The 3-2-1 Column: Slovis, a history of transfers and a season prediction
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In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're talking about Kedon Slovis being named the starting quarterback, looking at back Pitt's history with transfers under Pat Narduzzi, offering an official season prediction and more.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
The un-surprising news
News is still news, even if it’s not exactly a surprise.
Yes, everyone knew Kedon Slovis was going to be the starting quarterback, regardless of when or if Pat Narduzzi announced it. In fact, that was maybe the biggest piece of intrigue surrounding the quarterback competition in training camp:
It wasn’t a question of which quarterback would win; it was a question of whether Narduzzi would actually tell anyone.
Well, he did tell everyone on Wednesday of this week when he announced that Slovis, the senior transfer from USC, will be the guy.
No surprises there. Slovis was recruited by Pitt to be the starting quarterback and he came to Pitt to be the starting quarterback. But it wasn’t just predetermined; I believe Slovis won the job in spring camp and training camp, outperforming redshirt senior Nick Patti to be named the starter.
What does it mean for Pitt to have Slovis as the starter?
More and more, I’m coming to think it’s a very good thing.
I know we’ve all recited the stats, but let’s hit them one more time:
In three seasons at USC, Slovis threw for 7,576 yards, 58 touchdowns and 24 interceptions while completing 68% of his passes.
That’s pretty good. Maybe a few more interceptions than you would like to see, but pretty good overall.
Let’s get some more numbers. Slovis is the Pac-12’s all-time career leader in completion percentage, and his 68.4% ranks No. 13 in NCAA history among quarterbacks with at least 875 attempts.
As a freshman in 2019, Slovis was No. 2 in the Pac-12 and No. 3 in the NCAA in completion percentage. He also ranked No. 3 in the Pac-12 in pass completions, No. 2 in passing yards, No. 2 in yards per attempt, No. 2 in pass efficiency, No. 3 in passing touchdowns and No. 3 in total yards.
As a sophomore in 2020, Slovis led the Pac-12 in pass completions, passing touchdowns and total yards, ranked No. 2 in completion percentage and No. 3 in pass efficiency.
Last season, he was No. 3 in the Pac-12 in completion percentage.
I don’t know about you, but those numbers are all really impressive to me. Slovis has been accurate, he has done a good job of protecting the ball and he has thrown a lot of touchdowns. Sounds like a good combination. And he did it while playing at USC.
Say it with me again:
Slovis has competed at and excelled at the highest level of college football. He has played a lot of Power Five football - 1,718 snaps and 953 career pass attempts - and has played well.
For a team with Pitt’s talent and depth coming back, the key component, the main missing piece, is quarterback. It’s the difference between going back to Charlotte or back to eight wins.
We’ll find out if Slovis can be that key, but if history is any indication, he’s going to play well for the Panthers. We’ll start there and see what happens after that.
Other transfers who will contribute
As you certainly know, Slovis wasn’t the only transfer to join Pitt’s roster this offseason. The Panthers added eight scholarship transfers in total, so let’s look at where each guy stands coming out of training camp.
Kedon Slovis - He’s the starting quarterback, as named by Pat Narduzzi on Wednesday.
Konata Mumpfield - The Akron transfer is poised to be Pitt’s leading receiver in 2022. He came in with hype and high expectations, and if anything, those expectations have only climbed after his performance in spring camp and training camp.
Shayne Simon - Simon is set to be the starting Money linebacker and could also serve as a reserve at middle linebacker thanks to some cross-training he received this summer.
Tylar Wiltz - Wiltz is an FCS transfer from Missouri State, but he has outperformed that pedigree. He won’t be a starting linebacker, but he’ll be in the two-deep and should see plenty of snaps in the rotation at outside linebacker.
Bub Means - Mumpfield gets the hype among the transfer receivers, but Means, who started his college career as a defensive back at Tennessee before transferring to Louisiana Tech where he could play receiver, has impressed as well. He’s a big, physical deep threat and will stretch the field for the Pitt offense.
Dylan Deveney - Deveney transferred from Georgia Tech but arrived late in the summer and took some time for acclimation. He could figure into the rotation at tight end, but probably not early in the season.
Derek Kyler - Kyler came from Dartmouth looking to compete for the third quarterback job, and that’s where he stands at the end of training camp: competing for the third quarterback job. Narduzzi said Thursday that Kyler can run the huddle, but the coaches are still looking for someone - Kyler or redshirt freshman Nate Yarnell - to lay claim to the No. 3 spot on the depth chart.
C’Bo Flemister - After not producing a whole lot at Notre Dame - 471 yards and 10 touchdowns on 110 carries in four seasons at Notre Dame - Flemister seemed like he would be a depth piece in the running back room, at best. But once he got comfortable in the offense, Flemister impressed the coaches and could find himself with a role in the backfield rotation.
So of those eight transfers, three (Slovis, Mumpfield and Simon) are set for starting jobs, while two (Wiltz and Means) will be prominently featured in the rotations at their positions and one more (Flemister) could get into the mix. The only two of the eight who don’t have a clear path to the field are the guy competing for the third quarterback job and the depth tight end who made a late arrival at camp.
That seems like a pretty good run through the transfer portal this offseason for Narduzzi and his staff.
The best transfers under Narduzzi
Let’s do another list - one that will change quite a bit after this season.
Let’s take a trip down memory lane and try to figure out the best transfers of the Narduzzi era at Pitt.
Here’s the full list, as best I can tell:
DT Mark Scarpinato (Michigan State)
QB Nathan Peterman (Tennessee)
DE Dewayne Hendrix (Tennessee)
TE Chris Clark (UCLA)
QB Max Browne (USC)
TE Matt Flanagan (Rutgers)
OL Brandon Hodges (Texas)
TE Will Gragg (Arkansas)
WR Taysir Mack (Indiana)
OL Stefano Milin (Kent State)
OL Nolan Ulizio (Michigan)
TE Nakia Griffin-Stewart (Rutgers)
LB Kylan Johnson (Florida)
TE Lucas Krull (Florida)
LB John Petrishen (Penn State)
OL Keldrick Wilson (Hampton)
WR D.J. Turner (Maryland)
QB Joey Yellen (Arizona State)
WR Melquise Stovall (Hawaii)
DB M.J. Devonshire (Kentucky)
OL Marcus Minor (Maryland)
QB Kedon Slovis (USC)
QB Derek Kyler (Dartmouth)
WR Konata Mumpfield (Akron)
WR Bub Means (Louisiana Tech)
RB C’Bo Flemister (Notre Dame)
TE Dylan Deveney (Georgia Tech)
LB Shayne Simon (Notre Dame)
LB Tylar Wiltz (Missouri State)
Now, a few caveats here. I didn’t include players who were at another college but only ended up at Pitt after a stint at a junior college - like Kam Carter or Karter Johnson. And while I’m focused on scholarship players here, I’m including John Petrishen for obvious reasons, even though he came to Pitt as a walk-on.
So we’ve got 29 players listed there. Eight of them arrived this offseason and have not played for Pitt yet, so we’ll set them aside for now. That leaves 21. Here’s my ranking of those 21.
21. Keldrick Wilson - The transfer from Hampton played in 12 games over two seasons, but never in a significant role.
20. Brandon Hodges - Hodges transferred in from Texas right before training camp in 2017, and while he only played in eight games, he also took up a scholarship for only one year, so he gets the nod over Wilson.
19. Joey Yellen - Mark Whipple’s familiarity with Yellen couldn’t compensate for his struggles on the field. Yellen completed 45% of the passes he attempted at Pitt, throwing for one touchdown and three interceptions in 2020.
18. Mark Scarpinato - A forgotten man in Narduzzi’s first year, Scarpinato finished his career at Michigan State with an eye on going to med school but decided to put on the cleats for one more season.
17. Will Gragg - In three seasons at Arkansas, Gragg caught five passes. In two seasons at Pitt, he caught 24. He finished his career without ever scoring a touchdown.
16. Chris Clark - Clark, on the other hand, did score a touchdown, as his six points helped lead Pitt to a blowout win over Rice in 2017.
15. Melquise Stovall - Brennan Marion’s acquisition from Hawaii, Stovall dealt with injuries in his one season at Pitt, but he still caught 16 passes for 203 yards and a touchdown.
14. Max Browne - It’s anyone’s guess what Browne might have done if he hadn’t suffered a season-ending injury at Syracuse in 2017. He wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire prior to that game, but he was showing signs of heading in the right direction.
13. Matt Flanagan - Flanagan played in nine games at Pitt in 2017 after transferring from Rutgers, and he was okay: 17 receptions and 160 yards.
12. Nakia Griffin-Stewart - Pitt’s second attempt at getting a transfer tight end from Rutgers, Griffin-Stewart one-upped his predecessor by scoring a touchdown. It was only one, but still.
11. Nolan Ulizio - A one-year grad transfer from Michigan, Ulizio started all 13 games at right tackle for Pitt in 2019. At least, that’s what his bio on Pitt’s website says; I can’t say I have much memory of him.
10. Dewayne Hendrix - Pitt’s second transfer acquisition under Pat Narduzzi, Hendrix came to the Panthers from Tennessee with impressive pedigree as a former four-star recruit. But he never really showed it on the field, recording 50 tackles, 10 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks in 25 games.
9. M.J. Devonshire - One of two current players on this list, Devonshire has a real chance to move up after this season when he’ll be a rotational piece at cornerback and potentially a starter.
8. D.J. Turner - Turner burned bright and fast at Pitt. He joined the Panthers in August 2020 and was the team’s second-leading receiver that season with 44 catches, 634 yards and three touchdown. And he did the bulk of his damage in two games, catching eight passes for 186 yards in a loss to N.C. State and 15 catches for 184 yards and a touchdown in a win over Virginia Tech.
7. Taysir Mack - Mack flashed potential throughout his four seasons at Pitt, but he could never put together a string of consistent performances - or stay healthy long enough - which would have pushed him up this list. In 40 games with the Panthers, Mack caught 138 passes for 2,059 yards and nine touchdowns. He was a good deep threat, but his inconsistency held him back.
6. Kylan Johnson - Johnson came to Pitt after spending four seasons at Florida, and he stepped into the starting lineup at Money linebacker in 2019, putting up 54 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks and two forced fumbles.
5. John Petrishen - The gap between Johnson and Petrishen is a small one, and there’s not much separating their performances at Pitt. While Johnson was only a Panther for one season, Petrishen joined the team in 2019 and played over the course of three seasons. By 2021, he was a top-six linebacker and made six starts at Star. He finished last season with 74 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. Petrishen also added three interceptions and was a key piece of Pitt’s ACC championship-winning defense.
4. Lucas Krull - Really, Johnson, Petrishen and Krull - like D.J. Turner and a few others on this list - all fall into the category of transfers who flashed for one big season at Pitt. Krull’s big season was last year, when he caught the most touchdowns by a Pitt tight end in 13 years and was an All-ACC second-team selection.
3. Stefano Millin - Another one-and-done - remember, most of the players on this were graduate transfers who came to Pitt with one year of eligibility remaining - Millin came to Pitt having started 27 consecutive games at Kent State from 2015-17. With the Panthers, he anchored the offensive line as a 14-game starter at left tackle and second-team All-ACC selection.
2. Marcus Minor - Minor gets the nod over Millin simply because he’s set to play another year. Millin was very good at Pitt for one year; Minor will be very good at Pitt for two years. There’s some projection built into this ranking, but I think Minor really is that good.
1. Nathan Peterman - The 2016 upset of Clemson stands as Peterman’s signature performance, and it truly was a great one. The Tennessee transfer threw for 308 yards and five touchdowns in the win over the Tigers, and he was named the Walter Camp National Offensive Player of the Week for that showing. Peterman might have benefited from a very good offensive line, a very good running back and a very good offensive coordinator in 2016, but he was pretty good himself, and he ranks ninth on Pitt’s all-time passing list despite playing just two seasons. I think he is the best transfer Narduzzi has added.
That’s my list. I’m sure no one has any disagreement with that at all.
I’m pretty interested in seeing what this list looks like after this season’s transfers are included. I imagine there will be more than a few shakeups.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
How many OR’s will there be?
Pitt will release its first official depth chart of the season on Monday, and with that brings anticipation for that annual rite of fall:
The OR’s.
Say what you want about the man, but Pat Narduzzi loves his OR’s. On the two-deep that was released prior to the Peach Bowl, there were eight OR’s. That was actually a drop from the season-opening depth chart, which had 11 OR’s. That first two-deep had a double OR at running back - A.J. Davis OR Israel Abanikanda OR Vincent Davis. It had OR’s at both reserve defensive tackle spots. There was an OR at starting middle linebacker and one at reserve Money linebacker. An OR at starting free safety (which seems silly to think about now). And then season-long OR’s at placekicker, reserve punter, reserve holder and kickoffs.
Like I said, Pat Narduzzi loves his OR’s.
So as we look ahead to the first official 2022 depth chart, how many OR’s do we expect to see?
I think there will be OR’s in the running back two-deep. I imagine Israel Abanikanda will be the listed No, 1, and then there will be some OR’s behind him. How many OR’s show up there will depend on how many backs the coaches want to list; conceivably, they could go for broke and list the depth as Rodney Hammond OR Vincent Davis OR C’Bo Flemister. They could even throw Daniel Carter in there, too, although my guess is they’ll list him as the starting fullback.
I think there will be an OR at right guard. That’s probably been one or the more under-the-radar position battles this summer, but as Jake Kradel has worked back from the injury he suffered last fall, Blake Zubovic has put himself firmly in the mix for the starting job there, and I think we’ll see an OR between those two.
I think defensive tackle will have an OR or two. The coaches did that with the depth last season, and quite frankly, I think there could be a few listed this season. Calijah Kancey will have a starter’s designation, of course, but the coaches could put an OR between two players behind him and at least one more OR’s at the other defensive tackle spot. I wouldn’t be surprised if the official two-deep at defensive tackle looks like this:
Calijah Kancey/Devin Danielson OR Deandre Jules
David Green OR Tyler Bentley
And then there will be some OR’s on special teams. The coaches put an OR between Ben Sauls and Sam Scarton at placekicker and kickoffs last season, and I could see that continuing into 2022. I think they’re largely settled at punter, holder and long-snapper, so there might not be any OR’s there, but there could be a few in the return units.
How much running will there be?
When it comes to the on-field product, one of the biggest storylines this offseason has been the return of the run.
Despite our dyed-in-steel heritage around here, where running the football is in our cultural blood, I think there’s some uneasiness among Pitt fans about what the offense will look like this season. Plenty complained that Mark Whipple didn’t run the ball enough last season, but the results are tough to deny:
The most prolific offense in school history produced a Heisman Trophy finalist at quarterback, a Biletnikoff Award winner at receiver, an 11-win record, an ACC championship and the best season in 40 years.
Pretty good stuff.
But Frank Cignetti’s hiring as offensive coordinator was a clear sign that Pat Narduzzi wants more balance in the offense. That’s all well and good, but in the ACC - heck, in college football in 2022 - you have to throw. You have to be able to attack through the air, and while ball control and time of possession are nice ideas and not without their merit, you’re still going to need to be able to produce an aggressive passing attack to win at a high level.
Is Pitt going to abandon all of that for a ground-and-pound offense that holds the ball for 40 minutes every game?
I don’t think so. I mean, Cignetti and Narduzzi haven’t consulted me on this, but I do believe that both guys understand the value of the passing game. And I also think that the talk of emphasizing the run game has been overblown a bit.
What I think we will see this coming season is best summed up by one word:
Balance.
Now, does “balance” mean a straight 50/50 split? No, I don’t think it does. But I do think it means something a bit more even than what we saw last season. In 2021, the Panthers officially recorded 544 pass attempts and 525 rushing attempts. Those numbers seem to be pretty close, but there were also 34 sacks that were recorded as rushes but were called in as pass plays; that shifts the balance to 578 passes/491 rushes.
Along those lines, Pitt’s quarterbacks had a combined total of 108 rushing attempts; 34 of those were the sacks we mentioned, and while some of the other 74 were quarterback sneaks or draws or other called rushes, a whole bunch were probably scrambles - read: called passes.
Without getting too deep in the weeds here, I would say we can probably safely assume that Whipple (and Tim Salem in the Peach Bowl) called north of 600 passing plays among the 1,069 plays the Panthers ran last season, and it might be closer to 650.
That’s roughly a 65/35 split on pass/run, and that’s where I think we will see things will level out a bit. Again, I don’t think they’ll get to 50/50, but I also don’t think Pitt will be seventh in the nation in total pass attempts, eighth in passing yards per game or fifth in total passing yards. The Panther will be more middle-of-the-pack in those categories - and more middle-of-the-pack in the rushing stats, too.
But I think that this approach, with middle-of-the-pack production in the run and the pass will benefit the overall product. I think Pitt’s total yards and, more importantly, points will be high once again. Maybe not as high as last season, but I think the offense will be able to establish the run effectively enough that defenses have to respect it while also attacking through the air, creating a real pick-your-poison situation for defensive coordinators.
For me, it comes down to this: Pitt’s offensive roster in 2022 looks like it has pretty good players at quarterback, running back, receiver and tight end. Good weapons who can attack in a number of ways. And the guy calling the plays has shown in the past that he can prioritize getting the ball to the playmakers in a variety of ways.
I think that’s what this year’s offense will be: a truly versatile attack that can stress a defense in a variety of ways. Sometimes there will be more run, sometimes there will be more pass, but the end result will be the same:
This offense should put up points and yards by whatever approach works in any given situation.
ONE PREDICTION
The record
Okay. Time to step up and make a real, honest-to-God prediction on the season. No more screwing around. No more jokes. No more if’s and but’s and hypotheticals (other than injuries; they always have the possibility of throwing a wrench into things).
It’s time for the final, this-is-the-one-I-mean-and-you-can-remind-me-of-it-in-December prediction.
My prediction for Pitt’s 2022 regular-season record is:
10-2
10 is a really big number, but this team, with its veteran offensive line and explosive playmakers and impressive-in-his-last-stop quarterback, with its dominant defensive line and athletic linebackers and experienced secondary - this team, with all of that, should expect to put up a big number in the win column.
This team should expect to win 10 games in the regular season.
Actually, this team should expect to win 12. They really should. These players should go into the season believing they really are the best team in the Coastal Division, maybe the best team in the ACC and possibly one of the best teams in the country. They should believe that because I believe they have a chance to reach that level.
And I really do believe that.
But I also believe that it’s really hard to go undefeated. Even really good teams - great teams - struggle to make it 12 games in a row playing perfect football, or something close enough to perfect to win all 12 of them.
It’s tough to do, and better teams than this year’s Pitt roster have failed to do it.
So while I believe they have the talent to pull it off, I’m going to undersell the prediction on the win total, mostly because I’m playing the odds.
Let’s move on to the second part of the question, then:
Which two do they lose?
If Pitt meets my prediction of 10-2, where are the two losses?
The most obvious guesses are Tennessee and Miami. I’ve said a few times this summer that those would be the only “acceptable” losses - losses where you look back and say, “Yeah, it was too bad to lose those games, but they lost to a couple good teams.” The 2021 Miami game, disappointing and winnable as it was, counts as an acceptable loss in my book. The Peach Bowl does, too, for a variety of reasons.
Losing to any team on Pitt’s 2022 schedule other than Tennessee or Miami would be a disappointment, as I see it.
But am I predicting that those are the two teams the Panthers will lose to? I’m not so sure. In fact, there’s a part of me that is leaning toward Pitt opening the season on a winning streak, maybe getting to 6-0 heading into the game at Louisville or 7-0 heading into the road trip to Chapel Hill and then losing a conference game on the road.
That would be pretty disappointing, for sure. But not altogether inconceivable, and in the long run, not a terrible outcome.
I could see Pitt opening 6-0, losing at Louisville and then winning four in a row heading into the finale at Miami. That would put the Coastal Division very much in play and likely set that finale as the division championship game. The same goes for a scenario where Pitt opens 7-0 and loses at UNC before winning three in a row heading into Miami.
It’s a tough call when you start talking about what losses would be “best” for the team. On one hand, the momentum of opening the season 6-0 or 7-0 would be huge. On the other hand, if there’s going to be a pre-Miami loss, Tennessee is probably the best option in terms of goals and accomplishments.
If Pitt is going to lose a game before the regular-season finale, you don’t want it to be an ACC game. That leaves the four non-conference games; West Virginia has to be a win, for a lot of reasons, and another loss to Western Michigan would be devastating, for a lot of reasons. And I’m not even bringing up the possibility of Rhode Island.
That leaves Tennessee. Beating the Volunteers would be big for Pitt and big for the ACC, but if 10-2 is the ultimate record and we assume Miami as one of those losses, then Tennessee is probably the “best” option for the other defeat.
Of course, we’re getting terribly far ahead of ourselves. But here’s one last thing I’ll say about it:
If Pitt goes 10-2, the Panthers will have had a very good season. They may or may not win the Coastal. They may or may not repeat as ACC champs. They won’t make the playoffs, and that will leave them short of their biggest goal, but I think that’s where Pitt is entering the 2022 season:
I think this team - this program - is at a point where it can have a season that counts as being very good while still falling short of its goals. A “disappointing” 10-win season. That’s a different level than Pitt has been at in recent years, and it’s a pretty good place to be.