The 3-2-1 Column: The Whipple hire, the schedule and Pitt in the tourney

(Okay, let’s stop right there and ruminate on that for a moment. This position has entered the realm of Spinal Tap’s drummer. Four in five years is a pretty crazy amount of turnover, and I couldn’t help but notice that Pitt Athletic Director Heather Lyke told the Post-Gazette that she thinks Narduzzi “needs continuity of staffing,” which would almost seem to imply that she maybe sort of would have liked to see Shawn Watson retained. Maybe I’m reading too much into that. But I digress.)

So, Narduzzi needed an offensive coordinator again, and I suspect his search started shortly after the Sun Bowl. Watson was officially announced as being fired on Friday, Jan. 4, but Narduzzi was likely already into the hunt by then, and things came together relatively quickly, at least compared to the previous coordinator hires.

As we all know, Narduzzi decided to offer the job to Mark Whipple, a 61-year old veteran of coaching who has been a lot of places - a head coach in college football at both the FCS and FBS levels, a coordinator at a Power Five school and as an assistant in the NFL. His name is known locally for being the Steelers’ quarterbacks coach in the first few years of Ben Roethlisberger’s career, and he’s generally well-respected as an offensive mind throughout the sport.

The final verdict on Whipple will be rendered about 11 months from now (although there will certainly be plenty of non-final verdicts issued after every possession - or every play - in the upcoming season). But what can we say about it in the meantime?

From my vantage point, I think Narduzzi got just about exactly what he needed and probably exactly what he wanted. This was a situation where Narduzzi’s focus had to be and likely was on a pretty specific type of coach: an experienced coordinator with a resume of successful play-calling and quarterback development.

Those two qualities - play-calling and quarterback development - were right at the top of the list, especially since they seemed to be somewhat lacking with Watson.

Of course, it doesn’t hurt that Whipple seems to favor the same kind of offense Narduzzi is looking for: an emphasis on ball control through the run game complemented with an effective passing game. That second part was obviously lacking in the last two seasons, and there again, Whipple has a proven resume (his UMass teams threw the ball quite a bit, although they were playing from behind, so that may have been a product of necessity rather than preference).

To sum it up, I think Whipple was probably as close to a “sure thing” as Narduzzi was going to find in this search. Yes, Matt Canada was involved, and yes, he probably was open to coming back to Pitt. But those discussions didn’t go the way they needed to go, and Narduzzi moved on to other candidates, guys like Joe Rudolph or Luke Getsy, who were both rumored to be involved with the opening.

Both were intriguing options, coaches without a ton of play-calling experience but a fair amount of upside. At this point, though, Narduzzi doesn’t need upside; he needs something more proven because…

This is the most important hire of the Narduzzi era
It really is.

Whipple is the 17th assistant coach Narduzzi has hired since taking the Pitt job in December 2014, and I can’t think of one among the previous 16 who ranks as more important, more crucial to the long-term prospects of Narduzzi’s Pitt tenure than this one.

Because we’re approaching a crossroads in the Narduzzi Era. Hell, we might already be at the crossroads. But Narduzzi isn’t selling his soul to play guitar; he’s gearing up for an absolutely crucial season.

We’ve talked so many times about how the 2018 season could be seen through two perspectives at the same time. There’s the Coastal Division championship, an unabashed tangible point of success. And there’s the seemingly-impossible 7-7 record - .500 being the unabashed tangible point of mediocrity - with a three-game losing streak at the end and several blowouts in high-profile games.

2018 was both good and bad, successful and mediocre, a high achievement and deeply unsatisfying. And just like it’s hard to get a firm grasp, good or bad, on what 2018 was, it’s also hard to get a firm grasp on where Narduzzi is in his era at Pitt.

Which means 2019 is going to go a long way in defining that era - whether that’s good or bad.

And since we all know the offense was as big a missing piece as anything last season - Pitt lost to UNC, Notre Dame and Stanford by a combined total of 10 points - it’s not hard to do the math here:

N = Defense x expected improvement + Y

Y is the state of the offense. N is the success of the season. So if we’re solving for N, we need a value for Y.

And if we put even more weight on it, if we assume that N is not just a representation of 2019’s success but also a factor in R, which would be the long-term prospects for Narduzzi at Pitt, then it gets pretty serious and the value of Y becomes very significant.

That was all a long way and unnecessarily complicated way of saying, if Pitt doesn’t figure out its offense this season, then Narduzzi could very well enter 2020 on the hot seat. I really think it all depends on that. The defense is going to continue to do what it has been doing for the better part of the last season and a half: playing pretty well in most games but giving up points in bunches against better offenses.

Pitt needs its offense to be able to capitalize on those games when the defense plays well and then make up the difference when the defense gets beat.

Basic stuff, I know, but Narduzzi has a lot riding on this. If Whipple can get more points out of the offense this season, the Panthers can win a bunch of games. They scored more than 24 points in just six games last season, including the win over Albany. That’s a fairly modest target - 95 teams in the nation averaged at least 25 points per game last season - but given that Pitt also lost three games in 2018 when holding the opponent to 24 or less, it seems like a good number to shoot for.

Get to 25 (or 20, or 15) in those three games, and Pitt’s coming off a 10-4 season with a division title, a road victory over a top-five team and a bowl win to christen the offseason while having won six of the final seven games. That’s a totally different scene than what we’re dealing with now.

To make sure that Pat Narduzzi’s tenure at Pitt is a long, healthy one, that’s the kind of scene the Panthers need for next offseason. And to get that kind of scene, the offense has to get better.

So yeah, the Whipple hire is a pretty important one.

Numbers
This isn’t so much a “thing I know” as it is a look at some numbers. While I was writing that last segment, I was looking at wins and losses and points scored and points allowed and figured I wouldn’t let all that research go to waste.

So the first number is 52. That’s how many games Pat Narduzzi has coached at Pitt, and it seems like a good place to start.

Of those 52 games, Pitt’s defense has held the opponent to less than 30 points 27 times. The Panthers are 19-8 in those 27 games. It probably wouldn’t surprise you to know that, of those 27 games when the defense held the opponent under 30, only 3 happened in the 2016 season.

A year earlier in Narduzzi’s inaugural season, Pitt’s defense held 9 opponents to less. 2017 wasn’t too shabby either: the Panthers held 7 of 12 teams to less than 30 that year. This past season, Pitt’s defense hit that mark 8 times.

Of the 8 losses when allowing less than 30 points, 3 happened this season (Notre Dame, Miami and Stanford) and 3 happened in 2015 (Miami, North Carolina and Iowa). The other two games Pitt lost when giving up less than 30 were in 2017: Virginia Tech and Syracuse. All 8 of those games happened on the road. Pitt is 11-0 under Narduzzi when allowing less than 30 points at home.

Duke, Virginia and Virginia Tech have faced Narduzzi four times each, and he is 10-2 in those games. Of those 12 contests, the Blue Devils, Cavaliers and Hokies have combined to top 30 points just 3 times (Virginia and Virginia Tech in 2016, Duke in 2018).

On the other side, Pitt has scored 30 or more in 23 games under Narduzzi (again, out of 52 total games played). The Panthers are 17-6 in those 23 games, but 4 of those losses happened in Narduzzi’s first two seasons. 2016 was particularly rough, as Pitt lost 3 games when scoring 30 or more - Oklahoma State, North Carolina and Virginia Tech.

The Panthers have scored 30 or more in each of their last 3 losses to North Carolina, which makes those losses sting even more (if that’s possible).

In 2018, Pitt was 5-1 when scoring at least 30 points (again, the only loss was UNC). A year earlier, the Panthers only topped 30 points in 3 games. So, if nothing else, Pitt’s offense was better in 2018 than it was in 2017 by doubling its number of 30-point performances (albeit with two more games).

So there’s some numbers to digest or consider.

Now let’s talk about Whipple some more.

TWO QUESTIONS

How will Whipple handle the quarterback situation?
From where I sit, it looks like there were two angles to the Whipple hire: play-calling and quarterback development. Experience and resume were factors, of course, but only in relation to those two primary elements - play-calling and quarterback development.

The first part is pretty important, to be sure. I think play-calling, more than any other individual factor, was probably Shawn Watson’s shortcoming and what ultimately led to his dismissal. But that second part shouldn’t be overlooked, and it might be of equal significance.

Pat Narduzzi knows a lot is riding on the improvement of the offense, and to get an offense to improve, you’re going to need the quarterback to play well. Whipple has plenty of experience coaching the position and he will come to Pitt well-prepared to work directly with the quarterbacks.

None of that is really up for debate. What’s in question, though, is how Whipple will approach the quarterback situation.

He inherits Kenny Pickett, a junior-to-be who has started the last 15 games for Pitt. There’s plenty of promise and potential in Pickett’s play, but there’s also an 8-7 record with some pretty spotty performances - maybe a lot of spotty performances - in those 15 games.

Narduzzi and Watson went out of their way to proclaim Pickett the starter as far back as last spring, and to some extent, that made sense: leave no mystery about the team’s leader and empower Pickett as The Guy.

But now there’s a new coordinator, someone who has no history with Pickett and will base his early opinions entirely off what he sees on film. It probably won’t be pretty (you know that; you watched the games). So what will Whipple do with the quarterbacks this spring and summer?

It’s not like there is a lot of experience behind Pickett. Ricky Town entered the season as the backup but is apparently hanging up the cleats. Freshman Nick Patti redshirted and hasn’t set foot on the field. And Jeff George Jr. joined the team last August as a walk-on graduate transfer, working his way into a backup role for a handful of snaps late in the season. He’s got some experience from his time at Illinois, but not much in the way of an impressive resume.

While Whipple is inheriting a starter, I doubt Narduzzi will force him to keep that starter in place. I suspect the most likely option is that Narduzzi and Whipple take a public stance along the lines of, “Kenny’s our starter but everybody’s getting a lot of good work and we hope they are all competitive and push each other.”

There’s no reason to go too far in the direction of screaming about an open competition in public, but behind closed doors as the coaches evaluate the tape, I’m sure Whipple and the offensive staff will have an open mind about the quarterbacks.

If Patti or George outplays Pickett, then the coaches will have no choice but to go with them. If neither does, then Pickett stays in place.

That’s the most logical approach - Pickett stays No. 1 until someone plays better than him - and it’s the approach I’m guessing Whipple will take, but it will still be interesting to watch in spring and summer camp.

Can Pitt make the Tournament?
The biggest news in Pitt hoops this week was the Panthers’ win over Florida State on Monday night, as big an upset as the program has seen since…well, probably the last time Pitt beat FSU. That was Feb. 18, 2017; the Seminoles were ranked No. 17 and the Panthers beat them rather firmly 80-66 at the Petersen Events Center.

(Also from the department of forgotten memories: roughly six weeks before that win over FSU, Kevin Stallings also led Pitt to a home upset of then-No. 11 Virginia in overtime. An eight-game losing streak followed, but that win was pretty notable. I digress…)

Anyway, that win over Florida State on Monday was huge, a fitting follow-up to last week’s win over Louisville and an impressive rebound from Saturday’s loss at N.C. State. The victory pushed the Panthers’ record to 12-5 overall and 2-2 in the ACC and, in the less-tangible realm, earned the team a mention from none other than CBS Sports bracketologist Jerry Palm.

In fact, it was more than a mention; it was an out-and-out inclusion, as Palm moved Pitt into his bracket for the first time. The Panthers showed up as one of the “last four in,” grabbing a No. 11 seed in a play-in game against Arizona State. Palm also wrote that “Pitt has put itself in position to make a run toward the bracket.”

Now, Palm and everyone else will jump to tell you that those brackets were projections as of this week; there’s obviously a lot of basketball left to play and things will look very different a month from now, let alone two months from now.

But could it happen? Could Pitt go from a winless conference record in 2018 to the NCAA Tournament in 2019? That would be one hell of a turnaround; is it realistic?

Well, let’s look at the schedule. Pitt has 12 wins overall and two in the ACC with 14 conference games to play. It’s the ACC, so the slate is naturally unforgiving: alongside Duke and Virginia are a return trip to Louisville, a home-and-home with Syracuse, a rematch with N.C. State and a home game against Virginia Tech.

And those are just the teams that are ahead of Pitt in the standings. The Panthers also have two games against Clemson, road trips to Boston College, Miami, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech and the finale against Notre Dame at home.

There’s something of a seven-and-seven split there between the teams that are ahead of Pitt and the teams that are behind. We shouldn’t take anything for granted because while this Pitt team has been pretty exciting to watch, it’s also still young and prone to lapses. But we’re nearing the point where the Panthers should start expecting to beat Boston College and Wake Forest and Miami and Georgia Tech.

So what should Pitt shoot for? 20 wins overall? Is that viable? To get there, the Panthers need eight more; if we just look at the regular season, that means winning at least one and probably more from that top group - the Duke, Virginia, Louisville (yes, Pitt beat them already but the next game is on the road), Syracuse, N.C. State and Virginia Tech.

That’s to get to 20, though, and I’m not entirely sure they need that many. In the last five years, 13 teams have earned at-large berths in the Tournament with less than 20. Of those 13, 11 had 19 wins and two had 18, so 18 would seem to be the minimum and 19 is probably a better target.

If Pitt can win seven more games, the Panthers will legitimately be in the bubble conversation, especially if one or two of those wins come in some of those “big games” (Tuesday night against Duke seems optimal, but we’ll see about that). And we’re not even counting the ACC Tournament; it will depend on the draw, but that will present an opportunity to turn 18 into 19 or possibly 19 into 20, etc.

So we’re talking about getting six or seven wins out of the next 14, and as you look at the schedule, I think you can find them without too much trouble. It wouldn’t be ideal to go into the postseason with a 6-8 mark over the final 14 games, but get six and you’re 18-13 with a chance for 19 or 20 wins if you get a little hot in the ACC Tournament.

19-14 is right in line with the other teams who have made the NCAA Tournament with less than 20 wins in the last five years.

So yes, it’s possible. But something else stands out to me about this topic:

Pitt is succeeding and the nation is taking notice. It’s been a long time since the rest of college basketball took notice of the Panthers - in a positive light - and I have to say, seeing Pitt’s name among the 68 teams projected in the postseason was a familiar sight that had become all too unfamiliar.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt will do well with this schedule
Just don’t ask me to define what “well” means…

Pitt released its 2019 schedule on Wednesday, and while we pretty much knew what teams the Panthers would face, it was good to finally get the dates on paper. On first glance, I think this sets up pretty well for Pitt.

Let’s start with the year-to-year comparison of teams who changed from the 2018 schedule to the 2019 edition.

Albany -> Delaware
This is a wash as one FCS opponent replaces another. Delaware might be better than Albany, but it shouldn’t matter too much, especially when Pitt will go into the Sept. 28 game against the Blue Hens with four games already played.

Notre Dame -> Ohio
I would say this favors Pitt. With no disrespect to Ohio - we all remember the 2005 game - facing Notre Dame on the road is certainly a stiffer challenge than hosting the Bobcats.

Wake Forest -> Boston College
This one is an upgrade from 2018, as Boston College figures to be more formidable than Wake Forest was. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Eagles will be world-beaters this season. They should have many of the same characteristics from a year ago - solid run game and defense - but those characteristics fit rather nicely with what Pitt wants to do, so it should be a solid matchup.

Of the two returning teams on Pitt’s nonconference schedule, Penn State has lost quite a bit this offseason and should be a lesser team when the Panthers go to State College on Sept. 14. Central Florida is without quarterback McKenzie Milton, but facing the Golden Knights will be considered a tough challenge until further notice.

Then it comes down to the annual ACC opponents: six teams from the Coastal Division and Syracuse. Miami, North Carolina and Georgia Tech all have new head coaches, so it’s anyone’s guess what those teams will look like. The other four are teams Pat Narduzzi has succeeded against: since becoming head coach at Pitt, Narduzzi has a 13-3 record against Syracuse, Duke, Virginia and Virginia Tech.

If that trend continues against those four teams and Narduzzi can get two wins out of the three games against teams with new head coaches, Pitt should be sitting at five or potentially six ACC wins from the annual opponents. Let’s be conservative and say that the Panthers win five of those games; add in Delaware and that should be six. And we’ll assume a win over Ohio, too, to push it to seven wins.

Then it comes down to Penn State, UCF and Boston College. Pitt would need to beat the Eagles (or go 6-1 against the annual opponents) to match last year’s ACC record, but that doesn’t seem to be out of reach. UCF will be a challenge, but I really think the Panthers will have a legitimate shot at closing the current series against Penn State with a win.

Say they beat Boston College and Penn State, you’re at nine wins without stretching reality too far. And if you add a sixth win against the annual ACC opponents, you create space to either suffer another loss in the nonconference or push the win total to 10.

I don’t think it’s unrealistic to talk in these terms - at least, it’s not anymore unrealistic than any other evaluations and analysis anyone could provide about a season that starts more than seven months from now.

But I think that schedule can allow Pitt to do better in 2019 than it did in 2018.