In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about the start of a new season, the quarterback competition, the new players who will contribute and a lot more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

The start of the season

We’ve talked about a lot of things this week, and quite a few of them haven’t been about football.

As of roughly 12:07 tomorrow - per Pat Narduzzi’s penchant for precision - we can just talk about football.

And that’s pretty great.

The start of a new season is something special. Even the most cynical and pessimistic among us would have to admit that. They would have to admit that, somewhere deep down inside, there’s a little feeling of optimism. A little feeling that this year - this year - everything will come together. Maybe not for a national championship (or…maybe?), but for success, some lucky bounces and enough wins to feel like the season was a good one.

I know I have that thought every preseason. In fact, I can’t remember the last time I had overriding pessimism heading into a season. My first year covering Pitt was 2005; the team was fresh off the Fiesta Bowl and the only thing missing was some good, old-fashioned Western Pennsylvania grit. We all knew just the man for the job.

The next year was Tyler Palko’s senior season, and that was reason enough for optimism. Palko was gone in 2007, but Pitt was bringing in LeSean McCoy, which balanced out the preseason expectations. 2008 was full of hype after the 13-9 game.

2009 was a little bit less so, and that actually might be a year where there was a prevalence of pessimism, what with the losses of McCoy and Scott McKillop and the no-bueno memory of the Sun Bowl.

Ironic, then, that 2009 ended up being Dave Wannstedt’s best season, and the success of that season created lots of hype for 2010.

2011 had the over-energized expectations for Todd Graham. 2012 had the much-desired back-to-grit-and-humility approach of Paul Chryst. I think there was some optimism for 2013 due to having players like Tom Savage and Tyler Boyd and James Conner and Aaron Donald, and there were definitely high expectations for 2014 due to Chad Voytik’s breakout in the previous season’s Pizza Bowl.

In 2015, there was the new-coach hype for Pat Narduzzi, and I think that - plus Conner’s heroic return - largely carried over to 2016. I don’t remember anyone feeling much of anything heading into 2017, but 2018 had high expectations following Kenny Pickett’s win over Miami in the 2017 finale.

I think the general feeling going into the next three seasons - 2019, 2020 and 2021 - was all about the same: some confidence in Pickett and the defense but overall questions about the ceiling for the program under Narduzzi.

The ceiling was reached in 2021, of course, and I think there was a fair amount of hype for 2022. Even last season carried some hints of optimism; likewise, the complete and total turnover of the offense has at least opened the possibility of success for 2024.

So out of the last 19 seasons, there are really aren’t many when the expectations were very low (and at least one of those - 2009 - turned out to be a banner season).

Does that mean Pitt was always good in those 19 seasons? Of course not. The Panthers won six or fewer games in nine out of those 19 and they won more than eight just four times.

But every year, there was almost always at least a glimmer of hope. A chance that this would be a good year. A possibility of it all working out.

Maybe the offense will click. Maybe the young defensive players will blossom.

It. Just. Might. Work.

We’ll find out soon enough if it does or doesn’t work. My personal guess is the answer will be somewhere in the middle.

But for now, before the unfeeling reality of actual game play has unveiled the truth, we have nothing to go on save for our own belief, and in that regard, we can choose to believe that this might be a pretty solid season. Even if you’re down on the team this year, if you think the Narduzzi era peaked and the complete change in direction with the offense is the Hail Mary of a desperate coach grasping for anything he can to save his program - even then, there’s probably some small little voice inside that’s whispering…

“But it just might work.”

That’s what you get at the start of the season.

The quarterback competition

Well, it happened:

Pitt had an honest-to-God, real, live quarterback competition in training camp.

That’s not exactly something we’ve seen a lot of around these parts in the last 10 years. I mean, I think there have been some competitions, but I think most of them have been more or less determined ahead of time (with the results generally falling in line with the expectation).

You probably have to go back to Pat Narduzzi’s first season in 2015 for the last quarterback competition that looked like this year’s battle between Nate Yarnell and Eli Holstein. In 2015, Chad Voytik was the incumbent but Nathan Peterman played well enough to extend the competition into the season, and by halftime of Week Two, it was pretty clear who the top quarterback back.

This year, Yarnell is the incumbent - he started the last two games of the 2023 season - and Holstein is the former four-star prospect who transferred from an SEC school. It’s not Week Two yet so we can’t say if the parallels to 2015 will continue (we’ll have a prediction on that later), but so far, the Yarnell-Holstein battle has been just that:

A battle.

Initially, it didn’t seem like it would be a battle. Yarnell entered spring camp as the top quarterback and, by admission of the coaches, finished camp as QB1. That was further reinforced when Narduzzi took Yarnell with him to Charlotte for the ACC Football Kickoff in July. And it continued when Narduzzi said Yarnell was the top quarterback at the start of training camp.

Somewhere along the way, though, the tide shifted. We started hearing more and more about Holstein, both on and off the record, and before training camp was over, it was clear that something was happening.

That a real live quarterback competition was happening.

And that Holstein, rather than the incumbent, just might win it.

We’ll wait for a verdict, but in the meantime, I think it’s worth considering what this whole process has said about Narduzzi and his approach with quarterbacks.

Set aside the fact that Narduzzi said Thursday he will “step up and veto” if he feels like Bell has made the wrong decision; that’s a refreshing change of pace from Narduzzi’s standard line last season. But beyond that, we just witnessed Narduzzi turn away from a returning starter at quarterback.

While I think his quarterback competitions over the years have been more open than fans tend to believe, there hasn’t been another time the returning starter lost the job (provided the returning starter was one of Narduzzi’s guys).

Granted, the only two returning starters Narduzzi has had were Peterman in 2016 and Kenny Pickett in 2018-21.

But in Yarnell, he’s got a quarterback who won a game and looked like he should have been the starter all season last year, a loyal player who stayed while multiple transfers - three, by my count, and now maybe four - were brought in to play and start ahead of him, a guy who simply loves Pitt and has done everything his team has asked him of.

That’s the kind of loyalty Narduzzi craves, and Yarnell is a pretty solid player on top of that.

So to turn away from Yarnell, to not just hand him the job as the returning starter, I think that’s notable. I think it runs contrary to what a lot of fans probably assume about Narduzzi and his personnel decisions. I think it runs contrary to the notion of the head coach always deferring to upperclassmen/veterans/returning starters.

I suppose there are also fans who think Narduzzi too often defers to transfers, which allows for a certain “damned if you do and damned if you don’t” catch-all to complain no matter what. But in this case, Narduzzi went with the returning starter but kept an open mind in the competition.

And when Holstein caught up to and seemingly passed Yarnell, Narduzzi changed course.

The new faces who will make an impact

Turnover is a natural feature of college athletics. Players run out of eligibility every year, and managing the cycles of personnel are part of the job for college coaches.

So there are always going to be new players getting counted on in any given season.

But nowadays, it seems like those regular personnel cycles are turned up to 11. That’s largely due, of course, to the transfer portal, which has increased the rate at which players enter and exit programs.

So while every season will have new players contributing and making an impact, it seems like there’s even more these days, and that will be the case for Pitt this year.

On offense, there will be new faces all over the place. We already talked about the quarterback situation, where Eli Holstein has clearly put himself in position to be the starter. Pat Narduzzi announced yesterday that Western Carolina transfer Desmond Reid will start at running back and N.C. State transfer Lyndon Cooper and San Diego State transfer Raphael Williams were both listed as starters at their positions - center and wide receiver, respectively - on the official two-deep, so that’s four transfers who are slated to get the start on offense tomorrow.

On defense, only one transfer - Kansas State defensive end Nate Matlack - is penciled-in as a starter on the two-deep, but two defensive tackles (Youngstown State’s Anthony Johnson and Indiana’s Nick James) are “OR” starters, meaning there’s a chance they could take the field for the first snaps.

Even if Johnson and/or James don’t get the start, they’re going to play a lot, as are transfer ends Chief Borders and David Ojiegbe, transfer linebacker Keye Thompson and transfer cornerback Tamon Lynum.

Then you’ve got a smattering of true and redshirt freshmen who will get on the field, like tackles Francis Brewu and Isaiah Neal, end Sincere Edwards and safety Cruce Brookins - not to mention the bevy of second-year outside linebackers.

To some extent, I think the turnover and reliance on new personnel is part of what makes college football fun. There’s a real sense of the unknown with a decent percentage of the roster and two-deep, and while the unknown could end up not working out, there’s always a possibility that it could.

Desmond Reid could really be that explosive. Eli Holstein could be a game-changer at quarterback. Raphael Williams could be a playmaker. Francis Brewu could use his strength to win up front. Nate Matlack and Chief Borders could blossom in a new kind of defense. Nick James and David Ojiegbe could live up to their hype as four-star recruits. Cruce Brookins could be a stud. All of those young linebackers could be impact players.

It’s all on the table, and we get to see it play out in real time. We get to see all of these new players in action starting tomorrow.

That will be fun.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What about the defense?

We have spent a lot of time this offseason talking about Pitt’s offense, and understandably so. That side of the ball sunk the Panthers’ 2023 season in spectacular fashion, and if things are going to go better in any meaningful way this season, it will be due to the offense improving.

So yeah, there’s a whole lot of attention - and pressure - on the offense.

But we can’t completely ignore the defense. 2023 wasn’t up to par for those guys either, and while there’s a lot of context to consider while discussing the defense’s struggles - and how maybe it wasn’t quite as bad as it looked - the fact remains that 2023 was a step back in many ways.

So what happens this year for Randy Bates and his group?

Put another way, what needs to happen this year for Randy Bates and his group?

It starts up front, of course. The defensive line didn’t make much of an impact last season; that was a marked changed from previous years, and it has to change this year. The question is, will it happen with all of the new faces? I listed a bunch of them above, and it really is a long list. Basically every player who logged starts or meaningful snaps on the defensive line for Pitt last season is gone. They’re all new guys (or returning guys who haven’t played much in the past).

So there’s a big element of the unknown with that group.

The linebackers are equally unproven, but the optimism is higher there. In one of my oft-repeated camp mantras, this group of young outside linebackers is really exciting. Athletic and explosive, I think these guys will make a lot of plays.

Moving back through the defense, there will be new starters at cornerback but I just can’t manage a lot of concern there, given how the coaches have restocked at that position pretty consistently over the years.

And safety, as we’ve said many times, is probably the strongest and deepest position on the team.

So, let’s ask again: what needs to happen for Pitt’s defense to get its groove back?

The new defensive linemen have to make an impact. The outside linebackers have to be sound in their assignments but also make plays. The corners have to maintain the level of play that has been there for years. And the safeties have to live up to their promise.

Of course, Pitt’s defense would benefit from seeing some success on the other side of the ball; it’s always easier to defend when your team has a lead. But the Panthers’ new-look defense - it really is: they’ll have new starters at nine of 11 positions - will need to be assertive in controlling the game as well.

Pressure up front. Tight coverage on the outside. Aggressive against the run. And sound in their assignments.

The basics of defense. Pitt just has to do it with a lot of new players.

Is Holstein the favorite to win the quarterback job for the season?

Now that Eli Holstein has been named the starter for the season opener against Kent State, does that mean he’s the favorite to win the job long-term?

In a word, yes.

Pat Narduzzi may talk about how the final decision on a quarterback is going to be based on what happens in the game (or games). And I suppose there’s a world where Holstein struggles tomorrow and Yarnell outplays him.

But I’ve used this metaphor a few times since it became clear that the quarterback competition really was a competition:

Imagine two race cars. One has a clear lead at the start of the race, but by lap 50, the two cars are even. That doesn’t necessarily mean that first car slowed down, but it definitely means the second car caught up.

And that means the second car has accelerated at a higher rate than the first car. That means the second car has the momentum. That means, even if the two cars are even, the second car is the one that’s surging.

Obviously in this scenario, Nate Yarnell is the first car and Eli Holstein is the second car. Yarnell was in the lead entering training camp, having entered and exited spring camp as QB1 and topping that off with an invite to Charlotte for the ACC Football Kickoff - as much of an endorsement as you can get in the offseason.

And yet, it’s the second car - Holstein - that has the momentum. To close Yarnell’s lead and finish training camp in what seemed to be a dead heat said a whole lot about how Holstein looked in practice over the last four weeks.

Throw in the fact that he eclipsed Yarnell and took over the top job, and I think you’ve got a clear leader in the clubhouse for the season-long starter.

What separated Holstein in this case? I think there were a few things, but the biggest one seems to be that the staff believes he’s got the most upside. Yarnell is a solid, efficient player, but he has not shown the ability to really take over a game. Part of that maybe be due, in some respects, to the offense Pitt was using when Yarnell got his opportunities over the last two seasons.

It wasn’t exactly a system that allowed quarterbacks (or anyone) to shine. But Yarnell did what he was asked to do: he got the ball to the skill players and didn’t turn it over. That’s a pretty good bar to hit and it made him the best quarterback on the team last year. But it’s also kind of a baseline: a competent college quarterback should be able to do that. Not all of them can or do, so I don’t want to dismiss the ability to play like that.

But it’s a baseline. It’s where the discussion about skill sets should start. The real key is to find the quarterbacks who can achieve that baseline and then add playmaking upside on top of it.

From what I can gather, at least in the view of the coaches, Holstein has that upside.

To me, it seems like it’s only a matter of time before Holstein gets the call.

How long? Glad you asked.

ONE PREDICTION

The quarterback competition will be resolved by Week Two

I don’t expect this competition to carry into the season beyond this week. I think Pat Narduzzi and Kade Bell will look very closely at how Nate Yarnell and Eli Holstein play in the opener against Kent State and make a decision about the position based on what they see.

I mean, I suppose there’s a non-zero chance that there’s no clear separation and the competition has to carry over into Week Two. But I don’t really think that’s the best-case scenario, and we spend enough time around here thinking about doomsday. Let’s assume, at least for now, the best-case scenario.

And the best-case scenario, in this case, is one quarterback outplaying the other.

I like that the coaches are making this competition about the on-field results. Practice is practice, but they want to see Yarnell and Holstein in action before they fully commit to one or the other, and I like that. I think it’s fun to see a quarterback competition play out in real time, and I’m looking forward to watching them play.

But for the coaches, it’s not really ideal to have that competition stretch out too far. I think they want to lock in on one guy and move forward with him as the QB1.

They won’t force it, but I don’t really think they’ll have to. I think this weekend will provide enough indication about which quarterback is ahead, and it should give the coaches ample evidence on which way to go.

Now, let’s be very clear about something:

Saying the quarterback competition will be resolved by Week Two is not the same as saying we on the outside will know the outcome of the quarterback competition by Week Two. I think it’s entirely within the realm of possibility - and maybe even the most likely result - that Narduzzi plays coy with the information and doesn’t announce anything until after that trip to Cincinnati.

I could be wrong and Narduzzi could come out and say it on Monday. But it feels like a Narduzzi move to say the coaches are still deciding and not really make anything publicly official until one guy starts and takes all of the snaps against the Bearcats.

At the same time, I kind of think Narduzzi’s public comments will be moot. I think the separation at quarterback will be plain to see in tomorrow’s opener. My guess is that one quarterback will outplay the other and probably even get more snaps than the other.

And at that point, the jig will be up, the news will be out and we’ll finally find who the quarterback will be for the rest of the season.

Whether Narduzzi officially announces it on Monday will be of lesser consequence. He’ll either admit the obvious or pretend like it’s not; one way or the other, this thing will be settled soon.