The 3-2-1 Column: Sitting at the halfway point of the season

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In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we are assessing this Pitt football team and where they stand at the halfway point of the season. After this week, the team has a final six-game run to close out the regular season and make a run at an ACC title.

Of course, there are some basketball topics we need to discuss as well.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Just one more thing for Pitt basketball
It has been one week since Pitt freshman guard Dior Johnson had charges filed against him by the Pittsburgh Police Department. Those charges include aggravated assault, unlawful restraint, false imprisonment and strangulation from an incident that happened back in early September. The complaint from the victim says Johnson struck her multiple times, did not allow her to leave the apartment, and also ran at her with scissors.

The allegations are alarming to say the least.

Johnson was subsequently suspended by the team indefinitely and the school released the following statement last Friday. “The Pitt Athletic Department, which became aware of the charges Friday afternoon, will decline further comment until the legal process has reached a resolution.”

Last Friday’s events certainly were not the ideal start that Jeff Capel was hoping to have to begin the 2022-23 basketball season, a pivotal year for both him and the program overall.

Pitt made Dior Johnson available to the media in the days following the alleged incident. Capel himself spoke glowingly of Johnson in his own interviews. When Pitt denied the allegations last Friday, I genuinely think they were blindsided by the charges. In fact, I’m not sure Johnson himself was aware of them either.

It was a bit strange that a month’s time had lapsed from the alleged incident to charges being filed, and nobody from the university had any inkling that anything were coming. That’s a story for a different day, I think.

We will also let the legal process play out, as we have no idea how the proceedings will unfold, but it seems pretty unlikely Johnson will be wearing a Pitt uniform anytime soon, or perhaps ever for that matter.

Johnson’s arrival marked a sense of change around the Pitt basketball program, as he became the top recruit Capel has signed since his arrival. Johnson was expected to come in and provide an instant boost to the backcourt, as he was one of seven newcomers to enter the program ahead of this season.

In terms of the 2022-23 Pitt basketball season, losing a player of Johnson’s caliber will be tough to replace in the lineup. Pitt has Nelly Cummings, Jamarius Burton, Nike Sibande, and Greg Elliott in the backcourt, and those players will earn the bulk of the minutes this season.

Looking at the bigger picture overall for this Pitt basketball program and Capel’s tenure at large, Johnson’s arrest is just one more thing added to the negative column, which certainly outweighs the positives.

John Hugley had felony charges filed against him two years ago and Ithiel Horton had the same last offseason. In both cases, the two players were eventually able to return to the program with lesser offenses. But for the optics of it all is not ideal. Having three straight offseason with felony charges is not the type of streak you want as a program.

Pitt basketball has not made the NCAA Tournament for six straight seasons, another unfortunate streak, and they really haven’t even threatened to be in the top half of the ACC during that stretch either. There have been off-the-court issues, a litany of players transferring, devastating and untimely injuries, recruiting misses, and of course bad play on the court that have marred these past six years.

Jeff Capel already has the foundation of a strong recruiting class assembled for the class of 2023. There was optimism in the air about this current team that included Dior Johnson. It did feel like things were swinging in the right direction for a change, but it all came screeching to a half last Friday.

Pitt will begin the 2022-23 season on November 7th against Tennessee-Martin. Ahead of that, Pitt fans will get a chance to get a glimpse of the team with two exhibition games, the first of which is next Saturday against Clarion at the Petersen Events Center.

The once somewhat optimistic energy surrounding the program as recently as 8 days ago, has become a lot more cloudy in the days that have followed since the Johnson charges became public. Pitt basketball has run into a lot of obstacles in the past six years, and each time it appears they start to clear them, a new one emerges.

Izzy is the story
I get the feeling every week that I am writing too much about Pitt junior running back Israel Abanikanda. Every time I start to feel that way, Abanikanda rips off another impressive performance to keep his name in the spotlight.

Case in point last Saturday, Abanikanda rushed for a school-record 320 yards and tied the Pitt record with six touchdowns in a game. That performance helped lead Pitt to a 45-29 win over division rival Virginia Tech.

He was named the Walter Camp National Player of the Week. Abanikanda was also named ACC Running Back of the week for the third time this season. Those accolades were well deserved, too. Abanikanda was brilliant last week and he was everything Pitt needed him to be in order to get that win. At this point, there is no trying to bury the lede with Abanikanda anymore, he continues to shine and he has easily been Pitt’s best player this season.

Pitt’s offense has not been what many expected it to be. In terms of having balance and possessing a potent passing game, that aspect of the team is still trying to get going with transfer quarterback Kedon Slovis. We knew Pitt was likely to run the ball more this season given its returning offensive personnel, but it really has turned into a run-first approach.

Abanikanda leads the country in all-purpose yardage (1,117) and touchdowns (13). Pitt has needed to lean on its junior tailback and he has been delivered most of the season. Even in his least productive game this season, he ripped off the game-tying touchdown against West Virginia. In a loss to Georgia Tech, Abanikanda was injured and the offense predictably sputtered without his presence. He is not only Pitt’s best player on offense, but right now he’s the most valuable one as well.

It has been stated many times that you can’t win with a run-heavy approach, to which I agree. Pitt does need to get the passing game going, but if this team has any chance at all at winning the ACC again, it will be behind Abanikanda leading the team.

As a player, there has always been a sense that Abanikanda could be this kind of threat, and in 2022 he has finally been proving it on the field. Abanaikanda led the team in rushing a year ago, but with Kenny Pickett running the offense, he was a complimentary piece more than a focal point.

Abanikanda’s breakaway speed is elite. He does not need much space to find a hole and break through to the secondary. Teams are keying on him now for sure, but if he slips by the defense, there is not a game plan out there that can really stop elite speed once it gets going.

The idle week for the Panthers gives the team a chance to work on fixing the passing game, rest up some nagging injuries, but perhaps most importantly the off week gives Abanikanda the chance to get charged up for a second half run.

Pitt will likely get second string running back Rodney Hammond back into the fold, and that’s huge for this team. Hammond is very good in his own right, and would start for a lot of teams.

While Hammond is really good and having that 1-2 punch is a benefit, it’s clear Abanikanda is the gamebreaker for this team. He has a different gear and his speed can change games. The story of the 2022 Pitt football team at the halfway point has been about Abanikanda, and if they are to make another ACC title run, I’m expecting to write a few more stories about him as well.

The road that lies ahead
I expected the 2022 Pitt football team to be 5-1 at this current juncture of the season. In my head, I figured Pitt would likely be ranked, atop the ACC Coastal Division standings, and still somewhat in the conversation to be an outside playoff team. Those expectations did not turn into reality.

Pitt is 4-2. They lost to a bad Georgia Tech team and slipped from the rankings because of it. Instead of that 2-0 league record, the Panthers are now in the muck of the division with a 1-1 mark, and any of those outside hopes to make the College Football Playoffs have been squashed.

Time to reset, I suppose.

Pitt has six games to close out the regular season beginning next week with a game at Louisville. The Panthers will have four road games down the stretch. While the Panthers aren’t the leader of the Coastal Division, the team is very much in a position to control its own destiny and make a run to win it for a second straight season.

The first half of the season didn’t go as expected for Pitt, but really the same could be said for many teams in the ACC, including all six of the Panthers opponents down the stretch.

Pitt will take on Louisville in an 8:00 p.m. kick next Saturday to start the second half of the season. It is a road night game for Pitt, and the Panthers shouldn’t be too alarmed about those circumstances. Pitt has won seven straight road games, and the Panthers have won 10 of their last 12 night games. This is a veteran football team, and they generally do not seem phases playing on the road or having their routine pushed back because of night games, which are positive traits to have.

Louisville has been shaky thus far, with a 3-3 start to the season. Cardinals’ head coach Scott Satterfield does not appear to be standing on stable footing with his administration with a 21-22 start to his tenure. Star quarterback Malik Cunningham missed last week’s game, the first start he’s missed in 40 games. He is sort of the key to everything Louisville does offensively.

Pitt will then travel to Chapel Hill to take on North Carolina on October 29th. UNC may be the most interesting team in the league. The Tar Heels are the highest scoring team in the ACC behind quarterback Drake Maye, but North Carolina has also been the worst defensive team in the conference. Pat Narduzzi is 2-0 against Mack Brown, but the Tar Heels have owned the series historically and Pitt is 0-6 all-time in Chapel Hill.

Pitt will return home to face Syracuse on November 5th. As it stands today, the Orange are undefeated and ranked No. 18. With games against NC State, Clemson, and Notre Dame between now and then, it’s safe to wonder if Syracuse will still be ranked in November. Syracuse is still a little more of a threat than usual, and this game will pit the two best running backs in the conference with Abanikanda going against Syracuse’s Sean Tucker. It will be interesting to see which player will be pleased with their performance that day.

Pitt then has a two-week stretch with Virginia on the road and Duke at home. Virginia has been the worst team in the division, while Duke was expected to hold that distinction. Pitt is 7-1 against Duke and 6-2 against the Cavaliers since joining the ACC ahead of the 2013 season.

Pitt will close the year with Miami on the road, the Saturday after Thanksgiving. The Hurricanes were expected to be the top team in the ACC Coastal in 2022, but a loss to Middle Tennessee State earlier the season had to be a humbling experience. Miami is likely the most talented team Pitt will see in the remainder of the regular season, but that is nothing new, rarely does the Hurricanes’ record match their talent level. In any event, Pitt has been historically horrible against Miami. The Panthers are 3-22 over the last 25 meetings.

I still have plenty of questions about this current Pitt team, but in fairness their opponents the rest of the year have similar issues. The road ahead is not a scary or daunting one, but it is very much unpredictable.

While North Carolina has risen to the status of being the team to beat in the division, we all know how quickly that can change. The ACC is set to do away with the two division scheduling format starting next year and it’s only fair that fans of college football get one more year of ‘Coastal Chaos’ and it is very much looking like that will be the case again.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

How would you grade the offense at the halfway point?

Quarterback: C
Pitt has not received good quarterback play to this point, and coming off of a historical season in 2021 with Kenny Pickett, it almost feels more evident than it should. I don’t put everything against Kedon Slovis to this point. There have been some questionable game plans in place, a number of dropped passes, and all the injuries surrounding the team haven’t helped matters either, and of course his own Injury. Slovis has seemed hesitant since returning from that injury, and I can’t quite put my finger on why that has been the case. I do think he is capable of much more than he has shown, but at the midterm of the season, it has not been an overly impressive performance with only five touchdown passes to this point.

Running Back: A
Israel Abanikanda is the second leading rusher in the country at this very moment. He broke a Tony Dorsett record last week with 320 yards against Virginia Tech. For the first time since 2018, it looks like Pitt will have a running back rush for over 1,000 yards in a season. Abanikanda has been mostly brilliant, but he was bottled up against West Virginia. In that game however, Rodney Hammond stepped up and carried the load. I think Daniel Carter has been solid in his role, and aside from the two fumbles against Georgia Tech, Vincent Davis has ran the ball well this season. Pitt’s offense is being driven by the running game, and the backs have been answering the call.

Wide Receivers: C
I think it is fair to say everyone underestimated the loss of Jordan Addison a little too much when evaluating this team. Konata Mumpfield was expected to be his replacement, and in hindsight those were just far too lofty of expectations to put on any one player. Mumpfield cleaned up the early season drops and has been solid since, but he is not that deep threat many were hoping he could be. Jared Wayne has been Jared Wayne, and he has had a strong season to date. Bub Means also has been a let down relative to what was said about him in the offseason. Jaylon Barden has been nonexistent in the game plans despite a strong training camp, while Jaden Bradley has shown flashes of good play and also inexperience. This is a talented group that has a chance to be more effective in the second half of the season in my opinion, but the first six games left a lot to be desired.

Tight Ends: B
Gavin Bartholomew went from being effectively an H-Back last season to being the number one, featured tight end this year. I think there were more adjustments to that transition than some may have realized, but Bartholomew has been pretty good this year. He has made some highlight reel plays this season, including that touchdown against Tennessee where he leaped over a defender. Bartholomew is still a player with a ton of upside, and I think he has room to grow into his role yet. Karter Johnson has been a pleasant surprise, especially in blocking. He missed the West Virginia game, but the running game has been more effective since he’s returned to the lineup. Ultimately I feel like Bartholomew has been underused, and there should be more opportunities to get him involved in the second half.

Offensive Line: B-
The offensive line was not very good against West Virginia. They also allowed too many hits to Kedon Slovis against Tennessee. This was supposed to be a strength of the whole team, and it didn’t really show up in the first two games of the season. They have been better in the four games since, however. I think they have also provided a cleaner pocket for Slovis of late, while also paving the way for all of Abanikanda’s success. On some of Abanikanda’s long runs, the hole is so wide open, he isn’t even touched. That’s impressive and what this group should have been doing all year. The offensive line should have been a no-doubt ‘A’ to start the year, but they have underachieved if we’re being fair. However, the expected starting five has yet to play a single snap together all season and getting healthy for the second half could be key.

How would you grade the defense at the halfway point?

Defensive Line: B
Pitt has 40 tackles for loss and 19 sacks as a team. Both are near the top in the ACC, but given the talent returning, it does feel like the Pitt defensive line is underachieving a bit, at least relative to their own high expectations. The defensive ends have dealt with a lot of missed time from Deslin Alexandre, Habakkuk Baldonado, and Dayon Hayes. John Morgan has been a constant, but the production from the edge has been lacking. Conversely, the interior players have been playing well in my opinion. Calijah Kancey is second in the ACC in tackles for loss with 8.5 and has also posted six QB hurries. David Green has 2.5 sacks, and Devin Danielson has made some plays. I think the defensive line has been pretty good, and while they aren’t nationally elite like usual, it’s still a pretty strong unit that is capable of performing better in the second half of the season.

Linebackers: C
Pitt has not been as good against the run this year, and I feel a lot of that has fallen on the linebackers. The Panthers run fits at the second level have been off at times, and you’ve seen teams have more success on the ground against Pitt than usual, and some longer runs have occurred that generally don’t happen. SirVocea Dennis has been solid in the middle with 44 tackles, 4 sacks, and two hurries. But the outside spots have been lacking, with Shayne Simon and Bangally Kamara not being as productive. I’ve been impressed with the play of Tylar Wiltz and Solomon DeShields in recent games, and I wonder if those two push for more playing time down the stretch.

Defensive Backs: A
Pitt was 114th in the country last season in pass defense, and through six games the Panthers are ranked 48th. That’s a very strong improvement. I think there are some factors in play that have helped those numbers improve, but most importably I think Pitt just has some good defensive backs. Erick Hallett is performing at a very high level this season, while Brandon Hill and Marquis Williams have been solid. Pitt is still prone to giving up some deep shots, and that’s the nature of the defense, but the experience back here has helped limit those opportunities.

Special Teams: D
Pitt is ranked 124th out of 131 teams in net punting. Sam Vander Harr has struggled, and he has had two punts blocked on the year. First-year starter Ben Sauls is 7-of-10 on field goal attempts, though he has been perfect on extra points. Pitt did get a nice boost on a punt return from MJ Devonshire against Rhode Island, but penalties have piled up on a lot of the return attempts by the team since that have hurt them in the field position department. Special teams has been lackluster to say the least, and they need to improve significantly in the second half.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt wins the ACC Coastal
The 2022 Pitt football season has not been what I expected it to be, but still at the halfway point of the season all of their goals are still in front of them, well…some of them.

Look after every regular season loss in the past two seasons (Western Michigan and Miami in 2021, Tennessee and Georgia Tech in 2022), the repeated phrase from Pat Narduzzi down through his team is always, ‘All of our goals are still in front of us’ and that is true technically.

The team was aiming higher this season and that was the chatter around them during the offseason. Pitt came into the year preseason ranked, but did not really live up to those national expectations, so now they have no choice but to key in on winning the conference.

This Pitt team is aiming to win the ACC Championship, and they overcame two losses last year and were able to accomplish that goal. With two losses this year, they have a similar opportunity to get hot and make a run at a repeat championship

For some reason, I think they can do it again, at least on the division side, and that’s my prediction for the week. I still have plenty of concerns around this Pitt football team, but I truly don’t think they have played their best football. Also, a ot of my reasons for picking them has to do with the competition. North Carolina is going to be a tough game. The next toughest game is against…..?

It is just a wide open Coastal Division, like it usually is.

I think Pitt has found an identity with Israel Abanikanda running the football, and it should only be strengthened with Rodney Hammond there to help carry the load. That experienced offensive line is coming around, but they do need Slovis and the passing game to get going. I understand that, but I still think they have the tools in place to be successful there.

The issues with the defense aren’t things they are incapable of, it’s just a matter of staying healthy and performing like they did last year. Pitt’s a different defense if the Habakkuk Baldonado from last year shows up in the second half of the schedule and wreaks havoc off the edge.

Pitt does not have a ton of room for error down the stretch and four of the six games are on the road. This is a veteran team that is comfortable playing away from Acrisure Stadium and they seem to have mature, businesslike approach in road games.

I think Pitt has yet to play its best football this season, the Coastal Division is up for grabs, and ultimately I think the defending champions will have the most to say about who takes it this season.