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In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re looking at the end of Pitt’s season, where things stand after three years with Jeff Capel, offseason needs, football and more.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
The season is over
Well, that was a pretty fitting end to the 2020-21 season for Pitt.
The loss to Miami in the first round of the ACC Tournament was cemented by disappointing, frustrating, inconsistent play.
Just like the rest of the season.
If it wasn’t one thing for Pitt in 2020-21, it was another. If the defense and rebounding were on point, the offense lagged. If the offense found its groove, the defense and rebounding let up. And it was rarely as clean as that: oftentimes otherwise strong defensive efforts were undone by poor three-point defense, or efficient and potent offensive play was screwed up by a slew of turnovers and sloppy play.
And sometimes, the Panthers just had a bad matchup, and in those cases (North Carolina, Florida State and this season-ending loss to Miami), those was exposed.
All of these things happened throughout the season and usually throughout a game. It’s why the Panthers were consistent in just one thing: their inconsistency. And it’s why they were rarely blown out in a season when they went 10-12 overall and 6-10 in the ACC.
You couldn’t rely on this team to show up on any given night. And while they managed to get through the non-conference mostly unscathed (other than the season-opening slip against St. Francis), that inconsistency left them vulnerable to such hits at “Wake Forest on the road after building a ton of momentum” and “N.C. State in any situation ever.”
Along the way, there was plenty of drama to make the season look even worse. The mid-season transfers of Xavier Johnson and Au’Diese Toney will always be part of the storyline of 2020-21, just as much as the pauses and the canceled games and empty arenas.
So, too, will be the collapse. We’ll probably all remember the scenario for awhile: 8-2 overall, 4-1 in conference play, fresh off an awe-inspiring win over Duke with a real shot to Receive Votes in the following week’s AP poll. And then…
2-10 in the last 12 games, all against conference opponents, with five of those 10 losses coming against teams that finished with a losing record in ACC games. That’s a big storyline on the season, as big as anything else that happened and clearly the most consequential because, as the old adage goes, you are what your record says you are.
And Pitt’s record says the Panthers were a 10-win team in a 22-game season. They played like a 10-win team in too many of their games, or at least during too many crucial portions of their games, and the verdict was rendered as such.
Capel’s future
Obviously the big discussion now is what Pitt will add this offseason to make 2021-22 better than 2020-21, and we’ll get to that. But first, let’s talk about Jeff Capel.
Look, there are a lot of things you can say about Capel right now. And chances are, I would probably agree with a lot of those things.
If you want to say that Capel inherited a giant mess that merits patience for a long-term rebuild, I would agree with you. If you also want to say that Capel should probably do better than 10-12 and 6-10 in Year Three of the aforementioned rebuild, well, I would agree with you on that, too.
If you want to say that the chemistry/culture issues that seem to have led to the Johnson and Toney departures are on Capel, I would agree with you, to some extent. Capel is the head coach; that puts him in charge of roster management, and when a roster has fissures like the ones that seem to have developed, then some of that falls on the head coach.
Likewise, if you want to say that a coach is never going to perfectly massage every situation to maintain a perfectly harmonious locker room and sometimes things are going to get messy, I would also agree with that, to some extent.
If you want to tell me that the second-half collapse this season was significantly concerning, both for what it meant this year and as a seeming sequel to previous February struggles, I would say that the numbers certainly back that up.
And if you want to say that the records mostly reflect the jump in level of competition and that most coaches have a better record in December than they do in February, I would say that’s valid, albeit seeming to dodge the point.
The ultimate reality, in my view, is that it’s a little bit of each of those. Yes, Capel is in the midst of a major rebuild. And yes, rebuilds like this don’t always go in a straight line forward; there are bumps and hiccups and times when things look bleak - even after seeming to move forward.
At the same time, it’s fair to expect more. Pitt was very close in a number of games this season couldn’t finish the deal. A lot of that is on the players, but not all of it. Nor are the issues in the locker room entirely the fault of the players; the coaches bear some responsibility, too.
Right now, we’re at a midpoint of the process, not the end. What this period is for Pitt hoops can’t be defined right now; its place in history will be determined by what comes after it. In a year or two, we will look back and view this season either as the adversity that served as a stepping stone to success or the front wheels of the car hanging off the cliff.
I don’t know which one it will be. Neither do you. We all have our opinions, and let’s be honest: it’s easier to bet on a program to fail. That’s the safer bet. But we don’t know. This coming season - and the offseason that leads to it - will go a long way in determining just what the Capel Era at Pitt is and will be.
Three big questions for the offseason
We’re still in the “Three Things We Know” section of the column, but let’s talk questions for a moment, because I have three of those for Pitt this offseason.
To me, the answers to these three questions will go a long way in determining Pitt’s success in 2021-22.
1. Will Justin Champagnie return?
I don’t know the answer to this, and I’m not sure if Champagnie has made a decision yet. If you put a gun to my head, I would lean toward him leaving, but you’re not putting a gun to my head so I’ll say that I can be talked into either side of it.
Regardless, there’s no uncertainty about the significance of Champagnie’s decision. It looms large for Jeff Capel as he works to assemble a roster for next season, because things look a whole lot different if you can return a guy who averaged a double-double; likewise, it looks a whole lot worse if you have to find a replacement for all of that production.
2. Will Pitt get a transfer big?
There’s no question that Pitt will be active on the transfer market. Capel has added transfers every year he has been with the Panthers, and there’s no reason to think this offseason will be any different. There are certainly a few different areas that could be addressed with experienced college players, but to me, the center position is at the top of the list.
I like Abdoul Karim Coulibaly. I think he can be a nice developmental piece over a four-year career. And I think he’ll have games over the next few seasons where he surprises and puts up a nice stat line. But Pitt needs more from the five next season - probably more than Coulibaly is likely to provide on a consistent basis.
That spot just hasn’t given much over the last few years, and the Panthers were exposed considerably in a number of games this past season. Not every team in the ACC was able to take advantage of the mismatch, but the ones that could - like Miami or Florida State or North Carolina - really killed Pitt under the basket.
3. Will John Hugley be in a Pitt uniform again?
I think this one is pretty big, too, and for me, it doesn’t contradict - or have anything to do with - the last question. Pitt needs a transfer center and the Panthers need Hugley back as a long-term option.
I thought Hugley showed some real promise in his limited stint on the roster. Technically, he’s still on the roster but under indefinite suspension while his legal issues are resolved. The fact that Pitt hasn’t kicked him off the team altogether means there’s at least some chance of him returning, and if he does - if his situation can be worked out to the satisfaction of Capel and others who are involved in the process - I think that would go a long way in creating a foundation, both for the 2021-22 season and beyond.
I think the answers to those three questions are going to have a major impact on what next season looks like. Obviously Pitt would prefer to have the answer to all three be “Yes,” but I’m guessing that’s probably not the most likely scenario.
TWO QUESTIONS
What else does Pitt need?
It goes without saying that those three questions aren’t the only questions facing Pitt this offseason. They’re not even the only personnel questions facing the team this offseason, and a transfer center certainly isn’t the only thing the roster needs this offseason. There are plenty of holes to fill, to be sure.
So what are they?
A shooter is definitely among them. On Thursday afternoon, there was rampant online discussion about the future of Ithiel Horton. Late in the week he made a number of changes to his Instagram account, which isn’t quite an official press release, but in the third decade of the 2000’s, it counts as enough to fuel speculation.
In fact, it was enough speculation to merit a response from Horton himself, who announced through Pitt’s official account that he is not going anywhere. But whether Horton is or isn’t on the roster next season doesn’t really change the fact that Pitt could use another guard who can shoot. It could be a guy like Horton, who is best as a catch-and-shoot player but doesn’t really create anything on his own, or it could be someone more like Nike Sibande, who can make something happen.
It would probably be better to have more of the latter, but with strong point guard play like Femi Odukale should provide next season, getting another shooter like Horton wouldn’t be the worst thing.
Speaking of guards, Pitt needs another point guard, too. It can be a transfer or a freshman - or, you know, maybe both - but Odukale probably isn’t going to play 40 minutes every night, so unless the staff is ready to commit to Onyebuchi Ezeakudo as the full-time backup point guard, there needs to be a new addition.
We’ve seen Pitt poking around on a few options for both guard spots - both in the transfer market and the “traditional” high school recruiting market - so clearly Capel and company are thinking the same thing. But they need to land some of those guys.
I also think they really could stand to get another young post player on the roster. Some of this will depend on what happens with a few of those questions above (“Will they get a transfer center?” and “Will John Hugley return?”) and the answers to those questions will have an impact on the need for more size.
When it comes down to it, Pitt has a lot of open spots. Even if Champagnie comes back and Hugley returns, the Panthers will have, at a minimum, five holes to fill. It’s not hard to imagine that number growing (this column is being published Friday morning, and it’s entirely possible the number of openings will be bigger by the time you read it).
So Capel and his staff have the offseason combination: holes to fill and plenty of scholarships to use on them. And that’s what we’ll be watching this offseason.
What’s up in the South Side?
I don’t know if you knew this, but the Pitt football team is about to start spring camp.
Weird, right?
In the ongoing efforts to Return to Normal, having spring camp is an important step. Barring an outbreak - which is not unheard of; both Ohio State and Duke paused football activities this week - Pitt should be able to get its full 15 practices in this spring, which is a key progression toward having something of a regular season in the fall.
So what’s up with the Panthers?
Well, there are two new assistant coaches, of course. Ryan Manalac is taking over the linebackers (I think he’s in an enviable position, as you’ll see in a minute) after Rob Harley left to be the defensive coordinator at Arkansas State, and Brennan Marion is the new receivers coach after Chris Beatty took the same job with the Los Angeles Chargers.
That’s one storyline, or two, depending on how you view it, although changes with assistant coaches doesn’t usually resonate as much as changes at the coordinator spots (recruiting implications notwithstanding).
Another big storyline, of course, is the return of Kenny Pickett. No one expected to see him in a Pitt uniform in 2021, and having him back on the team changes the whole complexion of the offense. There’s certainly a feeling of kicking the can down the road, and at some point, Pitt is going to have to break in a new starter at quarterback, but getting one more season out of Pickett is not a bad thing.
But just getting Pickett back isn’t enough, because he needs guys to take handoffs and catch passes, not to mention guys who will block for him, and that’s a much bigger question (or series of questions). Figuring out the running backs, the receivers, the tight ends and especially the offensive line - all of that looms large for Pitt’s success this season.
On defense, there are quite a few holes to fill. Both starting defensive ends are gone, as is one starting cornerback and both starting safeties.
I mean, technically, one of the starting safeties in question left at midseason and was replaced, so that replacement is back, but you know what I mean. Pitt has to find reliable starters at end, corner and safety. That’s close to half the defense, and given that those players were among the most experienced and most productive players on the unit, the task of replacing them will be considerable.
We’ll obviously spend plenty of time on all of this over the next six months (that sounds like a really long time, but I think it will go fast). Ultimately, we all know the score:
Pitt has to do something this fall. Everything between now and then will go into determining how many games the Panthers win, but there has to be some kind of improvement, some tangible success.
ONE PREDICTION
The linebackers are ascending
Last April, I ranked the position groups on Pitt’s projected 2020 football roster. Some of the picks were obvious, like putting the defensive ends at No. 1, and some generated discussion, like having the quarterbacks ahead of the defensive tackles (and that was when Jaylen Twyman was still on the team).
But one of the positions I struggled the most with was linebacker. I just didn’t know what to make of that group, or where to rank them. So I put them at No. 7, which was somewhere in the bottom half of the rankings.
This year, it’s a different story. This year, the linebackers aren’t going to be No. 7. This year, they’re not going to be in the bottom half. This year, they might rank really high on the list.
Maybe No. 1?
That seems crazy to me, but I think there are two questions that lead to that possibility.
How good are the linebackers?How good are the other positions on the team?
On the second question, I don’t know who you would really put ahead of the linebackers. Kenny Pickett makes the quarterbacks on his own, so maybe you consider them. But I don’t know if any other position group on the roster has the depth, experience, production and potential of the linebackers.
That brings us to that first question: How good are the linebackers?
I think they’re pretty good.
It starts with the top three guys - Cam Bright, Phil Campbell and SirVocea Dennis - who combined for 156 tackles, 30 tackles for loss and 13 sacks in an 11-game season last year. Dennis was Pitt’s second-leading tackler and tied for the team lead in tackles for loss. And Bright and Campbell had 4.5 sacks each, the most of any Pitt defender not named Rashad Weaver or Patrick Jones.
Then there’s Chase Pine, a sixth-year senior with starting experience. And Wendell Davis, who was the starter at middle linebacker to open the year before he suffered a season-ending knee injury. And Brandon George, who appeared in all 11 games playing a variety of positions, from special teams to middle linebacker to fullback.
Then - and here’s where I think it gets really exciting - there’s a group of second-year linebackers who have a ton of potential. Solomon DeShields, Bangally Kamara and A.J. Roberts all lettered on special teams last season. DeShields and Kamara are both outside linebackers who could very well find themselves on the two-deep as big athletes who look like they can be explosive defensive playmakers.
Throw in Aydin Henningham, who moved to linebacker from receiver last fall, and you’ve got a really strong group of young players ready to step into more playing time this season.
I really like this collection of linebackers, which looks like it could be as good a group as we’ve seen at Pitt in a long time. It really covers all the bases: experience, depth and potential. That’s a good combination.
