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In today's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about the issues in the passing game, transfers who have left Pitt and a lot more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

You don’t need to reinvent the wheel
…Just make it run a little smoother I came up with that line on Sunday and tried to sit on it to save it for this column, but I messed up and said it on Monday during the Morning Pitt. Oh well; I still like it.

Look, Pitt’s offense has to be better in the second half of the season. We all know that. Pitt knows that, and the performance of the offense in the first six games probably troubles the coaches and players more than it troubles those of us on the outside.

Sure, the Panthers currently rank fifth in the ACC in scoring and eighth in total offense, putting up 35 points and 430 yards per game. But the promised balance of this offense hasn’t come to fruition, and it’s not because they can’t run the ball - which was the issue in the past.

No, this year’s team struggles on the other side. Kedon Slovis has been indecisive, at least since the first half of the Tennessee game. The receivers have been unreliable. The pass protection hasn’t done anyone any favors. And the scheme doesn’t seem to have been adjusted for the aforementioned issues.

Or maybe it’s been adjusted and the adjustments just aren’t taking.

Either way, it’s not working as well as it needs to. And let’s be clear: the passing game doesn’t need to carry the load like it did in 2021. It just needs to be a competent complement to the running game. Israel Abanikanda is running well enough right now to be the foundation of this offense, and that will be doubly true when Rodney Hammond returns, which should be this week.

Those guys are really good and the running game as a whole seems to be hitting its stride. Now, if the passing game can pick it up just a little bit, this offense can be really potent and maybe good enough to get this team back to Charlotte.

The objective for Frank Cignetti is - or was, since we’re talking about the off week - finding how to improve that unit’s effectiveness.

I think there’s only so much you can do in a week. You can’t reinvent the offense. You can add some wrinkles, and I think we’ll see some new things on Saturday at Louisville. But on the whole, Cignetti needed to spend the off week looking at what worked and what didn’t, what could work and what probably won’t.

What works, particularly in the passing game? I think passes to Gavin Bartholomew work. I think passes to Konata Mumpfield work. I think passes to Jared Wayne work. I think rhythm works. I think quick-hitters work. I think dink-and-dunk works.

We’re all clamoring for a downfield passing game, but maybe Pitt needs to just get Slovis into a rhythm first. Hit some shorter passes - seven or eight yards - and mix those in with handoffs to Abanikanda and Hammond to get the chains moving. Get a little rhythm in the offense, a little momentum, and see what happens. I’m guessing the results will be good.

I think there’s enough talent in this offense. Maybe not what it was last year, but good enough to win a bunch of these final six games. And there’s plenty of evidence from the first six games about what these players can do well and what they can’t.

Pitt doesn’t need a whole new wheel on offense. It just needs to find ways to make the old one run a little smoother.

Find 86
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before - and if you’ve read anything I’ve written this week or listened to anything I’ve said this week, you’ve definitely heard it once or twice or 10 times, but I’m going to say it one more time for those who came in late:

Gavin Bartholomew needs to be a focal point of this offense.

I’m not saying he needs to be *the* focal point of the offense (that’s the running game). And I’m not saying he needs to be the most targeted tight end in the nation (that’s Michael Mayer from Notre Dame, the latest in a long line of highly-productive tight ends from the Fighting Irish).

All I’m saying is, he has to be a bigger focal point in Pitt’s offense than he was through the first six games. He needs to be higher on the list of Power Five tight ends than his current position of being tied for No. 42 in targets.

That’s criminal (also criminal: Penn State TE Brenton Strange has 17 targets, too. Get it together, Pennsylvania Power Five teams. You have stud tight ends who wear No. 86 and they’re not getting the ball enough).

It’s really pretty simple: good things happen when Bartholomew - can we call him El Barto? - gets the ball. He has been targeted 17 times and has caught 14 passes for 229 yards and two touchdowns. If an NFL quarterback threw that stat line - 14-of-17 for 229 and two scores - his quarterback rating would be 158.0, or three-tenths of a point shy of perfect.

So when Pitt’s quarterbacks throw to El Barto, they have a near-perfect NFL quarterback rating.

I don’t think I’m reading too much into that, because it pretty much spells it out.

Bartholomew has caught 82.4% of the passes thrown to him, by far the highest catch rate of any player on Pitt’s roster (at least among those who have seen like three or more targets) and it ranks No. 6 among Power Five tight ends who have at least 15 targets this season. The five guys with higher catch rates are, quite literally, some of the best tight ends in the game right now:

PSU’s Brenton Strange, Dalton Kincaid from Utah, Oronde Gadsden from Syracuse and Jake Briningstool from Clemson among them.

El Barto has every bit the potential those guys have; he’s just not seeing the ball enough. When he has been targeted - 17 times in six games - he has turned those targets into two touchdowns and six more first downs, a first down/touchdown-to-target ratio that trails only Jared Wayne among Pitt’s receivers and tight ends.

It just makes too much sense, and I really think it could help break some things loose for this offense if Bartholomew gets more involved. He’s currently averaging 9.3 yards after the catch per reception; that’s the second-highest average among Power Five tight ends with at least 15 targets this season (continuing our theme, PSU’s Strange is No. 1 at 9.6).

So let’s add this all up: you’ve got a tight end who is one of the best in the country at catching passes and one of the best in the country at getting yards after the catch. He’s sure-handed and reliable and can make plays.

What am I missing here?

More importantly, what is Pitt missing here? This seems like an obvious one to me for a passing game that needs a boost.

A midseason transfer
Pitt had some roster movement this week. Senior left tackle Carter Warren is out for the season; Pat Narduzzi announced that one on Monday. But later in the day, sophomore receiver Jaden Bradley announced that he’s leaving for the greener pastures of the transfer portal.

The move was a bit of a surprise (unless you read some of the rumors on the message board late last week and over the weekend), and while the departure was probably more of a mutual decision than a singular choice, the impact of Bradley's removal from the roster is more interesting to me than the backstory (although I would say that I don’t think the offensive scheme ranks very high on the factors behind this).

So what is the impact of losing Bradley?

For starters, it takes one of Pitt’s bigger receivers off the roster. Bradley was 6’4”, which puts him at the top of the list of scholarship receivers in terms of height, and while he wasn’t always consistent in catching passes, he seemed to be trending in the right direction. In the last two games, he was targeted 14 times - more than he was targeted in all of 2021 - and caught seven passes for 110 yards and two touchdowns.

The two scores came in the loss to Georgia Tech, but they showed some of the potential he seemed to possess.

Of course, that recent surge in opportunity and usage (he played 104 snaps in the last two games) makes his decision to transfer now, after six games and at the end of an off week, all the more curious, but again, that’s a different discussion.

As it relates to the rest of Pitt’s season, Bradley’s departure cuts not just the height of the receiver room but the numbers overall. The Panthers now have eight scholarship receivers on the roster, including redshirt junior Gavin Thomson, who went on scholarship this summer; redshirt freshman Myles Alston, who has played seven snaps this season; and true freshmen Addison Copeland and Che Nwabuko, who have not seen the field and appear to be headed for redshirts.

So if we set those four aside - and I’m not sure we can set them aside entirely - Pitt has four scholarship receivers to use in the final six games: Jared Wayne, Konata Mumpfield, Bub Means and Jaylon Barden.

Mumpfield is Pitt’s leading receiver. Wayne has played like a No. 1 at times this season. Means has played a lot but produced little. And Barden can’t seem to buy a snap on offense.

Like I said, the numbers are a problem. But the truth is, the numbers were always going to be a problem for the 2022 roster, even with Jordan Addison still around. That’s why the coaches added Mumpfield and Means in the offseason; they knew they needed to boost the size of the receiver room overall.

They probably felt okay about where things stood with that group. But then Addison left, and the numbers - not to mention the talent - took a big hit. Removing Bradley has taken the numbers down even more.

Now the recruiting class of 2023, which was going to be a big one due to the roster situation, seems like it might be a little small, despite having four commitments from receivers.

How did the numbers get so low for this season? Attrition, mostly. Pitt signed nine receiver recruits in the classes of 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021; only five of those nine were projected to be on the roster for 2022, and that included Addison. Take him and Bradley out, and it’s down to three remaining recruits - Wayne, Barden and Alston.

Having three receiver recruits from the last four classes is a recipe for a thin position. Shoot, having five from four classes is thin. So that’s the problem, and Pitt’s going to have to live with it for the next six-plus games.

Anybody up for two-back sets?

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

How are the transfers doing? Since we’re on the topic of transfers, I thought it might be a good time to check on the players who’ve left Pitt in the last 12 months (give or take) as transfers.

How have those guys been doing? Let’s run down the list:

WR Jordan Addison (USC) - Addison has picked up where he left off after transferring from Pitt to USC, where is is the Trojans’ leader in receptions (39), receiving yards (585) and receiving touchdowns (7). Yeah, he’s still one of the best receivers in college football.

LB Cam Bright (Washington) - Bright has been one of Washington’s defensive leaders, starting all seven games and posting 38 total tackles (second-most on the team), 2.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks and one interception. He is also a team captain for the Huskies.

LB Wendell Davis (Northwestern) - Davis hasn’t been as successful at his new home as Addison and Bright have been. He has played in just one game at Northwestern, logging three snaps and making one tackle in a loss at Penn State, and while he has been dealing with an injury, he has been healthy for most games this season.

QB Davis Beville (Oklahoma) - Beville has played in five games for the Sooners and started their 49-0 loss to Texas two weeks ago. He has completed 15-of-30 passes for 102 yards, no touchdowns and one interception.

WR Shocky Jacques-Louis (Akron) - Jacques-Louis has excelled in his move to the MAC. He has started every game for Akron this season and has caught 42 passes for 567 yards and two touchdowns, leading the Zips in receptions and receiving yards while posting three 100-yard games.

RB A.J. Davis (James Madison/Florida A&M) - Davis entered the transfer portal midseason last fall to preserve his redshirt for an opportunity to play in 2022, and he committed to James Madison as a transfer in November. But he went back into the portal and committed to Florida A&M in July. He has appeared in four of the Rattlers’ seven games this season and has recorded 24 carries for 70 yards and no touchdowns, although he does have a receiving touchdown among his five receptions.

RB Todd Sibley (Albany) - After years of toiling as a backup at Pitt, Sibley is shining at Albany. He is the Great Danes’ leading rusher with 642 yards and eight touchdowns on 102 attempts in six games. Sibley has topped 100 yards in four of six games this season, including a 188-yard effort - on just 18 carries - against Central Connecticut State.

LB Leslie Smith (Southern Illinois) - Smith, who now goes by Dune Smith, has played in all seven games for Southern Illinois and has seven tackles, one tackle for loss and one sack this season.

LB A.J. Roberts (Stony Brook) - Roberts has played in four games this season, recording three tackles and 0.5 tackles for loss.

DB Hunter Sellers (New Mexico) - Sellers has played in one game for New Mexico.

DL Noah Palmer (Duquesne) - Palmer stayed in Pittsburgh after his transfer and has been active, making one start among his six games played and recording eight tackles, two tackles for loss and one sack for the Dukes.

DL Naquan Brown (Norfolk State) - Brown announced that he was transferring to Norfolk State, but he does not currently appear on the team’s roster.

OL Michael Statham (Charlotte) - Statham transferred to Charlotte but has not played this season.

LB Preston Lavant (Chattanooga) - Lavant appeared to transfer to Chattanooga over the summer, but he does not currently appear on the team’s roster.

DE Emmanuel Belgrave (Tennessee-Martin) - Belgrave entered the transfer portal after spring camp and chose Tennessee-Martin in June over other FCS offers. He has played in four games this season but has not recorded any statistics.

QB Joey Yellen (Hawaii) - Yellen has played in four games and made three starts this season, completing 40-of-87 passes (45.9%) for 324 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions in that span. He went 1-2 in his starts at Hawaii, with last start coming in the Warriors’ 24-14 win over Duquesne in mid-September; he went 13-of-20 for 86 yards and an interception in that game. Sophomore Brayden Schager has since taken over the starting job.

Overall, there's no question that Addison is a huge loss. We knew that would be the case from the time he transferred last spring, and the season so far has only further proven the point.

Bright would probably help this defense, too, and while Wendell Davis hasn't done much at Northwestern, he would be in the rotation at Pitt; having one or both of those guys back probably would have resulted in the coaches not pursuing Shayne Simon or Tylar Wiltz (one or both of them).

Otherwise, I'm not sure most of the players who left would be contributing at Pitt this season.

How much impact have injuries had?
Randy Bates said something interesting this week.

During the Pitt defensive coordinator’s session with the media on Tuesday - his first since he spoke to us three days before the West Virginia game, but that’s a rant for another day - I asked him how the defense has lived up to his expectations through the first six games. Here was his reply:

“Well, I think we’ve been inconsistent. That’s the way I’d put it. I think the fact that we’ve had well over half of our defense in the top 22 out for at least half of a game creates that a little bit. I’m excited that we’re going to be close to full-speed, if not full-speed, this weekend. And because of that, I think we’re starting to get used to playing together with the people who play together. That’s the hard thing when you have a lot of different people rolling in. But we’re hopefully back to pretty close.”

Ignoring the weird syntax of a few of those sentences, I thought that was an interesting sentiment. I know we’ve talked at various points about injuries, particularly on the offensive line, but what about the defense? Has Pitt really been missing half of its two-deep at various points this season?

Let’s go to the numbers. Habakkuk Baldonado, Dayon Hayes and Deslin Alexandre all missed games due to injury. Brandon George and Marquis Williams have as well. That’s five.

I will include Rashad Battle and Nate Temple; those two were on the two-deep before suffering season-ending injuries. That puts us at seven. Are there four more? SirVocea Dennis missed the second half of the Virginia Tech game and Tyler Bentley only played six snaps against Rhode Island; those were spread throughout the game, but I think he was limited for that one, which puts the count at nine.

Perhaps the other two were down-the-depth-chart guys who weren’t available in a given week. But setting the accuracy of Bates’ claim aside, his larger point still stands:

Pitt has had a bunch of guys miss games due to injury this season. Baldonado, Alexandre, Hayes, Danielson, George, Williams and Battle were all expected to play a lot, and they all have missed whole games. So have Rodney Hammond, Kedon Slovis, Nick Patti, Owen Drexel, Carter Warren, Gabe Houy, Karter Johnson, Jared Wayne and Konata Mumpfield.

That’s a lot of key guys. 16 by my count - all starters or top reserves who missed at least one whole game, and in a bunch of cases, they missed more than one.

What’s the impact of those injuries? It’s tougher to say in some cases than others, but it’s obviously less than ideal to have that many guys out when the season is barely half over.

ONE PREDICTION

Mumpfield will have a breakout game
I talked about this earlier in the week, and I’m coming back to it for my prediction at the end of the week.

I think Konata Mumpfield breaks through for his biggest game yet at Pitt this weekend when the Panthers go to Louisville.

So far, Mumpfield has been just okay. I know we’re all down on Pitt’s passing game and it feels like there’s not much redeeming in that facet of the team aside from Jared Wayne and Gavin Bartholomew, but when I was looking at Mumpfield’s stats from the first half of the season, something interesting jumped out.

In five games this season - he didn’t play against Virginia Tech - Mumpfield has caught 25 passes for 260 yards and a touchdown. After his first five games at Akron last season, he had caught 22 passes for 244 yards and four touchdowns.

Very, very similar stat lines. A few more catches for a few more yards this season, and a few more touchdowns last season. I don’t mean to dismiss the touchdowns, since that’s a huge element of production, but a lot of it goes to opportunity.

Still, the overall production is really interesting to me. His five-game stats this season don’t seem like much, but his five-game stats last season led to a Freshman All-America campaign.

More specifically, those five games led to what we’re talking about: a breakout game.

In Akron’s sixth game last season, the Zips went to Bowling Green and Mumpfield caught six passes for 106 yards and two touchdowns. He had another big game a week later with 10 receptions for 109 yards at Miami (Oh.) and he added another 100-yard game in November when he caught 11 for 122 and two more touchdowns at Western Michigan.

Now, Mumpfield was building up to that breakout game at Bowling Green, having caught a touchdown in each of the previous four games and topping 60 receiving yards in the previous three. He isn’t quite on that kind of run at Pitt (although he did catch seven passes for 75 yards - both season highs - against Georgia Tech). Louisville also hasn’t been the friendliest defense for opposing receivers. Only two players have gone over 100 receiving yards against the Cardinals this season: Florida State receiver Johnny Wilson had seven catches for 149 yards and two touchdowns in the Seminoles’ win at Louisville in Week Three, and Boston College receiver Zay Flowers caught five for 151 and two scores in the Eagles’ home win over the Cardinals.

But while the individual performances haven’t popped and only one team has thrown for more than 300 yards against Louisville, the Cardinals still rank No. 9 in the ACC in passing yards allowed per game and No. 12 in the conference in opponent pass efficiency. So there could be opportunities.

I think Mumpfield finds an opportunity this week. I’m sure there was a focus on the passing game during the off week, and I think Mumpfield is the guy who benefits. I still believe he can be a No. 1 wide receiver in the ACC; the biggest thing that’s been missing is a big breakout game.

I’ll predict he gets it this week.

(Assuming he plays, since Pat Narduzzi said Thursday that Mumpfield will be a game-time decision.)