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In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’ve got three observations, two questions and one prediction as Pitt heads into the Homecoming game against Miami.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

That’s a positive sign
As we look for things Pitt needs to improve on through the final five games of the regular season, the obvious ones jump out.

There’s the matter of second-half offense; we’ll get to that later. And penalties; we talked about that last week but the issue has persisted.

But there’s also the running game. It has been virtually nonexistent this season, averaging about 120 yards per game, which ranks outside the top 100 nationally and in the bottom quarter of the ACC. It’s a far cry from what it was last season, but a drop-off was to be expected: Pitt lost its top two backs and four of the offensive linemen who paved the way for 3,000-yard season.

We knew the ground game wouldn’t be what it was, but what we didn’t know was twofold:

How far would it fall? And who would pick up the slack?

The answer to the first was evident from the start: it fell pretty far. But the answer to the second question was up in the air - at least it was until Friday night.

I’m not one to crown anyone off of one game, but to me, junior A.J. Davis looked like he might be the guy to carry the load the rest of the way. Davis was okay but unproductive in Pitt’s first four games before sitting out the wins over Delaware and Duke due to injury. He returned in Friday night’s game and posted the first 100-yard performance of his career, rushing for 103 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries.

It wasn’t just the numbers, though; it was how Davis looked. Because in the seventh game of the season, he looked better than he has all year. The third-year back was more explosive than he has been, read the blocking better than he has, hit the hole better than he has and ran harder than he has - especially on a key three-yard run to convert third-and-2 and effectively ice the game.

Davis has actually been pretty good all the way around as an offensive player. He has 472 yards on 71 touches - 58 carries, 13 receptions - for an average of 6.65 yards per touch. That’s better than the 6.23 yards per touch that Qadree Ollison averaged last season, and while that separation comes largely from Davis being more involved in the passing game, I think that illustrates the point:

Davis can help this offense in a number of ways. He may not be a 1,000-yard rusher - although he’s averaging 4.9 yards per carry, so a healthy 200-carry season could get him close - but he can make things happen in a dependable and, at times, big-chunk fashion.

For this discussion, we’ll use the age-old definition of “big plays” as 10-yard runs or 15-yard receptions, and by that standard, Davis has 11 in five games this season (eight runs and three receptions).

That’s more than any other player on the team other than Mack, who has 13 in seven games (Davis has only played five games). Davis has more opportunities, of course, with 71 touches to Mack’s 45, but that’s inevitable with a running back.

Whether or not Davis can carry the load and support an effective rushing attack depends on a number of factors, not the least of which is the offensive line and its struggles in run-blocking. But there’s enough on film to suggest that he can contribute to this offense on the ground and through the air. That’s big for this team going forward.

There are some threats
In a good way…

I think Pitt fans have wondered about playmakers pretty much every year since Tyler Boyd graduated.

I mean, in 2016 they felt good about having James Conner back and Quadree Henderson obviously had an incredible season. But Conner left after that year and Henderson faded considerably, and since then, it’s been up in the air. Jester Weah’s 2017 wasn’t on par with his 2016 - which applies to just about everyone in the South Side - and while Maurice Ffrench and Taysir Mack showed flashes last year, it wasn’t nearly a big enough sample size to draw conclusions.

So entering this season, the many questions surrounding the passing game and the offense includes uncertainty about who could make plays.

Seven games in, I think there are some answers and they are pretty good ones, too.

There’s Ffrench and Mack, of course. They’ve combined for 101 catches, 1,033 yards and five touchdowns this season, and they’ve both got an outside shot at making history, with Ffrench on pace to threaten Larry Fitzgerald’s record of 92 receptions in a single season and Mack with a legitimate shot at the 10th 1,000-yard receiving season ever by a Pitt receiver.

Then there’s Davis, who we just talked about. Syracuse may not be the most imposing defense in the conference, but his play in the Carrier Dome was really encouraging.

And you know who else has been encouraging the last two games? Shocky Jacques-Louis. He has had nine total touches this season - five receptions, four runs - and has gained 86 yards, which works out to an average of 9.6 yards per touch. I know that nine touches over the course of seven games is nothing to write home about, but he wasn’t healthy to start the season; that much is on the record. He seems to be getting healthy now, though; seven of those nine touches have come in the last two games.

Using that “big play” stat again - 10-yard runs or 15-yard receptions - Jacques-Louis has produced four big plays on the season and three of them have come in the last two games (his fourth was a week earlier against Delaware).

Jacques-Louis has always been a big-play threat. That’s why Pitt made him a recruiting priority and got him on the field early as a freshman last season. But he has dealt with injury issues on and off over the last year; if he’s finally healthy, he makes for a really, really nice third piece to complement Ffrench and Mack.

Put those three receivers on the field together and add a pass-catching back like Davis, and you’ve now got a conundrum for the defense: Who do you cover? Where do you focus your attention? If you don’t double-cover Mack, he can win one-on-one contested catches downfield. If you give Ffrench or Jacques-Louis too much space, they can take off. If you let Davis slip into the flat, he can pick up a big chunk (he has receptions of 59, 48 and 23 yards so far this season). And if you account for all four of those guys, Pitt also has a quarterback who can tuck the ball away and take off for a run.

Oh, and I almost forgot Aaron Mathews. He’s not a starting receiver, but he is that guy who can take advantage of a defense paying attention to everyone else. He has caught 10 receptions this season and six of them have been big plays - catches of 15 yards or more.

Give Pickett just a little time in the pocket, and he’s going to find those mismatches, those instances where the defense isn’t accounting for every option in the offense. The door is open for this Pitt offense to really break out.

The second half is still a problem, but
When it comes to questions about this team, there probably isn’t a bigger one out there than Pitt’s offense in the second half of games. Everybody knows this is an issue, and the numbers bear it out: the Panthers have scored just five second-half touchdowns this season.

Five in seven games.

You don’t need me to tell you that’s bad, and it has been the reason Pitt has been in so many close games. Pitt only scored once in the second half against Delaware, and the Blue Hens held a lead in the fourth quarter. The Panthers scored two touchdowns in the second half at Duke, but they also turned it over a bunch of times and ended up needing a last-minute score to win. And they didn’t reach the end zone at all on Friday night at Syracuse, and that’s how that ended up being a one-score game at the end.

And, of course, Pitt didn’t score a single second-half touchdown in the first three games - it’s little wonder two of those three went for losses.

So we all know this is an issue, and inevitably we all want to figure out why the issue exists. There are plenty of theories, most relating to halftime adjustments. That’s this year’s buzz word: halftime adjustments.

There’s something to be said for that element. No matter the larger issues - and I think there is a larger issue - Mark Whipple and company could probably do a better job with the adjustments and game plan coming out of the locker room.

But I think there’s more to it than that. Because the reality is, there’s more to Pitt’s issues than just the second half. Simply put, the Panthers haven’t really been all that effectively consistent this season - regardless of quarter or half.

No, five second-half touchdowns in seven games is not good. It’s downright bad. But 12 first-half touchdowns in seven games isn’t much better. That’s what the offense has produced this season: 12 touchdowns before halftime. That’s less than two per game, and that’s not good enough either.

Is it as bad as the second half numbers? No. But it’s also not good enough to win. The Panthers have been held to one first-half touchdown three times this season. One was a loss (Penn State) and the other two were wins (Delaware and Duke). Get more than one touchdown in the first half at Penn State, and maybe that game goes a different way. Get more than one offensive touchdown in the first half of the Delaware or Duke games, and maybe you aren’t relying on a fourth-quarter comeback to win those two.

This isn’t to excuse the second half performances, but rather to put them in a larger context:

Maybe calling this offense a “bad second-half offense” is putting too fine a point on it; they simply haven’t been consistent enough overall.

But here’s the upside: for as bad as the second half was at Syracuse, the first half was arguably the best 30 minutes of football Pitt’s offense has produced all season. They scored three touchdowns, which is more than any other half this year, and they went 6-of-10 on third downs while Kenny Pickett threw for 189 yards and two scores and A.J. Davis ran for 73 yards and a touchdown.

That’s a positive and perhaps something to build on. And who knows? If not for one or two execution errors and a couple dropped passes, the second half could have looked very different. Those things can be cleaned up, and if they are, I think Pitt can put together a full game on offense very soon.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What’s the key on Saturday?
Turning our focus to Pitt’s next game, it’s Homecoming against Miami at Heinz Field on Saturday. The Hurricanes, as you probably know are 3-4, with one good win - at home against Virginia - stacked next to losses to Florida (no shame in that), North Carolina (that’s okay), Virginia Tech (eh…) and Georgia Tech (what?).

Brace yourself for this, because I’m sure it will shock you:

This Miami team is weird.

Weird like the 2017 Miami team went 10-0 and was ranked No. 2 before losing to Pitt in the regular-season finale. Weird like last year’s Hurricanes were 6-5 before upsetting then-No. 24 Pitt at Hard Rock Stadium in the finale.

Weird in the way that they can sandwich a good win (Virginia) between two terrible losses (Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech).

Weird in the way that can make them unpredictably dangerous - either to themselves or to others.

So what’s the key for Pitt in this game? What do the Panthers need to do to pull out a win, build their first five-game winning streak since 2009 and get to 6-2 for their best start since 2015?

Well, anytime you’re facing a team that is talented but erratic, the first step is to control the things you can control. For Pitt, that means the defense overall and the pass rush, in particular. Everyone remembers Pitt’s offense going into a black hole at Hard Rock Stadium last November, and rightfully so: the Panthers were terrible on offense, gaining just 200 yards and converting 1-of-15 third downs.

But what is often overlooked is that the defense played pretty well. The Panthers held Miami to two offensive touchdowns and 2-of-12 on third down. The Hurricanes ran the ball well but, in general, Pitt’s defense played well enough to win.

That part has to be repeated this season, at least in terms of how the Panthers have been playing in 2019. Just like they took advantage of Syracuse’s pass protection issues last Friday night in the Carrier Dome, so too do the Panthers need to exploit Miami’s weaknesses up front. The Orange are at the bottom of the ACC in sacks allowed; the Hurricanes are right ahead of them as the next-to-worst team in the conference.

Pitt’s success against Syracuse in rushing the passer needs to carry over to this week. That’s in your control if you’re the Panthers. And quite frankly, we haven’t seen many slip-ups with this defense through seven games: defensive line, linebackers, secondary - they’ve all played really well. Keep that up and give yourself a chance to win.

On offense…that’s anyone’s guess. Like I said, that first half at Syracuse was as good as the Panthers have been all season, so look to those 30 minutes for answers in what can be done better. A big part of it is execution - like simply catching the ball - but whatever the solution is, it needs to be implemented. Georgia Tech beat Miami with four touchdowns, but only two of those were on offense: the others were a fake punt and a fumble recovery in the end zone.

(Speaking of which, this week would probably be a good time for Pitt’s defense to come up with another score or two of its own, right?)

Pitt will have to try to run the ball, but my guess is, if they actually have any success doing so, it will be with tosses and counters and sweeps - things to try to get outside Miami’s defense. The Hurricanes have speed on that side of the ball, of course, but the Panthers haven’t really had success running between the tackles this season, so they need to focus on what works (or what has the best chance of working).

And then it will come down to the offensive line giving Kenny Pickett enough time to get rid of the ball. Pickett and Mark Whipple will come into this game knowing that time in the pocket will be limited, so they’re going to have to have some quick-developing plays ready to go. And while I know they probably want to be judicious with how they much Pickett runs, that’s going to have to be a part of the game plan here, either by design or on scrambles.

One last thing: Miami led Pitt 10-0 at halftime last season not because of an offensive score but because of a punt return touchdown. So I would say the Panthers’ special teams, which have been just okay this season, need to be on high alert. This could be another close game, and you can’t let it turn on a big special teams play.

Does that really matter?
One of the interesting byproducts of Pitt having a decent record is watching the polls. This happened a bit late last season and also in 2015 and 2016 - nobody had any delusions of being ranked in 2017 - and it’s happening again this year with the Panthers at 5-2.

That’s a record that compares favorably to teams that made the AP poll this week. No. 15 Texas, No. 19 Michigan, No. 20 Iowa, No. 23 Iowa State and No. 24 Arizona State are all 5-2 and in the rankings. Pitt was fourth among teams receiving votes, behind Memphis (6-1), Virginia (5-2) and San Diego State (6-1).

Then we get into all the talk of who-beat-who and who-has-played-who and who deserves to be ranked and who doesn’t and…I have to be honest:

I just don’t care.

Not right now, at least. Not with five games left to play and so much that can happen over the next month. And especially not with the College Football Playoff rankings still to be unveiled; the first set of those won’t be released until Nov. 5, and that’s the ranking that really matters. Because as we look at goals for Pitt in 2019, winning the Coastal and competing in the ACC Championship Game is up there, but on a realistic scale, there’s the Orange Bowl. Assuming Clemson goes to the College Football Playoffs, the ACC team with the highest ranking after the Tigers will go to the Orange Bowl.

That’s what I’m circling for Pitt as an official Successful Season. The Panthers would have to jump Wake Forest, who is No 25 in this week’s AP poll, and Virginia, who received 12 more votes than Pitt, in order to get there. But there’s plenty of time for that.

And that’s another key factor to me: there’s time. Plenty of time until those final CFP rankings come out, the ones that will determine who goes to the Orange Bowl and who has to fight for one of the ACC’s Tier One bowls. And between now and Dec. 8 - that’s when the final CFP rankings come out - Pitt has five regular-season games to make its case.

Win those, or at least win four of those, and the polls will take care of themselves. If Pitt beats Miami this week, the Panthers will probably crack the top 25 or be very close. Follow that with a win at Georgia Tech next week to get to 7-2 and I’d be shocked if they weren’t in all the polls - including the one that matters, since the first CFP ranking will come out after that game.

It’s all laid out for Pitt. Sure, they would have to jump Wake and Virginia, assuming the CFP folks follow the AP’s lead on ranking the ACC teams beyond Clemson. But the Panthers have a fair amount of control in that they can keep winning and take their chances on one of those other two teams losing.

That’s the goal. That’s what Pitt is shooting for. And it’s a long game, not a short one. Quite frankly, being ranked in the bottom five of the AP poll in mid-October doesn’t mean a whole lot. Does anyone remember or care where Pitt was ranked midseason in 2018 or 2015 or 2016? No. Because it doesn’t matter. What matters is where you finish. And Pitt still has plenty to shoot for there, regardless of what the AP voters think this week.

ONE PREDICTION

Looking at my scorecard on predictions this season, I’m a sparkling 2-for-8. That’s a .250 average, which would put me right in between Elias Diaz and Jacob Stallings. That’s where I’m living right now.

Regrettably, my prediction of a Habakkuk Baldonado interception in the Syracuse game didn’t come to pass. I’m thinking I might be one week ahead on that one. I was one week ahead when I predicted prior to the Penn State game that Pitt would score a touchdown outside the second quarter (they did it a week later against UCF). And I was one week ahead when I called a Paris Ford turnover before the Delaware game (he got two the next week at Duke). So maybe I was just a week early on the Baldonado interception. We’ll see.

I’ve also got my one pending prediction, which is Kenny Pickett getting to 3,000 passing yards; right now he’s averaging 267 yards per game through six games played, so if he keeps that up and Pitt plays 13 total games, he would be at 3,204 yards with 12 games played. That would rank as the third-most passing yards in a single season in Pitt history, and it would also set a new Pitt record for total offense by a junior.

But I digress. Let’s talk about this week’s prediction.

I was thinking about going for attendance. This game is a big one and Pitt is in a pretty good spot at 5-2 with plenty to play for against a winnable schedule. The Panthers haven’t drawn 50,000 for an ACC game since 2013; they did it twice that year, selling out the stadium for the season opener against Florida State in Pitt’s first game as a member of the conference and then drawing 50,049 for a November home game against North Carolina the week after upsetting Notre Dame.

But that’s it. In 25 home conference games since joining the ACC, Pitt has drawn 50,000+ just twice. The Virginia game that opened this season was fourth in attendance for ACC games at Heinz Field, with its announced crowd of 47,144 falling right behind the Georgia Tech game in 2016, which drew 47,425. The Georgia Tech game in 2014 rounds out the top five with 44,734, and last year’s Virginia Tech game is right behind it at 44,398.

For most of those games, you can pinpoint the rationale behind the crowds. The UNC game in 2013 was preceded by a big win. The Georgia Tech game in 2014 was a week after Pitt unveiled a new-look offense in a Thursday night win over Virginia Tech. The Florida State opener had obvious appeal. The GT game in 2016 was the debut of the retro uniforms. And this year’s opener was a primetime conference game in Week One.

Last year’s Virginia Tech game is an interesting comparison to this year. Pitt was coming off an impressive stretch: beating Syracuse in overtime, giving Notre Dame all it could handle, outlasting Duke at home and then beating Virginia on the road. People weren’t totally sold on the team - the Panthers were 5-4 - but things looked promising and a decent crowd showed up.

I think this week’s game could have the same appeal and bring in a pretty good crowd. Maybe upwards of 50,000.

I thought about predicting that. But sometimes I feel like attendance is low-hanging fruit, and I try to avoid it when I can.

So let’s scrap the last 350 words and get to a real prediction. Here it is:

Taysir Mack, Maurice Ffrench, Shocky Jacques-Louis and A.J. Davis will each have at least 75 all-purpose yards on Saturday.

Maybe that’s not a bold prediction; I’m not sure. Mack has topped 75 yards four times this season. Ffrench has done it six times (aided by special teams, of course). Davis has topped 75 yards in four out of the five games he has played. The wild card is Jacques-Louis; I’m predicting a pretty big step up from him if I think he’s going to get 75 yards, considering his season high is 36 yards (26 receiving, 10 rushing at Duke).

But I think it will happen. I think Jacques-Louis is on the verge of a breakout. And at least two of the other three - Ffrench, Mack and Davis - have gone over 75 yards each in every game this season. There have actually been two games when all three topped 75 yards (Penn State and UCF). And that’s two of the five games when all three played.

So that’s my prediction: four players - those guys specifically - go over 75 all-purpose yards each against Miami on Saturday. Book it.