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We've got a lot to cover in this week's 3-2-1 Column, from the situation at quarterback, running back and receiver to the state of the Petersen Events Center and Jeff Capel's buyout.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Don’t count out Nick Patti
Look, I’m as guilty of this as anyone.

And that probably includes the Pitt coaches.

I saw the Pitt coaches recruit Kedon Slovis as a transfer from USC and said to myself, ‘They’re bringing this guy in to start.’ And I saw Slovis pick Pitt as his transfer destination and said to myself, ‘This guy is coming here to start.’

Which makes sense: you don’t go get a fairly-accomplished starter from another Power Five conference and bring him in for depth. You bring him in to start. And Slovis isn’t transferring to provide depth. He’s transferring to start.

So that’s the expectation, and to be honest, I’m still looking for Slovis to be Pitt’s starter this season.

But I’m also coming around to the idea that we shouldn’t entirely rule out Nick Patti.

Look, I know what we all have seen when Patti is out there. He’s got a funky delivery. The ball doesn’t seem to have a lot of zip to it. And he can run okay, but I don’t know if he would beat Kenny Pickett’s 4.67 at the Combine.

And yet, there’s something about Patti. He has played in 12 games at Pitt, but most of those were in backup duty/garbage time. I would point to four games where he was used in significant situations with the game still on the line:

UCF 2019, Delaware 2019, Florida State 2020, Michigan State 2021.

In the win over UCF at Heinz Field in 2019, he replaced an injured Kenny Pickett and completed 2-of-3 passes for 16 yards and one touchdown (and his other completion also gained a first down). A week later, he was called on to manage the game and do very little more when Pitt hosted Delaware and escaped with a 17-14 win.

At Florida State in 2020, Patti stepped in for multiple goal line situations and rushed for two touchdowns while Pickett was nursing an ankle injury. And at the Peach Bowl this past December, Patti survived a tough starting field position on the first drive and then on the second drive stormed down the field, completing two passes for 21 yards and rushing three times for 27 yards to score a game-tying touchdown (on a play that busted his shoulder).

Look, there’s nothing in Patti’s career line that is going to inspire talk of a Heisman candidacy: 42-of-67 (62.7%), 479 yards (7.1 ypa), three touchdowns and one interception. But in each of those games, Patti made winning plays.

Even the Peach Bowl counts here: Pitt lost that game, but I would bet a whole lot on the proposition that the Panthers would have won if Patti hadn’t gotten hurt on the team’s second offensive possession. I’m fairly confident of that.

Now, I’ll say that if I have the option between a “gamer” at quarterback and a guy who can make big-time throws, give me the big-time passer. We have yet to see Patti make the kinds of throws Pickett made last year, and I would contend that those throws had a whole lot to do with Pitt’s success. And like I said, if I had to bet on it today, I would probably put my money on Slovis being the starter.

But maybe we shouldn’t count Patti out just yet. He’s a redshirt senior - although his age advantage is countered a bit by having a new offense to learn - and he has made plays when given the chance. It’s not always pretty, but it’s effective, and maybe he’ll impress the coaches enough to carry this competition into the summer.

Quite a night
Pitt had its final home game of the 2021-22 season Tuesday night. The Panthers hosted Duke, which would have been a major event in previous years - more on that in a minute - but wasn’t quite at that level this year, given the circumstances of Pitt’s season and the most likely outcome of the game.

And while Jeff Capel’s group didn’t do anything very well on the court, Pat Narduzzi’s crew did off the court. As you’ve probably seen, Narduzzi and the Pitt football coaching staff had a star-studded collection of recruits in attendance Tuesday night, and it was pretty impressive to see.

There was Quinton Martin, the four-star athlete from Belle Vernon, and Ta’Mere Robinson, the four-star defensive end/outside linebacker from Brashear. There was Anthony Speca, the would-be four-star linebacker from Central Catholic, and Tiqwai Hayes, the rising star freshman running back from Aliquippa, along with his teammate, Cameron Lindsey, who has an offer from Pitt.

Oh, and there was Peter Gonzalez, the sophomore receiver from Central Catholic who got an offer from Pitt Tuesday night and just so happens to be the son of Pete Gonzalez.

Yes, that Pete Gonzalez.

All of those guys were at the game, along with a handful of other players from the area, and it made for quite a collection of talent at court side. It was, with the exception of four-star Laurel Highlands athlete Rodney Gallagher, who had to miss the visit for basketball practice, all of Pitt’s main targets in one place.

Of course, when word started getting out that Narduzzi would have these recruits at the game, there were inevitably questions about why the Pitt football coaches would bring them to watch the Pitt basketball team suffer what was likely to be - and ended up being - a pretty bad loss.

I understand that perspective, but I think you have to look at the goals here. Almost the entire month of February was a recruiting dead period, which meant that recruits and coaches could not have in-person contact. That dead period ended on Feb. 28, so Tuesday was the first day in-person contact was permissible.

And on the first day of the recruiting contact period, the coaches focused on making the most of it by getting their top targets on campus.

The Pitt staff actually did this over the summer, too. When the extended dead period - which stretched back to spring 2020 due to Covid - finally ended on May 31, Narduzzi and company brought every top local target they could find to the South Side for visits on June 1. That was, for all intents and purposes, the first thing the coaches did as soon as they could do it, and it really comes down to this:

With Gallagher, Robinson, Speca and Martin, these next two recruiting classes have some big-time national talent in the local area. Throw in Lindsey and Gonzalez (plus anybody else who might emerge) and Pitt’s got some serious targets to pursue. It certainly helps that the Panthers are coming off their most successful season of the last 40 years, but they are still in for a battle (or a series of battles).

So any chance the coaches get to spend time with those recruits is crucial, and while the basketball team doesn’t exactly present a good product, Tuesday night

Post-mortem on the Pete
I’m far from the first one to cross this line, and to be honest, I’m probably a couple years late. But I’m going to join the party and pile on because the Petersen Events Center…well, that old gray mare just ain’t what she used to be.

I’m not talking about attendance numbers. Those are easy enough to find and you can read them on a paper. I’m talking more about being in the building which, judging from those attendance numbers, not many of you have done this year.

I’ve been there, though, for almost every home game (shout out to Jim Hammett and Stephen Gertz for covering a few as well). This was, I think, my 17th season covering Pitt basketball home games and, like you, I’ve seen a lot over those years. I’ve seen the best Pitt basketball has to offer (even if that seems like it happened a long time ago) and I’ve seen the worst, too (which seems to be far more recent, unfortunately).

But it really hit me on Tuesday night. Duke was in town. The No. 4 team in the country. Mike Krzyzewski coming through for the final time. The last home game of the season.

Storylines galore, and the place was dead.

Eh, “dead’ is probably too harsh. It wasn’t dead. But compared to the Petersen Events Center crowds of old, it felt that way.

Listen, we can all talk about what it was like back in the day. But do you remember how it felt? Do you remember what it was like to be in that building when Georgetown or UConn or Syracuse or West Virginia came to town? Do you remember the buzz? Do you remember the crowd was turned up to 11? Do you remember how the place felt like it was going to explode at any given moment?

Do you remember what it was like that place exploded?

There were moments this season when it got loud. There was some great energy in a few of those games when Pitt made some big shots in crucial situations. People got excited. People got fired up. It felt good.

And it was still nothing like it was back in the day.

I can’t tell you how much I hate typing those words; I don’t want to be the kind of person who says those kinds of things. But those were my thoughts exactly on Tuesday night.

It really hit me pre-game. Walk into that building before a UConn game in the mid-2000’s and you could have cut the tension and the energy with a knife, and that was true before the ball even tipped.

Do you remember pre-game introductions? I have this vivid image in my head: after the Oakland Zoo would serenade the opposing coach with a chorus of “He sucks, too,” the lights would go down, the music would go up and the camera would go to the Pitt bench.

The focus was Carl Krauser, who would be sitting and screaming “Let’s go” into the camera until his name was called.

Do you remember that? I can see it as clear as the keyboard I’m typing on. One spotlight on Krauser, screaming his bloody head off while the whole building went bonkers.

Bonkers.

And the game hadn’t even started yet.

That’s what I was thinking of Tuesday night when Pitt welcomed Duke to town. It wasn’t pin-drop silent or anything like that, but by comparison, it might as well have been.

I know that we all know why the atmosphere has dipped like it has. We know the results of the last six years - or more - have sapped fan enthusiasm and interest, and unlike Pitt football, where the core fanbase is strong enough to still bring 40,000 when things are going bad, the Pitt basketball fanbase fades to black much quicker.

Not that I can blame them. Things have been pretty rough for more than half a decade.

But here’s the other thing: what was lost can be found again. I believe the atmosphere at the Pete could be built back pretty quickly. Get through a non-conference schedule with two or fewer losses, win a couple ACC games to start the conference schedule and then have a Saturday afternoon game against somebody like Syracuse or North Carolina or Duke, and you’ll have a good crowd full of fans looking to make it wild in the Pete again.

For now, though, all we have are memories.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What’s the ceiling at receiver?
Put this in the “recurring themes” file because it’s definitely going to come up again, but Pitt’s receivers look really, really good.

It’s not a huge group, by the numbers, but as I was watching the receivers work through drills at Wednesday’s practice, it struck me:

This group is going to be really good.

That’s not the first time I’ve had that thought, and an obvious factor here is Jordan Addison. When you have the reigning Biletnikoff winner on your roster, you’re starting the inning on second base, at least. But the rest of this crew is nothing to sneeze at.

I have the highest of expectations for Konata Mumpfield. That was the case as far back as December, when he became a legit possibility to land at Pitt out of the transfer market. Then, as I looked at more of his film and read more about him and talked to more people about him, I realized that Mumpfield is a bona fide Power Five receiver who was hidden at Akron. He can play at this level and he can shine at this level, and I even think he can be a No. 1 receiver at this level - if not for, you know, the reigning Biletnikoff winner lining up across from him.

Mumpfield isn’t the tallest receiver but he’s got good size, and he’s not the fastest receiver but he can move; what stands out the most, both from what I’ve seen and what I’ve been told, is how good he is at executing as a receiver. He’s a high-level route-runner who knows how to get open and make plays.

Then there’s Jared Wayne, who I would say is possibly the most underrated player on the team, although by the end of last season I’m not sure he was all that underrated. I think Pitt fans knew what they had in No. 5.

Wayne is a bigger receiver - either the tallest or second-tallest receiver on the team; I need to line him up next to Jaden Bradley - and last season, I think he really came to understand how to use his body. Strength is a part of his game and he was really good after the catch last season, and while I still tend to refer to him as a “possession receiver,” I think he’s a possession receiver who can break tackles and even get downfield to make plays.

He can also throw a pass or two, as we’ve seen.

I think that’s the starting three - Addison, Mumpfield and Wayne - when Pitt goes with 11 personnel which, given the talent of those three, I would probably use a lot. But then you get into the rotation with guys like Jaylon Barden, who has the speed to get downfield as a vertical threat, and Jaden Bradley, who has the size to beat smaller defenders, and you’ve got five receivers who can really challenge a defense.

So much of this is going to depend on the quarterback, of course, but if Slovis or Patti can be even somewhat above average in their reads and throws, I think their numbers will go through the roof because the receivers just look that good. I haven’t scouted the rest of the ACC, but I have to think this is one of the best groups in the conference.

What are the answers at running back?
I was running some numbers on Pitt’s running backs from this past season, which is a fancy way of saying I was re-familiarizing myself with their stats and looking at Pro Football Focus to see what the data indicated.

The first thing that stood out was the total carries. For as much as we talked about Pitt’s lack of commitment to the running game, the Panthers were actually third in ACC in rushing attempts last season.

Of course, the caveat there is that Pitt played 14 games; in terms of carries per game, Pitt ranked ninth in the league. And despite being third in the conference in total carries, the Panthers were also ninth in the ACC in total rushing yards (only three teams in the league averaged fewer rushing yards per game than Pitt).

So there’s that, but I don’t think any of those numbers are a surprise to anyone here. I did think this was interesting, though:

Pitt spread the ball around as much as anyone in the conference. Israel Abanikanda (123 carries, 651 yards, 7 touchdowns), Rodney Hammond (101 carries, 512 yards, 5 touchdowns) and Vincent Davis (142 carries, 593 yards, 4 touchdowns) all topped the century mark for carries last season; Wake Forest was the only other team in the league to have three players carry the ball 100 times.

I thought that was interesting.

The remaining question always will be how Pitt uses the three backs. For his part, new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti was noncommittal during his introductory press conference, and I can’t blame him: I watched this team all last season and I don’t know the answer.

On Wednesday, Pat Narduzzi said he thinks he has three starting running backs, although he also conceded that Abanikanda entered spring camp as the No. 1.

I think the answer is Abanikanda. Pro Football Focus gave him the second-highest rushing grade among ACC running backs who carried the ball at least 100 times in 2021 (although Hammond was fifth and Davis was seventh). But between his confusing usage and occasional injury, it was tough to get a real sense of whether he can be the No. 1.

He certainly looked like a No. 1 at Virginia Tech when he had 140 yards on 21 carries, and even in the ACC Championship Game when he ran for 55 yards on nine carries. But that win at Virginia Tech was the only time he had more than 15 carries in a game; he just didn’t seem to get enough opportunities.

That’s not on him; the coaches made some, um, curious decisions in how they deployed the backs last year. And Hammond certainly made the most of his opportunities. But the end result is that we don’t really know who the top guy is. We have our opinions, but ultimately, Davis has probably shown who he is - a serviceable back who fits well in certain situations - and the sample size is pretty small for Abanikanda and Hammond.

So we don’t really know.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt is not going to spend the money
I’m going to say this right off the bat and just get it out there:

Pitt isn’t paying Jeff Capel’s buyout.

Not this year.

And here’s the kicker:

They shouldn’t pay the buyout.

Not this year.

Okay, if any Pitt fans have maintained their composure and continued reading after that start to this final section of the column, let’s proceed.

Here’s the thing: Jeff Capel’s buyout is big. We all know this. There have been reports ranging from 15 to 17 million dollars after this season, and from what I’ve been told, it’s closer to the high end than the low end of that scale. That’s not surprising considering Capel has five years left after the season ends; that’s a lot of years to buy out, even if the coach has already been here four years.

It’s also a lot of money, and quite frankly, it’s money Pitt should not spend to make a coach go away. That’s not to say Capel’s performance lessens the merit of such discussion. He is currently 11-19 this season and 51-67 overall in his four seasons at Pitt with at least one and possibly two more losses coming. A 20-loss season is guaranteed at this point, and while Kevin Stallings’ second team hit that mark five years ago, it’s not exactly a common occurrence around these parts; Pitt’s last 20-loss season prior to Stallings’ 8-24 record in 2017-18 was in 1976-77, when Tim Grgurich guided the Panthers to a 6-21 season.

That was probably 60 words more than I needed to say this season has been bad. We all know it’s been bad; even worse, we all know that it wasn’t an improvement from last season, when Pitt went 10-12 and 6-10 in the ACC amid locker room strife and the general drama of Covid.

In the environment of college athletics, a performance like this sets the table for a coaching change. But this isn’t happening in a vacuum, and when the buyout money is as big as it is, the decision isn’t quite as easy.

Actually, I happen to think it is quite easy.

Easy to not pay that money. Easy to give Capel another year. Easy to wait for the buyout to come down and maybe even see if he can coach his way into an improvement.

That’s really what Capel needs: he needs to improve. He has to show some tangible sign of progress, some indication that the program is getting better. I think there have been reasons why the team has struggled over the last few seasons, but at some point, things have to improve. There has to be a step forward.

In the meantime - at least for the next year or so - Pitt should sit tight. Pitt will sit tight. I don’t know if they have the money to pay a buyout that approaches $20 million, nor do I know if they have the stomach to pay that kind of cash to make someone go away (and I really don’t think Capel is going to agree to the popular notion that the buyout might get negotiated down because, well, why would he?). I think there are better, more tangible things you can do with that money, if they have it, than pay someone not to coach.

Save the money, give it another year and see where things stand next spring.