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The 3-2-1 Column: The path ahead, what to expect in Blacksburg and more

MORE HEADLINES - The Kenny Pickett Show - Ep. 10: Back from an off week | PODCAST: Can the offense keep rolling? | Inside the numbers: The source of Pitt's offensive success through five games | Inside the numbers: A deep dive on the defense | Video: Narduzzi's final talk before Virginia Tech | Narduzzi on VT, the off week and more | Whipple on Pickett, the OL and more | How the ACC sees the ACC: Week Six rankings

In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re thinking about the path ahead for Pitt, keys to the offense and defense and expectations for this weekend.

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THREE THINGS WE KNOW

It’s all there for Pitt
We’re all thinking it, and that’s probably pretty terrifying.

It doesn’t make it any less true, though.

You know it. I know it. Pat Narduzzi knows it. The Pitt football team knows it.

We all know that the 2021 Panthers have an opportunity to…

What do we even want to call it? I considered several terms.

“Achieve at a high level.”

“Reach tangible success.”

“Win a lot.”

“Accomplish something.”

Any of those will do. But they all mean the same thing: they all mean that the path for Pitt, right now, is paved with opportunity. Remarkable opportunity. Opportunity to have actual, real success on a significant level.

So that’s exciting. And kind of scary.

We’ve all had close to two weeks to think about it, and there are a few reasons to come to the conclusion that the Panthers have a real shot here.

There’s the rest of the ACC, where Wake Forest leads the league with an undefeated record, Clemson looks mortal and preseason darling North Carolina already has three conference losses.

And then there’s Pitt itself, a surprising offensive juggernaut who has been more explosive than any Pitt team in recent - or not so recent - memory and looks capable of dropping a lot of points on just about anyone.

We’ll talk about the offense more in a minute, but with the way the Panthers are scoring and the caliber of opponent they’ll face over the next seven games…I mean, it’s all right there for Pitt.

None of the Panthers’ next seven opponents is ranked. None of those seven teams has less than two losses. This week’s opponent, Virginia Tech, is the only team Pitt will face that is undefeated in conference play; Clemson and Miami have one ACC loss each and the other four teams have two or more.

Of course, the Panthers are not without their blemishes. The Western Michigan loss isn’t going away; no matter what Pitt does this season, that game will always linger. And there are still some questions about whether the Panthers’ defense can win a game if an opponent slows down Kenny Pickett and his crew on offense.

I’m as curious about those questions as you are, and how the defense responds in those situations will go a long way toward determining this season’s success. But we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.

For now, we can sit back and let our minds wander. Or maybe it’s wonder, because I’m wondering just what this team can accomplish.

Forget the College Football Playoffs and all of that; that’s a bridge too far for me, at least right now. But the Coastal Division and the ACC are very much in play, and in a way that they haven’t been in a long time.

It’s exciting. And a bit scary. If nothing else, it will be interesting. I think we annually say that Pitt should be able to compete for the division and possibly the conference in most years.

Well, here it is.

The one team that did it
Origin story time.

I moved to Pittsburgh to start my freshman year at Pitt in 1997. I grew up in northeastern/central Pennsylvania - Bloomsburg, to be exact - and out there, it’s all Penn State or Notre Dame. Pitt was the other school in the state, at least in terms of football, but the campus life made picking Pitt a no-brainer for me.

Once I got to town, my interest in Pitt football began. So I would say I started following the team in 1997, which means all of the things before 1997 - the 1976 championship or the dominance of the Sherrill years or even the misery of Majors II - they all predate me and don’t really fit into my history with the program.

I have roughly 24 years of experience with this program, and I bring this up as context, because I was thinking this week about Pitt teams that have taken advantage of an opportunity that presented itself. How many Pitt teams have had a path laid before them and went out and seized it?

In that 24-year period, there aren’t many.

In fact, there is only one that I can think of, only one Pitt team that had a clear, direct, control-your-own-destiny opportunity and actually made it happen.

It’s the 2018 team.

Now, there are two honorable mentions, in my view: 1997 and 2004. The 1997 team was 4-5 with two games remaining before it beat Virginia Tech and won at West Virginia to get bowl-eligible for the first time since 1989. And the 2004 team won the Big East and went to the Fiesta Bowl.

But we all know the caveats there: the 1997 team was only playing for a bowl, which was a big deal in 1997 but not that significant overall, and the 2004 team did win the Big East but had to survive a four-way tie and rely on Syracuse winning at Boston College to earn its date with Utah.

The 2018 team, at least in terms of its accomplishments, doesn’t come with any such caveats. Yes, you can talk about going 7-7 or losing to Penn State 51-6 or the three-game losing streak to end the season. But when opportunity was presented to that team, when a clear and direct path to the Coastal championship was laid out, those Panthers capitalized.

They started their run with an overtime win against Syracuse and then had a non-conference trip to Notre Dame that resulted in a loss but instilled some confidence. After winning a shootout against Duke, Pitt got its first make-or-break game: a Friday night trip to Virginia to face the ranked Cavaliers.

The Panthers won that one and then came home and beat Virginia Tech by 30, setting up the penultimate game of the regular season as a championship-clinching opportunity.

I’m not going to waste your time, because you know what happened. Pitt went to Wake Forest and won.

Two months earlier, those Panthers got thumped at Central Florida in the final game of September. But they came home, licked their wounds and started a five-game winning streak against ACC teams. Week after week, the opportunity presented itself, and week after week, they stepped up.

We all wrestle with our views on that season. It’s hard to celebrate a 7-7 team that played like they did against Penn State, North Carolina and UCF. But I don’t think you can totally ignore the fact that the team took advantage of the situation that was presented to it.

For as much as we talk about Pitt falling short of expectations or failing to step up to an opportunity, that team deserves some credit.

The pick-and-choose offense
A funny thing happened in the second half at Georgia Tech.

Pitt, with its No. 1 offense and it’s 52 points per game and its Kenny Pickett and its Jordan Addison, with its computer metrics and its explosive plays, with all of its nice things that get all of the nice tweets, that offense that people can’t get enough of…scored 10 points.

Just 10 points.

This after dropping 42 on the Yellow Jackets in the first 30 minutes.

What happened? Did Georgia Tech figure Pitt out? Did the Yellow Jackets shut down the most productive offense in the nation? Does the GT staff have some sort of kryptonite for this offense?

I don’t know what Geoff Collins is hiding under that sleeveless windbreaker, but I don’t think Georgia Tech solved anything with Pitt’s offense. Actually, what I think happened in the second half in Atlanta is something that should possibly give Pitt fans even more confidence.

The Panthers dictated. They decided that the second half would be determined by ball possession, so they milked the clock, kept Georgia Tech’s offense on the sideline and bled the game out.

Look at Pitt’s second-half drives:

1. 11 plays, 77 yards, 4:49, touchdown
2. 3 plays, -1 yard, 1;23, punt
3. 12 plays, 60 yards, 4:56, field goal
4. 11 plays, 76 yards, 8:03, end of game

If my math is correct, that adds up to 19 minutes and 11 seconds of possession. When you have a team down by 28 at halftime and you only let them hold the ball for about 10 minutes in the second half, you have a pretty good chance at winning.

Now, I know that fans don’t like it when coaches take their collective foot off the gas. You want to stay aggressive. You want to keep scoring. If you can hang 70 or 80 on somebody, do it.

I get that. And to some extent, I agree. But by out-possessing Georgia Tech essentially 2-to-1 in the second half, the offense did a whole lot to keep the Yellow Jackets at arm’s length. And it really does feel like a conscious decision the Pitt offense made - and executed.

Looking at those second-half drives, even the three-and-out took more than 80 seconds off the clock; three of Pitt’s five touchdown drives in the first half took less time than that, and only one of the first-half scoring drives took longer than three minutes.

Given the first half/second half splits on how long the drives took, it sure gives the impression that the Panthers can pretty much pick and choose what they want to do and when they want to do it.

Or, at least, they were able to do that in Atlanta two weeks ago. But if they can build on that, if that method of controlling the game can continue and be sustained, I think this team will be very difficult to beat.

I’ll say for the record that I don’t think Pitt is going to do that against every team on the remaining schedule. Clemson will present a bigger challenge and Virginia Tech might, too. But I think the Panthers should be able to exert some control against most of the other defenses they’ll face.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Which improvement is most important?
So what has led to all Pitt’s offensive success?

Pickett is playing like a stud, of course. Addison is the best receiver Pitt has had since Tyler Boyd, and he has already topped Boyd’s career high for touchdown catches in a season. And Lucas Krull is pushing himself into the conversation of Pitt’s best tight end in the 21st century (Dorin Dickerson caught 10 touchdown passes in 2009; Krull have five in five games so far).

On top of that, Pitt’s offensive line seems to be improving weekly and the running game appears to be coming along with it.

Those elements have all come together to produce what is, through five games in six weeks, the No. 1 scoring offense in the nation.

I’ll tell you what else stands out to me. It’s something I’ve talked about in previous years because it was a big issue in previous years. But it’s not an issue this year; it’s a strength, and it’s maybe the single most important big-picture improvement the offense has made in 2021.

It’s the red zone.

Simply put, Pitt has arguably the best red zone offense in the country.

First things first: forget the NCAA’s official stats. Among that organization’s greatest blunders, in my view, is how they rank red zone scoring. They do it by total scores - both field goals and touchdowns - and rank according to the scoring percentage. How often does a team get points when it gets inside the 20? According to the NCAA, that’s the best red zone offense in the nation.

Except we all know the problem there, because it equates field goals with touchdowns. If a team gets into the red zone 100 times and scores 90 field goals, they’re going to rank higher than a team that gets into the red zone 100 times and scores 89 touchdowns. But which offense is better? You know the answer.

So we have to develop our own stat-keeping. And after some calculations, Pitt’s offense, which ranks No. 32 nationally in the NCAA’s version of red zone scoring, comes in as one of the best in the country at scoring touchdowns from the red zone.

To wit, the Panthers have 25 touchdowns on 31 trips inside the 20. That’s a red zone touchdown percentage of 80.6 - good for No. 4 nationally and No. 1 in the ACC. Nobody in the country has scored more touchdowns from the red zone than Pitt, even though a lot of teams have played one more game than the Panthers.

Compare that to last season, when Pitt ranked No. 90 nationally in red zone touchdown percentage, scoring touchdowns on just 57% of its trips inside the 20.

Now, a lot goes into the improvement in the red zone. All of those personnel things I mentioned, from Pickett and Addison and Krull (four of his five touchdowns have been in the red zone) to the running game (all 14 of Pitt’s rushing touchdowns have been in the red zone) to the offensive line and the various other weapons the Panthers have.

Regardless of the origin, the result is the same: one of the biggest problems for Pitt’s offense in the past was scoring red zone. This year, they have not just improved; they’ve been one of the best.

What about the defense?
Alright, we’ve spent enough time on the offense. Personally, I would rather use all six sections of this column to talk about Pitt’s offense because, to be honest, that’s more fun and the numbers are a lot more interesting.

The Panthers’ defense, on the other hand…

You know as well as I do that side of the ball is the weaker side of the team, and when they lose again, it will likely be a result of the defense not being able to get a stop and the offense stumbling one or two times too many to make up for the defense.

That happened in the Western Michigan game. Do you know how many times Pat Narduzzi’s Pitt teams have lost when they scored 40 or more? Once. That WMU loss was the first one. The Panthers scored 41 and it wasn’t enough because the defense, like the California Highway Patrol on that fateful day in June 1994, couldn’t stop a Bronco.

There’s a theme that has developed with Pitt’s defense in recent years, though. They’ve always been good against the run, but the pass rush has really come along since 2018 or so. Last year was the high-water mark, with Patrick Jones and Rashad Weaver combining to be arguably the most effective defensive end duo in the nation.

But there was always a feeling that this defense, for all of its success at getting after the quarterback, had to get sacks because if it didn’t, then the opponent was likely to hit a long pass.

There was a certain feast-or-famine characteristic to Pitt’s defense. It wasn’t 100%, but it was close enough to feel real.

I’m getting that sense again this season. The Panthers are top-10 in the nation in sacks per game, but their pass defense ranks No. 78 (No. 9 in the ACC). It’s reductive to say they either get sacks or give up a big pass but…well, that’s one conclusion you could draw.

At Georgia Tech, Jeff Sims dropped back 37 times, according to Pro Football Focus. He was under pressure on 12 of those 37 drop-backs (Pitt got two sacks), and when he was under pressure, Sims completed 5-of-8 (62.5%) for 43 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

On the 25 drop-backs when Sims wasn’t under pressure? 19-of-25 (76%), 316 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

(It’s worth noting that PFF recorded Pitt blitzing on both of the plays that resulted in Sims’ interceptions and not blitzing on the two plays that resulted in touchdowns.)

I know: quarterbacks are going to have a better chance of success when they’re not under pressure. That’s common sense. But Sims wasn’t just better when Pitt failed to get pressure; he was borderline outstanding.

On those 25 plays where the pressure didn’t get to Sims, he averaged 12.6 yards per attempt - that’s better than any quarterback with at least 160 drop-backs is averaging this season. He threw for 359 yards; his career high prior to that game was 277. He also set a new career record for completions with 24, despite not setting a career high in attempts.

Jeff Sims had a career day against Pitt, and the vast majority of the production - 316 of his 359 yards - came when the Panthers failed to get pressure.

Now, there were a few things Pitt did well at Georgia Tech and has done well all season. The Panthers had two sacks, 15 pressures and 10 tackles for loss, and they allowed the Yellow Jackets to convert just 2-of-11 third-down attempts and 1-of-4 fourth-down attempts.

These are the keys to Pitt’s defense. Turn QB pressures into turnovers. Make plays in the backfield. And stop the opponent on third and fourth down.

Do just enough of that to offset the big plays you’re going to give up - and we should all just accept that the big plays are going to come - and you should be able to keep the opponent from consistently driving the field.

It will be nerve-wracking to watch, and fans will probably find themselves cursing a few members of the defensive staff every game. But if Pitt’s success continues in getting sacks, tackles for loss and third-down stops (the Panthers rank No. 6 nationally and No. 2 in the ACC in third-down defense), then it should be good enough.

ONE PREDICTION

This is going to be a wild one
I don’t know if “wild” is the right word, but I’m playing the odds here, and if recent history is any indication, Pitt’s game at Virginia Tech on Saturday is going to have something extra to it.

Let’s review the Narduzzi Era vs. the Hokies, shall we?

2015: Honestly, there wasn’t a lot to remark on from this one, aside from the fact that Hurricane Joaquin was dumping all kinds of weather on Blacksburg. But Pitt won, and that was one of the early feathers in Narduzzi’s cap.

2016: Now it’s getting interesting. This was the push-off game, where Brian O’Neill scoring on an end-around was overshadowed by Jerod Evans (who?) throwing for more than 100 yards each to Bucky Hodges, Isaiah Ford and Cam Phillips.

None of those guys amounted to much in the pros, but they led a passing attack that put up 406 yards against Pitt, which led Narduzzi to claim the Hokies were committing offensive pass interference on basically every play, which led to a reprimand and fine for the second-year head coach.

2017: This was the one at the 1. There weren’t any offensive fireworks from Virginia Tech in this one; Hokies quarterback Josh Jackson had just one touchdown pass - the same amount as Pitt punter Ryan Winslow, who connected with long-snapper/tight end Nathan Bossory for a trick-play score.

But these were all footnotes to what defined this game, right? On fourth-and-4, trailing 20-14 with one minute left in the game, Jester Weah caught a pass and streaked down the sideline 74 yards. The problem was, the play started at the 25, and Weah was caught at the 1. I don’t have to remind you what happened over the next 59 seconds.

The notable item here is that this game was truly the beginning of the Kenny Pickett era. He replaced Ben DiNucci at the start of the second quarter and never looked back.

2018: This was the big rushing day. While Pitt got one of its touchdowns on a 78-yard pass to Maurice Ffrench, it was Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall who won this one, rushing for a combined 421 yards and four touchdowns in a 30-point blowout that still stands as one of Pitt’s biggest margins of victory in an ACC game.

2019: This was the ugly one. Pitt’s last trip to Blacksburg saw the Panthers show up with a 7-3 overall record, a two-game winning streak and a 4-2 mark in conference play. The result was one of Pitt’s worse losses in an ACC game since joining the conference, as the Hokies struck on back-to-back plays in the first quarter and the Panthers never showed any signs of life in a rainy mess where the play on the field - at least from the visitors - was worse than the miserable weather.

2020: I don’t know if we give Pitt enough credit for this game, but over time, I think we’ll look back at this as the one where the Panthers were missing a bunch of guys due to COVID and weren’t expected to do much but instead pounded Virginia Tech by 33. With all the absences, things looked bleak for the Panthers, but they scored first and never let up. Pickett threw for 404 yards and two touchdowns, D.J. Turner - with Jordan Addison on the sidelines - caught 15 passes for 184 yards and Pitt showed some considerable resiliency.

Of course, this doesn’t even get into the years prior to Narduzzi’s arrival, like 2014 when Pitt used an off week to retool its offense and beat Virginia Tech, or any of the early 2000’s games.

Whatever you want to say about the state of these two programs, it’s tough to claim that any of their recent games - or any of their games this century - have been boring.

I see no reason to expect anything different on Saturday.

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