The 3-2-1 Column: Awards, bowl games, opponents and more
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In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about bowl games, awards, ranking the Atlantic teams and a lot more.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
The horse has arrived
Something occurred to me this week.
As I was preparing this column and getting ready for the Panther-Lair Show and writing other content and doing all of those things that we do throughout the week, I realized that I wasn’t quite as inclined to drop an all-too-familiar disclaimer.
“Not to get ahead of ourselves…”
You know that one. You’ve probably seen me use it. You’ve probably used it yourself. And you’ve probably responded to someone else with some version of it.
It’s understandable. After Pitt started winning a few ACC games and various online rankings started pointing to the Panthers as a potential favorite in the Coastal and the conference, maybe even with an outside shot at the playoffs, people started dreaming big.
But almost every comment came with that disclaimer:
“Not to get ahead of ourselves…”
I did it, too. Earlier this week, I wrote an article about Pitt’s bowl possibilities with quotes from Gary Stokan, the CEO of the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. I actually interviewed Gary last week, but I waited to publish the article until after Pitt had clinched the Coastal because, well, not to get ahead of ourselves.
And that caveat was applied to everything from Pitt’s potential outcomes to the major-award candidacies of players like Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison. We talked about those things, but always with that preface.
We didn’t want to put the proverbial cart before the proverbial horse, even if our comments had no impact on anything that would actually happen.
But then it occurred to me this week.
We don’t have to worry about putting the cart before the horse because the horse has already arrived and it’s pulling a cart full of accomplishments.
It’s pulling a Coastal Division championship. It’s pulling a nine-win regular season with a shot at 10. It’s pulling Kenny Pickett as a finalist for the Maxwell Award and Jordan Addison as a finalist for the Biletnikoff Trophy.
So many of the things we didn’t want to assume would happen…they’ve happened.
It’s not a small sample size anymore. It’s not the first half of the season. It’s not too early to talk about this or talk about that.
There’s one regular-season game to go and Pitt has booked its flight to Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game. Pickett and Addison are legit. And while these Panthers have a few more things to accomplish, they’ve already laid quite the groundwork for the season.
We’re not getting ahead of ourselves anymore.
Award season
It’s hardware time, and Pitt is showing up on more than a few lists.
Actually, the Panthers are doing more than just showing up. They’re making the final cut.
Of course, I’m talking about Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison. This week, Pickett was announced as a finalist for the Maxwell Award and the Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award, and Addison was announced as a finalist for the Biletnikoff Trophy.
You already know what the Biletnikoff is; that’s the nation’s top receiver, and Larry Fitzgerald and Antonio Bryant both won it during their time at Pitt. On Pickett’s side, the Maxwell goes to the nation’s most outstanding player and the O’Brien is for the top quarterback.
All of these awards are considered major national awards, and if they’re not quite the Heisman Trophy (the finalists for that one get announced Dec. 6), they’re close.
By making the cut as finalists, Pickett and Addison are already in rarified air. But can they close the deal? Let’s compare.
For the Davey O’Brien, Pickett is up against Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Alabama’s Bryce Young. Two big-time names from two big-time programs. But guess what? Pickett has out-produced both of them. Pickett is in the top five nationally in total offense, passing touchdowns, total passing yards, passing yards per game and total points responsibility; Stroud and Young cannot make that claim.
Young is also one of the finalists for the Maxwell Award; the other is Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III. Walker has had a great season - until this past week when he had 25 yards on six carries in a blowout loss to Ohio State - but I think it’s tough to say he has made a bigger impact on his team than Pickett has made on his.
As for Addison, his competition for the Biletnikoff is Purdue’s David Bell and Alabama’s Jameson Williams. By the numbers, I don’t think there’s any comparison. Addison has more catches than Williams and more yards than Bell, and he’s got more touchdowns than each of them (actually, he has nearly as many touchdown receptions as those two combined).
I know it’s not just about numbers, but the fact is, all three of those guys have incredible film and are great players, so then it has to be about the numbers, at least to some extent. And the numbers favor Addison, who has scored more touchdowns than any receiver in the country.
Since this isn’t the prediction section of the column, I’m not going to sit here and proclaim that Pickett and Addison will sweep those awards. But I’ll certainly say that you can make a very, very good case for both of them.
The approach in Syracuse
This is more of a question than a “thing we know,” but we’re putting it here.
I wonder what Pitt’s approach is going to be for this game at Syracuse, because the Panthers have certainly been hit with injury bug.
Taysir Mack and Jaylon Barden probably won’t play the rest of this season. Nor will Jake Kradel. Melquise Stovall was in a boot on Saturday, so that seems unlikely. Gabe Houy was at least in uniform, but he didn’t play. And Keyshon Camp got three snaps on the field before leaving the game.
That’s four starters - Mack, Kradel, Houy and Camp - who missed the Virginia game plus two top reserves. Throw in Owen Drexel and Kenny Pickett, among others, getting hurt during the win over the Cavaliers and you’ve got a team that’s banged up. Granted, it’s the final week of the regular season; nobody is totally healthy. But guys like Houy and Camp and Drexel and (obviously) Pickett are going to be of high importance for the ACC Championship Game, so it’s only natural to wonder if Pitt should rest some of them this week.
It would be nice if this game could be a blowout, a three-touchdown lead at halftime with Syracuse’s offense totally stifled to the point where Pitt feels comfortable resting Pickett for the second half and riding the running game into the sunset (or whatever passes for sunsets in Syracuse; I’ve covered seven games there and never seen the sun once).
Unfortunately, that’s not what history indicates. Narduzzi has faced Syracuse six times; four of those six were one-score games, and of the two that weren’t, one was the 76-61 game at Heinz Field in 2016 and the other was the 21-10 Pitt win at home last season.
Neither was a blowout, and the games have been even closer at the Dome. Pitt hasn’t beaten Syracuse by more than one score on the road since the Panthers’ 45-14 victory in 2010.
Look at the scores in games at Syracuse since then:
2012 - 14-13 loss
2013 - 17-16 win
2015 - 23-20 win
2017 - 27-24 loss
2019 - 27-20 win
Five one-score games, two of which have gone for losses.
There’s a very real possibility that this season’s game, even with Pitt at its highest point in years and Syracuse having sunk slowly into the muck and the mire, could look like the last few. Which would mean that the absence of a key player or two as a near-healthy scratch could be the difference.
On one hand, it doesn’t matter. Pitt has the Coastal Division title and a spot in the ACC Championship Game locked up. Nothing that happens on Saturday can change that.
On the other hand, there’s something to be gained tomorrow in the great air conditioner of the Finger Lakes. Pitt can achieve its first 10-win regular season in 40 years with a win over Syracuse; that’s nothing to sneeze at. And a victory over the Orange can set the table for, potentially, a 12-win season. Not to mention the impact this winning streak can have on Pitt’s rankings.
There’s something to play for, even if it’s less tangible than last week’s goal.
So I think Pitt goes with as close to a full arsenal as it can on Saturday. And like I said, maybe the Panthers can get a comfortable lead and give guys like Pickett a rest in the second half.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
Who do you want?
Pitt’s spot in the ACC Championship Game is locked up, but what about the other side? Three teams are still vying for the Atlantic Division, and each has its strengths and weaknesses. So if you’re Pitt, who would you want to face?
Let’s look at the possibilities.
Wake Forest - The Deacons play at Boston College in a noon kickoff on Saturday, and they have the most direct path to Charlotte: Win and they’re in. They should be able to pull that off, since Boston College is 2-5 in conference play with Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech standing as the only teams the Eagles have been able to beat. Boston College has scored less than 20 in five of its seven ACC games and was held to 23 in its home loss to Florida State last weekend. That’s not going to be enough points to hang with Wake Forest, because when it comes to the Deacons, scoring is the name of the game.
Dave Clawson’s group started 8-0 before losing a barn-burner non-conference game at North Carolina, and after bouncing back with a win over N.C. State, Wake fell at Clemson last weekend. That game saw the Deacons post their lowest point total of the season - 27 - but they scored at least 35 in each of their first 10 games and topped 40 in seven of them. Of course, Wake has also allowed at least 30 in five of its eight games against ACC teams this season and ranks No. 93 nationally in scoring defense.
N.C. State - The Wolfpack have the first ACC game of the weekend when they host North Carolina tonight. If they beat the Tar Heels and Wake Forest loses tomorrow, N.C. State will clinch the Atlantic Division. The first ACC team to beat Clemson this season - Pitt was the second - N.C. State only has two blemishes on its conference record: a 31-30 loss at Miami and a 45-42 loss at Wake Forest. While that gives Wake Forest a head-to-head advantage over the Wolfpack, Dave Doeren’s team would emerge from a three-way tie - N.C. State, Wake Forest and Clemson would all be 6-2 if N.C. State wins and Wake Forest loses - so the key first step is beating UNC tonight.
Of the three teams competing for the Atlantic, N.C. State is the most balanced. The Wolfpack average 33 points per game on offense (No. 33 nationally) and allow 18.7 points per game on defense (No. 13 nationally). And in a conference loaded with quarterbacks, Devin Leary is low-key one of the best: he has thrown for 3,186 yards, 31 touchdowns and five interceptions this season, putting him just behind the likes of Pickett and Hartman and Armstrong - but not by much.
Clemson - The Tigers are down but not out, overcoming a punchless offense to put up a solid 8-3 overall record and a 6-2 mark in the ACC. They’ll be scoreboard-watching this weekend, since they close the regular season in a non-conference rivalry game against South Carolina with their fates entirely reliant on the outcomes of the Wake Forest-Boston College and N.C. State-North Carolina games.
Clemson’s game is all about defense. The Tigers rank No. 8 nationally in points allowed (16.4) and the 27 points they gave up to Pitt back in October is tied for the most they have allowed all season (incidentally, the other teams to score 27 on Clemson this year are in this conversation, too - N.C. State beat Clemson 27-21 and Wake Forest scored 27 in a loss to the Tigers last weekend).
Clemson’s offense seems to be rounding into form, though, having put up at least 30 points in each of the last four games and topping 40 in the last two. There is context to those stats, of course; the last two games were against UConn and Wake Forest, and if Wake’s defense is not good, UConn’s is even worse.
So who do you want to see if you’re Pitt? I am leaning slightly to Wake Forest. Pitt got past Clemson once this season, although the Panthers got a bonus touchdown from a pick-six on an intercepted shovel pass, and I’m not sure they would want another challenge from the Tigers’ defense. N.C. State scares me for the balance the Wolfpack have, and while the possibility of Pitt breaking its N.C. State curse with a win in the ACC Championship Game would be quite poetic, I think Leary is a really dangerous quarterback.
Wake Forest, though, would likely provide little resistance defensively. The Deacons can score and would certainly do so against Pitt’s defense, but if it were up to me, I would probably take my chances with the Panthers in a shootout. A Pitt-Wake Forest ACC Championship Game would probably look like the Pitt-Virginia game, and I think the Panthers would be able to succeed again in that setting.
When will things get better for Pitt hoops?
Man, that feels bleak.
But I’m pretty sure everyone is asking that question - and asking it in a variety of contexts.
In the context of this season, it’s not easy to find an answer. This year’s Pitt roster, at least in terms of the roster that takes the court every night, is pretty limited offensively. There are a few good pieces, but the overall collection of players just can’t score very effectively.
That means they have to be really, really good defensively and, just as importantly, they have to be really, really committed to playing defense, and that hasn’t been the case through five games.
I was encouraged by Nate Santos hitting 4-of-8 from three against Towson, but he followed that by hitting 1-of-8 from deep against Vanderbilt, which was obviously less than encouraging.
I came into the season thinking Femi Odukale would be Pitt’s top scorer, and he’s second on the team by a point, but when you’re the only threat of any kind of attack from the back court, it’s not too tough to defend. And Odukale’s lack of outside shooting (only six attempts all season) plus his struggles from the free throw line (despite Wednesday night’s 7-of-7) have created some holes in his game.
John Hugley got a blazing start to the season - 57 points in three games - but he has scored eight points in the last two games, including an 0-of-6 showing against Vanderbilt.
There’s not a lot to count on from Pitt’s offense, and that’s obviously going to make the rest of this season just as challenging as the first five games have been. The Panthers are averaging less than 60 points per game; you don’t need me to tell you that kind of production isn’t going to lead to a lot of wins.
But then there’s the big picture, the context of the program under Jeff Capel. This season is part of that context, since it’s Year Four for Capel; he has built this roster that is struggling on a nightly basis to top 60.
There’s something to be said for circumstances. Three of the best players Capel has recruited have transferred before their eligibility ended and the best player of the Capel era left early for the NBA. Throw in the season-ending injury to Nike Sibande and legal issues for Ithiel Horton, and this season’s roster, which was already going to be hurting for offense, got even more punchless.
That’s six players who could possibly be on the 2021-22 roster - six players who would certainly make the roster better - but aren’t, for a variety of reasons.
Now, I’m not going to pretend to be naive enough to ignore the realities of college basketball. Transfers are inevitable. So are players leaving early for the NBA. And injuries happen. These things are part of the sport, and the head coach’s job is to build a roster that can sustain a few of those instances.
Having them all converge on a single season is a bit more challenging, and this season is shaping up to show just how challenging it can be.
This is not to absolve Capel of anything. It’s his job to build the roster and, perhaps more relevantly, it’s his job to manage the roster. The final record, of course, will be his and his alone. And when judgment is passed on his performance this season and over the last four seasons, he’s not likely to get much favor for having some bad luck (at times).
In the very immediate present, it’s just a discouraging time for Pitt hoops. This season’s team feels like it will win a few more non-conference games in low-scoring affairs before entering ACC play and facing nightly challenges that look more like Vanderbilt than Towson. I can’t say there’s a bright outlook unless these Panthers somehow become the best defensive team in the country, and even then, wins will be tough to come by.
So to answer the question of when things will get better…
I don’t know.
The best hope right now is that young players show progress and get a little better each game. There are things that less-talented teams can do to be competitive and keep themselves in games. This team has to do those things and the players have to really commit to doing those things.
That might be Capel’s biggest objective right now.
ONE PREDICTION
Pitt will be playing in the Peach Bowl
I know what I’m really predicting here.
I mean, I’m going talk about how the ACC champ is guaranteed a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl. I’m going to talk about how that’s most likely going to be the Peach Bowl. And I’m going to talk about how spending New Year’s Eve in Atlanta - Dec. 30, to be more exact - seems like a pretty nice option.
I’m going to talk about those things, but I know what I’m really predicting.
By predicting that Pitt will play in the Peach Bowl, I’m predicting that Pitt is going to win the ACC Championship Game. Because without that, the Panthers aren’t getting into a New Year’s Six bowl. They’re probably playing in Orlando or some place like that.
So yes, I’m predicting something much bigger and much more immediate. But I’m going to pretend like I’m not by simply predicting something different (even if it is predicated on that first event happening).
Like I said, I’m predicting Pitt plays in the Peach Bowl. Power Five champs are guaranteed a spot in a New Year’s Six game. The College Football Playoff selection committee places all of the teams in the New Year’s Six bowls - the bowls themselves don’t have a say in it, and they find out the bowl assignments when the rest of us do - and while games like the Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl have contractual obligations with certain conferences, the Peach and Fiesta Bowls do not.
That means the CFP committee has some leeway in how it fills those bowls. Like I said, Power Five champs are guaranteed to get placed, and the committee will typically look to take care of Power Five champs with a placement that is somewhat favorable geographically.
To me, that means the ACC champ - whoever it is - probably won’t get sent to the Fiesta Bowl in Arizona.
That leaves the Peach Bowl. Its Atlanta setting is the heart of SEC country and the venue - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - is the home of the SEC Championship Game. But Atlanta is fairly central to the ACC as well. And it’s certainly a lot closer to every team in the conference than Glendale, Arizona.
The matter of who the ACC champ gets to face in the Peach Bowl is a different topic, and that will depend considerably on what happens in the next two weeks. There are scenarios that would put a Big Ten team in the Peach Bowl (Michigan State could hang around in the top 10 or 12 and get selected). There are scenarios that would put a Big 12 team in the Peach Bowl (if neither Oklahoma State nor Baylor crack into the top four). There are scenarios that would put an SEC team in the Peach Bowl (if Alabama drops out of the top four). And there’s a scenario that would put Notre Dame in the Peach Bowl (interestingly, if Cincinnati drops out of the top four, Notre Dame might be the most likely opponent).
All of that will get settled this weekend and next. But the ACC champ is probably going to find itself in Atlanta on Dec. 30. And since I’m wrapping up this column by pretty much contradicting what I said at the start, I’m going to put the cart in front of the horse and predict Pitt will play in its first Peach Bowl.