MORE HEADLINES - PODCAST: Camp storylines, balance and more | The Kenny Pickett Show, Ep. 4: Pickett's final camp, recruiting memories and standout defenders | Final year could be a big one for Keyshon Camp | Pitt's OL is excited for 2021
In this week’s 3-2-1 column, we wrap up all things training camp, and start making some predictions for the upcoming 2021 season.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
Pitt had a pretty uneventful fall camp….and that’s a good thing
August 9, 2019 - Rashad Weaver will miss the season with a torn ACL
August 8, 2020 - Jaylen Twyman opts out of the 2020 season
As we wrap up the 2021 training camp, the big thing is that there weren’t any back-breaking headlines to come out of the Pitt football program like there were the past two seasons. Nobody key is out for the season with an injury, nobody opted-out of playing this year, and none of the key players transferred. All in all, this training camp was pretty uneventful and that’s exactly what you would want as the team inches closer to the start of the season.
Pitt feels pretty good about where things stand with its personnel heading into game week starting on Monday. Can someone get hurt next week at practice or in the first game of the season? Of course. It’s football anything like that can happen at any time when you are talking about a violent and physical game. Injuries happen to every team at every level every single season. It is part of the game, and teams have to overcome those type of things all the time.
The key this year is that Pitt did not lose a very important player on the first day of camp like it has the past two seasons. It’s almost uncanny that Pitt’s most hyped defensive player for two straight seasons was out for the season before we even knew what happened. To Pitt’s credit, they have had some of its best defensive seasons in recent history despite those big losses in each of the past two seasons.
Are there injuries and bumps and bruises right now? It’s football, you know there are some, but there isn’t that devastating loss at this point like there have been the past two seasons. That’s the most important thing going right now for this team.
Pitt started camp with a senior quarterback, some exciting young offensive players, and a defense loaded with experience. The team will break camp and start game preparation the exact same way. That doesn’t always happen, but credit to Pitt’s strength and conditioning staff for keeping guys on the field, and while Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi was against limited full-padded practices during camp and was vocal about it at times, it may have played a factor in keeping his team healthy heading into the season.
It’s not just message board talk, the team believes they are deep this year as well
Some of us have a lot of time on our hands and the way to pass the time is to talk about Pitt football on the Panther-Lair.com message boards. From the end of the spring game until the start of fall camp, there isn’t a ton of action aside from a few weeks of recruiting news. So we turn to the roster and analyze it. OK let’s be real, we over-analyze it every single day.
The general consensus we came up with is: this Pitt team has a lot of guys that could see the field in 2021. After talking to Pat Narduzzi and various players and coaches throughout the past three weeks, that feeling is shared by the team, not just the fan base. Pitt has what? Four cornerbacks that can see the field. Maybe seven linebackers? An entire two-deep worth of defensive linemen? I mean the depth here is pretty evident, and I don’t think it’s just fans and media overrating the team. I think there is some substance to it.
“The more depth you have as a football team, the better off you are. I think we’ve got as much depth as we’ve ever had here and that helps.”
Pat Narduzzi dropped that line after a practice earlier this week, and I think he’s being pretty genuine about it. He made a comment earlier in camp about when he first got to Pitt, they didn’t really have a legitimate group of ACC linebackers. Pitt at times would roll with walk-ons and guys playing out of position, and we saw the results from that 2016 team - they just didn’t have the personnel on defense. Now they do.
I would like to play devil’s advocate a bit here: do they really feel good about four cornerbacks right now or are they simply having trouble identifying two starter level players? I think that’s a fair question, and we’ll know more about once the season gets rolling. Every football team feels good about their guys in August, and I think that’s generally a pretty natural thing. So I don’t necessarily think they are hiding anything, but it’s fair to question if the depth is real, or is there’s simply a lack of separation from the top to the bottom. I tend to think this team looks better on paper than it has in previous seasons and I’d say they meet the eye test as well after watching ten practices. I guess I don’t want to hype this team up to the point of being unfair, but we still do need to see it.
Things have been and will continue to be as normal as possible
You don’t really need me to tell you how weird 2020 was as a year collectively, but as someone that covers a college football team, it was different. Spring practice was halted in early March of last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and after a summer of uncertainty, the powers that be forged ahead with some weird version of a college football season.
The teams practiced at this time last year, but any media opportunities occurred over Zoom and never in-person. Even at the games last season, this Pitt team and many schools across the country played in front of nobody: no fans or family, band, or even cheerleaders. It was two teams on the field and a few people in the press box - that was all. It sucked for the entire sport and there is just no better way to put it.
2021 training camp is wrapping up across the country right now, and things were back to normal with interviews being conducted in-person. The media was actually allowed in the practice facility and as we head towards the season, there will be fans in the bleachers, media in the press box, and the sights and sounds of college football we have all come to know and love will be back each Saturday this Fall.
Of course, there might be a mask requirement here or there. Perhaps even proof of a vaccination as well. It’s a new world we’re living in, but I’ll sign up for this rather than whatever last year was. I went to one home game in 2020. No practices, no press conferences, no other games. I got to see the team once. That’s weird. I’m sure it was weird for you not going to Heinz Field to tailgate on Saturday’s as well. This sport is about rituals and tradition, and they were turned upside down a year ago.
As we know, everything can change at a moment’s notice. We’re not out of the woods yet entirely, and everyone needs to do their best to stay safe and healthy. But I’m looking forward to next Saturday and walking into Heinz Field and seeing, well, people.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
Who starts on offense?
This seems like as good of a time as any to make my depth chart predictions. I’ve seen enough of the team the past three weeks and the official depth chart will debut on Monday, so I think it’s time to make some of my own projections.
QB: Kenny Pickett - 36 career starts, fifth all-time passing leader in school history. No brainer.
RB: Israel Abanikanda - I think there was a race with Vincent Davis, but I think Izzy gets the starting role.
WR: Jordan Addison - He was Pitt’s top receiver as a freshman, and that should only continue.
WR: Taysir Mack - Mack has 111 career receptions in a Pitt uniform. I think he has a big bounce back year in 2021.
WR: Jared Wayne - I think Wayne is one of Pitt’s top three options at receiver this year. He’s a bigger guy that can make some tough catches across the middle.
TE: Lucas Krull - Krull should be the man here as long as he’s healthy, which wasn’t the case in 2020. Pitt should use a fair amount two tight end sets, so watch for freshman Gavin Bartholomew also.
LT: Carter Warren - Warren has 21 career starts at this spot, and I think he had a strong enough camp to hang onto the job.
LG: Marcus Minor - As soon as Minor transferred from Maryland, it seemed like he was destined for this opening left by the departed Bryce Hargrove.
C: Owen Drexel - Patience pays off here for Owen Drexel, who has been stuck behind Jimmy Morrissey since he got to campus in 2017.
RG: Jake Kradel - The Butler (PA) native has 15 career starts at this spot dating back to 2019. He’s the guy once again.
RT: Gabe Houy - I think there was a fight for this job, but Gabe Houy should be the team’s right tackle this year.
I think that’s your main 11 guys listed above, but there are some depth options that will push for time. I think there are two additional offensive linemen that can see time: Matt Goncalves and Blake Zubovic. Obviously there can be a lot of rotating parts at wide receiver, so guys like Shocky Jacques-Louis, Jaylon Barden, Melquise Stovall, and Tre Tipton will push. I mentioned Gavin Bartholomew at tight end, but Kyi Wright will contribute as well. Behind Abanakinada, there are a host of backs, but Vincent Davis is the top guy among that group.
Who starts on defense?
Let’s keep it going, shall we? Defense might not be as cut and dry as the offense, because this side of the ball likely has more depth and combinations.
DE: Deslin Alexandre - A regular starter in 2019 regains his top spot in his senior year. Alexandre is a team leader and is poised for a strong year.
DE: John Morgan - I think this is truly an either or situation with Habakkuk Baldonado. Both will play a ton.
DT: Calijah Kancey - Kancey may be Pitt’s next big star on the defensive line after flashing tons of potential last season.
DT: Devin Danielson - From what I saw, it looked like big Devin Danielson had a nice fall camp. I give him a slight nod here.
LB: Cam Bright - Bright has been a beast for this team the past two years, and is the main guy running Pitt’s ‘star’ linebacker position.
LB: Phil Campbell - Campbell’s return created a bit of a logjam here, and that’s a good problem to have. He’ll run the ‘money’ position.
LB: Sir’Vocea Dennis - I’m going to be a little bold here and give the middle spot to Sir’Vocea Dennis who is more of an outside guy, but this could very well be Wendell Davis also.
CB: Damarri Mathis - Mathis would have been Pitt’s top corner last season, and it sounds like he’s back up to speed for 2021.
CB: Marquis Williams - I think Williams gets the initial nod here, but MJ Devonshire is closing quickly.
S: Brandon Hill - Brandon Hill’s spot has been rather untested all of camp. He has a chance to take a big step this season.
S: Erick Hallett - I bet Erick Hallett gets the first starting job, but I do wonder if he can fend off Rashad Battle all season long.
As I noted above, there are a lot of different options on defense, it’s almost hard to keep some of them off the field for too long. I didn’t even mention guys like Keyshon Camp, David Green, or Dayon Hayes up front. Chase Pine, Johnny Petrishen, and Brandon George can all see time at linebacker. AJ Woods is another corner to keep in mind as well. The coaches feel good not just with the starting 11, but seemingly the entire two-deep.
ONE PREDICTION
My game-by-game Pitt season prediction
OK, so this isn’t just one prediction, but rather 12 of them. It seems like now is as good of a time as any to run through Pitt’s 12-game schedule and make my season picks, so you guys have a reference point to come back and tell me how wrong I was in a few months.
UMass - Win: I can’t really see Pitt losing to this team. The Minutemen are one of the worst teams in the FBS.
@Tennessee - Win: The Vols are coming off a 3-win season and have a new coaching staff and it’s just the second game of the year with that new regime. I think Pitt wins. The thought of going to Tennessee and playing on the road seems more daunting than the Vols themselves.
Western Michigan - Win: Pitt should be able to take care of business at home against a MAC team.
New Hampshire - Win: Pitt closes out September 4-0 and undefeated in non-conference play, which would mark the first time ever that has happened.
@Georgia Tech - Win: I think Georgia Tech is still in rebuild mode, and Pitt wins a third straight game in Atlanta.
@Virginia Tech - Loss: This has been a weird back-and-forth series with these programs, but the home team has fared better lately so I give the edge to the Hokies.
Clemson - Loss: The Tigers could very well be ranked No. 1 in the country by the time this meeting occurs, I don’t see a Pitt win on the horizon.
Miami - Loss: Pitt has simply never matched up well with Miami. The Hurricanes have been rather pedestrian the last 15 years, but Pitt still struggles with them.
@Duke - Win: Pitt snaps a three-game losing streak with a commanding win over Duke on the road to open the month of November.
North Carolina - Win: I don’t know if I’m totally sold on UNC outside of Sam Howell. Pitt springs a big home win to move to 7-3.
Virginia - Win: Pitt closes out its home slate with a victory over Virginia. I think this will be a slugfest of sorts, but Pitt ekes out one at home.
Syracuse - Win: Pitt takes another one from a a struggling Syracuse team to find itself with a 9-3 regular season record.
When people ask me for a record prediction, I keep saying 8-4 without doing any real research behind it. I came up with 9-3 here, but obviously the Tennessee and North Carolina games may go in different directions.
At least next week we don’t have to make predictions, and there will be real football to discuss.
Cheers to a new season.
