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In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about Kenny Pickett's strong start to the season, the danger of a letdown game, Pitt's running backs and a lot more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

As good as ever
Sometimes we overthink things.

We watch a game and then have to come up with some hot takes about the turning point or the standout players or what have you. And sometimes we try to get too cute with it.

“Look, I know the running back ran for 450 yards and seven touchdowns, but the player of the game was the fullback; watch his block on that one touchdown.”

I say that just as an off-the-cuff example; George Aston very clearly was the best player in multiple games, particularly in 2016 and 2018.

But sometimes the answer is obvious and there’s no reason to mess around or overthink it.

The player of the game in Pitt’s 41-34 win at Tennessee was Kenny Pickett. It’s pretty simple.

After an okay performance against UMass, Pickett stepped up to carry the offense - and the team - in Knoxville, completing 24-of-36 for 285 yards and two touchdowns.

I don’t think anyone would disagree about that. But I’ll also go a step further:

Pickett, as a fifth-year super senior who came back for an extra year of college ball, is playing as well as he ever has.

It’s not an exaggeration to say that this is the best start to a season that Pickett has had at Pitt. In fact, the numbers back that up. Consider his two-game starts to open each of the last three seasons:

In every way, 2021 is the best statistical start to a season that Pickett has had as a starter. He has thrown the most completions for the most yards with the highest completion percentage and the most touchdowns, and he hasn’t thrown any interceptions, which stands out just as much as anything.

And it’s not like 2021 was a softer schedule; Pitt faced a Power Five opponent in the first two games of every season listed above, but this was the first year the Panthers did so on the road.

Quite simply, Pickett is playing some of the best football of his career. If we look beyond the parameters of starting a season, he had a strong two-game stretch in 2019 when he threw for 693 yards, one touchdown and no picks against Ohio and Penn State, but the latter game being a loss marred that performance.

Last year’s Florida State/Virginia Tech sequence was good for him: 614 yards, two touchdowns and one pick while being above 67% completions in both games. But most of those stats came from the Virginia Tech game, and he has more touchdowns and fewer turnovers in this year’s two-game stretch.

All of which is to say, Pitt is getting some really good play from the most important position on the field right now.

Still figuring out the running backs
Two games in, do we have any clarity about Pitt’s running backs?

It doesn’t look like it to me.

We all have our opinions, to be sure. I know I do, and I’ll share those in a minute, although if you’ve read these columns or listened to the podcast, you probably know who I favor in this particular discussion.

The coaching staff even kind of narrowed things down last week. After having six backs carry the ball against UMass, Pat Narduzzi said that the coaches were focused on three guys for the Tennessee game. And in the end, they only used two backs in Knoxville: starter Vincent Davis and backup Israel Abanikanda.

(We can surmise from various sources that freshman Rodney Hammond was the third back, which is interesting for a few reasons.)

The end result, though, wasn’t impressive: a net gain of 96 rushing yards on 45 attempts for Pitt as a team. Individually, Davis ran 19 times for 33 yards and a touchdown and Abanikanda ran 12 times for 43 yards. Abanikanda’s stat line is a little better, but it’s not anything to inspire much in the way of confidence.

After two games, neither Davis nor Abanikanda has crossed 100 yards on the season. Davis has 65 yards on 25 attempts (2.6 ypc) with two touchdowns and five first downs gained, according to Pro Football Focus. Abanikanda has 73 yards on 19 carries (3.8 ypc) with one touchdown and four first downs.

Again, not a lot to write home about.

We can also compare the productivity of the offense with each back on the field. Davis was on the field as the lone back for nine drives Saturday; Pitt went three-and-out on seven of those and scored touchdowns on the other two. Abanikanda was the back for five possessions; those drives resulted in one three-and-out, three touchdowns and one field goal. That’s not a perfect comparison since there are obviously a lot of factors that go into the success or failure of each drive, but it’s worth considering.

Look, you probably know where I stand: I believe Abanikanda is the most complete back on the roster, a mix of size and speed and pass-catching ability that really is unmatched. I think he’s got a chance to be a premier back in the ACC. He hasn’t looked all that consistently exceptional this season and Davis is, by all accounts, the superior pass-blocker, but I think one of the key elements in getting an effective run game going is - wait for it - using a talented running back.

I’m not big on getting too critical with personnel decisions; the coaches have a whole lot more information and data on which to base their decisions. But I think Abanikanda is the best Pitt has and the Panthers need to roll with him.

Now, I don’t know if that will happen this weekend. I kind of believe the coaches will use more of a committee against Western Michigan - and New Hampshire - than they did at Tennessee. I’m seeing these games as kind of a final audition for the rest of the season: which backs emerge as the clear best options? We’ll learn a bit this weekend and we’ll learn a bit next weekend, but by the time Pitt goes to Atlanta on the first weekend of October, I would expect the coaches to have a pretty clearly defined pecking order.

A developing strength
Speaking of skill players on offense, I have to say, I think this year’s group is really, really strong.

I said things like this over the summer. I talked about having some high expectations for the receivers and how I thought that Lucas Krull had the potential to be a game-changer. I had those expectations, but you never really know until it happens.

Well, it seems like it’s happening.

It starts with Jordan Addison, of course. I think we all knew what to expect from him coming into the season and he has delivered. Addison looks fast, athletic and elusive; he hasn’t had a huge game yet, but that will come - probably a few of them.

Krull has been just about everything he seemed to have the potential to be. He has caught 8-of-9 targets for 91 yards and two touchdowns, and four of his non-touchdown receptions have gained first downs, putting him right behind Addison in moving the chains.

Simply put, Krull has been a weapon, and I think he’s going to have a couple games with eye-popping numbers this season.

But it’s not just Addison and Krull, right? Taysir Mack bounced back from a not-impressive start to the season by catching four passes for 100 yards at Tennessee, including the kind of contested catch he has made a bunch of times over the last three years.

And Jared Wayne is no slouch either. He may not be the game-breaker that Addison is, he might not be the downfield threat that Mack is, he might not be the speed demon that Jaylon Barden is, but what Wayne can do is be a really solid and reliable option for Pickett, a receiver who is quite adept at making a catch and moving the chains.

Right now, Wayne is second on the team in receptions and second in receiving yards, having caught 9-of-10 targets for 111 yards and gaining five first downs in the process. He’s also tough to tackle and is second on the team in yards after the catch.

Throw in the running backs as pass-catching options, and you’ve got a really solid group of receiving targets out there for Kenny Pickett to find. At some point this season, I’ll spend a little more time digging into year-vs-year skill group comparisons and how the 2021 collection of receivers and tight ends and running backs compares to previous seasons. But for now, I’m pretty comfortable saying Pitt has a bunch of playmakers available for Pickett to throw to.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Is Pitt due for a letdown?

It’s inevitable, and you know it’s coming before it gets here.

Pitt wins a game of some significance, and there’s some expectation - or maybe it’s just fear - of a letdown game the next week.

This is what Pitt does, we’re told. They win a big one and blow it the next week.

I’m of the mindset that broad statements like that can be rather easily disproven, at least as far as the absoluteness of the premise. The Clemson win in 2016 is an easy-to-reference example: Pitt logged one of its biggest wins in school history and then came home to beat a lowly Duke team. The result was a 56-14 blowout victory at Heinz Field.

No letdown there.

Still, there have been a few in recent memory. Paul Chryst’s 2013 Pitt team logged a huge comeback win over Notre Dame only to fall to North Carolina at home in the next game. That was a letdown.

In 2009, Dave Wannstedt’s Panthers moved into the top 10 with a win over Notre Dame at Heinz Field and then either suffered a hangover or got caught looking ahead when they stumbled in Morgantown a week later.

Keeping with the Notre Dame theme, there was the 2012 game, when Pitt just missed knocking off the top-ranked Irish in triple-overtime and then fell behind UConn 24-0 at halftime six days later.

I guess you could even go across seasons and connect the 13-9 season finale in 2007 to the loss to Bowling Green that opened the 2008 season. That was a rather epic letdown.

Those are some of the games that come to mind when I think of Pitt suffering a letdown after a big win. But I don’t think the 2013 Panthers or the 2008 Panthers are necessarily relevant for the 2021 team, aside from the damaged Pitt fan psyche.

What’s relevant for this year’s team is what we’ve seen in recent seasons, and we look back over the last six seasons and consider the Panthers’ biggest wins, I don’t think you see many next-game letdowns. The first big win of the Pat Narduzzi era was the Penn State game in 2016; Pitt lost at Oklahoma State the next week, but that was hardly a dud game - the Panthers just came out on the losing end against a pretty good team, which I don’t think would be comparable to losing to Western Michigan this week.

Going forward through the years, I already mentioned the 2016 Clemson game and Pitt’s response a week later. In 2017, Pitt’s biggest win was over Miami in the finale, so there was no opportunity for a letdown the next week. In 2018, the Panthers had a few opportunities for letdowns: they upset a ranked Virginia team on a Friday night and came back to wallop Virginia Tech at home a week later. And they followed the aforementioned walloping with a Coastal-clinching trip to Wake Forest.

You could contend that Pitt had a letdown a week after the Wake game when the Panthers lost at Miami, but I don’t think that’s the same thing.

The biggest win of the 2019 season was the upset of UCF at Heinz Field, and while Pitt’s win over Delaware the next week wasn’t a blowout, it was still a win without the team’s top quarterback or running backs playing.

So I don’t see a lot of examples of Narduzzi’s teams suffering that letdown-after-a-big-win. Part of that is due to the relative paucity of “big wins,” but when the Panthers have gotten a big win under Narduzzi, they have generally responded well the next week.

With the group of seniors on this team and a head coach who seems to do a pretty good job of keeping the team focused, I don’t expect Pitt to have any issues this weekend. Western Michigan won’t be pushovers, but the challenge they present to the Panthers will be more due to WMU’s talent than Pitt’s approach.

Is this a problem?
There were a few concerns coming out of the Tennessee game, and chief among them was the defense.

It wasn’t necessarily that Tennessee went up and down the field on Pitt; the Volunteers had 374 yards of total offense but never really established their ground game and had less than 250 passing yards. The home team only had four drives of more than 45 yards and scored three touchdowns when they started more than 3 yards from the end zone.

And yet, there was a real feeling of dread throughout the game on Saturday. Starting quarterback Joe Milton had several wide-open receivers among the five incomplete passes he threw before leaving with an injury. Backup Hendon Hooker was a little better - 15-of-21, 188 yards, two touchdowns and one interception - but neither quarterback looked very good.

The struggles of Milton and Hooker were good for Pitt, because the Panthers seemed to experience a higher-than-normal number of coverage busts and missed tackles.

According to Pro Football Focus, Pitt’s defense missed 17 tackles; you don’t need me to tell you that the Panthers can’t miss 17 tackles in every game and expect to win.

So yes, there were some real concerns, but I’m not jumping off the bridge about the defense just yet, and I’ll tell you why.

For starters, I think that the two biggest issues on Saturday - coverage busts and missed tackles - are correctable. Pitt wasn’t getting beat physically by superior athletes; they played sloppy. Maybe there was a lack of focus, maybe Tennessee’s tempo was impacting the defense or maybe it was just one of those days.

Whatever it was, Pitt didn’t play a very clean game. But the upside of a messy game like that is that it can be cleaned up.

Fundamentals can be drilled to improve tackling (which hasn’t been an issue in recent years) and certain key points of the coverage schemes and be re-emphasized. I’m sure that’s what the coaches have focused on this week, and ideally that work will render last week’s game as the low point of the season.

And here’s the other thing: for as much as Saturday’s game was full of issues and errors and busts on defense, there was still a lot to like.

Nine tackles for loss, five sacks, three turnovers and some big-time performances at key moments.

The end of the game was a perfect example: Tennessee drove to the Pitt 3 (aided by a pair of 15 yards penalties on Pitt’s defense) before the Panthers stuffed a fourth-and-1 handoff. Then, on the Volunteers’ next possession, Brandon Hill picked off a Hooker pass to clinch the win.

It was a messy game for the defense, but they made more than a few game-winning plays (I think Keyshon Camp and Habakkuk Baldonado both get game balls for their strip sacks).

So the end verdict on the defense, for Week Two, is that they made some impact plays but have plenty to clean up. Which sounds about right for the second week of the season. But those things have to get in order right quick, because Pitt might not be quite so lucky the next time they miss 17 tackles and bust coverages with all too much frequency.

ONE PREDICTION

Pickett will be No. 1
…of all time.

I’m talking about Pitt’s all-time passing list here, and after two games this season, I will go out on a limb - a solid, if not a little shaky, limb - and say that by the time the 2021 season ends, Alex Van Pelt will be replaced by Kenneth Shane Pickett as Pitt’s all-time leader in career passing yards.

Let’s set the stage.

In some of Pitt’s darkest years, Van Pelt threw for a billion yards. Or 11,267, if you’re into specificity and accuracy and all of that.

As we stand right now, Pickett has thrown for 8,541 career yards. He is currently No. 3 on Pitt’s all-time list; with 57 more yards, he will pass Dan Marino for the No. 2 spot. That should come in the first quarter on Saturday, at which point, the sights will be set on Van Pelt.

Now, it’s not going to be a walk in the park for Pickett to get to the top. He needs 2,727 yards to pass Van Pelt; if Pitt plays 11 more games this season, that means averaging 248 passing yards per game.

Which actually doesn’t sound like a lot.

In 23 games with Mark Whipple as Pitt’s offensive coordinator, Pickett has thrown for at least 248 yards 12 times, including both games this season. What’s more, he has averaged 263.1 passing yards per game with Whipple, so simply maintaining that pace will get him past Van Pelt.

The caveat, of course, is missed games. Pickett missed one game in 2019 and two last season, and with his style of play, where quarterback rushing attempts are a weapon, it’s not guaranteed that he will play the remaining 11 games this season.

If he misses one game, Pickett would have to average 272.7 passing yards per game over 10 contests to hit the needed 2,727 yards. That’s a bit more challenging - and above his career average under Whipple. But it’s still within reach.

I know there will be contention over the number of games played. Pickett has started games in five seasons, whereas Van Pelt was “only” a four-year starter. But the difference isn’t really that great. Van Pelt started and played in 45 games from 1989-92. So far, Pickett has played in 41 games with as many as 11 (or 12, I suppose) remaining. Technically, he is only four games away from matching Van Pelt’s total number of games played, but that includes Pickett’s freshman year when he played one snap against Syracuse and 22 snaps against N.C. State and only made one start.

The other caveat with Pickett is that he was the quarterback in 2018, when Pitt had virtually no passing game to speak of and set records with its rushing attack.

Either way, provided Pickett stays healthy, I will go on record saying that he finishes this season at the top of the list.