The 3-2-1 Column: Time to Brawl in hoops and a big game in Virginia

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Today we are looking ahead to two very important games this weekend for Pitt athletics. The Pitt football team heads to Charlottesville to take on Virginia in an ACC Coastal clash, while the basketball team hosts West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl.

It will be a jam-packed weekend for Pitt athletics and that warrants a jam-packed 3-2-1 Column.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

100 games for Pat Narduzzi
When Pitt hits the field on Saturday for a noon kickoff against the Virginia Cavaliers, it will be the 100th time Pat Narduzzi has led the University of Pittsburgh out of the tunnel as its head football coach. Narduzzi owns a 58-41 record entering this weekend, and is also 38-25 in conference games during his tenure. He will become the third coach in program history to coach for at least 100 games in a tenure joining John Michelosen, who coached the team for 112 games from 1955-1965, and also Jock Sutherland’s 143-game tenure that spanned 1924-1938.

Narduzzi is third all-time in Pitt history with his 58 total wins, just two games behind the legendary Pop Warner and the school’s all-time leader Sutherland, who has 111 career victories. Obviously after Saturday, his career winning percentage will sit at 58% or 59%, which is obviously behind legends like Sutherland, Warner, Johnny Majors, and Jackie Sherill, but ahead of more recent coaches like Paul Chryst, Walt Harris, and Dave Wannstedt.

Narduzzi was hired ahead of the 2015 season. He came to Pitt after a successful run of being one of the top defensive coordinators in college football. Narduzzi also took over the program after some years of strife. From 2010 through 2014 Pitt had seven different coaches hold the distinction of head coach, obviously that includes interim coaches, but during that stretch Pitt went from Wannstedt to Mike Haywood (for a day or two) to Todd Grahm to Paul Chryst.

The school was looking for two things in its next hire after those years of chaos: stability and identity. Narduzzi appears to have delivered on both accounts. He started at Pitt in 2015, and with a recent contract extension, he will be here up through the 2030 season.

That’s pretty stable.

Sherill’s 1981 team won the Sugar Bowl and finished with an 11-1 record that season. It is considered one of the better teams in school history. Since then, Pitt has had nine coaches to coach at least one full season, and Narduzzi is the only one that has been able to match that 11-win total.

Since joining the Big East in 1992 after years as playing as an independent, Narduzzi is the only coach to deliver an outright conference title to Pitt, after he secured the ACC title a season ago.

The Pitt coach developed a reputation as a giant killer in the early stages of his tenure. He was able to lead Pitt to two top-5 upsets early on with a memorable 43-42 win in 2016 over eventual national champion Clemson, and also stopped Miami’s undefeated season in its tracks in 2017.

Narduzzi’s tenure is certainly lifted by what he accomplished in 2021, but the fact of the matter is that it all happened. The banner has been lifted and it's not going anywhere. He put together the best season since 1981 for Pitt, and many coaches before him had the chance to do the same and never delivered.

Under Narduzzi’s guidance, 19 Pitt players have been drafted into the NFL that have played under him. In the years between his tenure and Wannstedt’s, Pitt only saw four players drafted, including being shutout of the draft on two occasions. He also gets a feather in his cap for producing the best quarterback this program has seen since Dan Marino. Kenny Pickett made a serious run at a Heisman Trophy before becoming Pitt’s first quarterback taken in the first round since the legendary Marino.

The team has built an identity under the current head coach. Pitt has been one of the top defensive teams in the country, especially at rushing the passer. With Narduzzi at the helm, you sort of tend to know what you are getting when you play a Pitt team these days. As a native of Youngstown, he sort of feels like a Pittsburgher at this point, right? There is something to be said for having a head coach that is more, less ‘home’ and wants to be right where he is and I think that somewhat ties into the team’s identity.

While there have been a lot of positives in Narduzzi’s tenure, there have been some setbacks. There is no denying that.

There have been five offensive coordinators during his tenure, with some being better than others, to put it mildly. His unfiltered commentary on some of his former assistant coaches and other topics for that matter, have turned people that wrong way as well. He does speak his mind, perhaps more than he should.

Narduzzi does rank third all-time in school wins, but also is fourth in career losses with 41. He is 1-4 in bowl games, and aside from the 2021 season, has lost at least 5 games every year with this year potentially being added to that list. Also, in an age where the emphasis on recruiting is a big business (thanks for subscribing!), Narduzzi has only delivered one top-25 signing class.

Narduzzi has accomplished some great things for Pitt, but he has also left some wins on the table through the years, and this current underachieving season after being ranked in the preseason is certainly on the forefront of that discussion.

I can’t tell you what to feel about Pitt’s head coach and the first 100 games of his tenure, that’s up for the fans to decide. Like him or hate him, this will be game 100 and I don’t see him going anywhere anytime soon.

A different scenario when Pitt meets Virginia
Pitt hosted Virginia last season in a key ACC Coastal showdown. The Panthers entered the game ranked No. 18 in the country with an 8-2 record. Virginia came into the game with a 6-4 mark. A Pitt win would have given the Panthers the ACC Coastal, while a Virginia victory would have put the Cavaliers in control.

The game also featured two of the top quarterbacks and offenses in the country with Kenny Pickett leading Pitt, and Brennan Armstrong orchestrating the Virginia attack. A lot was on the line, and the game lived up to the hype. Pickett and the Panthers prevailed 48-38 on the strength of four touchdown passes from Pickett to Jordan Addison. Pitt never looked back after that and won the ACC.

Now let’s break down how Saturday’s game between Pitt and Virginia looks. Pitt is 5-4 and Virginia is 3-6. Both teams are out of contention for the ACC Coastal, and those prolific offenses from a year ago seem like distant memories.

I think by now we’re all aware of what happened with Pitt this season, but Virginia is an interesting team for many reasons. Head coach Bronco Mendenhall abruptly resigned following last season and was replaced by longtime Clemson offense coordinator Tony Elliott.

The Cavaliers brought back Brennan Armstrong, along with two of his favorites weapons in Keytaon Thompson and Dontayvion Wicks. That should have been enough to keep the powerful offense at least formidable, but it has been anything but for the ‘Hoos. Virginia ranks 122nd in the nation in scoring the ball with an 18.1 point per game average, a very far cry from the team that posted 34.6 points per game a season ago.

Armstrong was on fire in 2021 with over 4,400 yards and 31 touchdown passes. In last year’s meeting with Pitt alone he threw for five touchdowns at Heinz Field. To put things in perspective, Armstrong has only six touchdowns through nine games this season.

The contrast is almost mind boggling.

For as much as the offense has been a change for the Cavaliers in a year’s time, it’s been equally as dramatic of a contrast for the defense…in a good way. Virginia is 36th in total defense this year after finishing 121st a season ago. New defensive coordinator John Rudzinski has brought an attacking scheme to Charlottesville, and the results show. The 30 sacks recorded by Virginia through nine games is the fourth highest total in the country.

For as much of the game in 2021 was about the high-powered offenses, the 2022 version will be a defensive battle. Given Pitt’s style of play this year with a more run oriented attack, and a similar drop off as Virginia in the passing game, I think the Panthers are comfortable with Saturday’s contest being a slugfest and relying on defense and giving the ball to their running backs.

College football is a funny game.

In one season you can have two of the best offenses in college football battling out for a division title, and less than 365 days later…well you can have this particular matchup that will take place Saturday at noon.

An encouraging opening game for Pitt hoops

Pitt defeated Tennessee-Martin by a score of 80-58 on Monday night to kick off the 2022-23 college basketball. It was a welcomed change for the previous two season openers that saw Pitt drop games to St. Francis and The Citadel. In Monday’s contest, the Panthers played without star big man John Hugley. Despite not having their best player, Pitt rolled rather easily to a comfortable win.

Dare I say…the team actually looked pretty good?

I am not trying to get out and ahead of anything after one result, but it’s hard not to be encouraged by what the team showed on Monday. Maybe that is because the bar has been set so low after only winning 11 games last season, and the previous five years for this program have not been much to speak of either. Even with all that in mind, something did feel a little different with that performance that unfolded on Monday.

Pitt played good team basketball, something I think that has eluded them in recent seasons. The Panthers made 26 field goals on Monday, and there was an assist on 21 of those baskets. Senior guards Nelly Cummings and Jamarius Burton played like…senior guards. They both dished out seven assists, and kept an eye out for their teammates throughout the game. Cummings in particular seemed to have good vision for finding big man Federiko Federiko for easy finishes.

The Panthers also played good defense, especially on the perimeter, which has been a recurring issue from time to time over the years. The Skyhawks were just 3-of-19 from three-point range. They shot 32% from the field, and in fairness their best stretch of offense for the game was in garbage time when the Pitt starters were on the bench. They were down by 33 points with 3 minutes left, and used a 13-2 run to close out the game to make it look a little more respectable, but in reality it wasn’t even that close.

The size in the lineup was also very noteworthy for the Panthers, because it has been a struggle to land useful big men to this program aside from Hugley. Without him on the floor, the team did not seem lost or slowed down by his absence. Federiko, along with the twins Guillermo and Jorge Diaz Graham, combined for 17 points, 14 rebounds, and six blocks. Not bad for a trio all making their Division-1 college basketball debut. Federiko in particular was sensational with 13 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 blocks.

The other thing that really stood out from Monday was the play of Blake Hinson. He was outstanding. The Iowa State transfer hadn’t played a college basketball game in two seasons, and really made up for lost time with that performance. He scored 27 points and grabbed 13 rebounds, recording a double double in his Pitt debut was quite an introduction.

It looked good on Monday, but it was also UT-Martin. My biggest criticism was that they seemingly settled for a few too many three-pointers, but maybe that could have been a product of not having Hugley on the floor as well. I don’t want to proclaim this team is off to great things based off of one game, but it’s hard not to see some upside here as well.

The season started on good footing and that’s worth something for a program trying to crawl out of its own way. We’ll see if it can continue…

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Can Pitt finally beat West Virginia?
It’s tired, overplayed, and has been done before…but I just pulled the ‘yea…but’ setup here in the 3-2-1 column. YEA Pitt looked great on Monday against UT-Martin, BUT can that continue on Friday when they host the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Backyard Brawl?

Pitt and West Virginia will get together on Friday night at the Petersen Events Center for the 189th time in the basketball edition of the Backyard Brawl. The rivalry dates back to 1906 with West Virginia leading the all-time series 100-88. More importantly, West Virginia has won five in a row against the Panthers. Pitt has not defeated the Mountaineers since 2012, when both programs were members of the Big East.

The two schools started a non-conference series in 2017, and the Mountaineers have won all four games so far, including a 74-59 rout in Morgantown last year, a game in which the Panthers committed a ridiculous 32 turnovers. The last time the game was in Pittsburgh, West Virginia came in and dominated that 2019 matchup, and the Mountaineer faithful happily cheered on from the upper decks of the Pete in the closing seconds.

Pitt really owes West Virginia some payback.

Bob Huggins is one of the the best to ever do it. He’s been a head coach in Division-1 basketball since 1984. He has over 900 career wins. Huggins is a legend. When you play a Huggins’ coached team, you know what you are getting. They will play defense, be physical, and challenge you for 40 minutes.

Pitt just hasn’t been up to that kind challenge in recent years, and truthfully, these have not been great West Virginia teams either. I mean Pitt turned the ball over 32 times last year, and the Mountaineers ended up finishing below .500 for the season. West Virginia has only made the NCAA Tournament once in the past four seasons, but despite not being a great team, they’ve controlled these Backyard Brawl games rather easily. At a certain point, Pitt needs to meet West Virginia on the floor and punch them back so to speak. Perhaps this is that year for Pitt to show they belong on the floor with their rivals to the South.

West Virginia is picked to finish 9th in the Big 12 this season. It is a team that is completely made up of transfers. They have talent, but much like Pitt, it’s a new look team dominated by new faces that still need to come together. Tre Mitchell, a Texas transfer by way of UMass, is a Pittsburgh native and the Mountaineers’ most talented post player. He was very successful at UMass in his first two seasons, and will be looking to have a bounce back senior year closer to home. Emmitt Mathews is another talented veteran forward that began his career at West Virginia before a stop at Washington for a year, and is now back in Morgantown, and is one of the top options for Huggins this year.

Erik Stevensen and Joe Toussaint make up the backcourt, and you guessed it, they are from the transfer portal. I guess the point I’m making is that this is not an established West Virginia team. The Mountaineers have good pieces, but with this being an early-season game, they aren’t a well-oiled machine just yet.

Pitt needs to take advantage of that, even though they are very much in the same boat. It should be equal footing in terms of players adjusting to new teams, but Pitt has the benefit of getting this game at home in front of the Oakland Zoo.

We saw how much the return of the Backyard Brawl meant to both schools on the football side. It was a nationally televised event that benefitted both schools by giving them a huge stage in front of a national audience. The game is good thing for each side, and as both schools have never really developed true rivalries in their new respective conferences.

The Brawl still mattered after a long hiatus in football, and it still should matter in basketball, too. It’s a big game opportunity for this Pitt team trying to make a name for itself, and it has felt like a while Pitt basketball has simply won a big game. This is a chance to do just that.

I am not sure if year five of Jeff Capel’s tenure is a make or break year, but it might as well be. Pitt needs to show signs of progress on the court and on the recruiting trail. The Panthers need to win more games in general, but they also have to start winning some games that matter also.

The Backyard Brawl matters.

Pitt needs a couple of big wins this year for sure, and collecting an early season one over a rival would be a nice start. This is a big chance for Pitt to make an early season statement. We will see what they do with it.

Would winning out make this season a success?
There is a hypothetical world where the 2022 Pitt Panthers can still win 9 football games this season. In order to get there, they would need to win three more regular season games against the likes of Virginia, Duke, and Miami, three teams with a 16-17 record on the season. Pitt would also need to win a bowl game to reach nine.

That does not seem like too daunting of a challenge on paper and in theory winning nine games is not out of the question. Now given how this Pitt team has performed throughout stretches of the season, counting wins would not be a wise choice. Pitt has been wildly unpredictable, and with the offense struggling so much, you really never know what is going to happen each Saturday.

Setting all the realities aside about this 2022 season, let’s get back into the hypotheticals, because those are more fun to discuss at least.

Would winning 9 games be a successful season?

Would ending the season with five straight wins matter?

Is a 9-4 record good enough to finish the season ranked?

Those are all valid questions, and it really goes back to personal expectations you had for this Pitt team. Given the No. 17 preseason ranking, that 9-win range was probably about what was expected of this team from outside parties. But, the internal optimism around this team was high, rightfully so might I add, so there was a belief around the Pitt football team that they could achieve higher than 9 wins, or perhaps repeat as ACC Champions, and maybe even take it a step further.

Losing to Tennessee wasn’t totally unexpected and the Volunteers are likely much better than we all realized at the time of that game in September. But the later losses to Georgia Tech and Louisville were real head scratchers. Those defeats set the season off the tracks, not games like Tennessee or North Carolina.

I’m not here to proclaim Pitt is going to win out, or anything like that, but rather I’m here to propose the question: Would 9-4 matter to you?

I think it would, or at least should. Nine wins this season would give Pitt 20 wins over a two-year stretch. Do you want to know the last time Pitt won 20 or more games in a two-year stretch? 1982. Pitt went 11-1 in 1981, and followed that up with a 9-3 season in 1982. The best two-year run Pitt has had in the meantime would be the 19 wins in 2008 and 2009. The Panthers went 9-4 under Dave Wannstedt in 2008, and followed that up with a 10-3 mark the following season.

I know this 2022 season is lost from the standpoint of winning any type of championship, but Pitt only has four 9+ win seasons since 1982 (2002, 2008, 2009, 2021), and I still think getting there this season would be some kind of accomplishment, even knowing the circumstances of how they got there.

I don’t know what will happen down the stretch, Pitt might lost to Virginia 10-3 this weekend for all I know. They have been impossible to predict, but winning out is at least plausible given the opposition, and I still think there would be something to say about this season if they finished strong.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt takes care of business on Saturday
I am predicting Pitt beats Virginia on Saturday. The Panthers enter Saturday as 4.5-point favorites on the road. Pitt won last year’s meeting, and own a 9-4 advantage in the all-time series.

Pitt is a better football team than Virginia, and I think in the end the result will reflect that. The Panthers will improve to 6-4 following the game against the Cavaliers and earn bowl eligibility in the process.

I was highly encouraged by what I saw last week from Pitt on the defensive side of the ball. That was a defense that smelled blood in the water and punched Syracuse every chance they got. The Panthers completely took Sean Tucker out of the game, and made life incredibly difficult on backup quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson with six sacks and only allowed him to complete 8 passes. They were dominant.

Given the way Virginia has struggled this season on offense, I believe the Panthers will take a similar defensive approach. The Cavaliers have some weapons that can worry you to be sure, but nine games into the 2022 season it has yet to click for them. I think Pitt has a good enough defense to make the plays necessary to win the game and exploit a struggling offense.

On the flip side, I do have concerns about the Pitt offense, especially with the unknown status of Israel Abanikanda, but last week they showed they still can be effective with Rodney Hammond leading the charge on offense. It still comes down to hitting on some passing plays for this team, and Kedon Slovis has been finding Jared Wayne more in recent weeks, so that's something.

Pitt has left a lot on the table this season relative to initial expectations, but I still think closing strong would be worth something and I think the train continues on Saturday with a win in Charlottesville.