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In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re thinking about more new commitments, the potential for decommitments, retired numbers and more.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
Beatty stays on a roll
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.
Like, if you’ve heard this one this month. A few times
Pitt receivers coach Chris Beatty landed another commitment for the Panthers’ 2021 class on Tuesday when Norfolk (Va.) Lake Taylor three-star running back Malik Newton picked Pitt.
There are several key points in there. Let’s touch on them all:
- That’s four Tidewater area recruits Beatty has landed for Pitt in this class, making up nearly a quarter of the Panthers’ current commitments.
- Newton is ranked as a 5.7 three-star, which is the highest possible Rivals rating for a three-star prospect and puts him right on the cusp of four-star status. He is the No. 18 running back recruit in the country and picked Pitt over offers from Clemson, Louisville, Maryland, Nebraska, Penn State, Purdue, Syracuse, Tennessee, Virginia, Virginia Tech and West Virginia.
- Newton is Pitt’s second running back for the 2021 class, but he’s unique in the class and unique on Pitt’s roster. He’s 6’0” and 220 pounds, bigger than fellow 2021 commit Rodney Hammond and bigger than just about anybody currently suiting up for Pitt at tailback.
- Oh, and he’s pretty good, too. Last season he rushed for 2,000 yards and 37 touchdowns and led his team to the state championship. He was named the All-Tidewater Player of the Year for the second consecutive season - he’ll have a chance for a three-peat this fall - and looks pretty dominant on film.
That’s a pretty good set of factors surrounding this latest commitment, and in a class that is really heavy on offensive recruits - we’ll get to that in a minute - Newton looks like he could be the best. That said, I think the Beatty angle is the one that sticks out the most to me, because it’s really remarkable what he has done for Pitt’s recruiting in Virginia.
From 2002 through the most recent signed recruiting class (2020), Pitt landed 10 players from Virginia. In the class of 2021 alone, the Panthers have four commitments from the commonwealth and a fairly decent chance of getting more before the class is finished.
Part of that is due to emphasis; Pitt offered 124 recruits from Virginia between 2002 and 2020 and already has 50 offers out in Virginia for the next three classes. In the class of 2021 alone, the Panthers have offered 31 recruits. But it’s not just a matter of blanket-offering; Beatty, a Tidewater native himself who coached in the high school ranks there and maintains strong connections, is the bridge between recruits in the 757 and Pitt.
And those recruits are crossing the bridge.
The offensive surge continues
Staying on the continuing theme of continuing themes…
Pitt’s 2021 recruiting class has 13 commitments and nine of them are offensive players.
Honestly, I’m not sure if I’ll stop being amazed by the imbalance in this class. As we’ve talked about before, the trend under Pat Narduzzi has been for Pitt to recruit more numbers on defense than offense. Almost every class since Narduzzi arrived has leaned to defense, sometimes in a rather heavy imbalance. The 2017 class was the only one with a significant offensive tilt when 14 of the 24 recruits played on that side of the ball; now the 2021 class seems to be headed that way.
The class is currently heavy on offense, and I don’t think the staff is done yet. They’ve got their quarterback and two running backs, so those positions are probably full. But I think they’ll keep trying for more receivers, more offensive linemen and, obviously, more tight ends.
It’s not necessarily that they need more linemen and receivers. They’ve already got four of the former and two of the latter; that would suffice for most classes. But 2021 is a unique year for Pitt. The Panthers are looking at signing a large class, and sometimes you hit points in the turnover of your roster where you need some big numbers to maintain depth for the future.
So it won’t be a surprise at all to see at least one more offensive lineman and one more receiver in the class. That would put them at 11 offensive commitments, at a minimum, and it doesn’t even address the tight end question.
Now, I’ll be the first to admit that I’m in the believe-it-when-I-see-it camp with Pitt and tight end commitments. I believe that Pitt will get one or two tight ends in this class, but I kind of need to actually see that happen before I’m counting those chickens.
But if the coaches manage to get two tight ends - which is what they need for the roster - that would be 13 offensive recruits in the class. That might be it; the coaches might stop there, and if the class gets to 23 or 24, it would be a 13/10 or 13/11 split. Or they could push for a sixth offensive lineman; I wouldn’t rule that out.
Either way, the imbalance in this class is going to favor the offense. I’m pretty sure of that. And if the coaches have evaluated the talent properly, this will be the class that rebuilds the foundation of Pitt’s offense for the next five years.
It wasn’t just offense
Malik Newton wasn’t the only new commitment this week, though, as Pitt added another one on Thursday night to bring the class to 14.
The latest commitment came from Noah Biglow, a 6’0” cornerback from Armwood High School outside Tampa. Biglow was somewhat off the radar; after all, he had been on Iowa State’s commitment list since early April, and while flipping recruits is nothing new - Pitt has done it and had it done to them - that phenomena sometimes feels like it came out of nowhere.
Nevertheless, Biglow gives Pitt its first cornerback commitment in the class, and that’s a position where I think the staff is going to try to load up in this class. While Pat Narduzzi has made defensive back recruiting a point of emphasis since he arrived at Pitt, the roster is actually at a point this offseason where depth is something of an issue.
The Panthers have Jason Pinnock and Damarri Mathis, of course, but that’s really it in terms of experienced players. Behind them are Marquis Williams, Judson Tallandier and AJ Woods. Williams has the most experience but it doesn’t amount to much, so there are plenty of question marks in that trio.
After them, the Panthers have three freshmen: Rashad Battle, Jahvante Royal and Hunter Sellers. That’s a nice number to have with six players behind the two starters, but not all of those freshmen will stay at cornerback. They’ll start off there to see who has the ability to stick at the position, but some of them - at least one and possibly more - will move to safety.
So with Pinnock and Mathis done after the 2020 season and questions about the depth on the roster, cornerback has actually become something of a focal point in the 2021 class. Biglow is the first commitment at the position, but he won’t be the last.
Still, he’s not a bad start. When you watch Biglow’s film, the first thing you see are the interceptions. Eight of them, to be exact; they are the first eight plays on his highlights and in those 95 seconds you see a big part of what made him appealing to the Pitt staff.
He can cover; that much is certain and it’s sort of a baseline requirement for getting recruited as a Power Five cornerback. But more than that, he’s got awareness. He finds the ball and he goes and gets it. A bunch of his interceptions come from bad offensive plays - off-target passes, underthrown balls, etc. - but I’ll take a cornerback who is opportunistic. Give me the guy who can cover but also keep an eye on what’s happening when the ball is in the air.
That’s what Biglow does and he made opposing offenses pay eight times last season.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
Should Pitt retire another jersey?
This conversation comes up from time to time and I have given my opinion on it before, but it has probably been a year or thereabouts, so I’m going down this road again.
Pitt should retire one more number and it should be 97.
Okay, a few caveats.
Pitt has already retired 10 numbers. That’s too many. I’m not going to single out any players, but I don’t think all 10 of those numbers need to be retired.
1, 13, 33, 42, 65, 73, 75, 79, 89, 99.
That’s the list, and it could probably be trimmed. But that’s not going to happen; they retired those 10 numbers, so those numbers should stay retired. The question is whether any additional numbers should be added to the rafters (or, as they call them at Heinz Field, the rotundas).
I see suggestions all the time about retiring this number or that number - 25 is a popular choice and 24 gets mentioned a lot, too - but I think there should be something special about number retirement. I think just being good or even great isn’t enough to merit number retirement. I think you need to be something approaching transcendent, something generational.
Pitt has had many great players and even more really good ones. But the list of generational players is much shorter. I’m talking about the guys who legitimately belong on a list of not just the greatest players in Pitt history but the list of the greatest players in the history of college football.
Larry Fitzgerald. Tony Dorsett. Hugh Green. Bill Fralic. These are all-time, best-in-the-game players. They should have their numbers retired.
And so should Aaron Donald.
Forget his pro career; that’s not what this is about. Donald was legitimately the best in the game when he played at Pitt, and his senior season of 2013 stands as one of the best by a defensive tackle. He had 11 sacks and 28.5 tackles for loss while forcing four fumbles and breaking up three passes.
Four years earlier, Ndamukong Suh went to New York City as a Heisman Trophy finalist after recording 12 sacks, 24 tackles for loss, 10 pass breakups and one forced fumble while playing one more game than Donald did.
But Donald didn’t play for a 10-win Big Ten team or have an interesting name like Ndamukong, so he didn’t get invited to New York City.
Major award presenters took notice, though, and he claimed some serious hardware:
The Rotary Lombardi Award, which was then presented to the best lineman or linebacker. The Outland Trophy, which was presented to the top interior lineman in the nation. The Chuck Bednarik Award, presented to the top defensive player by the Maxwell Football Club. And the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, presented to the top defensive player by the Charlotte Touchdown Club.
That’s four major awards; no other Pitt player, not even Dorsett, won that many. Now, two of Donald’s awards - the Bendarik and the Nagurski - are relatively new (both were introduced in the last 30 years), but even if you only focus on the two older awards, that still puts him in rarified air. Only three other Pitt players have won at least two major awards: Tony Dorsett (he won three), Hugh Green (so did he) and Larry Fitzgerald (he “only” won two).
What do those guys all have in common? That’s right: they all have their numbers retired.
Aaron Donald is truly one of the all-time greats in Pitt history, and his number should get hung up.
Nobody else, though.
What about the other guys?
We’ll continue that thought just for a little bit. Because inevitably someone reading this is thinking of a great Pitt player whose name I didn’t mention and how they should definitely be in consideration for number retirement.
Guys like LeSean McCoy and Darrelle Revis, James Conner and Craig “Ironhead” Heyward. Great players, all of them. But not quite at the level of a Fitzgerald or a Dorsett or a Green (or a Donald).
Pitt should be able to find a way to honor them, too, right? Maybe you don’t have to take their numbers out of commission, but something should be done, shouldn’t it?
The common suggestion is a ring of honor; I think that’s a pretty good one. It would help if Pitt had its own stadium; then a permanent ring of honor could be installed with those players’ names and numbers on it. But even given the current circumstances, I think the Athletic Department could find a way to make something happen.
They’ve got the Pitt Athletics Hall of Fame, and that’s cool. But why not create a special recognition for football? I think that would be a good way to honor some of those great players while also highlighting them and reinforcing their affiliation with the Panthers.
Except for one. There’s one thing I would do with a number that should have some special meaning for Pitt fans.
24.
James Conner was one of the great players in Pitt history on the merit of his performances. He is Pitt’s second-leading rusher of all-time. He had the No. 4 all-time single-season rushing total by a Pitt running back. He finished his career as the ACC’s all-time leader in touchdowns. He led Pitt in rushing three times - the first time a player had done that since Curvin Richards in the late 1980’s.
And then there’s the off-field angle, where Conner went from being a bruising running back to a symbol of hope and resilience. His battle against Hodgkin’s lymphoma and subsequent return to the football field was one of the feel-good stories in sports in 2016, and almost immediately, his jersey became nearly as ubiquitous at Pitt games as those of Dorsett or Marino or Fitzgerald.
To this day, his No. 24 jersey remains one that carries extra meaning, so I think Pitt should use that extra meaning.
Don’t retire 24; give it to a player, someone that the coaching staff and the rest of the team believe has earned it. Someone who represents the spirit and will and hard work that came to be associated with Conner in the final seasons of his Pitt career.
24 is a pretty versatile number; it would fit on just about any position. It might stand out on an offensive lineman, but if it’s handled the right way, that conspicuousness would be part of the appeal, a badge of honor.
I don’t know how you would handle deciding who gets to wear it; maybe a vote of the team or a decision by a group of leaders, something like that. But I think Pitt has an opportunity to make that jersey number special for reasons that go beyond what a player accomplished on the field.
Every tradition starts somewhere. I think that would be a cool one for Pitt to explore.
ONE PREDICTION
There won’t be a surge of decommitments
This is a funny thing to write the day after Pitt’s latest commitment came from a recruit who decommitted, but hear me out on this.
First of all, this spring has seen a huge spike in commitments. That’s been documented in various plays as a national trend, but just speaking for the Pitt beat, I can say that I’ve never seen anything like this in 15 years of covering Pitt recruiting.
14 commitments before the end of May? That’s an absurd number, one we never would have dreamed of seeing in a typical year. But this is about as far from a typical year as you can get, and Pitt is right in the thick of things nationally with more than a dozen verbal pledges.
The flip side to all the commitments, though, is that the prospect of decommitments invariably rises. It makes sense by the numbers: more commitments = more decommitments.
But will decommitments happen at a higher rate? Will there be a higher percentage of decommitments than in recent years? I don’t think so, and I’ll tell you why.
We’ll focus on Pitt. We’ve seen Pitt experience more early commitments in the last two years than in prior years and, at the same time, we’ve seen Pitt experience more decommitments. There seems to be a correlation. But at least one factor is different this year, and I think it’s a key one.
In the last two years, Pitt landed a ton of early commitments from June official visits. The NCAA just started allowing spring official visits two years ago and Pitt capitalized. The problem was, not all of those recruits stuck; often, they continued hearing from coaches of other teams, and by late November or early December, they were convinced to take an additional official visit or two.
Official visits are, by design, a great experience. They are meant to make you feel like you don’t want to leave campus, that you want to stay there forever. That’s the goal, and good coaching staffs are pretty effective at creating that experience.
So you’ll have a recruit who visits School A in June, loves it and commits. Then, five months later, he keeps hearing from a coach at School B so he decides to take one more visit before he signs. He goes to check out School B, loves the visit and starts to think that he wants to be at School B more than School A. After all, he hasn’t spent a weekend on campus at School A since June; that memory is old and faded. The memory of the visit to School B is fresh and new.
Guess what happens?
More often than not, that recruit flips his commitment.
It happened to Pitt multiple times in each of the last two classes.
This year is different, though. The 14 recruits who have committed to Pitt so far did so without an official visit (some haven’t even visited unofficially). They made their decisions for a variety of reasons, but they weren’t based on one amazing weekend.
That’s a good thing for Pitt. Because as other schools continue to court those recruits and try to get them on campus for a visit, Pat Narduzzi and his staff will have one extra bit of ammo this year:
They’ll still have the official visit.
So maybe Malik Newton or Terrence Enos or somebody in Pitt’s class decides to go visit somewhere else. Okay, fine. You’d prefer that not to happen, but it probably will. It’s okay, though, because Pitt will still be able to bring them back to campus for an official visit that will, ideally, serve as reinforcement of their original commitment.
That’s the difference this year, and I think it will result in more schools holding onto early commitments at a higher rate than the last two years. It’s not to say that Pitt won’t have any decommitments; there will probably be one or two. But I don’t think the surge in early commitments will have an equal and opposite reaction later in the cycle.
