MORE HEADLINES - The Kenny Pickett Show, Ep. 15: Ready for the biggest one yet | PODCAST: It's all on the line | Narduzzi: 'We're fired up and ready to go' | Video: Narduzzi's final press briefing of the week | In the film room: Likes and dislikes from Pitt's first win | Opponent watch: How Pitt's 2021 foes did in Week 11 | Partridge on Keyshon Camp, defending Virginia and more | Film review: A strong showing on defense vs. UNC | Film review: Pitt's hot start and second-half slowdown

In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we discuss Pitt’s final home game against Virginia coming up on Saturday. Needless to say, it’s a big one for this program. We also talk about the basketball team picking up its first win of the season. Plenty to get to this week, time to dig in to the 3-2-1 Column.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

It’s a big one at Heinz Field
You obviously know the stakes by now for the Pitt football team, but I’ll help remind you anyway in the most simple way possible: Pitt can clinch a championship on Saturday.

That’s it. Period. Nothing more to say.

The 18th ranked Pitt football team can clinch the ACC Coastal title and a berth in the ACC Championship game on December 4th by defeating Virginia on Saturday at Heinz Field. Nothing else for this team matters at this point other than winning on Saturday. There will be no scoreboard watching, just getting a winning result gives Pitt the division title.

It’s that simple.

In the context of Pitt football history, this program has not done too much of winning conference titles through the years. Pitt left the ranks of college football Independents to join the Big East in 1991. The program then bolted for the ACC in 2013 and has been there ever since. During that span Pitt had two shared Big East titles (2004, 2010) and one ACC Coastal division title (2018).

This program has not been raising a ton of conference title banners since 1991, but Saturday presents that very chance for this 2021 Pitt team.

Pitt’s last instance where it could clinch a division title was back in 2018. That game occurred on the road against Wake Forest and the Panthers already had four losses by that point. It was an accomplishment to clinch and a big moment for the players and coaches, but Saturday is creating more buzz, as it should.

Is it Cincinnati 2009 big? Close, but maybe not quite there in terms of overall stakes. Obviously that 2009 game featured a pair of top 15 teams, and Saturday will only one ranked team. So certainly a little different on that end, but it’s still a big game with a title on the line and an attractive bowl berth on the horizon. That 2009 game was for the Sugar Bowl, not a national championship. Much like this year is for a potential Peach Bowl, not the College Football Playoffs. So again, pretty close to that 2009 showdown, one Pitt lost 45-44 to the Bearcats at Heinz Field.

Virginia is a solid 6-4 team with a prolific offense. The Cavaliers own a 4-2 conference record, so a win on Saturday wouldn’t clinch the division for the Cavaliers but it would put them in control heading into the final weekend of the year. The Cavaliers have an impressive aerial attack guided by quarterback Brennan Armstrong. He has thrown for 3,557 yards and 27 touchdowns this season, but his status remains questionable due to an injury he suffered two games ago against BYU.

Virginia is a formidable team, but isn’t nearly as good as that 2009 Cincinnati team. So I’ll put this one slightly below that game in terms of historical significance and relevancy, but in the context of what is on the line for Pitt? This game presents the same big opportunity that the 2009 game did. Pitt is playing as a ranked team, at home, on national television, with a Heisman trophy candidate. I mean it’s a late November game with a chance to raise a banner. What else could you want if you are a Pitt fan?

Pickett’s last stand at Heinz Field
We know this for certain: the game Saturday is Kenny Pickett’s final one as Pitt’s quarterback at Heinz Field. We thought we were at this point before last season, but I think we all know how that turned out by now.

It has been quite a ride for Pickett, going from that skinny freshmen running a bootleg to beat No. 2 Miami in November of 2017, to entering Saturday as a Heisman hopeful and potentially going as the top quarterback in the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft. He is leading a top-20 team in his fourth year as the starter and operating one of the most prolific offenses in college football this season.

Pickett’s career wasn’t always legendary throughout his time in Pittsburgh. He would be the first to admit that. There were bumps and bruises along the way for the four-year starter, but the New Jersey kid gets to write his own ending in these next few games and it will be a season and a career that goes down as one of the all-time best for a player wearing a Pitt uniform.

He had his ups and downs in prior years, but Pickett’s 2021 season has been nothing short of brilliant in every single context. He is among the nation’s leaders in every relevant quarterback statistical category, and in turn he has been taking down Pitt’s record book week by week because of it.

Pickett already holds records for passing yards in a career (11,501) and single game (519), and the single season mark is within reach. He is chasing down Rod Rutherford’s 2003 season total (3,679) and Pickett is sitting on 3,517 passing yards through ten games.

He is eight shy of Dan Marino (79) for most touchdown passes in a career with 71 heading into Saturday. Six more touchdown passes this year would give him the single season record with 37 being the top spot right now held by Marino. It’s been a remarkable season with records still to be broken and multiple games left to play.

Saturday will be Pickett’s 25th start at Heinz Field as the Pitt quarterback. He owns a 17-7 record. Pickett is 3-0 in overtime games on his home turf, including last week's dramatic 30-23 victory over North Carolina. He has thrown winning touchdowns on several occasions (last week, 2018 Duke come to mind). Pickett has also caught a winning touchdown in the memorable ‘Pitt Special’ upset win over UCF in 2019. His run in 2019 over North Carolina in overtime also proved to be a game-winner.

Pickett plays the game with everything he has, so it’s only fitting he’s found ways to win games with his arm, legs, and hands throughout his time at Pitt. He has had upset wins, clutch wins, and comeback wins at Heinz Field. On Saturday, he can add ‘division-clinching’ win at home to his resume.

Pitt gets in the win column
Before we get too lost in Saturday’s showdown against Virginia, I do want to make note of the Pitt basketball team getting its first win of the 2021-22 season. The Panthers defeated UNC Wilmington on Tuesday night by a score of 59-51 at the Petersen Events Center.

The Panthers once again were snakebitten by turnovers (17 on Tuesday). They nearly squandered a 17 point second half lead, and only scored one basket in the final 14 minutes of the game. By all measures, it was an ugly win. Pitt head coach Jeff Capel admitted as much, but he also said that is how this team is going to have to win this season.

He’s not wrong.

Pitt’s outlook this season was not overly bright before it started, but any success the team was going to have was going to be behind the play of the guards. Well, the plan was scrapped early on due to an off-the-court arrest for Ithiel Horton and Nike Sibande tearing his ACL. Jamarius Burton also had an offseason injury, but debuted on Tuesday and it’s clear he will be a big help to this team. Pitt doubled its guard depth just by him stepping on the floor.

Pitt is 1-2 right now and face off against Towson tonight with the hope of improving to .500 on the season. The Panthers are going to have to fight and claw to win every game it can this season. I don’t think any game was going to a pushover for this team, and losing to The Citadel only reaffirmed that.

Pitt left a lot on the floor on Tuesday night, but the team did some things well that led to the win. The Panthers out-rebounded UNC Wilmington 47-33. They also held the Seahawks to under 30% shooting from the floor. The team needed a win on Tuesday and got it by doing those two things. Maybe along the way they found a blueprint on how to win future games: by winning ugly.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What seniors can come back?

Saturday will be senior day for the Pitt football team. The Panthers currently have 23 scholarship seniors on the roster, and the experience of this group has been one of the team’s biggest strengths in 2021.

As we all know, last season was played under different circumstances with the height of the COVID-19 pandemic threatening the season at every turn. The NCAA opted to give all athletes an extra year of eligibility, and that has changed the landscape of the sport to a degree. It’s the same rule that allowed Pickett to return, and a number of Panthers this year will get that same choice he made one year ago.

Here is a closer look at those 23 players and where there next stop might be, whether the NFL or back at Pitt for the 2022 season.

Cal Adomitis: The Virginia game will be the 61st straight game with Cal Adomitis as Pitt’s starting long snapper. He is out of eligibility and the Panthers will need a new long snapper for next year.

Deslin Alexandre: I think this is an interesting one. Alexandre could come back. I think an extra year may benefit and further his chances of being drafted. We’ll see what he opts to do.

Cam Bright: This could be the one big decision Pitt is waiting on for next season. With linebacker depth set to take a hit, a Cam Bright return would help shore up the position.

Keyshon Camp: This is the sixth and final year of Keyshon Camp’s career at Pitt. He’s battled through injuries from 2017 until now, but he’s expected to play his last home game on Saturday after missing the North Carolina game.

Phil Campbell: Many expected Phil Campbell to move on after last year, but he took advantage of the extra year and has had a memorable senior season because of it. Campbell has 43 tackles and four sacks in his final year at Pitt.

Kirk Christodoulou: Pitt’s starting punter has the option to return next season. He’s been the team’s primary punter since the 2018 season. It will be interesting to see if he returns or moves on from Pitt.

Owen Drexel: After serving as Jimmy Morrissey’s understudy for four years, this season represented Drexel’s first year as a starter. He is eligible to return and considering his playing time was limited prior to this year, he probably would be interested in coming back to Pitt.

Gabe Houy: After some injury riddled seasons, Gabe Houy has flourished in 2021. He is eligible to return, and likely doesn’t have the same draft profile as fellow senior tackle Carter Warren. A return to Pitt might make sense.

Shocky Jacques-Louis: This is the fourth season for Pitt WR Shocky Jacques-Louis, as he never took a redshirt back in 2018. He is eligible to return next season after playing in games in each of the past four season. Jacques-Louis has 78 career receptions for 960 yards and three touchdowns.

Lucas Krull: This is the last college season for Lucas Krull. He’s made a big impact this season after transferring Florida. Krull has 27 catches for 339 yards and six touchdowns while providing support as a blocker. He caught the game winning score last week against UNC.

Taysir Mack: Pitt wide receiver Taysir Mack’s last game at Heinz Field may have happened already. He’s been out with an injury and may not return this season. As it stands now, Mack has 138 career receptions for 2,059 yards and nine touchdowns as a member of the Pitt football program after starting college at Indiana.

Damarri Mathis: I think before he got injured last August, Damarri Mathis wanted to have a strong season in 2020 and then leave for the draft. Obviously that didn’t work out which led him to being around this season. He could come back in 2022, but I expect Mathis to try his hand at the NFL following this season.

Marcus Minor: The Maryland transfer has been a big boost to the offensive line. He’s been in college for a while and may look to move on, but he has the option to return to Pitt next season.

Johnny Petrishen: The senior linebacker is out of eligibility. He spent four seasons at Penn State before playing the last three with Pitt. Petrishen is enjoying his finest college season with 51 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, and a team-high three interceptions.

Kenny Pickett: I’m sure the Pitt coaches have tried to find another year of eligibility, but this is the final home game for Pickett.

Chase Pine: After redshirting in 2016, Pine has been a five year contributor at linebacker for Pitt. He is out of eligibility and his Pitt career ends after this season.

Todd Sibley: The Akron running back could come back to Pitt next season. His role has been limited in recent years but is still a popular player in the locker room and good on special teams.

Melquise Stovall: The Hawaii transfer is done following this season. Stovall has been a positive addition, as he’s caught 14 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown, while also handling punt return duties.

Tre Tipton: Saturday will be the last game at Heinz Field for Tipon. He is the one player that has been at Pitt as long as Pat Narduzzi. Tipton is the last link to the 2015 recruiting class that is still with the program.

Carter Warren: The Pitt starting left tackle is eligible to return next season. Warren has over 30 career starts under his belt and has had a strong senior season. He likely has a chance to be drafted in the spring, making his return unlikely.

Keldrick Wilson: The transfer from Hampton will be done after this season after providing depth on the offensive line the past two years for Pitt.

Jake Zilinskas: The former walk-on is out of eligibility after choosing to use his super senior year for this season.

That’s a recap of where things that for all of Pitt’s scholarship seniors. We may start to get clarity on these pending decision in the coming days, but for now there are a lot of uncertainties with this group for a number of talented players.

Was this season all just Pickett or is something being built?
If you do not subscribe to Panther-Lair.com and you are a Pitt fan reading this, first off, what are you doing? I say that in the sense that it’s not so much about reading the articles here on the site (but you should!), but the fact that you need to be on the Panther-Lair.com message boards. It is Pitt talk 24/7, and not just recruiting news and team information, but it’s conversations and discussion with people that like to talk about Pitt all day long.

I am plugging the message boards because you can really find good topics about Pitt. It’s a good place to hash things out, and in some cases what I talk about on the message boards can manifest itself in a 3-2-1 column just days later.

I posed a question on the boards: Is this season about Kenny Pickett entirely, or is this Pitt team/program really have something building?

I think it’s an interesting debate.

On one hand, you look at those super seniors that could return, plus the talented underclassmen, and think Pitt should be pretty good season. On the other, you look at how much Pickett means to this team and might feel a little discouraged with Pitt’s backup situation at quarterback.

I see both sides to it. A good quarterback can mask a lot of issues, and Pickett has really carried this team all season long. When the defense had bad games, Pickett would amp it up in the scoring column. When the running game struggled, he threw it even more. He has been the answer to most problems.

Pickett’s play has allowed other parts of the team to take time to grow, and he took on that responsibility. So what happens next season without him?

Can Nick Patti or Davis Beville also play at a high level? Are these young weapons on offense good players on their own, or simply benefitting from good quarterback play? Can the defense rise up and bail out the offense next season if there are struggles there?

I think they are all legitimate questions, and ones that will be asked all offseason.

I like Pitt’s core group of skilled position players like Jordan Addison, Izzy Abanikanda, Rodney Hammond, Jared Wayne, and Gavin Bartholomew. I’m encouraged by the fact that Pitt could technically return all five of its starting offensive linemen. The defense has some talent that should be back like Haba Baldonado, Calijah Kancey, Sir’Vocea Dennis, and Brandon Hill.

On paper, there’s a lot to like about the future of the Pitt football program with some depth built up at some key spots. The big question will always be quarterback play.

Was this whole season largely because of Pickett, or does Pitt have something brewing at other spots? I’m not sure this question can be answered anytime soon. If anything I’m curious and would like hear some responses: Are you more excited about the returning talent, or more fearful about what happens at quarterback next season?

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt gets it done on Saturday
Pitt is not losing on Saturday. That’s my call. I know it is not exactly going out on a ledge to pick the team favored to win by two touchdowns, but let’s face it: Pitt fans are nervous. We talked about the 2009 Cincinnati game earlier, and that and plenty of other ghosts and demons through the years have created a wary fan base.

Pitt is ranked…playing at home…on national TV…with the division on the line…with the best player on the field…and a team with over 20 seniors…the opposing quarterback might not even play...and they are a 6-4 team no less.

I think that's the scenario, and reading it over a few times - it should favor Pitt, right? But I still think there are nerves among the Pitt fan base. There is something big that can be clinched on Saturday, and everyone is wondering how Pitt will screw it up somehow.

I get it.

Sometimes when you’re beaten down on for so long you forget some perspective.

There is no boogeyman, there is no 'Pitting' curse, and Mardy Gilyard is out of eligibility (I think).

It’s two football teams lining up to play at Heinz Field on Saturday, and Pitt is the better of the two.

Stop overthinking it.