We've got a lot of hoops to discuss in this week's 3-2-1 Column, from the disappointment of Pitt's season so far to the reasons the Panthers have fallen short and a lot more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

The pressure of expectations

…or, the higher you climb, the more painful the fall

There’s a lot to say about the Pitt basketball team right now.

Mired as it is in its second four-game losing streak of the season and having lost eight of its last 10 to go from a top-four spot in the ACC to the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, Pitt is close enough to smell the foul odor of those three poor teams who will miss the conference tournament next month.

It’s a remarkable fall from where the Panthers were five weeks and a few days ago. Fresh off a pair of home wins and sitting at 12-2 overall and 3-0 in the ACC, Pitt was riding high as it flew to Durham to face Duke.

We know how that went, and while the Blue Devils’ inherent superiority allowed for some rationalization after that particular blowout, the ensuing string of missed opportunities and, of late, blowout losses, have sent the team, its hopes and its fans in a downward spiral.

It’s not worth recounting all of the disappointments since there are many, and I suspect readership of this column would drop abruptly if I spent the next few paragraphs talking about those games.

The point here is expectations and the pressure that comes with them.

And the reality is, the expectations didn’t just start climbing when Pitt took care of business against Cal and Stanford or when Zack Austin’s buzzer-beater fell at Ohio State or when the Panthers beat West Virginia by 20+.

The expectations started before that. The expectations started when Pitt returned key players from last season and complemented them with two veteran transfers who would fill essential roles.

The expectations started when the team seemed to be motivated by last year’s NCAA Tournament snub.

The expectations started when Pitt, led by Jeff Capel, vowed to Leave No Doubt.

As someone on the message boards said this week, the Panthers have certainly left no doubt.

Unfortunately, they haven’t exactly issued the kind of confirmation everyone was looking for.

And thats why, somehow, this year’s collapse seems even more painful than some of the collapses it has been compared to.

In Capel’s first four seasons, Pitt was downright awful in January and February. That was mostly due to the increase in the level of competition, but the record tells the story: 17-42 in January and February over those four seasons, including just six total wins in the month of February.

(For comparison, Pitt won six games in February in the 2022-23 season and five in February last season. Oh, how we long for the golden age.)

January and February were miserable times in those first four years, to be sure, and this year is tracking to be on the same path, with a 4-4 record in January and an 0-4 record this month so far.

But it’s even worse this time. No one enjoyed those February’s of the first four seasons, but each of them had an antecedent of sorts, whether it was Niagara in Capel’s first season, Nicholls State the second year, Saint Francis - Pa.! - in the third year or The Citadel (and UMBC and Monmouth) in Year Four.

Those teams exposed their flaws early on, but more importantly, I don’t think anyone had expectations in those seasons that were as high as the expectations coming into this season.

And that has made this current collapse that much more painful.

Comparing football and basketball

It has become fairly common to refer to the current state of the Pitt men’s basketball team in the same context as the fate of the Pitt football team.

Both got off to blazing hot starts. And both fell apart as the season progressed.

There was hype. And then there wasn’t.

The fact that this scenario was repeated by the pro football team in town only accentuated the respective collapses, and it has created something of a sense that all of these collapses were the same.

But they weren’t.

And unfortunately for the Pitt hoops team, I think their situation is worse than the one on the football side.

For one thing, like we just discussed, this Pitt basketball team entered the current season with some high expectations. Maybe not everyone shared them, but I think the vast majority saw this team as having a pretty high ceiling.

They lost their top two scorers, of course, and that takes some effort to replace. But they brought back a promising young point guard and a strong, physical scoring guard. They also added a veteran to the back court and a center who was supposed to bring some much-needed offense to the post.

After last year’s near-miss on the NCAA Tournament, this year’s team was supposed to use a stronger non-conference schedule as a vault into the postseason.

They were supposed to Leave No Doubt, as it were.

The football team, by contrast, had considerably lower expectations. Pitt was coming off a three-win season with an unproven first-year starter at quarterback, a bunch of FCS transfers in the offensive skill positions and a defense that had lost multiple starters to the transfer portal.

Expectations were low.

Of course, we all know that preseason expectations go out the window once the season actually starts, and the Pitt football team built some pretty high expectations with its 7-0 start. But the basketball took its already-higher expectations and increased those with its own strong start.

And the other thing is, the Pitt football team has something the basketball team doesn’t (at least not yet):

A good excuse.

The football Panthers saw their season go in the tank when two key injuries - left tackle Branson Taylor and quarterback Eli Holstein - effectively wrecked the offense.

The basketball Panthers have no such excuse. Sure, Damian Dunn missed a seven-game stretch and is likely to miss the rest of the season, but Pitt went 6-1 in those seven games without Dunn and 2-7 in nine games after he returned, so I don’t think his injury does much in the service of rationalization. Certainly not on the level of Taylor and Holstein.

In some respects, that has probably had some effect on how the performances of Pat Narduzzi and Jeff Capel are being viewed. I would think it’d be tough to get worse reviews than a coach who loses six games in a row, including a miserable bowl game against Toledo, but Capel seems to have done it.

This Pitt basketball team should have been better than it has been, and it’s a pretty considerable disappointment that the Panthers have had the season they’ve had. Disappointment takes different forms, and both teams have had plenty of it. But whereas the football team outperformed expectations until injuries broke things apart, the basketball team has fallen short of its high expectations through failures of its own.

What they should be

There’s a common refrain on the boards these days, something everyone seems to be saying and not in too many different ways.

No, I’m not talking about firing the coach. That’s been said plenty, to be sure, but we’re not going into that territory in today’s column.

I’m talking about the notion that this Pitt team should be better than it is. It should be playing better than it has, it should have a better record than it does and it should better positioned for the postseason than it currently is.

The path from expectations to reality can take a lot of twists and turns, and we can look at some of those twists and turns, but I just keep thinking about the recurring theme:

It’s not a perfect team, but it should be good enough to avoid a pair of four-game losing streaks and only getting two wins in 10 games.

There are flaws, to be sure, but they are not so great that the team should struggle as mightily as it has.

The first question along those lines, of course, is whether or not we overestimated the talent level on this team. And to some extent, I think we pretty clearly did. I know I did.

So what was this team supposed to be? Here’s what I think my expectation was:

A guard-led team with a point guard who could create and distribute while flanked by two veteran guards who were crafty and strong defenders, with a set of wings who provided matchup issues on the outside and a center who could bring some much-needed offense to the post. They might not have the shooters that last year’s team had, but they could shoot well enough to be a threat - and they would have more open looks thanks to all of that post offense.

That was the plan, as I saw it, and I bought in on it.

Obviously, a few of those things didn’t come to fruition. The guards struggled with efficiency. The outside shooting wasn’t consistent enough (and the team’s best shooters seemed to be relegated to backup roles, at best). And the post scoring might have improved in terms of numbers, but it hasn’t really translated to anything that can help the team all that much.

Throw in some serious issues with rebounding and defense and, well, you get what we had here this week.

Which isn’t the way anybody wants it.

And yet, I still can’t shake the feeling that this team should be better. I still think Jaland Lowe is really good. I think Ishmael Leggett is, too. And I think there is legitimate shooting ability on this team. Maybe the defense and rebounding have a certain ceiling - one that isn’t particularly high - but this team shouldn’t struggle as much as it does offensively.

Something isn’t connecting, and it’s leaving the team well short of its goals - and what I perceive to be its ceiling.

When this team plays well, Lowe and Leggett are creating shots by getting into (or near) the lane. When this team plays well, Zack Austin and Guillermo Diaz Graham and some of the bench guys are getting open looks from deep and knocking them down. When this team plays well, Cam Corhen is rolling out of screens to draw attention or get a clean look at a layup.

It may be tough to remember because it seems like it hasn’t happened in a long time, but when this team plays well, its offense can be pretty potent.

The question, of course, is why that hasn’t happened more. We all have our theories and a lot of them are backed up by generally-accepted math, but when Jeff Capel sits down at the end of the season, he’s going to have to ask himself this very question:

Should this team have been better than it was?

And if so, why wasn’t it?

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Is center scoring all that necessary?

At some point during the offseason, a Pitt fan on the message boards - and I wish I could remember who said it - raised an interesting point. Paraphrasing, it went something like this:

“Last year, Cam Corhen scored 25 points against Pitt and Florida State still lost that game by 15.”

I thought about that a lot, because I’ll be the first to admit (and have been reminded plenty):

I bought in on Corhen being a Missing Piece for this team.

Interior scoring was a big issue for Pitt last season, and rebounding from the center position wasn’t far behind. Federiko Federiko did some things well, but rebounding and finishing at the basket weren’t very high on the list. An upgrade was needed, and it sure seemed like the coaches found it in Corhen.

Jeff Capel convinced me. When I spoke to him over the summer, he cited Corhen’s ability to convert two-point baskets and emphasized that playing in Pitt’s defensive system with fewer switches would give him an opportunity to put up better rebounding numbers than he had at FSU.

Sure, there would be a fall-off on the defensive end, but the scoring and rebounding would make up for it; Corhen was sold as the needed fix, and I certainly bought in.

But that point about how useful post scoring is - that stuck with me. Corhen went off against Pitt, and a fat lot of good that did for the Seminoles that day at the Petersen Events Center.

It was still lingering in my mind one day in the fall when I asked Capel something along those lines:

“Does post scoring really matter all that much?”

I even prefaced it with something along the lines of the original post on the board, saying “Cam scored 25 against you guys and still lost by 15.”

I can’t find Capel’s response, but I remember the gist of it. He replied by making a reference to Zach Edey, who led Purdue to the national championship game while averaging 25.2 points per game.

But here’s the rub:

That only works as a plan if you have a guy like Zach Edey. If you have an Edey, then you can rely on post scoring and it can carry you. But if you don’t…

Look, I’m not saying you give up on trying to score from the center position. But if you’re Pitt, you probably need to re-evaluate how you want to do that. From my perspective, the most important thing you can get from the center is offensive rebounding and put-backs.

Rather than trying to find somebody who can post up and be a focal point of the offense, put a bigger emphasis on finding that guy who can grab boards on the offensive end and finish on the put-backs.

College basketball is guard-led nowadays; what you need from the center is the ability to collect the guards’ misses and turn them into something (in addition to setting screens and occasionally rolling to the basket).

And to that end, Corhen has fallen short. He has grabbed more than two offensive rebounds just four times in 24 games this season.

The Pitt staff was right to try to improve the offensive production from the center position, but it sure does look like they bungled the execution of that plan - and maybe had the wrong intentions from the start.

How should the money be spent?

The word of the offseason is going to be “buyout,” and it has already been beaten to death, even though we’re only to Valentine’s Day.

Look, we all know the score. Jeff Capel is in the process of finishing his seventh season at Pitt, and if things continue on their current course, he will have led the Panthers to one NCAA Tournament appearance in those seven years.

Whether through poor play or roster issues - and oftentimes both - Capel’s teams at Pitt have underperformed, and this year’s group is shaping up to be arguably the most disappointing one yet.

This kind of season inevitably leads to a conversation about a coach’s job status. Coaches know it, and I don’t think they’re too surprised when they see discussion about whether or not they should be fired (although I’m sure that has to sting, even if you’ve been around for awhile).

We’ve been here before, too. Three years ago, in fact. Pitt won 11 games total in Capel’s fourth season, including just six wins in the ACC and a putrid 5-6 record in non-conference games. Transfers abounded (again) and everything was in a general state of disarray (again, or maybe still).

Back then, the word of the offseason was “buyout,” and it was usually paired with something along the lines of, “Pitt shouldn’t and probably can’t pay it.” Plenty of fans wanted Pitt to pay Capel’s buyout, but it was generally understood that dishing out eight figures to make someone go away just didn’t make a whole lot of sense.

Fast-forward three years, and it feels like we’re careening toward an offseason of similar discussions. And thanks to a three-year extension Capel received over the summer, his contract is in almost the exact same place as it was three years ago.

Back then, Capel had three years left on his deal - just like he does right now.

Which means the buyout is probably somewhere in the same neighborhood. In the absence of concrete numbers, I think we can all agree that it’s “a lot.”

The situation isn’t exactly the same as it was three years ago, though. Sure, Capel has the same number of years left on his contract and probably a similar buyout, but there’s a big difference:

In 2025, colleges have even more things to spend money on.

We all know the revenue-sharing model is coming to college sports. It has been generally, if not formally, accepted by all interested parties in the industry and, barring some crazy turn of events this spring, will be officially enacted in July.

At that point, Pitt and anybody else who wants to be competitive in football and men’s basketball is going to be on the hook for roughly $20 million or so that will go to the players.

That’s $20 million that Pitt didn’t have to spend last year.

So does it make much sense to go deeper into the hole to buy Capel out of his final three years and then even deeper to hire someone new in addition to finding that $20 million?

No, I don’t think it does.

I think if you have the option of investing $5-7 million in roster retention/player acquisition or investing what could be upwards of $20-25 million in a buyout, a new coach’s contract and player acquisition (because nobody retains a roster in a coaching change these days), you have to take the former.

And you know what? It might just work out. Coaching always matters, of course, but in basketball - even more than football - investing money wisely and getting a handful of the right guys can bring you a whole bunch of wins.

I mean, hey, if you’re feeling down about the whole thing, remember: the last time Pitt couldn’t fire Capel because of his buyout (by his own admission), it worked out.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt breaks the losing streak tomorrow

Sometimes we make big, broad predictions. Other times, we make hyper-specific predictions that likely (hopefully?) will be forgotten before they are disproven.

In this case, we’re doing none of that. We’re keeping it simple:

We’re predicting that Pitt beats Miami tomorrow.

That’s all. Just beat the worst team in the ACC. Just beat the team that has won six games total and two in the conference.

That’s all.

Just beat them.

Nobody is going to give Pitt any national prestige for beating Miami. Nobody is going to move the Panthers into a projected NCAA Tournament bracket if they win tomorrow. Nobody is going to say Pitt is back.

None of that is in reach for the Panthers. Not tomorrow, at least.

All that’s in reach is a chance to stop the bleeding. A chance to break the losing streak. A chance to remember what it feels like to win a game.

There might not be any long-term implications from doing so, but at least in the short term, Pitt can give the fans a pleasant afternoon at the Petersen Events Center.

The Hurricanes aren’t complete pushovers. They’ve got one of the better offenses in the ACC, particularly inside the arc, where they shoot 54.3%.

So I’m guessing Miami will find success against Pitt as well, but I don’t know if the Hurricanes are quite as good at the things that have hurt the Panthers this season. They’re not very good at shooting three’s, and their defense has been their undoing (aside from having their coach walk away the day after Christmas). So Pitt shouldn’t get killed from outside, and the Panthers should be able to score.

They’ll likely have to do it without Jaland Lowe, which makes things tough. But I think the silver lining to Lowe’s absence (and the absence of Damian Dunn) is that we’ll see a bit more of some guys that I think a lot of Pitt fans would like to see.

Give Brandin Cummings a chance. Get Jorge Diaz Graham on the court more. Maybe see if Amsal Delalic really can shoot.

I think all three of those guys can make positive contributions, and my prediction is that they’ll do it tomorrow, leading Pitt to a victory that doesn’t change any big-picture views on the team but at least gives the fans a nice weekend.