The 3-2-1 Column: Surprising stars, WR leaders, hoops transfers and more
In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about Pitt's history of two-star recruits who turned into all-stars, the production question at receiver, hoops transfers and more.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
The most surprising star
A couple weeks ago, somebody decided to dredge up a thread from four or five years ago.
Quick caveat: it’s never really a good idea to do that, but sometimes the results are interesting.
In this particular instance, someone found the thread of reactions to SirVocea Dennis committing to Pitt in February 2019.
The response was tepid, at best.
Some of the highlights among the feedback from Pitt fans:
Yay. No-star. C’mon Duzz.
He should have committed to Syracuse, they can take no stars. We’re the better football program.
I’d say this is an example of Pitt’s recruiting not being good enough.
Wow. This is very concerning. Another underwhelming prospect.
No offense to the kid. But if rivals starts deducting points to team rankings for reaches, we may end up in the negatives.
I miss the good ole days where we complained about taking 3 stars that had Mac offers.
That’s what Pitt fans thought of taking a commitment from Dennis.
To be fair, I understand the reaction. Dennis had been committed to Air Force before jumping on board with Pitt, and he chose the Panthers over offers from Dartmouth, Elon, Fordham, Holy Cross, Lafayette, Lehigh, UMass, Rhode Island, Richmond and Western Michigan.
You’re probably not going to beat your chest about winning recruiting battles against that competition. So I get it.
Of course, we all know how that turned out. Dennis was a great player at Pitt, a key piece of the 2021 ACC Championship team and now a fifth-round Draft pick.
I don’t bring up all of this - the fan reactions and the ultimate outcome - to make fun of anyone who doubted Dennis. For every two-star like him who turned out to be really good (and there have been quite a few, as you’ll see in a minute), there are probably three or four who didn’t turn out to be contributors.
Still, after looking at all 112 two-star prospects Pitt has signed since the recruiting class of 2002 - that’s the starting point of the Rivals database - I have to say, Dennis might have been the biggest surprise. To go from his offer sheet and recruiting situation to a leading role on an ACC Championship team and an NFL Draft pick…there aren’t many other guys you will find like that.
Rashad Weaver and Patrick Jones have a case to make. They were both two-star prospects who ended up as All-Americans and Draft picks. At the same time, I would say Weaver and Jones are more examples of misses in the rankings game than they are guys who outperformed their recruitments.
Weaver, as you’ll recall, had been a Michigan commitment until late in the process and had other Power Five opportunities (he went straight from his Pitt official visit to an official visit at Penn State). Jones had offers from Cal, Duke, Illinois, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest.
I think we just mis-rated those guys.
Jason Hendricks is one that fits as a surprise two-star recruit. We rated him as a two-star running back recruit in the class of 2009; he was a Jeff Hafley find out of New Jersey who picked the Panthers over two Michigan’s - Central and Eastern - as well as James Madison, Syracuse and Temple.
He ended up starting 37 games over four seasons after a redshirt, played for three different coaching staffs (four, if we include Mike Haywood) and piled up 253 tackles and eight interceptions. He was Pitt’s leading tackler in 2012 and 2013 and earned all-conference honors - one in the Big East, one in the ACC - both of those seasons.
Pretty impressive.
To me, it comes down to Dennis and Hendricks for the title of the biggest two-star surprise. I’ll you make the call on who you prefer.
The two-star All-Stars
I’m stealing this from yesterday’s episode of the Morning Pitt, which I guess is like stealing from myself, so it’s not really stealing at all.
But after digging through the Rivals database for two-star recruits who have signed with Pitt over the years, I found that you could actually build a pretty good team from those guys.
Like I mentioned earlier, since the class of 2002, Pitt has signed 112 recruits who were ranked two-stars or less. Plenty of those guys didn’t do much with the Panthers, but quite a few of them did.
In fact, I think you can build a pretty strong 11-man offense and 11-man defense just out of two-star recruits.
Check it out:
QB - Luke Getsy
RB - Isaac Bennett
WR - Greg Lee, Devin Street, Derek Kinder
TE - Darrell Strong
OL - Jordan Gibbs, CJ Davis, Ryan Turnley, John Simonitis, John Bachman
DE - Rashad Weaver, Patrick Jones
DT - Gus Mustakas, Rashad Duncan
LB - SirVocea Dennis, Max Gruder, Quintin Wirginis
CB - Kennard Cox, Dane Jackson
S - Jason Hendricks, Terrish Webb
That’s not too bad. In fact, I think the defense would be pretty good. The line would be strong as ever; consider the fact that I had to leave Greg Romeus (and Joe Clermond, for that matter) off the starting lineup because Weaver and Jones were just that good.
I think the trio of Dennis, Gruder and Wirginis would fit pretty well in the current defensive scheme, too, with Dennis at Star, Gruder in the middle and Wirginis at Money.
The corners are no-brainers; Cox and Jackson were really good at Pitt. At safety, we already talked about Hendricks and I think Webb would be good enough.
The offense isn’t quite as strong, but it’s not bad.
Getsy gets the nod over Ben DiNucci, largely based on his two years at Akron. I picked Bennett over Rashad Jennings, who was also pretty good. The three receivers I picked were all really productive in their Pitt careers and Strong was a nice player at tight end.
The offensive line got a little tricky, especially at tackle. Gibbs actually played a lot - more than I remembered; he was a multi-year starter - but finding another tackle wasn’t easy. Bachman was the best option, and he was fairly good in his Pitt career. The problem was staying healthy.
I like the interior of the offensive line, though. Davis, Turnley and Simonitis were all really good as Panthers.
Overall, the defense looks stronger than the offense, but I think that team could probably do okay (especially if it was playing in the Big East in 2008).
A reloading defense
Earlier this week on the Morning Pitt I talked about the five most important players on Pitt’s defense for 2023.
As I looked at the roster and the likely two-deep, I started thinking more about the defense, and I started thinking about the terms “reload” and “rebuild.” We’re all more or less at the point now where I think we say “reload” far more than “rebuild” when it comes to Pitt’s defense, and I understand why. The recruiting has generally been stronger on that side of the ball than on offense and, well, to put it simply, the coaches have reloaded on defense pretty well in recent years.
After the 2020 season, Pitt had five defensive players go in the NFL Draft. Jaylen Twyman wasn’t exactly a player to replace since he opted out of the 2020 season to begin with, but Rashad Weaver, Patrick Jones, Damar Hamlin and Jason Pinnock were all starters and significant players on that side of the ball. Add in Paris Ford, who didn’t get drafted after he opted out at midseason and you’ve got five open starting jobs heading into the 2021 season.
We all saw what happened. Brandon Hill and Erick Hallett took over at safety and Damarri Mathis replaced Pinnock at corner, and all three of them have since been drafted. At defensive end, Habakkuk Baldonado and Deslin Alexandre stepped in for Weaver and Jones, and while they weren’t All-Americans, they were still pretty damn good.
The end result, of course, was an ACC Championship-winning team that matched high-caliber defense with high-scoring offense.
So that worked out.
This year feels like more of a challenge, though. Calijah Kancey was an All-American and a first-round Draft pick. SirVocea Dennis was a stud in the middle of the defense. Hallett and Hill were Draft picks at safety. And there are once again openings at both defensive end spots, where the expected starters have less experience and production than Baldonado and Alexandre had entering 2021.
I think it does seem a bit more daunting this year than it did two years ago. Maybe it’s the whole matter of losing key players up the middle of the defense. Kancey, Dennis, Hallett and Hill are all in the NFL, and that’s a straight line of openings from the front of the defense to the back that will be tough to fill.
That’s not to say I’m not optimistic about some of the replacements. Shayne Simon started every game last season and should know the defense well enough to play at middle linebacker. And the safeties - Javon McIntyre, Stephon Hall, P.J. O’Brien and Donovan McMillon - have a lot of potential.
I’m not quite as bullish on the replacements at defensive tackle - for this year, at least - but that’s probably more about the high bar Kancey set than the talent of this year’s projected starters.
I don’t know. I just can’t shake the feeling that this defense might have some growing pains early in the season. They should be talented enough to work them out by October or November, but the offense might have to do some extra heavy lifting in that first month to cover for some mistakes born of inexperience.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
Who will catch the passes?
We’ve talked a lot about the receivers this offseason - and we’ll probably continue talking about them until, oh, maybe December or so - but I was looking at numbers earlier this week and started thinking about that position group again.
The number that stood out to me was 101.
That’s how many receptions Pitt lost from last season.
Put another way - and put a better way - that’s how many receptions Jared Wayne, Vincent Davis, Israel Abanikanda, Jaden Bradley, Jaylon Barden, Gavin Thomson, Kyi Wright and Marcus Minor accounted for.
Yes, if we’re counting the receptions totaled by guys who are no longer on the roster, we include Minor because he had one. Those are the rules.
Add them all together and you get 101 of the 213 pass receptions recorded by Pitt in 2022.
Nearly half.
That’s a lot, and it’s even more daunting when you consider that Pitt wasn’t exactly the most prolific passing attack in the conference last year. In fact, the Panthers were ninth in the ACC in pass attempts and 10th in pass completions. So you’re starting with a low-producing passing attack and then you’re taking away the players who were responsible for nearly half the production.
That seems like a problem.
Of course, the biggest loss is Wayne, who put up 60 receptions for 1,063 yards and five touchdowns - all team highs. Somehow, the coaching staff is going to have to find someone to fill some or all of that production. Konata Mumpfield should catch a lot of passes in 2023, but he had 58 last year, so anything he gets this fall is pretty much just maintaining status quo.
Somebody else has to step up, and to be quite honest, I don’t have any good options.
Bub Means? Daejon Reynolds? A freshman or redshirt freshman? These are the top candidates, and it’s tough to generate optimism on much beyond blind faith.
Means has the physical tools, to be sure, but he caught 27 passes last season and even less at Louisiana Tech in 2021. It’s a long way from 27 to 50 or 60, and it’s going to take a major jump forward in consistency and reliability.
Reynolds has done even less in his college career. He caught 12 passes over two seasons at Florida, with eight of those receptions coming in one game (Pitt is staking a lot of hope on his 8/165/2 stat line against Vanderbilt).
Means and Reynolds both have the potential to do it, but that’s all it is right now. Potential.
Some of the freshmen will probably contribute. Lamar Seymore and Israel Polk were both here in the spring, and Kenny Johnson and Zion Fowler will arrive shortly. But there again, we’re just talking about potential.
Look, I know I’ve been over this before. And I apologize in advance for all the times I’ll say it again in the next four months. But Pitt desperately needs someone to step up at receiver. I guess the point today was to put numbers on it:
100 receptions gone from a passing game that wasn’t all that productive to begin with.
That’s a lot to fill.
How has Capel done in the portal so far?
Basketball recruiting - of all varieties - is in a dead period now for a week or so, which means no recruits, transfers or other interested parties can make visits until the 27th.
There’s a good chance Pitt will have a transfer or two visit when the dead period ends, but lately, all the news on the transfer front has been going the other way:
Pitt transfer targets committing to schools other than Pitt.
Niagara guard Noah Thomasson was a top target; he committed to Georgia last week. Marshall guard Andrew Taylor was a top target, too, at least for a minute; he committed to Mississippi State over the weekend. Pitt reached out to Georgia Tech guard Deivon Smith, but he committed to Utah last Friday.
One by one, targets have come off the board. Pitt has added two transfers this offseason, of course, but the last one was Rhode Island guard Ishmael Leggett, who committed more than a month ago, so it’s understandable that fans are getting a little antsy.
After all, Pitt still has two scholarships left to give and the coaches probably will look to use both of them on transfers. And yet, Jeff Capel and company can’t seem to find anyone to take them.
Is this a surprising turn after last season, when Pitt not only enjoyed a whole lot of success but also did so with some big contributions from transfers? I don’t blame you if you entered this offseason thinking that the Panthers should be primed to get some major scores from the portal based on what happened in the 2022-23 season.
By extension from that notion, I have sensed some disappointment in how the offseason has gone for Pitt, but I’m not sure there should be.
I’ve been thinking about the guys Pitt has missed and where they have gone this year. Thomasson and Taylor went to the SEC and Girard is staying in the ACC at Clemson. I don’t really recall Pitt’s transfers last year having those kinds of options in the portal.
Nelly Cummings was at Colgate and looking for somewhere to play his sixth year. Greg Elliott was a reserve at Marquette. Blake Hinson hadn’t played anywhere in more than two years.
That’s not exactly the same as Thomasson, Taylor and Girard, who are star players with big stats.
Pitt’s success in the transfer portal last offseason didn’t come from landing the top guys. It came from landing the right guys.
This may come off as a rationalization, but when I look at what the Panthers were able to do last season, a whole lot of it comes down to putting the right mix of guys on the court.
And I’m not just talking about their skill sets. Yes, Cummings was the perfect point guard for that team and Elliott and Hinson provided much needed three-point threats. But more than that, those guys fit the culture. Cummings was thrilled to be playing at home. Elliott was a ball of positivity and good energy. Hinson was grateful to have an opportunity to play again. And those guys - along with Jamarius Burton and Nike Sibande - helped set a tone in the locker room that went a long way in impacting the play on the court.
You need to have the talent, of course. Good guys and good culture don’t win games; talent does. But talent without the culture can make it a lot more difficult to win. Last year’s team had good talent and a great culture; it helped them survive the early-season struggles and carried them to the top of the ACC entering the final week of the regular season.
Last year’s team truly was a Team, and it earned that capital letter because the coaches put the right guys together.
I think Capel and his staff learned a whole lot from what they experienced last season, and I think they’re applying those lessons this year.
ONE PREDICTION
The freshman impact
One thing that is different about this offseason from last offseason is that Pitt’s needs are a little different.
There’s a one-player difference in the size of the returning rosters (five last year; six this year). But with the incoming freshmen, it feels like Pitt entered this offseason with more of a roster than it had last year.
Those incoming freshmen loom large here. And Dior Johnson; we should include him in that mix, because he’s basically a freshman. But while Johnson, Jaland Lowe and Carlton Carrington have no college basketball experience, all three are going to play a lot and be significant contributors this season.
That’s not something the coaches would have said last summer. There were no expectations for Federiko Federiko and the Diaz Graham twins to do anything in the 2022-23 season. Federiko was going to be John Hugley’s low-minutes backup and the twins would probably redshirt. That was it.
They all ended up doing a whole lot more, of course. But Pitt entered the transfer portal season this year with a lineup rotation in mind that included the freshmen in a way that they didn’t last year.
I think that has impacted everything that has gone down this offseason.
Rather than having an absolute need for a point guard and a three-point shooter, they’ve got some guys who can do some of those things in Johnson, Lowe and Carrington. The coaches added to that group with Leggett and Zack Austin, but the foundation of the back court is looking like those three freshmen plus any additions from the transfer portal.
From all indications, it seems like those three guys - Johnson, Lowe and Carrington - are up to the task. Johnson had some lofty expectations and hype attached to his name as a prospect, and Lowe and Carrington have been on an upward trajectory over the last calendar year.
This is college basketball, where freshmen can and regularly do contribute at a significant level, and I get the impression that the Pitt coaches are expecting exactly that from this group.
Admittedly, it’s not much of a prediction to come in here and say that those three guys are going to be counted on to play a lot this season. Everybody already knows that, I think.
But it’s worthwhile to bring it up again as Pitt hits the dead period with two scholarship spots still open, and it’s worthwhile to consider when we’re talking about the guys the Panthers didn’t land.
Pitt didn’t get Joe Girard or Noah Thomasson or Andrew Taylor; those guys all would have been nice additions to the Panthers’ roster - or just about anyone’s roster - but they didn’t get them.
Instead, they got Leggett and Austin - two pieces that fit around what Pitt has, rather than replacing it. Leggett and Austin complement Johnson, Lowe and Carrington (and Blake Hinson and Federiko and the Diaz Graham twins). They fill certain needs, but those needs reflect a certain sense I’ve gotten from the Pitt coaches this offseason:
The sense that some needs were already filled by landing Lowe and Carrington (and returning Johnson).
Those three are part of the plan for this season. The Pitt coaches didn’t have that influx of talent last year, so they recruited the transfer portal in a certain way that reflected that. This year, they do have it, and they’ve recruited the transfer portal in a certain way that reflects it.