add anyone else?

I mentioned Notre Dame running back C’Bo Flemister; it was interesting that he visited Pitt this week, since I didn’t really think the Panthers would be in the market for a running back. Perhaps it was tied to incoming freshman Jordaan Bailey not being able to enroll due to academic concerns. Or perhaps the coaches just saw an open scholarship spot and a player they thought might be able to help.

We’ll see what happens there.

What other options do the coaches have for those two remaining scholarship?

I think Sam Scarton has to be one of them. It’s not necessarily ideal to have two kickers on scholarship - Ben Sauls was recruited as a scholarship player - but Scarton did the heavy lifting last season. He hit 81% of his field goals and was a third-team All-ACC selection, and while he missed three extra points, he still set Pitt’s kick scoring record with 120 points.

That should be good enough for a scholarship, in my way of thinking.

Beyond that, I think there are probably a couple places Pitt could look to fill in the scholarship roster. The coaches addressed the receiver, tight end and linebacker situations with multiple additions at each position.

All three of those spots needed some depth for the 2022 season, and with Konata Mumpfield, Bub Means, Karter Johnson, Dylan Deveney, Shayne Simon and Tylar Wiltz, I think things are pretty well covered there.

So I think for the last spot, the coaches might have an eye toward the future. Maybe a young offensive lineman or a defensive lineman who is looking for a change; I could see that happening. You always need to add talent along the lines, even if it’s talent that might take another year or two to develop.

At the same time, if there’s a freshman or redshirt freshman or sophomore quarterback out there who is still on the market and catches Frank Cignetti’s eye, then those tires might be worth a good kicking. There’s a real chance that Pitt will go into the 2023 season with virtually no experience at quarterback, so adding another body wouldn’t be the worst idea, even if it’s just for competition.

Truthfully, the coaches could take a “best player available” approach, and if they find a good talent in the portal who is willing to join the team, get him and figure out the fit later. Like I said before, there’s nothing to be gained from leaving spots empty, so find someone to fill them.

And if there’s really nothing doing in the portal, give the scholarship to a walk-on. But I think Pitt should be able to find another worthwhile transfer (after taking care of Scarton, of course).

ONE PREDICTION

Kenny Minchey will be Pitt’s starting quarterback in 2023
Okay, that’s ridiculous, and completely out of character with the kinds of things I usually say and write on this here website.

It’s an outrageous prediction, right in line this this type of statement

And that’s the kind of thing I don’t do. I make bad predictions. I am wrong about predictions. But at least they’re based on a semblance of reality, not an entirely out-of-left-field wild hyperbole.

And yet…

No, I’m not going to predict that Kenny Minchey is Pitt’s starting quarterback in 2023. At least, I don’t think I am. But maybe by the end of this column, I will have convinced myself.

There are a few factors in play here. To start, there’s Kedon Slovis and Nick Patti; it’s hard to imagine a freshman getting the starting job if one or both of those guys are still around next season.

There’s also the matter of transfers. If Pitt goes and gets another transfer quarterback this summer or in December, that’s going to complicate things.
And I also think that Minchey has to enroll in January if he’s going to have a chance to win the job.

Of those three factors, the last one is the only one we have an idea about, as his mother told me that they are working toward an early graduation. So that part should come together for the plan.

We’ll see about the other two pieces to the puzzle.

I guess this “prediction” is really just a way for me to say that I’m buying into some of the hype about Minchey. The more I’ve watched his film (even if I am not a football expert) and the more I’ve talked to people (who are football experts), the more I have come to believe that he might be the real deal.

He’s got legit size at 6’3”, he throws with accuracy and touch and he can make throws on the run. He’s not as mobile as Kenny Pickett or probably even Nick Patti, but he’s big enough and strong enough to shed a tackle or two and keep a play alive. He might not take off for a 25-yard scramble on third-and-13, but he should be able to shake a defender off and make a throw downfield.

Look at his highlight film.

Watch the time he drops the ball over three defenders with a perfect throw that his receiver takes for a 50-yard gain. Watch the time he throws to a receiver standing in the middle of five defenders, and somehow the receiver is still the only one with a chance to catch it. Watch the time he scrambles to his left and throws a 45-yard dime on the run, placed perfectly on the spot where his receiver is waiting.

Watch all the times he attacks the middle of the field. I think you have to get halfway through the highlight clips before you find a pass to the sideline.

I don’t know. Maybe it’s the size and build. Maybe it’s the jersey number. Maybe it’s my own preference because he’s my fantasy quarterback in a keeper league. But there are shades of Dak Prescott in Minchey’s game, and while I know I’m dabbling in extreme comparison bordering on over-hype…there are shades of it.

From what I’m told, Minchey has it between the ears, too. He has been well-trained and has a good working knowledge of the game. I’m really looking forward to seeing how he performs at the Elite 11 finals in Los Angeles three weeks from now. I think he’ll do well out there. And I also think he’ll do well in his senior year of high school.

A year from now…well, we’ll see what happens. If the two seniors are gone and Pitt doesn’t bring in another Slovis-type and Minchey enrolls early, I would say that anything is possible.