In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about Pat Narduzzi and the hot seat, Jeff Capel's new contract, following Pitt players in the pros and a lot more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Narduzzi’s seat isn’t hot

We should probably wait until at least the week before training camp to talk about the hot seat and whether Pat Narduzzi is on it this season. There’s no specific impetus for bringing it up right now, but it has been a semi-regular discussion point since the offseason started, so now seems like as good a time as any to talk about it.

2024 does feel like a monumental season for Pat Narduzzi. Quite possibly the most important season of his career, at least in terms of what it could mean for his future with the Panthers.

But I’ll say this: I don’t believe Narduzzi is entering the 2024 season on the hot seat. Some national pundits and some fans - a lot of fans - will say that Narduzzi is on the hot seat, but I think the national guys look for coaches coming off bad seasons and the fans are willing to put the coach on a hot seat after every game (or every half, or every quarter, or every possession or maybe even every play).

From my view, Narduzzi is not on the hot seat. And I say that for a few reasons.

One is that I think “the hot seat” means a coach will get fired if he doesn’t engineer a turnaround in the upcoming season. Barring some epic disaster that would probably require failures and embarrassments off the field as well as on it, I don’t see Narduzzi getting fired this offseason. He has done well enough - the ACC trophy and the two pieces of Coastal hardware can buy a whole lot of latitude - to earn the right to bounce back from a down year or two.

Plus, and this is not unimportant, Narduzzi’s contract runs through 2030. We saw Pitt decline to buy out Jeff Capel two years ago due to the remaining years on his deal; if anything, the financial situation now is such that there’s even less of a stomach for paying someone to go away.

Pitt simply can’t burn money like that. It’s better to keep the cash and hope for a turnaround than drop eight figures to make one coach leave and another eight figures on a new coach while you are scrambling to find the money to survive in the new environment of college sports.

Is Narduzzi perfect? No. Has he done the best job possible? No. Has he done well enough? Yes. And is it conceivable that he will find success again? Yes.

Look, last year was an epic failure on many fronts, not the least of which the head coach’s decision-making. It may have been Frank Cignetti’s call to pursue, acquire and stick with Phil Jurkovec, but the head coach has the ultimate accountability, and 2023’s cliff dive goes on him as much as it goes on Cignetti - if not more.

But last year didn’t put Narduzzi on the hot seat. It was a disappointment to follow the 20 wins and top-25 rankings of 2021 and 2022 with a 3-9 season, but that 3-9 season also doesn’t overshadow the 20 wins and back-to-back ranked finishes.

Those things happened and they count for quite a bit.

They count for enough to earn Narduzzi a chance to bounce back. Which shouldn’t be too difficult, since three wins is an awfully low bar to clear.

No, this isn’t Narduzzi’s Hot Seat Year (HSY).

It’s the Year Before The Hot Seat Year (YBTHSY).

But only if things go awry again.

Personally, I don’t think they will go awry again. But if they do, if Pitt has a win total under six again, then we can start having those conversations.

Even then, though, I wonder how hot that seat will be. The contract is the contract and the buyout is the buyout. If Pitt wants a coach to go away with four years left, it’s going to cost them. Probably more than they want to pay (and more than they should pay).

So if you’re looking for a hot seat in the South Side…well, I don’t know where to tell you to look. Because I don’t think it’s on Pitt’s side of the building.

Following the pros

I made a decision for my family this summer.

I decided that we will become Washington Wizards fans.

I never had a favorite NBA team. Growing up in northeastern/central Pennsylvania, there’s no good or obvious option when it comes to pro sports. Where we lived, we weren’t really close enough to Philly or New York City to be in the natural gravitational pull of those teams; most people just picked the Phillies or the Yankees, and some sad sacks even claimed the Mets.

Mostly, though, your favorite pro sports team was probably whoever was good. So yes, there were Eagles fans in my town, but there were also a lot of Steelers fans and Cowboys fans and even 49ers fans (my grandfather, for instance) because those were the teams with success in that era.

I forget which NBA teams I gravitated to in those days. Probably the Bulls or the Celtics or the Lakers because of Michael, Bird and Magic, of course. But I don’t think I ever felt all that strongly about it.

Now, though, we are Wizards fans. And it’s probably pretty obvious why that’s the case.

It’s Bub Carrington. He’s the reason to follow the Wizards. There was never a reason to claim an NBA team before, but now there’s a bit of a connection, and that seems like as good a reason as any.

Really, I just think it will be fun to pick an NBA team and follow them. Even a woeful squad like the Wizards can be fun in its own tortured way, particularly when there’s a personal interest in Carrington’s success, which is really the gateway for this.

I think that’s one fun part of following/covering college sports: it creates a bunch of mini-connections to pro teams.

No, I’m not all that interested in the Minnesota Vikings (outside of potential fantasy sports connections). But Brian O’Neill is there and Patrick Jones is there and Jordan Addison is there (I do have him on my fantasy team), so while I might not be rooting for the Vikings, I’m interested in keeping an eye on them.

Ditto the Buffalo Bills or the Tennessee Titans or the New York Jets or any of the other places where Pitt players have ended up in recent years.

Even the Philadelphia Eagles, for their notable acquisition this offseason, but more on that in a minute.

I think it’s especially fun when you follow/cover recruiting like we do here on this site. I always point this out: for a lot of people, the knowledge in and awareness of players starts when they get on the field and make an impact in college.

For us, though, we’ve known about these kids since they were sophomores or juniors in high school (sometimes freshmen, even). We’ve followed their recruitments and their high school careers, we’ve heard their stories and we know who they are before they get to campus.

Fast forward a few years to the point where those guys are going to the pros, and you’re looking at six or seven or even eight years of knowing about them.

That’s a long history, and a successful move to the NFL - or, in this case, the NBA - feels like a big next step in a story we’ve been following for years.

So I think there’s a little something extra, a bit more connection than the average fan would have. And I think it makes it even more fun to see those players move on to the next level, where we can continue following them.

That’s why I’m excited to be a Wizards fan now. My expectations are low, but it will be fun to have a favorite NBA team, and I have Bub Carrington to thank for that.

The other way

There’s a flip side to that whole thing, though.

Because while the presence of a former Pitt player can draw interest - and even fandom, in the case of my Wizards - in a pro team, it can go the other way if things go sour between the player and the pro team.

See also: Pickett, Kenny and the Steelers, Pittsburgh.

I haven’t said or written too much about Kenny Pickett’s rather unseemly separation from the Steelers, mostly because it was a Steelers story, not a Pitt story. But since we’re talking about Pitt guys in the pros and how that draws a certain amount of our attention, this might be an appropriate time.

Of course, I don’t know how things actually went down between Pickett and the Steelers. I know what I’ve read and I know what I’ve heard. I know what people who are pretty close to the situation have said. And I have my own personal thoughts on Pickett, based on who he was during his five years at Pitt.

That’s probably an important place to start: I obviously have a connection here, since we did a weekly show with Kenny throughout his brilliant final season at Pitt and got to know him fairly well as a result.

So yes, we’re coming into it with some personal bias. But setting that aside, I can’t help but feel like he got a raw deal from the Steelers.

Look, I know all the guys on Twitter with all-22 film have Zaprudered Pickett’s passes to show how there was a window when his fourth option on a play was open for 1.5 seconds and the fact that he didn’t see it is a clear indication of how bad he is.

I’m exaggerating a bit - although not all that much - but I will concede that Pickett had his struggles. What I can’t get past, though, is some of the circumstances around his time with the Steelers.

There’s the offensive line; that was an issue, but every quarterback has to deal with challenges up front from time to time, and good quarterbacks are expected to overcome those challenges.

The offensive coordinator, on the other hand, is supposed to be an asset for the quarterback, not a hindrance, and I don’t think there’s a Steeler fan alive who would say that Matt Canada was an asset.

Remember - and I don’t think this can be stated enough - the Steelers fired Canada midseason. They never do that. Never. Midseason firings are the mark of an unstable, unsteady, irrational franchise, and the Steelers have steadfastly refused to make that kind of rash move.

So imagine how bad things must have been to get Canada dropped in November like he was. And throw in the fact that Pickett played pretty much the best regular-season ball of his career in the immediate aftermath of that firing. It sure seems like 1+1 equals 2 here, doesn’t it? And it sure seems like Pickett did well enough sans-Canada to earn the right to come back into the starting job after returned from injury a few weeks later, doesn’t it?

But that’s not actually the point. This isn’t about the Steelers telling Pickett he would get the starting job back, only to renege on that. It isn’t about the Steelers telling Pickett he would get a chance to compete with Russell Wilson after Wilson was added this offseason, only to renege on that as well. It’s not about those things, because I can’t say I know those things for certain - it’s only what I’ve heard.

No, the way my opinion about the Steelers changed as a result of Kenny Pickett was what happened after Pickett was dumped to Philly.

It was the smear campaign, which was, in my view, unseemly and unbecoming of a franchise that is supposed to be a model organization.

It didn’t take long after the Pickett trade before “sources” started offering background on the situation - background that invariably painted Pickett in a bad light.

Mind you, those “sources” didn’t seem to have anything to offer to the local press ahead of Canada’s firing or Wilson’s signing or even Pickett’s trade. The “sources” were silent on those stories.

But when it came time to paint a certain picture, the “sources” were loud and clear. “Sources” do that sometimes if there’s a preferred narrative, and the preferred narrative in this case was unmistakable:

Pickett acted like a petulant child who expected to have the starting job handed to him and would ultimately be a distraction to the team.

Maybe that’s true and maybe it’s not. It doesn’t really jive with the Pickett we got to know at Pitt, so it seems a bit suspicious. But whether it’s true or not, I just don’t care for the Steelers seemingly going out of their way to paint that picture.

To me, it says more about the organization than it does the player.

And if it was any other player, it would be a different story. But that connection we talked about - the connection to not just a college player but a player we’ve followed since high school - well, that makes the whole thing feel a certain kind of way.

I don’t know about you, but I’ve got a different view on the Steelers as a result of this.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Is this a no-name defense?

Earlier this week, I talked about breakout candidates for Pitt this season on a few episodes of the Morning Pitt. I listed five pretty obvious guys on offense - Nate Yarnell, Gavin Bartholomew, Daejon Reynolds, Kenny Johnson and Terrence Moore - but when I got to the defensive side of the ball, I realized that there was a weird paradox:

Pitt’s defense doesn’t have any obvious candidates for a breakout season because it feels like the entire defense is poised for a breakout season.

Which is another way of saying, this group doesn’t have a ton of experience or career production.

Really, safety is probably the only exception here; at pretty much every other position on the defense, Pitt is going to be breaking in a new starter.

I mean, sure, Kyle Louis started two games last season. So did Bam Brima. Jordan Bass started one. But that’s more or less it.

Every defensive tackle who started a game last season is gone. Everyone cornerback who started a game last season is gone. The linebackers who started every game other than the three starts Louis and Bass recorded are gone. And most of the starts at defensive end are gone.

Pitt returns starters at literally two positions on defense, and they’re both safety spots.

(There’s a bit of grey area here with regards to Nate Temple; he was announced as having suffered a season-ending injury in the spring, but I don’t think the book is entirely closed on that one. If he actually plays, he would be another returning starter. But we’ll have to see if that happens).

So while you and I and anybody else who follows the program closely have high hopes for the linebackers and think the recruiting has been pretty good at cornerback, the reality is, there’s a whole bunch of new, unproven and largely inexperienced players who will be stepping in there.

Brandon George? Zero career starts. Bass, Louis, Braylan Lovelace and Rasheem Biles? Three starts and less than 500 career snaps combined.

The four returning vets at cornerback? Rashad Battle, Noah Biglow, Tamarion Crumpley and Ryland Gandy have combined to play less than 400 snaps in their careers and less than 70 last year.

The defensive line? There’s no point in adding up those numbers, because I don’t need to tell you that those guys haven’t played much in their careers.

But they’ll play this year. And they’ll play a lot.

They have to. There’s nobody else. Dayon Hayes and Deandre Jules and Sam Okunlola and the trio of defensive tackles who are probably in their 30’s by now are all gone. Those guys ate up a ton of snaps, and new players will have to replace them.

If ever there was a no-name defense, it would be this one. Which is a little funny to say given that Phil Steele and Athlon both included a Pitt defender in their preseason All-ACC first-team selections.

But while those preview mags like Donovan McMillon - understandably - there’s a pretty considerable drop-off in terms of notoriety and name-recognition after that.

There aren’t a lot of household names on this defense.

Not yet, at least.

Why extend Capel now?

The biggest news of the week came Wednesday when Pitt did a 5 o’clock news dump on the announcement that Jeff Capel had signed a three-year contract extension.

That new deal will keep Capel with the Panthers through the 2029-30 season, and while I think you could make a case that the contract probably didn’t need to get extended until next offseason, when Capel had two years left on his deal, I also think it makes some sense to do it now.

Yes, I’ve seen the negative responses to this announcement, which have largely centered on the fact that Capel has only made one NCAA Tournament in his six years at Pitt.

Setting aside the fact that levying that complaint ignores the situation Capel inherited (not to mention the detour in the rebuild caused by the pandemic), I understand those concerns. You would like to think a coach you’re committing to for more than a decade would have more success than one out of every six years.

But I believe this contract extension is more of a bet on the future than a reward for the past. And I think that bet has some solid data informing it.

For starters, there’s the success of the last two seasons. Two years ago was Pitt’s most successful season in nearly a decade, and while the Panthers fell short of an NCAA Tournament bid this past season, their exclusion became a national rallying cry for the shortcomings of the NCAA Tournament selection committee.

Capel has won 97 games at Pitt, and 46 of those came in the last two seasons. The question is, can he sustain that success? Ultimately, that’s what Pitt is betting on with this extension, so let’s look at that.

I think there has been a considerable improvement in recruiting over the last two years. Capel has signed eight four-star recruits since he became head coach of the Panthers, and four of those eight have been in the last two classes.

Plus, and possibly even more importantly, he has shown a real knack for winning in the transfer portal. Prior to this offseason, Capel brought in eight players from the portal, and that group includes some of the most important and impactful players to put on a Pitt uniform this decade.

Jamarius Burton. Nelly Cummings. Blake Hinson. Greg Elliott. Ishmael Leggett. Zack Austin. They were all big pieces of the puzzle the last two seasons, and while Mo Gueye’s team went 11-21, he was still a really good addition.

So you’ve got improvement in the on-court success, improvement in recruiting and a strong showing in perhaps the most crucial element of talent acquisition - the transfer portal.

That all seems to be pointing in the right direction.

And there’s one more thing about this contract extension - one more thought that makes the timing make sense.

If Capel has the kind of year he should have this coming season - which is to say, if he wins 20+ games again and finishes near the top of the ACC again and makes the NCAA Tournament again and wins in the postseason again - if Capel does all of that, which he should, then there’s probably a decent chance another school with an open job might give him a call.

And if all of that happens, then an interested school would be looking at hiring Capel out of a contract with five years remaining as opposed to the two years that would have been left on his original contract.

With this contract extension, Pitt has made the prospect of buying Capel out a bit more cost-prohibitive for a would-be suitor.

Am I getting ahead of myself in projecting not just success in this coming season but a level of success that would make Capel attractive to other schools? Yes, I am. Quite a bit, in fact.

But if Pitt believes in that scenario unfolding, then extending his contract now - before that next level of success comes - should keep them out of a bidding war.

The extension shows that Heather Lyke believes Capel will get it done. Given the way things have trended in the last two years, I am inclined to agree.

ONE PREDICTION

The hype is going to keep growing

This is less of a prediction and more of an opportunity to talk a little more about Pitt hoops.

Because earlier this week, members of Alliance 412 got to see the current Pitt team play a scrimmage against the alums of the Zoo Crew, and there were some rave reviews.

In particular, newcomers Brandin Cummings and Amsal Delalic put on a show.

If you’re going to build hype for a team, there are a few key components. Success in the previous season is a good place to start. Key returning players - that’s important, too. And then you need the promise of newcomers.

There’s a certain excitement in the unseen, and now that Cummings and Delalic are a bit more seen, well, the hype is only growing.

It’s growing for those guys and it’s growing for the team overall.

This is one thing that stood out to me the day that Capel’s extension was announced. While the response on the message boards was largely positive, there was some loud feedback on social media, and it wasn’t all kind.

In fact, a decent number of Pitt fans felt the extension was premature and largely without merit.

We can debate whether Pitt should have given Capel an extension right now and whether he has done enough in the last two years to outweigh the previous four. But what really surprised me was that I was generally under the impression that this program has some good mojo right now.

Between the general success of last season, the return of Jaland Lowe, the additions of Cummings and Delalic as recruits and Cam Corhen and Damian Dunn as transfers plus positive early returns on Bub Carrington’s NBA career, there seemed to be a lot of good vibes around Pitt hoops. Even the disappointment of missing the NCAA Tournament was offset, at least a little, by an overwhelming national consensus that the Panthers got screwed when they were left out.

The naysayers about Capel’s contract extension aside, I think those good vibes are still present.

In fact, I would go so far as to say that there’s more hype now than there was a year ago at this time. A year ago, there was some excitement about Carrington and Lowe, but there were also a whole lot of questions after the departures of Nelly Cummings and Jamarius Burton.

It took Capel a long time to get to the success of the Cummings/Burton team; would that year be a flash in the pan or would it be the start of something bigger?

Turns out, it was the latter. Carrington and Lowe were stars. Blake Hinson settled into a role as a team leader. And the culture that was established two years ago persisted into last season.

Now, Lowe is back, the transfers look like great fits for what Pitt needed and those freshmen - Cummings and Delalic - seem really, really promising.

That has created a lot of hype. And barring some negative news (which we know Pitt has had plenty of in the past), I think the hype is going to keep growing.

So I guess this is less of a prediction and more of a way of saying, there’s some good vibes around this program right now.