The Panther-Lair.com 3-2-1 Column: Youngstown State

The countdown to Pitt’s season opener is on, and today Panther-Lair.com is counting down some of the biggest topics heading toward the game in our new 3-2-1 column, with three things we know, two questions we have and one prediction.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

This is an audition game

It started with the depth chart, where the preponderance of “OR’s” and three-deep listings and all other manners of conveying uncertainty made it clear that the personnel for the Youngstown State game would be decidedly in flux.

Then Pat Narduzzi conceded on Thursday that the Pitt coaches plan to use a lot of players in the opener. Like, a lot of players, as in nearly 22 in rotational duties.

“I think D-line you play four - I mean, in four spots, play eight guys up front,” Narduzzi said. “At the linebacker spot, I could see playing four of five guys; not six. In the secondary, probably four safeties and at corner, probably four corners - three or four corners.”

So even if a defensive end like Rashad Weaver or a cornerback like Damarri Mathis or a safety like Jazzee Stocker isn’t listed as a starter - Mathis gets an “OR” with Dane Jackson at starting cornerback - those players and quite a few others will get a chance to state their cases on Saturday. And the ones who make the strongest cases will probably be the starters next week when Pitt goes to State College.

The backs are auditioning, too

It’s not just the defensive players who are trying to win starting jobs on Saturday; the running backs are expected to have a competition that rivals any on the other side of the ball. Qadree Ollison, whose most common descriptions vacillate between “2015 ACC Rookie of the Year” and “virtual non-presence in 2016”, is the listed starter and will take the field with the first-team offense on Saturday, but what happens after that first snap is anyone’s guess.

Pushing Ollison at this point is junior Darrin Hall, whose injury issues over the last two seasons have kept him mostly off the field (100 rushing attempts in 22 games). But Hall appears to be healthy - he wasn’t in the spring - and has impressed the coaches in training camp. On Saturday, I would expect Ollison and Hall to have at least 10 rushing attempts each; that may not seem like much, but consider that there was only one game last season when two Pitt players recorded at least 10 rushing attempts.

Obviously, most of the carries last season went to James Conner, but that’s the key difference in 2017: there is no James Conner, at least not at the outset. So the coaches are going to feed Ollison and Hall and Chawntez Moss (when he gets into a game) and even freshmen AJ Davis and Todd Sibley carries until one of them earns a Conner-like share of the carries.

And if none of them proves it, then the committee approach will be a year-long endeavor.

YSU will be a challenge - but not as much as it would have been a year ago

Pitt fans will probably always be at least slightly apprehensive going into a game against Youngstown State, what with the after-effects of 2012’s season-opening loss still lingering even five years later. And the fact that these Penguins were in the FCS national championship game a year ago does little to lessen the apprehension.

But these aren’t the same Penguins who went 12-4 before bowing to James Madison in the title game last December. They’ve lost key pieces, not the least of which are defensive ends Avery Moss and Derek Rivers, two powerhouses who combined to put up 37 tackles for loss and 26 sacks last season. Both of those guys are in the NFL right now, and odds are, their replacements aren’t headed for the same post-college path.

Even with Moss and Rivers, YSU gave up nearly 400 passing yards and 235 rushing yards in its one game against an FBS team last season (a 38-21 loss to West Virginia). As the season went on and the Penguins faced more FCS competition, their performance improved, and the team finished No. 21 in FCS in third-down defense, No. 31 in passing yards allowed, No. 26 in rush defense, No. 12 in scoring defense and No. 10 in team sacks.

Those numbers are impressive, but YSU lost a ton of personnel from the unit that created them. In fact, only four starters - two linebackers and two defensive tackles - return from the 2016 team, so the expectation for a downturn is understandable, particularly in the first game of the season and especially against an FBS opponent.

On the other side of the ball, YSU will focus on the run - the Penguins were No. 10 in FCS in rushing offense - but that plays into Pitt’s wheelhouse on defense, as the Panthers are structurally built to stop the run.

This game might not be a blowout, but Pitt should be at least somewhat comfortable in victory.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Will this be a good day for the defense?

A win is a win, and everybody on Pitt’s roster will be happy as long as the Panthers come out with a win (although not everybody was happy after the 76-61 win over Syracuse last season, so…).

But Pitt’s defense does have something to prove this season. To be frank, the Panthers have to prove that they’re not going to be as bad as they were last season. That’s going to be a work-in-progress that takes all fall, but the unit gets its first shot on Saturday.

So what will they do? Will they give up some gaudy numbers to a lower-division team while doing just enough to get a win? Or will they actually make a few plays to put the game decidedly in Pitt’s favor from the start? Obviously, the latter is preferable - not that it would automatically portend continued success throughout the season, but just because it’s better than the alternative.

Because, the thinking will go, if Pitt can’t make plays against Youngstown State, what will the defense do against Penn State and Oklahoma State? It seems better to at least give a semblance of hope in Saturday’s game.

How will all of those new starters do?

Max Browne, Qadree Ollison, Colton Lively, Matt Flanagan, Jimmy Morrissey, Brandon Hodges, Jaryd Jones-Smith, Dewayne Hendrix, Shane Roy, Keyshon Camp, Elijah Zeise, Dane Jackson (or Damarri Mathis), Dennis Briggs, Jazzee Stocker (or Bricen Garner) - 14 players who weren’t primary starters for Pitt in 2016 but are listed as starters in the 2017 depth chart.

And you might as well throw in Saleem Brightwell, who only started two games last year - two games at a different position, no less - and Allen Edwards, who started four. And while you’re at it, Brian O’Neill started every game last year at a different position than the one he’ll be playing this year. Same with Alex Officer.

So you’ve got the receivers, Jester Weah and Quadree Henderson, linebacker Seun Idowu and cornerback Avonte Maddox as returning starters who were primary players at the positions they’ll be manning this year.

That’s almost as much turnover as the Pitt basketball roster has had. Almost.

Of course, there’s no indication that Browne and Flanagan and Hodges and Hendrix and Zeise and Stocker and the rest can’t play well in their new roles. It’s just that no one has actually seen them do it in a game for Pitt. And until we do see them, the question of how they’ll perform will be just that: a question.

ONE PREDICTION

Max Browne will throw for 250+ yards

This has as much to do with Youngstown State as it does with Browne himself and the expectations for him. The Penguins’ losses on defense - like their entire starting secondary and two big pass-rushers - could make them susceptible to the pass. There will be plenty of emphasis on the run - it’s an audition for those players, after all - but Browne should have an opportunity to air it out.

250 might be a bit of a stretch, though. If he hits that mark, Browne will set a career high (actually, he would set a career high if he throws for 192) and Nathan Peterman only threw for 250+ six times last season, three of which came in losses. So the odds are probably against Browne reaching a quarter-century on Saturday - the potential for inclement weather doesn’t help - but with Weah and Henderson and the tight ends and the backup receivers and a solid offensive line and a diminished YSU pass rush…well, anything is possible.