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Nail-biters, breakout stars, emerging weapons, and a lot at stake - that’s what we’re thinking about as Pitt gets set to face Virginia tonight.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
You can’t keep doing this
Saturday’s game was certainly exciting. There’s no question about that. On a difficult day in Pittsburgh, Pitt came out and created at least a little distraction, playing like cardiac kids and doing their best impression of the 2015 Panthers who won more than a few games in the waning minutes.
That was the case against Duke, when Pitt overcame a three-point deficit in the fourth quarter to win on one of the best passing plays the Panthers have made all season (maybe in the last two seasons).
Very exciting. And also a very dangerous way to live. Because this wasn’t the first time Pitt had a game decided in the fourth quarter this season. As a matter of fact, most of the Panthers’ contests this season have come down to the final 15 minutes.
The Albany game was a safe win, of course, and Penn State was up 30-6 by the time the fourth quarter started. After that, every game other than the blowout loss to Central Florida was a fourth-quarter decision.
Against Georgia Tech, Pitt’s 24-6 lead at the start of the fourth quarter ran down to five points with a pair of Yellow Jackets’ touchdowns; Phillipie Motley’s first career interception was the only thing that stopped GT in the fourth quarter and probably preserved the win. At North Carolina, the Panthers scored to cut the Tar Heels’ lead to three points with three minutes to play, but the defense failed to make a crucial third-and-5 stop that could have given the offense the ball back with two minutes left.
Pitt came home from the UCF blowout to score 10 points in the fourth quarter and force overtime against Syracuse before knocking off the Orange with a touchdown and an interception in the extra period. And at Notre Dame, the Panthers had the ball twice after the Irish scored a go-ahead touchdown in the final six minutes but were unable to take back the lead they had held all game.
Add in Saturday’s last-minute win over Duke, and that’s five out of eight games this season that could have gone either way in the fourth quarter.
It’s exciting, no doubt, but those situations are 50/50 propositions, at best, and right now Pitt is 3-2 in those five games. If it’s really a 50/50 bet on who will win a one-score game in the fourth quarter, then the Panthers might be in line for a loss to even that record.
So I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to say they should probably try to stay out of those situations going forward.
The breakout star
No, I’m not talking about V’Lique Carter here; he was certainly the breakout star of the win over Duke, and he deserves every accolade he has gotten this week.
Instead, I’m talking about the breakout star of the season, and to me, that’s Maurice Ffrench.
I’ll admit: I’ve been driving the bus on Ffrench hype for a long time and certainly in the most recent offseason. It seemed to me that his opportunities had been limited but he had quite a bit he could contribute to the offense and the special teams as an explosive player with the ball in his hands.
He certainly didn’t get the opportunities in 2017, with nine rushing attempts, 25 receptions and two kick returns. And he didn’t produce much on the opportunities he did get, averaging 9.8 yards per touch and scoring zero touchdowns.
This year has been a different story. Ffrench started the season with a bang when he returned the opening kickoff against Albany 91 yards for a touchdown, and since then he has scored six more times, tying him for the team lead in touchdowns with Qadree Ollison. And he has been the team’s most explosive player by a number of measures (Carter’s single-game outburst notwithstanding).
Ffrench has touched the ball 47 times this season (14 rushing attempts, 19 receptions, 14 kick returns) and has gained 809 yards - that’s 17.2 yards per touch. His touchdowns have been even more explosive - he’s averaging a whopping 49.7 yards on his touchdown plays (to wit, he has scored on kick returns of 91 and 99 yards, receptions of 58, 50, 25 and 16 and a rush of 9).
For comparison, when Quadree Henderson was an All-American in 2016, he averaged 54.9 yards per touchdown - or roughly five yards more per score than Ffrench has this year. Henderson topped 2,000 all-purpose yards, which Ffrench probably won’t do, but Ffrench’s yards-per-touch average is about 1.5 yards better than Henderson’s was.
I’m not saying Ffrench will be an All-American, but he is playing his way into all-conference honors as one of the bright spots in a passing game with very few and an overall explosive weapon on a team that needs as many as it can get.
In the win over Duke on Saturday, he added another element to his 2018 resume: downfield receptions. He caught a 50-yard pass on post that saw him beat a pair of defenders, and he pulled in the game-winning 25-yard touchdown catch while adjusting the ball and making the grab on his knees.
Ffrench is developing some chemistry with Kenny Pickett, and it goes without saying that if that can continue, Pitt’s going to be pretty dangerous on offense in the final third of the season.
Weapons are developing
Ffrench isn’t the only Pitt skill player who seems to be finding his game.
Now that Taysir Mack is back and working into a rhythm, the Panthers have a pretty legit top-two at receiver, and I think those two guys give Pickett some really good options. Plus, Rafael Araujo-Lopes continues to be a really solid safety net out of the slot. Aaron Mathews didn’t get many opportunities against Duke, but he showed what he can do at Notre Dame, and his blocking has always been on-point.
And Tre Tipton saw his most playing time of the season last Saturday, so he’s in the mix as well as Dontavius Butler-Jenkins.
Oh, and there’s a rushing attack with two traditional runners in Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall plus a number of guys who can attack from various points on the field and make things happen if they get into the open field.
So if we’re keeping track, Pickett now has a downfield threat (Ffrench), a getting-back-up-to-speed reliable pass-catcher (Mack), a useful slot receiver (Rafael Araujo-Lopes), a tough big-bodied receiver (Aaron Mathews) plus a few more wideouts of varying skills and abilities; he’s got a running game that can attack from the middle or the perimeter - or attack from the middle to the perimeter - and he’s got his own running ability, which hurt Duke on multiple occasions and probably should continue to be at Pickett’s disposal.
The weapons are developing just as Pickett is developing (maybe because he is developing?) and it’s happening at the right time. We’ve talked so much about these final five games and how crucial a stretch of games this is, both for the season and perhaps for something bigger. And if Pitt’s going to succeed in this stretch, if the Panthers are going to finish strong by going 3-2 at a minimum and, in what would really be defined as a strong finish, 4-1 or even 5-0, the offense was going to have to come together.
I don’t want to make too much of Saturday’s game against Duke - Pickett completed eight passes, after all - but there were certainly some elements there to build on. Even if Pitt doesn’t rush for 484 yards again, even if Carter doesn’t come out of nowhere to run like he did again, even if Pitt doesn’t score 54 again, the Panthers should be able to create some carryover from the Duke game.
Pickett should be a little bit better. Ffrench should continue to make an impact in the passing game. Mack should get more comfortable. Araujo-Lopes should do what he does. Somebody - everybody - should be able to keep things moving in the ground game.
There are reasons to think this offense is coming together, which it will have to do to keep the Panthers in the hunt over the next four games.
TWO QUESTIONS
What’s different?
All the focus, naturally, is on tonight’s game and the coming weeks. As it should be.
But allow me, just for a moment to look back, because I found myself thinking this week about this season and how it compares to last season.
After eight games in 2017, Pitt was 3-5 overall and 1-3 in the ACC. The Panthers beat Duke on the road in Week Eight, recording their first ACC victory and their first win over a Power Five opponent after losing in the first five games against that level of competition.
This year, of course, Pitt is 4-4 overall and 3-1 in the ACC. That first number isn’t a huge improvement over last year’s 3-5, but the conference record sure is. So what is behind the change from 2017 to 2018? What has Pitt in the hunt for the Coastal Division this season, when last year at this time, the Panthers were scrounging for their second conference win?
It’s not the schedule. If anything, last year’s schedule should have lent itself to a better record than this year’s since Rice has been replaced with Central Florida.
It’s not the quarterback play. Through eight games this season, Kenny Pickett has completed 60.6% of his passes for 1,156 yards, eight touchdowns and five interceptions. Through eight games last season, the triumvirate of Max Browne, Ben DiNucci and Pickett had completed 62.5% of their passes for 1,832 yards, seven touchdowns and three picks.
Even if you take out Browne’s big game against Rice - 410 yards and four touchdowns - you end up with 59.5% completions for 1,422 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. Pickett’s numbers look a little better, but his seven-game totals from prior to the Duke win were 1,006 yards, six touchdowns and five picks on 62.4% completions.
The touchdowns are better, but the picks are not. And three of those six touchdowns were thrown behind the line of scrimmage, which should be taken into consideration.
At best, the quarterback play is probably a wash, aside from Browne dropping 400 yards on Rice.
And it’s probably not the defense that separates 2017 from 2018. This year’s defense has given up at least 35 points in five out of eight games; last year’s defense gave up 35 in three of the first eight (if we drop the bar to 33, we can include the Penn State game and make it four out of eight).
Pitt’s defense this season is allowing 185.5 rushing yards per game and 250.5 passing yards per game; last year through eight games, the defense was giving up 163.6 rushing yards per game and 270.4 passing yards. This year’s team is a little better against the pass and a little worse against the run (some of which is probably due to the opponent).
So the schedule favors 2017, the quarterback play and the defense is more or less a wash. What gives? What’s the difference between last season and this season? There are a couple things.
There’s that whole matter of winning in the fourth quarter that I mentioned above, although I don’t think that’s terribly relevant, since this year’s team has been in five games decided in the fourth quarter and last year’s team had only been in two at this point (although they won both of them).
No, it seems to me that the biggest difference is the one thing I haven’t mentioned: the running game, where the distinction between 2017 and 2018 is stark.
2017 after eight games: 141.5 rushing yards per game, 12 rushing touchdowns
2018 after eight games: 227.9 rushing yards per game, 17 rushing touchdowns
Both seasons benefit from a huge performance against Duke in the eighth game, of course. Last year’s team ran for 336 and three touchdowns to beat the Blue Devils; this year’s team had 484 and four scores.
But even through the first seven games, 2018 has been considerably better in the ground attack.
2017 after seven games: 113.7 rushing yards per game, 9 rushing touchdowns
2018 after seven games: 191.3 rushing yards per game, 13 rushing touchdowns
As you may have heard, this year’s Pitt team runs the ball pretty well. Really well. If they keep their per-game average above 200 yards for the rest of the season, they’ll finish as one of eight Pitt teams since 1970 to average two bills. Only two other Pitt teams in the last 30 years have averaged at least 200 rushing yards per game: Paul Chryst’s James Conner-led ground-and-pound Panthers in 2014 (249.5 rushing yards per game) and Matt Canada’s sweep-and-shovel trickery in 2016 (225.1 rushing yards per game).
I’m going to go out on a limb and say it would be in the best interests of the 2018 Pitt team to join that list.
Is this the proving ground?
This is what everyone expected, right?
I think when we all looked at the calendar, everyone circled this game - Nov. 2, 2018, Virginia hosting Pitt at Scott Stadium - as one that was definitely going to be a huge determining factor in the Coastal Division.
That’s exactly where we saw this season headed, didn’t we?
Excuse me while I go check the ACC preseason rankings…
Oh.
1. Miami
2. Virginia Tech
3. Georgia Tech
4. Duke
5. Pitt
6. North Carolina
7. Virginia
I bolded the two teams we’re talking about, just in case you forgot.
Fourth and seventh. The only two teams to not get a first-place vote (yes, someone gave a first-place vote to Duke and a first-place vote to North Carolina; as the Kinks said, it’s a mixed-up, muddled-up, shook-up world). And now those two teams are right at the top of the Coastal standings.
Virginia has a slight lead since the Cavaliers are 4-1, but Pitt and Virginia Tech are only a half-game back at 3-1, and all three of those teams will face each other before the season ends. Pitt goes to Virginia tonight. Virginia Tech comes to Heinz Field next week. And the Cavaliers and Hokies will meet in the regular-season finale in Blacksburg.
All of a sudden, one of those “swing games” I’ve talked about in recent weeks is taking on a whole lot more significance, because tonight’s game is going to go a long way in deciding the Coastal Division and which team is going to Charlotte for the ACC title game.
It’s crazy to think about this game having those kinds of implications, but it’s not too crazy to think that Pitt can win it. And if the Panthers do pull it off (I have a thought on that), they’ll be the driver’s seat for the division. That might be a tenuous hold on the spot, but it will be a hold nonetheless.
So just like Pitt had something it could prove against Georgia Tech and then Syracuse and then Duke, now the Panthers have something bigger to prove against Virginia. They’ve earned the right to be in this spot by taking care of business in those other three games (except for - say it with me - That damn North Carolina game), and now they get to do it again at a higher level and with more on the line.
Steve Pederson used to say that the reward for doing a good job is the opportunity to do a better job. I used to think that was a generic motivational tactic - and it kind of is - but it seems to apply here. Pitt’s reward for beating Georgia Tech and Syracuse and Duke is the opportunity to have something really riding on this game tonight, something more than just getting a step closer to bowl eligibility.
And if they win tonight…
ONE PREDICTION
Pitt will win
I said it before the Syracuse game and I said it before the Duke game (I also said it before the North Carolina game, but let’s put that in the general “forget everything about that weekend” pile, thanks).
I’m saying it again: Pitt will win on Friday night against Virginia.
I base that prediction on a couple things. For starters, while Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins has been good this season, I don’t think he’s the same player that Duke quarterback Daniel Jones is, and he’s not running the same kind of offense that Jones runs. Jones is a veteran quarterback who was able to read Pitt’s blitzes and coverages and make the right throws; Perkins is good, but I don’t think he’s on Jones’ level.
Perkins is very mobile with nearly 600 rushing yards this season, and that’s a dangerous threat that Pitt has to be ready for. But I think the Panthers will be ready for it and more or less keep him under control. He’ll get his yards, but I don’t think it will kill Pitt’s defense.
The other big challenge will be containing Olamide Zaccheaus. He’s a halfback/slot receiver who seems like exactly the kind of player to shred the Panthers’ defense. If Pitt can keep him under 100 yards of offense, it will be a win. While there isn’t exactly a ton of precedent for this, I think the staff comes out with some defensive wrinkles to prevent Zaccheaus specifically from beating them.
I also think the Panthers’ offense could turn another corner. Virginia has been really good against the run this year, but Pitt’s rushing attack at it is currently constructed is more dangerous than anything the Cavaliers have seen yet. That’s going to lead UVa. to load up to stop the run, and I think this is a perfect time for a team to overplay in its rush defense, because I think Kenny Pickett is getting closer and closer to being able to consistently make opponents pay for selling out to stop the run.
He didn’t quite do it against Duke, although the use of play-action did create some opportunities in the passing game (even if not all of those opportunities were taken advantage of). If Virginia goes into Friday night’s game thinking run and only run, those opportunities are going to be there once again for Pickett.
Like we said earlier in the column, weapons are developing for Pickett. He’s got players emerging around him, he has his own talents emerging and he’s got some concrete evidence of what he can do; put all of that together, and I think there’s a good chance this offense takes another step forward.
If that happens and if the defense makes just enough plays to keep Virginia more or less under control, the Panthers will walk out of Charlottesville at 4-1 and, at worst, tied for first place in the Coastal.
