MORE FROM PANTHER-LAIR.COM - The Kenny Pickett Show, Ep. 13: Moving on from a loss | Pitt loses LB Davis to transfer portal | Sibande out for the season after ACL tear | Under the lights: How did Pitt's recruits fare this weekend? | How the ACC sees the ACC: Week Ten rankings | Film review: How Miami beat Pitt's defense | 2022 SF Buchanan sees more of Pitt on official visit | PODCAST: Davis transfers, Sibande gets hurt and Pitt gets ranked

In this week's 3-2-1 column, we talk about the aftermath of Pitt's loss to Miami, start looking ahead to the rest of the season, and maybe a potential record being broken on Saturday.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

A different feel this week
Pitt’s 38-34 loss to Miami created a different vibe around the Pitt football this week. The players and coaches did not have the same energy. The buzz around the team was different. It all changed in the blink of an eye.

The talk of being a possible candidate to crash into the College Football Playoffs has pretty much evaporated at this point for the Panthers. Pat Narduzzi and Kenny Pickett did not make any appearances on Sportscenter either. Pitt became one of college football’s darlings for a two-week period, and losing to Miami has all but ended it for now.

Looking back at it, however, that was a bit unprecedented, right? In the new age with internet, social media, 24/7 sports talk - Pitt has never been that team, at least from this kind of perspective. Sure, if you upset 2nd ranked teams like Clemson and Miami, you might see some headlines. Having great stories like James Conner overcoming cancer and returning to football will get you a story on College Gameday.

The week leading up to Clemson and the aftermath had a totally different feel to it. There were national articles being written about Pitt’s chances to make the playoffs alongside college football powerhouses like Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State.

The Kenny Pickett Hesiman campaign reached new heights after he threw for two touchdowns against the Clemson Tigers two weeks ago. He’s not out of the race, but his status certainly took a hit.

Everybody loves a winner, and Pitt did not keep up their end of the bargain by losing to a Miami team led by a freshman quarterback and running back on Saturday. The Panthers defense was torched in the first quarter and the offense had to play catch-up all game. Upsets happen in college football, but in Pitt’s case they have been on the opposite side more often than that in recent memory.

Plenty still on the table

Pitt is 6-2, in first place in the ACC Coastal, and ranked 25th in the initial college football playoff rankings. The team has a Heisman Trophy candidate as well in Kenny Pickett. In most seasons, that’s something followers of the team would sign up for in a heartbeat. Setting aside the head-scratching losses this season, Pitt is still in position to have its best season in years and is in the running to claim its first ever ACC Championship since joining the league back in 2013.

The talk of making the playoffs was nice for a time, but that would have required a perfect finish and while I believe this is a good Pitt team, I’m not sure if finishing the regular season as a top four team was ever a truly attainable goal.

Let’s talk about attainable goals.

- Pitt can still win the ACC Coastal. The team won it in 2018, and it would be the second time ever achieving that.

- The Panthers can achieve a double-digit win season with a strong finish, which would be the first since 2009.

- Head coach Pat Narduzzi can finish with his highest personal single-season win total since taking over the program. He’s reached a high-water mark of 8 wins three different seasons.

- The team can still win the ACC title outright, something this program has never done since leaving the ranks of Independents and joining the Big East in 1991.

- A conference title would mean a New Year’s Six Bowl berth, something Pitt hasn’t accomplished since making the 2004 Fiesta Bowl.

- Pitt could send a player to the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York City for the first time since Larry Fitzgerald finished second back in 2003.

- The Panthers could also finished the season ranked in the final AP Top 25 for the first time since finishing the 2009 season with a No. 15 ranking.

I am not sure what the season’s final four, five, or six games will entail for this Pitt football team, but in terms of where this program has been, this still has a chance to have a very good, if not a special season. The loss to Miami certainly cut the wind in their sails in a sense, but there is still a chance to respond and finish strong, which would help ease the sting of that loss to a degree. It all starts tomorrow with a game against Duke, as Pitt looks to continue to stack wins and stay out in front of the ACC Coastal standings.

Pitt is down a linebacker

Switching gears a bit from big picture stuff to talk about some team news. Pitt junior linebacker Wendell Davis hit the transfer portal this week. Davis, a three-star recruit out of the 2018 recruiting class was a co-starter as the team’s middle linebacker this season. He appeared in all eight games to this point and recorded 22 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and a sack.

Davis appeared in two games as a freshman in 2018, worked as a special teams player in 2019 and even returned a blocked punt for a touchdown that season. Entering the 2020 campaign, he won the starting middle linebacker job but missed the final nine games of the year with an injury.

Davis, a true middle linebacker, had been playing behind converted outside linebacker Sir’Vocea Dennis for the most part this season at the Mike position. Pitt has a group of experienced linebackers, and the team had been trying to balance that by playing sometimes six or seven linebackers a game.

Losing Davis hurts this team in the long term more so than in the final four games of this season. With Phil Campbell, Johnny Petrishen, Chase Pine, and potentially Cam Bright all moving on after this year, it would have left Davis and Dennis as the two anchors for the 2022 season. Pitt's depth at linebacker in the future has taken a rather large hit with Davis opting to transfer.

In modern college athletics, the emergence of the transfer portal has added a different dynamic to the game. Players have more freedom to move from school to school. In an ideal world you would not like to have players transfers mid-season, though. This is Pitt’s second player to transfer in as many weeks as running back AJ Davis left the program the week prior, though given his games played and eligibility on the line, it made a little more sense.

So what happened with Davis? He’s been a solid player for a few seasons and would have likely been a starter next season. He appeared to be benched in the middle of the Miami game after a 40-yard touchdown run by the Hurricanes and never returned after that. Pitt also switched linebackers coaches from Rob Harley to Ryan Manalac going into Davis' fourth year with the program. Couple that with trying to find snaps for as many as seven linebackers in a given game, there are plenty of theories as to why this transfer ultimately took place.

The 2021 Pitt team should be able to absorb this loss in the present with all the other linebackers mentioned vying for reps, but next year this could be a big loss. Under Pat Narduzzi, Pitt has been very strong at retaining players and we hear all the time about the strong culture in the building. Pitt has had more success at adding players from the transfer portal than losing them, so this one in particular certainly raises an eyebrow, at least the timing of it all.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

How does Pitt replace Nike Sibande?
The expectations are not high for the Pitt basketball team as they gear up to start the 2021-22 season on Tuesday night against The Citadel in a home game at the Petersen Events Center. The Panthers are coming off of a 10-12 season last year and lost four starters from that team, including All-ACC pick Justin Champagnie to the NBA. Jeff Capel’s team is picked to finish 14th out of 15 teams in the ACC according to the preseason poll.

If the Panthers were to outplay its preseason projection, they were going to need a big season from Nike Sibande, a senior guard that transferred from Miami (OH) ahead of last year. Sibande had a disjointed 2020-21 season, but found a rhythm late in the year as he averaged 15 points in the final five games. That included a 24-point showing in the team’s loss to Miami in the ACC Tournament.

On Tuesday of this week, the school announced Sibande would be out for the season with an ACL tear he suffered in the team’s exhibition game on Monday against Division-II program Gannon.

Talk about a devastating blow.

Pitt had little room for error entering the season, and losing a starter before the first game is crushing. There is just no other way to put it.

Pitt will need its returning backcourt of Femi Odukale and Ithiel Horton to play at a high-level all season long, especially until fellow guard Jamarius Burton returns to the lineup as he too endured a preseason injury and is not 100% yet. Talented sophomore William Jeffress will need to take a leap ahead this season. Freshman Nate Santos may be thrust into a bigger role than expected as well.

Sibande was going to play a high volume of minutes this season and expected to be a primary scorer as well. It’s unfortunate break for him on a personal level. He was not eligible last season due to NCAA transfer rules before eventually that ruling was changed. He missed time due to COVID protocols as well. This season represented a chance to be a starting ACC guard for a full year, and the opportunity was gone before it ever got going.

Jeff Capel’s squad will have to learn to adapt, but the depth will be put to the ultimate test almost immediately.

How will Pitt respond tomorrow?
We mentioned the disappointment of losing to Miami last week, but also discussed what is still on the table for this Pitt team. So how will they respond on the field of play?

Pitt has a veteran team with over 20 seniors led by Pickett, the unquestioned leader of the team. There have been moments this season where the team looks poised and unfazed and other times, like against Western Michigan and Miami, where the team can come a bit unraveled. Which Pitt team shows up on Saturday against Duke and in the three games that follow?

Following Pitt’s first loss, we heard talks of a players-only meeting that was going to fix the issues at hand. The blowout win over New Hampshire did not suppress any concerns, but winning three consecutive conference games by double digits looked like the message was well received. Pitt looked like a team on a mission during that four-game stretch after Western Michigan. Can that be replicated? Are there things to ‘fix’ before Saturday, or did Miami simply just have their number and the focus is still there?

As we mentioned, there is a lot to play for this season for the Pitt football team. Tomorrow’s game against Duke represents an opportunity to make a statement win in comfortable fashion, much like the New Hampshire game. This season, however, boils down to the North Carolina and Virginia games in the weeks that follow. Those matchups will decide Pitt’s fate and the season’s overall success.

I’m not sure what, if anything we will learn about the Pitt football team against Duke on Saturday. A win is needed for certain, but the two November home games against two divisional opponents on their tail is what will make or break this season, and Pitt can’t be caught looking ahead.

ONE PREDICTION

Kenny Pickett breaks the all-time passing mark on Saturday
This does not necessarily need to be a bold prediction, but I am making one anyway. Kenny Pickett needs 528 yards to tie Alex Van Pelt’s all-time leading passing yardage mark in Pitt history, or 529 yards to break it.

I am not putting it past him to clinch it tomorrow.

Look, in a perfect world Pitt jumps out to a big lead against an overmatched Duke team. The Panthers then run the ball for most of the second half and they sit on the lead for a comfortable win. That is likely the plan, and Pitt very well could do just that.

Something tells me it might not be that simple.

I know Duke is not a very good team in 2021, but Pitt and Duke games have been weird since the Panthers joined the league. In 2013, Pitt held on for a 58-55 win in Durham. The Blue Devils bounced back in 2014 with a 51-48 at Heinz Field in overtime. The Panthers cruised to a 56-14 win in 2016 and won in a back-and-forth affair in 2018 by a score of 54-45. Not to mention a 33-30 thrilled in 2019, Pitt’s last trip to Durham.

So if we’re keeping track the average score of a Pitt-Duke game in a seven-year sample size if Pitt 43.4, Duke 32.1.

That’s a lot of points.

Not to mention Duke is 124th in passing defense this season, giving up 294.5 yards per game. Pickett is the nation’s sixth leading passer with 2,755 yards. The Blue Devils have played three of the ACC’s top quarterbacks already. Sam Hartman of Wake Forest went for 402 yards. Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong went for 364, and Sam Howell of North Carolina had 321.

So yea, 529 yards is a lot in a single game, I get that. Pickett is coming off of a career-high 519 yards just a week ago, though.

Again, in a perfect world Pitt wins comfortably building a big lead and running the ball in the second half. On the other hand, all it would take is for Duke to break off a couple of unexpected big plays and forcing Pickett to keep moving the ball in the air.

529 yards is a big ask, but given Pickett’s play in 2021, Duke’s poor defense, and the weirdness of this series between the two teams.

As JP would say in Angels in the Outfield…