The 3-2-1 Column: RB recruiting, NIL challenges, hoops stories and more

MORE HEADLINES - Recruiting rundown: Everything you need to know ahead of Pitt's final official visit weekend | The Morning Pitt: All the news on a busy Friday | Offer recap: Running down the latest players Pitt has offered | 2024 RB Goff excited by Pitt offer | Donovan McMillon comes home to Pitt | PODCAST: One week until Signing Day | Where has Pat Narduzzi been the last two weeks?

After a busy week in Pitt sports, there's plenty to chew on in this week's 3-2-1 Column, from the state of running back recruiting to the challenges Pitt is facing in navigating the NIL landscape.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

The WPIAL is coming home
I don’t know if it’s enough to call it a trend, but it’s definitely a thing:

Local prospects who leave the area and end up transferring back to Pitt.

It doesn’t happen a lot, but it happens. It has always happened, in fact. I remember back in the days of Dave Wannstedt when the staff would say that “so-and-so from such-and-such WPIAL school wants to transfer to Pitt.” Oftentimes, the staff would decline, because what had been proven in the interim was that the player wasn’t really good enough to begin with.

There have been some recent examples of successful coming-home stories, though. John Petrishen comes to mind; with 74 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and three interceptions in 2021, he was an integral piece of Pitt’s ACC championship run after transferring home following a few years in State College.

M.J. Devonshire also did more than enough in 2022 to put himself in the “good” category, too. Whether it was his game-winning pick-six at the end of the West Virginia game, his game-opening pick-six at the start of the win at Virginia, his punt return touchdown in the Rhode Island game or his generally strong play at cornerback, Devonshire was a playmaker for the Panthers this year after he came home from Kentucky.

Those two worked out. Now Pitt is hoping more - two or three or maybe four - will work out, too.

You already know the story here: Phil Jurkovec is coming home from Boston College (and Notre Dame before that) after he turned down the Panthers as a four-star quarterback at Pine-Richland. Donovan McMillon is following Jurkovec as a safety transfer to Pitt from Florida, where he went out of high school at Peters Township. And former Gateway star Derrick Davis is in the mix as a potential coming-home transfer, too, following two seasons at LSU.

(Kent State receiver Dante Cephas, a former Penn Hills standout, is also looking at Pitt from the transfer portal, but he’s a little different because, unlike Petrishen, Devonshire, Jurkovec, McMillon and Davis, he didn’t turn Pitt down as a high school recruit; Pitt didn’t offer him due to academic issues.)

I think everybody loves a good story, and what story is better than a local player prodigal-sonning his way back home for a triumphant conclusion to his college career? It was a great story when Devonshire iced the Backyard Brawl. It will be a great story if Jurkovec and McMillon (and possibly Davis) lead Pitt to more success.

Two thoughts spring from these would-be storybook endings, though.

1. It’s entirely possible that the hometown reclamation projects, either in the past or the future, have a trickle-down effect on local high school recruits in the classes to come.

“Look at those guys,” the Pitt coaches can say, “They thought the grass was greener but found out that everything they wanted was right here all along.”

That could happen. And it might not be the worst thing to have a few more hometown heroes to hold up as examples (along with guys like Aaron Donald and Tyler Boyd and Dane Jackson and Damar Hamlin, etc.).

2. The flip side, though, is the other message that might get sent. Future recruits might look at those situations and have a different take.

“I can go off to the SEC or Big Ten or wherever, see the world a little bit, and if it doesn’t work out, I can always come home to Pitt.”

That’s entirely plausible, too. And maybe even likely.

And if that happens, so be it. If you’re the Pitt coaches and there’s a former WPIAL star who wants to come home, you take him if you think he can help you win. Pride does you no favors here. Pride doesn’t win football games. Good players win football games, so when a WPIAL kid announces his top 10 before the end of his junior year of high school and it doesn’t include Pitt, you might take it personally at the time. But you can’t hold that against him two years later when that same kid wants to come back and be a Panther.

If he can help you win, you take him. Period.

And if it makes for a good story, that’s all the better.

Recruiting the backfield
Pitt hasn’t gotten a running back from the transfer portal or one from the WPIAL (although if Derrick Davis becomes a Panther, it would likely be as a running back, so that could cover all bases).

But Pitt did get a running back commitment this week, and I think it’s worth taking a moment to look at how the coaching staff has approached the backfield in recent years.

We’ll start with the present and work backward. Pitt’s commitment this week came from Bowdon (Ga.) three-star TJ Harvison. He’s a bigger back with a ton of production and success, rushing for more than 2,000 yards on a state championship team this season. Harvison took his official visit last weekend and committed a couple days later, and with his commitment, Pitt now has two backs in the class of 2023.

The other is Montravius Lloyd, a three-star from Florida with a stat sheet that looks very different from the one Harvison boasts. Rather than serving as a workhorse every-down back, Lloyd was a versatile weapon, recording 46 rushing attempts and 40 receptions for close to 700 yards of total offense and seven touchdowns.

Lloyd and Harvison are different backs - not in the way that Daniel Carter and Vincent Davis were a thunder-and-lightning pairing in the 2019 class. These two are more a pairing in their styles and usage, with Harvison capable of being a lead back while Lloyd looks like a weapon who can play in different spots, lining up in the backfield or out wide. It will be interesting to see how Pitt uses him.

On the bigger question of running back recruiting, though, I think there are some interesting things to note from what the Panthers have done in the last few years.

Here are the running backs Pitt has signed in the last five classes (2018-22):

There are some misses, of course. But overall, I think that’s a pretty solid run. Abanikanda and Hammond have been hits, to be sure. And say what you will about Vincent Davis, but he was a good program guy who did just about everything that was asked of him (especially during a period when there wasn’t a whole lot being asked of the running backs).

Salahuddin didn’t pan out and is currently back in the transfer portal as a defensive back after a couple seasons at North Carolina A&T. Newton put up decent numbers at West Virginia State in 2021 and was on the roster in 2022, but I don’t see any stats for him. Bailey ended up at Division II Chowan University in Murfreesboro, N.C. As a freshman this season, he had 445 yards of total offense and four touchdowns on 72 touches.

There are always going to be misses when you look at a five-year cycle of recruiting at any position, but I would say Pitt has gotten four solid-to-good-or-above careers from the seven backs they signed from 2018-22. And considering that two guys busted basically before they even joined the team - which was out of Pitt’s control - you’re really looking at Davis, Carter, Abanikanda and Hammond against Salahuddin; that’s not bad.

This next year will be interesting, though. Assuming Davis and Abanikanda leave, Pitt is projected to have Hammond and transfer C’Bo Flemister as the returning scholarship tailbacks (with Carter as a fullback). Harvison and Lloyd will join this offseason, but it probably wouldn’t hurt to add a veteran transfer to the group for the 2023 season.

Two big hoops storylines
The Pitt basketball team was off this week due to finals, giving us some extra time to think about the Panthers and reflect on what we’ve learned so far after 11 games.

We’ve learned that Jamarius Burton is very good and an absolute necessity for this team as it gets set for ACC play following Saturday’s non-conference closer against North Florida. But that’s no surprise; we already knew that coming into the season, because for all of the guards Pitt added this offseason and all the talk we had about the veteran backcourt, Burton was still the leader and a crucial piece of whatever success the Panthers will have this year.

So we’ve learned that, but we already knew it.

More relevant - and more of a revelation - have been the performances of John Hugley and Nelly Cummings.

I always prefer to lead with the bad and close with the good, so I think you know where we have to start.

Hugley just hasn’t been good this season. It’s not fair to him to put it so bluntly and without context, but it’s the truth. The context, of course, is that Hugley’s entire start to the season has been mired by the knee injury he suffered in September. As Jeff Capel has said multiple times - almost every time, it seems - that injury left Hugley unable to bend his knee for about six weeks, and no matter how good a player is, no matter how well he maintains his conditioning, that kind of forced inactivity is going to take some time to come back from.

And it has taken Hugley some time.

He missed the first two games of the season before making his debut against Michigan, when he played 22 minutes, made two field goals - only one of them inside the arc - and grabbed one rebound.

Hugley didn’t play in the next game, the Legends Classic-ending loss to VCU, but he has played in all seven games since. He started that stretch with a trio of good performances, averaging 14 and 7 in wins over Alabama State, Fairleigh Dickinson and William & Mary. But in the four games since then, has made just four total field goals, scored 12 total points and grabbed seven total rebounds. He was shut out on the glass twice - at N.C. State and at Vanderbilt - and had just two boards at Northwestern.

Last Saturday’s win over Sacred Heart was the most shocking: Hugley came off the bench and played behind Federiko Federiko the entire game, and his only playing time in the second half came when he saw three and a half minutes while Federiko caught a breather. Hugley was a depth player at that point, a guy whose main purpose is to let the starter get a few minutes of rest, and he finished with two points and five rebounds in 11 minutes.

Now, I’ve said basically since the start of the season that I’m not concerned about Hugley, and that it will take quite a bit for me to get concerned. And I’m sticking with that for now. But at some point in the near future, Pitt’s star junior center is going to have to start taking steps forward. I understand that you can’t rush a return from injury, but when the ACC games start, Federiko is not going to have the kind of size advantage that allowed him to post a double-double against Sacred Heart.

Pitt is going to need Hugley. Progress has to come.

Meanwhile, Cummings has been a case study in steady improvement and the value of settling into new surroundings.

The Colgate transfer was a little rough to open the season. Even he would probably acknowledge that. Through the first four games, Cummings averaged 7.8 points per game while shooting 37.5% from the floor and 2-of-13 from three. He also had 15 assists and 14 turnovers in that stretch.

Since then, Cummings has improved considerably. He has averaged 12.7 points per game over the last seven and has 34 assists with just 12 turnovers. It’s no coincidence that Pitt is 6-1 in that stretch, and Cummings was at his best last Saturday when he scored a season-high 24 points, grabbed six rebounds, handed out five assists (for the second game in a row), made four steals and committed just two turnovers.

That performance was vital for Pitt as Burton didn’t play due to knee inflammation. Given that the inflammation is a recurring issue that has already kept Burton out of two games and could cost him more games later in the season, it was crucial to see Cummings step up in his absence.

Just as importantly, Cummings didn’t commit a foul, showing a veteran’s awareness of the situation, because without Burton, Cummings was the only point guard Pitt could put on the court. Which means he absolutely had to stay on the court.

So you have two players going in opposite directions with Hugley and Cummings. If Pitt is going to find some success in conference play, though, the Panthers will need the arrows point up on both.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What is Pitt’s NIL problem, pt. 1?
It’s impossible to talk about recruiting and especially the transfer portal without bringing up NIL - the name, image and likeness rights granted to student-athletes who can now use their own names, images and likenesses to generate long overdue revenue.

We all know that NIL deals are looming large in recruiting these days, and they are looming large over all three elements of recruiting:

High school prospects, transfers and current players

Yes, current players are part of this, because while coaches spend the offseason trying to get recruits to commit and transfers to join the program, they’re also working to make sure as many of their own key players don’t leave town.

And NIL plays into all of that. Whether we want to acknowledge it for what it is or not doesn’t really matter. It is what it is, and it’s a factor in all three pieces of recruiting.

The question is not about what impact NIL deals have in recruiting; it’s about how colleges are using NIL deals to impact recruiting.

More specifically, and more above board, it’s about how NIL deals are being used on behalf of colleges to impact recruiting. Because we all know that schools themselves can’t give student-athletes the money from NIL deals; it has to come from outside sources, third parties who operate beyond the scope of the university itself.

Now, there are a lot of angles here, a lot of threads to keep in the old Duder’s head. A lot more than we can cover in the 500 or so words in this section of the column (which is probably why we will make it two sections). But there are a couple key areas that have made it more difficult for Pitt to navigate and leverage, via outside parties, NIL deals to create competitive advantages.

The first issue comes from Harrisburg. We’re not getting political here, but every state has its own NIL law, and Pennsylvania’s version - which affects Pitt, Penn State and every other school in the commonwealth - does the college teams no favors. It’s not completely limiting, but it does hold back what the in-state schools can do.

For instance, Pat Narduzzi and James Franklin could not, by law, do this:

Hugh Freeze basically cut a promo for Auburn’s NIL collective. I was going to paraphrase Freeze to something like, “Give us money so we can get recruits,” but I don’t even need to do that. It’s right there in the tweet:

“The transfer portal is open and signing day is right around the corner. Make a difference and become a member today.”

Talk about saying the quiet part out loud.

Bob Huggins did something similar at the beginning of December.

Not quite as forthright as Freeze and Auburn, but the message is still clear:

“Give us money so we can get recruits.”

I just looked through the Twitter feeds of Pat Narduzzi and James Franklin, and they have no such content. Because they can’t. Because state law prohibits it.

Pitt can acknowledge Alliance 412, which is the primary collective working to help the Panthers, and the Athletic Department has done so, most recently with a co-hosted educational event. But Pitt can’t promote Alliance 412 and can’t facilitate the deals, which makes things more challenging. The biggest way the average fan can help is by donating to collectives like Alliance 412, but without Pitt promoting it and providing direct contact to the fans, the collective is kind of wandering in the wilderness, unable to find the fans.

Or maybe the fans are wandering in the wilderness, unable to find the collective.

Pitt’s doing everything it can, by law, and it even set up the Forged Here initiative, which helps local businesses connect with student-athletes. But there’s a lot more that can be done - once the law changes.

Fortunately for Pitt (and Penn State, etc.), a change in state law is coming in January. But that’s only going to solve one of the problems.

What is Pitt’s NIL problem, pt. 2?
Updating the state law will help the situation and allow Pitt to be more directly involved in the world of NIL, but that’s only half the battle - and probably the small half.

Once the state laws are changed, the Athletic Department needs to be ready to move on engaging donors and connecting them to the collective and various NIL opportunities. Ideally, Director of Athletics Heather Lyke and her team have already been working on this and the various mechanisms are in place and ready to go. They should be ready to push the button before the ink is dry with the governor’s signature (or whatever legislative operation will put it into law).

But there’s more to it than that, and this is probably the biggest challenge facing Pitt as it attempts to be competitive in the world of NIL:

They need people to give money.

Straight cash, homie. Bones or clams or whatever you call them.

Pitt fans have it. Pitt’s student-athletes need it. Point A needs to connect to Point B in the most direct path possible. But if the train doesn’t leave the station, then it’s not going to get anywhere.

What I’m saying is, Pitt is going to need donors to step up. And in a big way.

Look around the country. The schools that are succeeding in leveraging NIL to be more competitive, either in recruiting high school kids, landing transfers or retaining current players, are doing so with major support from the university administration and even more support from fans.

The collectives that have sprung up in college sports are built by fans. They often have guidance from the universities, but the fans, the donors, the supporters - they are the ones who make the whole thing work.

And the sad, historic reality of it all is that Pitt doesn’t have many of them. Not enough of them.

Pitt’s got the alumni base. The numbers are there. That base just doesn’t produce a lot in the way of donation dollars.

If the dollars don’t come, it gets a whole lot more challenging to be competitive in the NIL era. That’s the simple reality.

Complicating the situation - and every school is going to have to figure this one out - is that the pool of available donor dollars is, at some point, finite. If you assume that almost all of the people who are willing to contribute to an NIL collective are also the people who are willing to contribute to the Athletic Department’s general fund or other specific fundraising drives, you end up with a vexing query:

If you’re an athletic director, do you want that money going to NIL or do you want it coming to you? Do you want it to get a star running back or point guard, or do you want it in a more broad fund that can be used in a variety of ways across the department?

There’s only so much money to go around, and if you’re already trying to figure out how to pay for a $200 million Olympic sports facility, are you going to direct your donors to support the collective?

Every dollar that goes to the collective (and ultimately the student-athletes) is a dollar that is either being diverted from a general athletics donation, or a dollar that could be added on top of a general athletics donation.

Try walking that tightrope for awhile.

“Please support our NIL collective so our teams can be more competitive. But also please give to athletics because we need to pay for stuff.”

I don’t envy anyone in that position, but that’s why you’re at the top of the food chain in the administration: to figure out that balance.

It’s not going to be easy, but Pitt needs to have a plan - a broad, functioning, workable plan - on how the University and the Athletic Department are going to manage this landscape.

And they need to have that plan by yesterday.

ONE PREDICTION

Finishing the class
It’s always fun to follow the end of the recruiting cycle, when things change quickly, recruits show up on - and fade quickly from - the radar out of nowhere and you’re constantly trying to chase down prospects, coaches, trainers and the like to find out about visits, offers and the like.

It’s a wild couple of weeks, and that has certainly been the case this year.

And for whatever reason, Pat Narduzzi’s staff makes it even more interesting almost every year. It seems like every recruiting class has those late surprises, those prospects who were maybe on the radar over the previous summer but seemed to slip away and be out of reach. Then they show up with their name on the Signing Day press release and we all marvel at how it happens year after year.

Last year, four-star defensive end Samuel Okunlola was a Signing Day add. Jordaan Bailey was, too, in a manner of speaking, after he decommitted a couple weeks earlier.

In 2021, Tamarion Crumpley popped up on Signing Day and P.J. O’Brien committed on Christmas - more than a week after Signing Day.

In 2020, Buddy Mack didn’t commit until Signing Day, although I think we knew at the time that he was on the way. We didn’t know quite as much about Rashad Battle and Ben Sauls; both of them were additions to the class who signed in February.

Yes, it’s true: you can still sign in February. That does still exist.

2019 brought SirVocea Dennis as a February commitment and signing. A year earlier, Erick Hallett came out of nowhere late in the cycle; Habakkuk Baldonado blew up on the scene in January; and Mychale Salahuddin ended up in Pitt’s class on Signing Day after having been committed to USC.

2017 saw A.J. Davis make his commitment announcement on Signing Day. And 2016 had surprises from Keyshon Camp and Rashad Weaver.

Pretty much every year, Narduzzi and company have found some voila moments in the run-up to Signing Day.

So who’s it going to be this year? The candidate might be Israel Polk. A three-star receiver at national powerhouse St. John Bosco - they’re literally ranked No. 1 in USA Today’s national high school rankings - Polk was committed to Colorado State but reopened his recruitment this week and got an offer from Pitt on Thursday.

Now he’ll be in town over the weekend for an official visit, and all signs seem to point toward him being this year’s late add.

At the same time, there is a whole host of other opportunities for surprise additions thanks to the transfer portal. We’re not just looking at the recruiting class for the final touches to the class; we’re also looking at potential adds from the portal as well. And that’s a big, wide open space full of guys who could join the roster.

As far as recruits, though, Polk and the other two visitors this weekend - Steel Valley defensive back Cruce Brookins and West Palm Beach (Fla.) Cardinal Newman defensive end Maverick Gracio - seem like they’ll fill out the high school class, and we’ll see what happens with transfers after that.