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In this week's 3-2-1 Column: Pitt hoops continues to slide but recruiting is improving. Plus the impact of Mark Whipple and 40 other things.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
I really did believe
I did so much research. I really did.
I mean, I did a fair amount - five years of NCAA Tournament brackets looking for those teams who made the postseason with less than 20 wins. It took a little time, especially after I filtered out the automatic qualifiers so I could get down to a simple question:
How many teams have gotten at-large bids with less than 20 wins?
The answer was a fair amount; maybe 17 or so over the last five years. I thought that was an encouraging number, because it opened the window for Pitt this season. And when we went over the remaining schedule - at the time - we didn’t have to stretch reality too far to get the Panthers somewhat close to 18 or 19.
It was crazy talk at the time, thinking about Pitt possibly making the NCAA Tournament a year after going 0-fer in the ACC, but those were the halcyon days after the wins over Louisville and Florida State, and that kind of atmosphere can make a man’s mind conjure up wild ideas and extraordinary notions.
Now, of course, it all looks silly. Pitt has lost eight in a row (as you know) and those outside, longshot chances at being on the NCAA Tournament bubble are gone (as you know). At various points, the Panthers have looked disjointed, uncomfortable and worn out. They have failed to close out multiple games when they had a chance to win, and losing is feeling more and more inevitable, even in games when winning previously seemed like a real possibility, if not a probability.
The shift has been reflected by the (vocal-minority-but-loud-online portion of the) fanbase. When Pitt in late-game battles against N.C. State and Boston College in the last week, the tone changed from how the Panthers could pull off a win to how they would let it slip away.
It’s a fatalistic attitude, but not in the way that term is often used (that a negative outcome is inevitable) but rather in that term’s definition: that an outcome - any specific outcome - is inevitable. Positive or negative, things going to end in a predetermined way.
And right now it feels like Pitt is predetermined to lose.
I don’t believe that, though. For as much as I believed Pitt could push for - or even surpass - a half-dozen on the ACC win total, I equally believe that this team has another conference win in it. The schedule doesn’t necessarily look forgiving; Georgia Tech is the “lightest” opponent remaining, but that game is on the road and even good teams struggle away from home. The fact that the final six games include some challenges makes the 0-5 mark in the Clemson/Syracuse/Wake Forest/N.C. State/Boston College stretch even tougher to stomach.
But while there have certainly been personnel and roster issues that contributed to the eight-game losing streak, there has also been a little bad luck. Some bounces and some calls that could have or should have gone Pitt’s way have hurt the Panthers, so I’m still holding out the belief that the things will go in favor of Jeff Capel’s team at least once in the final six.
That game in Atlanta next Wednesday is probably the best overall chance, at least in terms of the opponent, but Pitt should have a chance against Clemson at home a week later, given how the last game went. Miami and Notre Dame could also be toss-up games; it wouldn’t be the worst scenario to see Pitt close the regular season with a home win over the Irish.
But I’m getting ahead of myself - much like I did a month ago.
That’s a good start
I said I was going to save this gif for Pitt’s first hoops commitment in the 2019 class, so here it is:
On Monday, Capel broke the seal. Or rather, Gerald Drumgoole broke the seal. The three-star small forward from Indiana committed to the Panthers this week, picking Pitt over Georgia, Maryland, Minnesota, Georgetown, Northwestern and South Carolina, among others, and he’s significant in a lot of ways.
For starters, he’s the first one. This 2019 class was always going to be an important one for Capel, and this season’s shortcomings have only hammered home the importance of adding quality players to the roster this offseason. They won’t all be high school prospects - at a couple spots, Pitt needs to add some maturity and experience - but the majority of the additions will be, and Drumgoole is a heck of a way to start it off.
Sure, one of the centers like Kofi Cockburn or Qudus Wahab would have been a good start and would have addressed a key need - depth and talent in the front court - but Drumgoole fills a hole that’s almost as important and maybe even more significant.
Drumgoole is a shooter on the wing. Pitt barely has that on the roster this year; Jared Wilson-Frame is the only player in that category and he’s done with eligibility after the season. When that happens, Pitt’s number of reliable shooters will go from one to zero. Drumgoole will bring it back up to one.
So on the basis of both quantity (he’s the first) and quality (he’s good), Drumgoole’s commitment is big for the Panthers. They obviously have a bunch of spots left to fill, but Drumgoole should be able to walk into a starting job next season, lining up with Xavier Johnson, Trey McGowens, Au’Diese Toney and Terrell Brown.
There are a lot more needs left, of course. We’ve all focused on centers so much that when Drumgoole started coming into focus as a potential commit, it was like, “Oh yeah, they could use a shooter or two as well.”
Pitt got a good one to fill that spot. Capel won’t be resting on his laurels with this commitment, but he gets a pat on the back for it all the same. If the rest of the players who join the roster this offseason are on - or above - Drumgoole’s level, next season should see a serious uptick in wins.
The offense hasn’t even scratched the surface
Sometimes it feels silly even talking about Pitt’s offense.
I’m on the football side of things now, and anytime we get into a discussion about what to expect from Pitt’s offense or who to expect to see as a breakout, there’s a lot of pessimism. Or, at the very least, not a lot of hope for anything or anyone.
I understand that. Pitt’s offense performed at historic levels last season - on the wrong side of the ledger, of course. It’s tough to look at the production last year or the year before and point to any individual player and say, “I know that guy can get it done.”
Because right now, it’s all guessing. In some cases, we’re guessing based on a very small sample size. In other cases, we’re guessing on no sample size whatsoever.
Of the former, there are guys like Maurice Ffrench and Taysir Mack. I really believe those two can be legitimate ACC-caliber receivers. I believe they already have the ability to perform at that level. But they don’t have the numbers. They don’t have the history. There’s no precedent for consistent production.
There have been flashes, though. Mack had a handful of “wow” catches last season. Ffrench did, too, and he also had a better yards-per-touch average than Quadree Henderson did in his All-American season of 2016. So there’s potential, but when the final numbers look like they do - neither Ffrench nor Mack caught more than 35 passes or 557 yards in 2018 - it’s hard to raise the expectations too high.
And when you go beyond them in the receiving corps, you get Aaron Mathews, Shocky Jacques-Louis, Dontavius Butler-Jenkins, Tre Tipton - stop me when we get to the guy with impressive career numbers.
Really, Jacques-Louis can fit into the second category as well (no sample size); even though he played in 10 games, he only caught nine passes for 76 yards. Do you really know what you can get out of him? I mean, I’ve heard great things about what he did in training camp, but there’s nothing tangible to build any expectations from.
The same goes for the running backs. AJ Davis has played the most, and he’s as much of an unknown as Todd Sibley or Mychale Salahuddin, who really aren’t any more “known” than the incoming freshmen, Daniel Carter and Vincent Davis. I think there’s a lot of potential in that group; whether any of them can actually reach their potential remains to be seen.
So it’s all up in the air. Last year’s offense was obviously held back by a myriad of factors, from the play-calling to the protection to the quarterback and more. But despite history’s incomplete score, I am pretty bullish on the individual abilities of quite a few of those players. I think Ffrench and Mack can do a whole lot more than they did last season. I think Jacques-Louis can be a breakout player. And while I’m not sure which running back can emerge, I think at least one of them can, if not more.
Those question marks from last year - the play-calling, the protection, the quarterback play - are going to be up in the air this season until we get some hard evidence. But I’m bullish on the potential of the skill players; if those other things get in order, I think the playmakers are in place to capitalize.
TWO QUESTIONS
How much difference can one man make?
Speaking of the offense, probably the biggest question this offseason is how much of an impact - and, more specifically, an improvement - Mark Whipple can make.
I’m torn on this, for a lot of reasons. Like I said above, I think there are playmakers on the team. At the same time, there are also some obvious personnel question marks. Quarterback is a big one, of course; can Kenny Pickett make a big jump from 2018? He’ll have to, if the offense is going to make its own big jump.
And then there’s the offensive line. Pass protection was clearly an issue in 2018, and now the four linemen who started every game are gone (okay, Alex Bookser didn’t start the first game, but he did start the other 13, so that’s close enough).
Those issues will have to be addressed. Dave Borbely will be tasked with fixing the protection; the rest will be up to Whipple. And that brings us back to the original question:
How much difference can one man make?
There’s some precedent for a coaching change having a significant impact. Specifically at offensive coordinator, we’ve seen a situation where a change really turned things around in a hurry. I’m talking about 10 years ago.
There are already quite a few overlaps if you turn the clock back a decade. Starting with the 5-7/upset-of-No.-2 similarities between 2007 and 2017 and into 2008/2018, when Pitt was more successful than previous but still had some disappointments, it’s not a perfect comparison, but there are similarities.
And now there’s another one in the offseason, as a rigor mortis offensive performance in the Sun Bowl - and the rest of the season - led to a change at offensive coordinator. In 2008, Matt Cavanaugh was out and Frank Cignetti was hired. This year, Shawn Watson is out and Whipple has been hired.
You may or may not remember what happened in 2009. Cignetti immediately identified Jonathan Baldwin, Dion Lewis and Dorin Dickerson as the team’s offensive playmakers and built his offense around getting those guys the ball. He also evaluated Bill Stull, found the strengths and weaknesses and tailored the game plan and play design to Stull’s abilities.
You probably remember the results. Nobody started mistaking Pitt for a Big 12 team, but the Panthers had a really good defense and an offense that was able to score. Lewis went for nearly 1,800 yards. Baldwin was the only 1,000-yard receiver of the Wannstedt era. And Dickerson was an All-American.
Stull more than doubled his touchdown total from the previous season.
I’d say that worked out pretty well for all parties.
So one man really can make a big difference. I don’t think Whipple is inheriting Lewis, Baldwin or Dickerson. In fact, I’m sure he’s not. But he’s inheriting enough playmakers to build an offense around and a quarterback who needs considerable development. Whipple has a reputation for working magic at that position; he’ll need to do it in his new job.
Should there be an automatic caveat?
Every comment on Pitt basketball ends with optimism.
They all often start with optimism, too.
And sometimes there’s optimism in the middle.
It’s rough right now, but the future is still bright.
Capel is really building something, but it’s going to take some time.
This is rough to watch. I know it’s going to get better, but they have been disappointing lately.
It’s hard to find any Pitt basketball conversation that doesn’t have the automatic caveat of “things will get better.” It’s like Jerry and George constantly saying “…not that there’s anything wrong with that” on Seinfeld; it gets repeated over and over to make sure there is never any misunderstanding.
While that episode was classic Seinfeld, I don’t think Pitt fans need to be so repetitive. Save for a few outliers, everyone knows that Jeff Capel had to start over at “ground zero,” as he called it after the Syracuse game. Everyone knows that Capel was tasked with a complete rebuild.
And most everyone is fairly confident in Capel’s ability to turn things around. There are differing opinions on just how far things can be turned around, but those have surrounded the program since it moved to the ACC. For most fans and media, though, there is a solid belief that Capel can get the program to a level of competitiveness in the conference.
The vast majority of folks following this program understand this, and yet we all feel the need to repeat it anytime we make a comment on the state of things.
Really, though, it’s quite simple: Pitt is struggling now but there is every reason to believe it will improve. We all know it. We all get it. And yet we all keep saying it. Maybe we could find some kind of shorthand, like ISBINF (I still believe in the future) or CIBS (Capel is building something).
JUST ONE MORE THING
40
So we’ll get personal here for a second. Today is my 40th birthday. The big four-oh. The family and I are taking off for the weekend, which will be nice. But, you know, everybody makes a big deal out of this birthday, so I thought I’d commemorate it here in the column.
Here are 40 things I’ve learned since I started covering Pitt in 2005.
1. We love the unseen. Whether it’s freshmen or backups or anybody else, we praise them until they give us a reason not to.
2. Coaches want to win. They really do. If that freshmen really was a better option right now, he’d be playing.
3. We all know we should wait to judge recruits for three or four years, but we never do.
4. Star rankings aren’t perfect, but they’re worth considering in moderation.
5. The Rivals.com analysts get a lot of evaluations wrong. College coaches who make a lot more money than Mike Farrell do, too.
6. It’s nice to have successful programs offering the recruits your school is getting, but it’s not the only thing that matters.
7. Charlottesville is nice, but the drive there in the fall is better.
8. Miami is overrated on so many fronts.
9. The drive across Florida on Alligator Alley is not. Everyone should do that at least once.
10. And the burger at Le Tub - that was legit.
11. Atlanta is a great biennial road trip.
12. Syracuse is a terrible biennial road trip.
13. I wish Louisville was a biennial road trip.
14. Cincinnati is an underrated city. I always enjoyed that trip in the Big East.
15. Piscataway, on the other hand, was too far from Pittsburgh and too far from anywhere interesting in New Jersey.
16. I hope I never have to go back to UConn.
17. I don’t mind trips to the Triangle, but I could do without the ACC self-importance that seems to surround the area.
18. Pitt might never stop feeling like an outsider in the ACC.
19. The Big East was more fun, anyway. At least for hoops.
20. In the time I’ve covered Pitt, no player was more fun to watch than DeJuan Blair.
21. LeSean McCoy was second on that list.
22. Pitt fans were pretty lucky to have both of those guys on campus at the same time.
23. Jamie Dixon was under-appreciated when he was here and that hasn’t changed in the time since, for some reason.
24. That said, things did slide at the end of Dixon’s tenure, largely because he was never able to recover from the early departures of Khem Birch and Steven Adams.
25. Steve Pederson wasn’t as bad as some make him out to be. He also wasn’t as good as some make him out to be.
26. Yes, Steve Pederson has supporters. I know, right?
27. The retro uniforms look cool but the road retros look better.
28. There’s no good solution for Heinz Field. Even winning won’t put 68,000 in the stands for every game.
29. The only solution is a smaller stadium.
30. And it doesn’t matter if it’s in Oakland or Oakmont.
31. Bad things don’t only happen to Pitt. Every school has brutal losses and missed opportunities.
32. That said, don’t ever think you’ve seen it all, because when you do, they’ll fumble on five straight possessions to open a game or give up back-to-back onside kicks at the end of a game.
33. Since I started covering Pitt, I’ve gotten married, had two kids and bought a house.
34. My first son was born the day Pitt lost to Youngstown State in 2012.
35. That may seem ominous, but it makes for a good anecdote for me. I doubt it has impressed anyone in his kindergarten class.
36. Yes: a child born the day of Paul Chryst’s first game is now in kindergarten. In case you wanted a reminder of how time flies.
37. In 14 years with the site, I’ve seen five head football coaches, three head basketball coaches and four athletic directors - not counting interims.
38. Through it all, the constant has always been the fans. Good or bad, positive or negative, the fans have been here.
39. For reading the site all of this time, thank you.
40. Never lose your passion. But don’t lose perspective either.
