In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're talking about a lot of the things we've been talking about all along - and how that's a big part of the problem.

Plus: what can be fixed, what's up for spring camp and a prediction on the next few games.

28th verse, same as the first

Well, not quite the first, because that Radford game was pretty rad, from Pitt’s perspective.

The Murray State and Gardner-Webb games were, too. And who didn’t like the West Virginia game? Not to mention the VMI and LSU games.

That’s a heck of a start to a season. Listen to this: Pitt never trailed in four of those first six games and only trailed Murray State by three and LSU by one.

(The trend of big leads for the opponent wouldn’t start, really, until the Ohio State game; the Buckeyes led that one by 12. Mississippi State built on that by taking a 35-point lead at one point against Pitt, and it has been more or less that way ever since, with few exceptions).

Anyway, the topic here today is the same topic we’ve discussed multiple times this week, multiple times this month and multiple times this season:

The fact that this year’s Pitt men’s basketball team has certain unseemly qualities that have come to serve as both explanations for the Panthers’ shortcomings and defining traits of its season.

There are a lot of reasons why they are the way that they are, but for now, let’s start with what we talk about when we talk about Pitt.

We talk about rebounding, or the lack thereof. The Panthers are 8-12-2 on the glass against power-conference competition and 5-10-2 in ACC games. And there’s a direct correlation to wins and losses, as Pitt is 2-10 this season when it gets out-rebounded in conference games.

Nothing shocking there. Rebounding is a key element in basketball, and if you lose the boards, you’re probably going to lose the game more often than not.

Another thing that Pitt is this season is a particularly poor defensive team. Again, there are a lot of reasons why this is the case, but it’s pretty striking. Ishmael Leggett has been fine. Zack Austin has been fine. Damian Dunn was supposed to be good but he has missed the majority of the season with injuries. Jaland Lowe hasn’t really done a great job on that end of the court. And the centers - the ones who play center and the ones who don’t - haven’t really been all that effective.

The end result includes easy paths to the basket on well-executed cuts and closeouts that aren’t good enough on three-point shooters.

Oh, and teams get a decent amount of easy buckets on second-chance opportunities due to the aforementioned rebounding issues.

And finally, the other biggest problem for this team - although it encompasses a lot of problems - is the seeming inability to start games with any kind of cohesive play at either end of the court.

I don’t have stats on this, but Pitt has to be one of the worst first-half teams in the country. The Panthers have scored 30 or fewer points in the first half nine times this season. That seems like a preposterous number, particularly for a team that was supposed to have its strength on offense.

Not surprisingly, Pitt is 2-7 in those nine games.

And while some of those seven losses - like the Duke game or the Virginia game or the SMU game - ended up being blowouts, that wasn’t the case for all of them. Pitt scored 30 points in the first half against Clemson; that game went to overtime, so even 31 or 32 points in the first half might have secured a win. The Panthers were held to 30 on Saturday at Notre Dame; that one ended up as a four-point game. And they scored 30 against Georgia Tech in the first half Tuesday night; the final of that game was 73-67.

In all of those games, just a little more offense in the first half could have made the difference. And that’s to say nothing of the one-point loss at North Carolina (Pitt trailed by 10 in the first half) or the one-point loss at Wake Forest (the Panthers were down nine in the first half).

That’s five games that went in the loss column for Pitt when just a bit more effective offense in the first half could have turned them into wins. Even if the Panthers couldn’t convert all of those games into wins, landing a few of them - say, the Clemson game and the road trips to Wake Forest and North Carolina - casts the season in a considerably different light.

But that’s not what happened. Pitt lost all of those games, and in a fashion that’s just about as frustrating as it gets, if only because it was so damn familiar.

It’s just exhausting

The worst thing about all of those issues is what I just said:

They’re so familiar.

Maybe this is the downside of 30-game schedules (and I really feel for those poor souls who follow hapless NBA and NHL teams). When a team has inherent flaws that it either cannot or will not correct, you end up seeing the same thing over and over.

Every game, they dig a deep hole that they can’t get out of (not every game, but most).

Every game, they get out-rebounded (not every game, but most).

Every game, they struggle to play effective defense (again, most).

Every game, their offense gets bogged down by forced shots, sloppy passes or simple bad luck (and again, most).

Over and over again, the same things keep happening. I don’t know why the same things keeps happening - in my “Three-Pointers” piece after the Georgia Tech game, I literally asked that question three times - but they keep happening.

And, you know, that wears on you after awhile.

I can only imagine how it feels from the stands, but from the press box, it certainly makes things tough when you’re writing about another loss - 10 of the last 14 - and they all look the same. They all happen for the same reasons. And with only a few exceptions (Duke, Virginia and SMU), they were all relatively close games that had relatively similar outcomes for relatively similar reasons.

What new questions are there to ask in the post-game press conference? What new ways are there to tell the story of the game? What new analysis can you offer up in the content you produce the next day?

It even applies to this 3-2-1 Column. Earlier this week, I started planning out what I would write about and one topic that came to mind was the center position. How has it been used (or misused) this season? Where were the fatal flaws in both concept and execution? What does Pitt really need from the center position? And can Jeff Capel change his approach to get more of what the Panthers need?

Timely, topical and relevant. Sounds good, right?

It’s so good, in fact, that I wrote it two weeks ago.

I don’t want to say we’re running out of topics. There are plenty of topics. We’re just running out of ways to say it.

Rebounding. Defense. Slow starts. Inefficient offense.

Refense. Destarts. Slowffense. Ineffbounding.

No matter how you mix and match, it’s all the same, and that’s probably the most frustrating part:

We’re all just watching the same movie over and over again, and the hero keeps shooting himself in the foot with the same gun.

The definition of something

One of the most well-worn cliches - in life and certainly in sports - is that doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.

I don’t consider that insanity. Or, at least, I wouldn’t call that insanity. I would call it stubbornness or perhaps a lack of awareness or maybe just prioritizing being right over actually getting it right.

Insanity is something different.

What we’re seeing with Pitt basketball this season isn’t insanity. It’s stubbornness. Perhaps a lack of awareness. Maybe just prioritizing being right over actually getting it right.

I’m not sure which one it is, and anything those of us outside the program guess would be just that:

A guess.

All we can do from this vantage point is look at the product on the court, the ways it works and doesn’t work, the ways it succeeds and the ways it fails, and try to figure out what’s happening.

What gets tricky when you’re on the outside is when your search for answers relies on what you can see. And when what you can see doesn’t include much in the way of change…well, you start to wonder what’s being done to improve things.

Because on a lot of levels, it doesn’t look like much.

Look, I’m not advocating change for the sake of change. I don’t think coaches typically do that; more often, they’ll default to the players they believe give them the best chance to win. And I’m not saying Pitt needs to bench the starters and put five new guys out there.

I mean, I actually did advocate for that at one point in the first half against Georgia Tech - just a full-scale line change - but I’m willing to believe that the coaches believe they’re playing the guys who give the team the best chance to win.

At some point, though, doesn’t it feel a bit like banging your head against the wall? If the same guys are getting beat in the same ways, whether it’s offense, defense or rebounding, then don’t you have to look for solutions?

Maybe you don’t undergo a full-scale system change and try to play a completely different style. And maybe you don’t even need to get 25 minutes for bench guys.

But it’s fairly remarkable to me that Pitt’s bench has actually shrunk through the second half of the season, when the Panthers have gone 4-10 over the last 14 games. Being stuck in a rut seems like a good reason to try to mix up personnel and see if anyone can give you a boost.

I suppose a case could be made that Pitt was in it for most of those games. Duke, Virginia and SMU were the only real blowout losses, and perhaps in the close games, the coaches wanted to stick with their best players.

I get that. I do. But I think there’s a middle ground between rolling 10-deep and never touching the bench unless there’s an injury or foul trouble.

I don’t know what that middle ground looks like, and I think it probably needed to be discovered during the non-conference, but it feels like it’s out there somewhere. Unfortunately, with the season quickly unraveling and only three games left, there aren’t going to be a lot of ideal spots for breaking guys in.

The time to do it was a month ago or two months ago. But that didn’t happen, so now Pitt is running with a bench that is effectively six-deep.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Can it get better?

Every now and then, there’s this thing I do.

Sometimes, when things seem really bad and there’s no hope and nothing can or will get better, I start poking around in the what-might-happen bin to see if there’s a good outcome or two that might be lurking out there.

So let’s do that.

Most Pitt fans understand that it's highly unlikely Jeff Capel is going anywhere after this season. They’ll run it back, so to speak, although it won’t be the same cast of characters (it never is in college sports these days). Zack Austin, Damian Dunn and Ishmael Leggett will be out of eligibility, and it’s almost automatic that a non-zero number of underclassmen will head for the transfer portal.

But let’s say they bring back a handful of key guys. For this exercise, we’ll speculate that Jaland Lowe, Cam Corhen, Brandin Cummings, Amsal Delalic, the Diaz Graham twins and let’s say Papa Amadou Kante come back.

We’ll start with that group.

I think for any player, particularly freshmen and sophomores, there’s a reasonable expectation of development. Nothing crazy. No projecting Brandin Cummings to turn into Brandin Knight or anything like that. Just a reasonable amount of development that should happen year-to-year.

Take Lowe, for example. I think it’s reasonable to expect that, from his sophomore year to his junior year, he can grow a little bit. Maybe he gets a little better in his shooting and a lot better in his decision-making. Lowe’s biggest issues offensively this season were that he shot a lot but didn’t shoot well and that he sometimes forced things; he can improve in both of those areas - not in a Giant Leap Forward, but just in the process of natural growth and development.

Ditto for Cummings and Delalic. There’s every reason to believe - nay, expect - those two to be a good deal better as sophomores than they were as freshmen. Which is to say, there’s every reason to expect those two to “earn minutes,” in the parlance of our times.

I’m sure there were things the coaches saw in practice this season that led them to view Cummings and Delalic as liabilities on the court, which limited their playing time. But by next fall, they should be a little further ahead - far enough to get more opportunities to showcase their talents (of which they have quite a few; I’m still convinced of that).

So if those three completely reasonable and natural progressions happen, I think it’s possible to find a little buried optimism.

I know that development from Lowe, Delalic and Cummings won’t cure the center woes. It won’t cure the rebounding problems. It won’t cure the lack of bench usage. It won’t cure some of the other intangible things that have driven fans nuts this season.

But I do think it would improve the shooting and give Pitt three solid ball-handlers to put on the court together - something that hasn’t really been a consistent option for the Panthers this season.

More would be needed, of course. A solid wing from the portal would be at the top of the list. And the staff is going to have to make a decision or two about the center position (quite possibly the most interesting discussion point of the offseason).

But I think this team could have a different and potentially better look from the start if a few of those guys take some natural steps forward.

What’s up for spring camp?

We’ll take at least one detour here today to talk about football. Everybody good with that?

Setting aside the cognitive peculiarities that stood out in Pitt’s most recent trip to the football field, this figures to be an interesting spring camp.

The second year in a new offensive system is always a big one. Everybody has spent a whole calendar year learning the scheme and getting used to it, and the transition from Frank Cignetti to Kade Bell was certainly one that took some getting used to.

Now, a full 15 months after Bell was hired, Pitt will enter spring camp working not to learn the offense but rather to refine it.

I think that’s big. There will still be plenty of teaching, of course, but Bell and his staff can work on developing the offense rather than laying the foundation for it.

That process starts with Eli Holstein. Like everyone else, he has been working in this offense for a full year now. He showed flashes of brilliance and the kind of play that can elevate a team; this year, he needs to play at a consistent level that doesn’t require the “…for a redshirt freshman” caveat that was often attached to his play in 2024.

More interesting to me is what happens in front of Holstein, particularly this spring. Pitt really only has one starter to replace from the offensive lineup the Panthers were using at the end of last season, but the coaches brought in three transfers, so there’s obviously going to be competition.

I think that will take a lot of forms. There will be depth chart shuffles but also position moves, with guys going from guard to tackle or vice-versa. What does that look like and how does that all shake out?

I’m really curious, mostly because it’s one of the biggest and most important questions facing the team this season.

And I’m kind of intrigued by the receivers. The coaches brought in three transfer receivers and a handful of freshmen who enrolled early; that group is going to be a lot different this season, and we’ll get our first look at them in spring camp.

On defense, there was another overhaul at defensive end, and that was certainly much-needed (the loss of Sincere Edwards is probably going to hurt more than any other attrition Pitt suffered). But there’s promising young talent at defensive tackle, the linebackers are solid and the defensive backs are firmly in “trust the staff” territory.

The biggest thing this spring - and this season - is the offensive line. That group has to be upgraded, and the process of finalizing that begins right now.

And maybe once spring camp gets started, we’ll get a chance to follow up with Pat Narduzzi about that field goal in Detroit…

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt will win at least three more games

This may be a bit of an odd prediction, but in the last 3-2-1 Column that I wrote, I predicted Pitt would beat Miami the next day and end the losing streak it was on, and hey, look at that: the Panthers won.

I debated doing something similar in this column, but predicting that Pitt would beat Miami at home is a bit easier to sell than predicting that the Panthers will go get a win on the road at Louisville tomorrow. So I’ll skip that.

But I’ll look down the road and say that Pitt finishes the regular season on a two-game winning streak that carries itself into at least one more win in the ACC Tournament.

The final two games will see Pitt go to N.C. State (11-17, 4-13) on Wednesday night and then close the regular season against Boston College (12-16, 4-13). Those two should be wins. I know Pitt just lost to two teams with losing records in conference play and non-winning records overall - Notre Dame and Georgia Tech - but I’m going to hold out hope that the Panthers can take care of business against two teams that realistically could miss the ACC Tournament (the only team in the conference with fewer wins is Miami, who is 2-15).

If Pitt wins those two and loses at Louisville, the Panthers will be 9-11 in ACC play; that means they can get no higher than eighth in the final league standings, which means that the best-case scenario - which will depend on a number of things that are out of Pitt’s control - is playing at noon on Wednesday in the conference tourney.

If the Panthers win those two and get to 9-11 but other elements don’t break their way, they could easily find themselves playing on Tuesday.

There are probably eight or so teams that they could potentially face in that scenario, ranging from teams they’ve beaten (Virginia Tech, Syracuse and Cal) to teams that beat them (Florida State, Virginia and Notre Dame).

So there are a lot of ways it could go. But I think if Pitt ends up playing on Tuesday, the Panthers should be able to get a win, which might actually up my prediction to them adding four more wins - two in the regular season and wins on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Look, they’re struggling right now. I know that. You know that. But the season has reached its current level of disappointment because the team should very much be better than it is.

The flip side of that is that it implies a certain belief in how good they can be. They haven’t reached it consistently, but they’ve shown that a higher ceiling exists.

Which tells me they can reach it again.

So that’s my prediction: at least three more wins this season and quite possibly four.