The 3-2-1 Column: The what-if game, hoops struggles, Slovis and more

Now, I’ll say right off the bat that I know this proves nothing. It’s an exercise is futility that will, at its best, frustrate you, and at its worst, bore you (which I hope to avoid). But it’s worth discussing here because, well, I’ve been thinking about it a lot and it’s my turn to write the column, so the things I’ve been thinking about this week end up here.

Now then, the What-If Game: Pitt Football 2022 Edition.

Let’s start with the Tennessee game. This is aiming pretty high right from the jump, considering we’re talking about a top-five team that was, rightfully so, ranked No. 1 earlier this season. But let’s be honest: that game was right there for the taking because, to quote the adequate Tino Sunseri, “We missed a field goal; that’s why we lost the game.”

Sunseri said that after Pitt’s triple-overtime loss at Notre Dame in 2012, when Kevin Harper missed a 33-yard field goal in the second overtime that would have given the Panthers a win over the then-No. 3 Irish.

Of course, we all know that much more goes into a loss than one kick, but it’s hard to look at the loss to Tennessee and not notice the two missed field goals in the third quarter. Ben Sauls also made two, to be fair, but if he makes either one of those third-quarter kicks - one from 46; the other from 36 - the game never goes to overtime and Pitt wins.

The next big what-if was the Georgia Tech game, which will undoubtedly go down as one of the worst losses of the Pat Narduzzi era. That one had what-ifs all over the place, and it started on the very first play when Erick Hallett had an interception in his hands but dropped it. And that was just the first dropped interception: according to my notes, Hallett had another one on the next drive and linebackers Tylar Wiltz and Shayne Simon each had chances for picks of their own on subsequent first-half drives.

Four would-be interceptions, all deep in Georgia Tech territory (three of those four plays were inside the GT 30). Make one or two or three or four of those picks, and you’re looking at likely and maybe even guaranteed points, which would loom large in a game that was ultimately decided by five.

And then came the Louisville game. The loss to the Cardinals wasn’t as bad as the loss to the Yellow Jackets, but it ranks very, very high on the what-if scale (and you have my permission to replace “if” with two other appropriate words there). You know the story here: three first-half turnovers by Pitt’s offense, all on plays originating inside the Louisville 30, with two of them being interceptions made at the 2.

Here again, you’ve got three sets of nearly-guaranteed points - three points, at least, and probably seven on one or two of those occasions - all wiped out by turnovers. The Cardinals won that game 24-10, but seven of those points came on the fourth turnover of the game; 17-10 is more representative of how that game actually went, and a few scores on those drives that ended in turnovers would have had a considerable impact on how the game looked at the end.

That’s three games, all losses and all with big what-if moments. We’re not getting crazy with the hypotheticals here either: make a field goal, catch an interception, don’t turn the ball over - basic stuff that, in these three games, truly was the difference between winning and losing.

A blow for the future
The biggest news of the week wasn’t good news.

Pitt lost its quarterback recruit in the 2023 class.

That would be Kenny Minchey, the three-star prospect from Tennessee who committed to Pitt in April as a top target of offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti. He stayed committed despite a July offer from Notre Dame and was in Pittsburgh last month to watch the win over Virginia Tech.

But over the weekend, we started hearing that the commitment wasn’t so solid, and by Monday afternoon, Minchey had formally announced he was backing off the verbal pledge. The expectation is that he’ll soon commit to Notre Dame, likely this weekend, and while we’ll probably all keep an eye on how his career goes in South Bend, there are more pressing matters to address for Pitt.

For starters, there’s the question of why Minchey made this call. The knee-jerk answer is to say it’s a reflection on Pitt’s offense, to say that the Panthers’ ineffective passing game, combined with a heavy reliance on the run, led him to reconsider.

I’m not so sure of that. Yes, Pitt would have had a better chance of keeping Minchey in the fold if the Panthers were scoring 45 points per game (they would probably be 9-1 or 10-0 and ranked in the top five, too, which wouldn’t have hurt). But ultimately, this all feels like a direct line to Notre Dame.

Let’s face it: Notre Dame is Notre Dame, and while the Irish have missed on quite a few top quarterback targets in this cycle - hence the Minchey offer over the summer - they still hold a lot of appeal. Would a pass-happy offense that scores a ton be more attractive for a quarterback? Sure. But the reality is, Cignetti recruited Minchey to play in the offense Pitt has been running; playing in a pro-style offense that would prepare him for the NFL was one of the selling points. Maybe there was more of a run-pass imbalance than expected, but there shouldn’t have been too many surprises.

Either way, the more relevant question is where Pitt goes from here. The staff is sitting without a quarterback commitment less than five weeks from Signing Day, and the coaches will have to make a decision:

Push hard for a high school player or focus the attention on the transfer portal.

Obviously, the answer is going to be both.

When it comes to high school players, there’s not a whole lot out there, at least among the uncommitted recruits. Of the top 25 pro-style quarterback prospects in the class of 2023, only two are currently uncommitted: Minchey, who ranks No. 14, and Bo Edmundson, who ranks No. 17 and decommitted from Michigan State earlier this month. The dual-threat prospects don’t offer a lot more; the top 10 are all committed.

And it more or less looks that way after you get out of the top-ranked guys, which means that if Pitt’s going to get a high school quarterback prospect for this class, it’s probably going to have to be a flip.

Just like Notre Dame dipped into Pitt’s class for its quarterback recruit, so too will Pitt dip into another school’s class for one. Probably.

And then there’s the portal. No matter what you think of how Kedon Slovis has done this season as a transfer quarterback, the reality remains that the portal is a viable resource for finding players at the most important position. Talented young quarterbacks who don’t see a direct path to playing time enter the portal and become very real options for teams looking to fill out their rosters.

So I think Pitt will look to the portal this offseason. I should amend that: Pitt is always looking at the portal. Like every coaching staff in America, the Pitt coaches are constantly monitoring to see who is in, who might be in soon and who fits what the Panthers need. Depending on the movement in Pitt’s quarterback room this offseason, it wouldn’t surprise me if the staff feels like it needs some help from the portal once again.

Decision Day
Saturday will be the final home game of the 2022 season, and that means it’s Senior Day.

Senior Day is typically a nice moment to reflect on the careers of the Pitt players who are playing the final home games of their time as Panthers, but this year it’s particularly interesting for the clues it might offer about what some of those players plan to do next season.

I’m talking, of course, about the super seniors. I discussed this in the 3-2-1 Column two weeks ago. Pitt has 27 scholarship seniors on the roster this season, and 20 of them have the option to return next season as super seniors - players who get an extra year of eligibility due to being on a roster during the COVID year of 2020.

20 is a lot. If all of them come back, it’s going to take up a whole lot of space on the 85-man scholarship roster - space that could otherwise go to incoming recruits or transfers.

The numbers will work themselves out - they always do - but between now and the time the scholarship situation is resolved, there are going to be a bunch of interesting decisions.

And I suspect we’ll get a few surprises.

Like SirVocea Dennis. He’s a true senior, a player who has seen the field for the last four seasons and played at a high level for the last three. If you asked me before the season - or even a month ago - I would have said he’ll be headed to the NFL this offseason. But after his comments on Tuesday, I’m not so sure; in fact, I might bet on him coming back.

Which I didn’t expect.

Of course, the biggest question mark will be surrounding Kedon Slovis, and I’ll save a discussion of that for the prediction section of this column. But Slovis, like Dennis and Nick Patti and Vincent Davis and C’Bo Flemister and Jared Wayne and Jake Kradel and Blake Zubovic and Habakkuk Baldonado and Chris Maloney and John Morgan and Tyler Bentley and Devin Danielson and David Green and Brandon George and Shayne Simon and Marquis Williams and AJ Woods and Erick Hallett and Judson Tallandier - they’re all facing a decision:

Leave or come back?

The “leave” option there does have two possible paths. Three, really. There’s the NFL, which may or may not be an option for all of them. There’s the transfer portal, which will be an option for most of them. And there’s retirement, which is an option for everybody.

My guess is you’ll see a mix: a few guys will go to the NFL, a few will transfer, one or two will retire and the rest will come back.

How many will come back? That’s the million-dollar question, and it’s one I don’t have an answer for. To be honest, I’m not sure that Pat Narduzzi and his staff have an answer for it. Some of those decisions are probably still being made.

What goes into the decision? A number of factors. Is the player an NFL Draft candidate? Does the player stand to benefit from another year of experience in college? Does the player simply enjoy the college experience, love Pitt and want to play another year?

For each player, the answer will be different. And some won’t make their decisions until well into December as they get feedback from the NFL about their draft potential. So even if we see some guys walk out for the Senior Day festivities, it might not necessarily mean they’re certainly gone.

In a few years, these super senior decisions will phase out and things will get back to “normal” (whatever that means). But for now, Saturday will be a nice opportunity to think back on the seniors’ careers and see what they can do in what might be their final home game.

After that, we’ll wait.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What is the lasting legacy of the seniors?
You see the question; it’s right there in the headline:

What is the lasting impact of the seniors on this year’s roster? What legacy will they carry with them when they leave Pitt? How did they affect the Pitt football program?

To answer those questions, I think you have to look at the accomplishments. And to do that, you need to put a timeline on when those guys joined the roster. So let’s get a quick breakdown on the 27 scholarship seniors and when they came to Pitt:

2017 - Owen Drexel, Gabe Houy, Carter Warren, Deslin Alexandre
2018 - Nick Patti, Jake Kradel, Blake Zubovic, Habakkuk Baldonado, Chris Maloney, John Morgan, Tyler Bentley, Devin Danielson, David Green, Marquis Williams, Erick Hallett, Judson Tallandier

2019 - Vincent Davis, Jared Wayne, SirVocea Dennis, Brandon George, AJ Woods

2021 - Marcus Minor

2022 - Derek Kyler, Kedon Slovis, C’Bo Flemister, Shayne Simon, Tylar Wiltz

Obviously the last two years - 2021 and 2022 - were transfers. But the three years before that were all recruiting classes. To wit, the classes of 2017, 2018 and 2019.

The 2017 guys are super seniors, players who have been at Pitt for six years. The 2018 guys are redshirt seniors. And the 2019 guys are true seniors, players who got on the field as freshmen and have played every year since.

I’m actually not going to waste time here. I’ll get right to the point:

The legacy of those seniors - all except the five who came in this year as transfers - was set last December in Charlotte.

It’s the ACC championship, a title that wouldn’t have been won without the efforts of some of those players who joined the roster from 2017-19.

Yes, Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison had a whole lot to do with it, but consider the production from the current seniors in the ACC Championship Game:

SirVocea Dennis - 12 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 sacks
Habakkuk Baldonado - 7 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack
Deslin Alexandre - 6 tackles, 0.5 TFL
Marquis Williams - 5 tackles, 1 INT
Brandon George - 3 tackles
Erick Hallett - 2 tackles, 2 INT
David Green - 2 tackles, 1 TFL
John Morgan - 2 tackles
Tyler Bentley - 2 tackles
Devin Danielson - 2 tackles
AJ Woods - 1 INT
Jared Wayne - 3 rec. 48 yds, 1 TD; 1/1 passing, 20 yds
Vincent Davis - 11 carries, 39 yds

On top of that, 11 of the current seniors started that game in Charlotte. That’s half the starting lineup, so while Pickett and Addison were the stars of the team, this senior class had a whole lot to do with helping Pitt reach its highest level of tangible success in 40 years.

These guys made that happen, and that’s their legacy.

Seems like a mighty fine thing to walk away with.

What’s the problem with Pitt hoops this time?
There’s always something, isn’t there?

I don’t know what to make of this Pitt basketball team. I knew they weren’t going to be what they looked like in the season-opening win over UT-Martin, but I never thought the fall that came with a rise in competition would lead to them losing back-to-back games by a combined total of 50-plus points. That’s above and beyond. Or below and behind, depending on your perspective.

To some extent, the absence of John Hugley carries a lot of weight here. He’s their best player; Jeff Capel even referred to him as such, and coaches rarely use that kind of superlative about their own team.

His absence can’t be ignored. Would the Panthers have beaten West Virginia with Hugley? Would they have beaten Michigan with a full-strength Hugley? I don’t know. Probably not, given the way they defended in those games. Would they have kept it closer than 25 and 31 points, respectively? I think so. And would they have beaten VCU? Yeah, I think there’s a pretty good chance of that happening.

That’s all hypothetical, of course; the reality is, Pitt got killed by WVU and Michigan and blew a lead with two minutes left against VCU. Hugley or not, there isn’t a single good reason any one of those things should have happened.

But they did.

I think there are a few things that need to happen now.

1. Pitt has to defend better. It’s simply inexcusable to be as bad defensively as the Panthers have been. Their four opponents have combined to hit 46.1% of their shots so far this season; that ranks No. 282 in Division I basketball - out of 352. That’s terrible and completely unforgivable. Whether it’s not being coached well or it’s not being executed - and it’s probably some of both - the defense has to improve. Shot-making will come and go, but you always have to defend.

2. Greg Elliott has to hit shots. Two guys were added to this roster in the offseason with the thought that they would improve Pitt’s outside shooting: Blake Hinson and Greg Elliott. Both are veteran transfers who have been reliable shot-makers in the past. So far, Hinson has lived up to it; he is Pitt’s leading scorer and has made more three-pointers than anyone else on the team. Conversely, Elliott has not. He is Pitt’s third-leading scorer at 10 points per game, but he has shot 8-of-24 from outside and made just 2-of-10 during the Panthers’ trip to Brooklyn, including 0-of-4 against VCU. There’s a way this team is built to work, and part of it is based on Elliott making three’s.

3. Nelly Cummings needs to settle in. I think everyone expected the Colgate transfer to be a steadying force for this team, a veteran guard with a ton of experience at the mid-major level and plenty of individual success against high-major teams. He was supposed to be the point guard who ran the offense, but he has committed 14 turnovers in four games, including five against VCU, while shooting 37.5% from the field. Part of that is his 2-of-13 mark from three; he’s a more respectable 10-of-19 from inside the arc. But he has not looked like the leader this team needs him to be.

Now, I do think Pitt can improve in those areas. I think Elliott can get back to being the 41% three-point shooter he was at Colgate, and I think Cummings can find his footing as Pitt’s lead guard. I assume the Panthers are capable of defending better than they have, too, but we’ll have to see that one to believe it. And there’s no denying that bringing Hugley back into the mix will help things.

But these first four games - or at least the last three - have been really, really disappointing. There’s a lot of season left to go and plenty of time for these things to work themselves out. But it’s disheartening that Jeff Capel’s fifth season is off to this kind of start.

ONE PREDICTION

Slovis will come back
I’ll start by offering a disclaimer:

This is a prediction. Simply a hunch. A gut feeling. Not even what I would call an educated guess. Because for every person who has told me they’ve heard Kedon Slovis is not returning for another season at Pitt, there’s at least one person who has told me he is coming back.

So don’t go putting headlines on the Internet saying “Report: Pitt QB to return for 2023 season,” because I’m definitely not reporting it.

I’m just predicting it.

Look, Kedon Slovis is just like the other 19 scholarship seniors who have the option to come back. There are four paths he can take:

He can leave for the NFL. He can transfer. He can retire. Or he can come back.

I assume can we rule out the first one. I imagine it would require some kind of huge jump in the final three games for Slovis to even be in that conversation at this point, and even then, I don’t know how much he could do to overcome his current stat line of six touchdowns and six interceptions in nine games played (and even worse, half of those touchdowns came in one game).

That leaves the other three options. I don’t think he’s going to retire; he might, but I haven’t heard any indication that this season has left him wanting to quit the game.

So then Slovis is looking two paths for 2023: play at Pitt or transfer to another school. To me, it comes down to this:

Does he want to work with the Pitt offensive coaching staff and play in the Pitt offensive scheme for another year?

It’s really about that. The logical thing to do would be to stay, to build some continuity and use his experience in the system to set the table for a more productive season in 2023. That makes the most sense; if anything, we’ve seen this season what kind of challenges you get from transitioning to a new offensive system and a new offensive staff. It’s not easy to do, and there are some bumps and bruises along the way.

But if Slovis doesn’t think he can make it work, either with the staff or the system, then it’s in his best interests to leave. And if that happens, well, it seems to me that would be quite an indictment on the offensive staff. It makes all the sense in the world for him to come back, and it would ultimately do the most to help him reach his long-term goals, so if he decides to leave, then that’s going to say a lot about what he thinks of the current setup at Pitt.

I don’t think that happens, though. Regardless of what Slovis thinks of Pitt’s offense, it’s still the best option for him. Continuing to learn in this offense and work with these teammates and master the terminology and the scheme - those are the things that are most likely to put him in position to have a good season in 2023, the kind of season that can help him develop as an NFL Draft prospect.

So that’s what I think will happen. He’s a smart guy, and while this season had to be incredibly frustrating for him - probably even more than it has been for you, regardless of what you think you can detect from his body language on TV - I think he can see the bigger picture that there’s a chance to make a real jump in 2023 if he spends a second year in the offense. And that’s what I think he will do.