The 3-2-1 Column: Preseason expectations, irrational optimism and more
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In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re thinking about preseason polls, expectations, irrational optimism, the biggest holes to fill and more with the start of training camp right around the corner.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
The preseason poll makes sense
I know that Pitt fans - and maybe Pitt’s head coach - are always up for a good slight, be it real or perceived.
To be fair, neither party usually has to look too far to find it. Whether it’s local media or national, there are plenty of shots taken on a fairly regular basis (when those entities deign to opine at all).
With that in mind, then, let’s consider the ACC media preseason poll, which was released this week. Clemson was the overwhelming favorite to win both the Atlantic Division and the conference as a whole; 111 of 164 voters picked the Tigers to win their division, and 103 have them winning the league.
That’s not a surprise. Nor is N.C. State landing as the second favorite to win the ACC with 38 votes. After all, anytime there’s a chance to vote for a Triangle Team, the opportunity must be seized.
The polling for the Coastal was also not a surprise. Miami took the paper crown there, earning 98 first-place votes from the 164 media members polled. Pitt came in second - the Panthers’ highest preseason poll placement since joining the ACC in 2013 and only the second time they’ve been picked to finish higher than fourth in the last nine seasons.
Now, we all know that Pitt has, for the most part, outperformed the expectations under Pat Narduzzi. The Panthers have beaten the preseason poll in five of Narduzzi’s seven seasons and finished lower than predicted only once (in 2016 Pitt was third in the preseason poll and finished fourth).
We also are all well aware that preseason polls, particularly of the conference variety, are fodder, something to get us talking while we wait for the next five weeks to roll by.
But I’ll say this:
I think it makes sense for the pollsters to have placed the Coastal as they did.
Look, Miami always gets some extra votes for being Miami. The Hurricanes have received first-place votes in each of the nine seasons since the ACC expanded. That they have won the Coastal just once in those nine seasons is another matter altogether; the U still gets votes for being the U.
And this year, the U seems to have something it hasn’t had in a long time:
A legitimate quarterback.
Granted, Tyler Van Dyke has only started nine games and lost his first two ACC starts. But his run over the final six games of the season, when he completed 66% of his passes for 2,194 yards, 20 touchdowns and three interceptions was really impressive.
So you’ve got Miami getting the standard Miami votes plus the added bonus of having a really good quarterback, and that makes the Hurricanes are a no-brainer to be the preseason favorite.
I will give the voters a lot of credit when it comes to Pitt, though. All too often, it seems easy for ACC media to brush off the “northern” schools, but acknowledging that the Panthers not only won the conference last year but also that they return most of the players who accomplished that feat is respectable.
We’ll see where everything lands in December, but I think Pitt being picked second with its only real wild card being at quarterback is a pretty good place to start. And if the first 11 games of the season more or less mirror the preseason poll, then the Panthers will have a chance to upend things in the finale in Coral Gables.
A history of expectations
Speaking of preseason polls, the Associated Press preseason poll probably won’t come out for a few more weeks, but I think it’s safe to assume that Pitt will be ranked somewhere in there. My guess is in the 15-20 range, but we’ll see what the voters think.
In the meantime, I thought we might look at Pitt’s history of being ranked in the preseason, because it’s pretty interesting. Not necessarily in a good way, but interesting nonetheless.
Pitt hasn’t been ranked in a preseason poll since 2010. Fresh off a 10-win season, the Panthers were ranked No. 15 that year, but they dropped out of the poll by Week Two in Dave Wannstedt’s swan song.
Two years prior, Pitt entered the season ranked No. 25 after closing 2007 with the 13-9 upset of West Virginia. A season-opening loss to Bowling Green dropped the Panthers out of the top 25, although they eventually climbed as high as No. 17 later in the year but finished on a two-game losing streak that left them unranked when the season ended.
Wannstedt’s first preseason ranking came in his first year and ended just as quickly as his other preseason rankings did: with a loss in the season opener.
So that’s one harbinger that you probably didn’t want to read today: Pitt has been ranked in the preseason three times in the last 18 years, and the Panthers lost the opener in each of those three seasons (Notre Dame in 2005, Bowling Green in 2008 and Utah in 2010).
Walt Harris’ Pitt teams were ranked in the preseason just once. That was 2003, when the Panthers were No. 10. They finished that season unranked, which is another trend you probably don’t want to read:
Pitt has been ranked in the preseason five times since 1990 (2010, 2008, 2005, 2003, 1990), and the Panthers finished each of those five seasons unranked.
In 1989, Pitt was ranked No. 20 in the preseason and finished at No. 17, so that’s a positive. But that team also climbed as high as No. 7 with a 5-0-1 record in late October before going 3-3 over the final six games.
And here we have one more trend you don’t want to read:
Since 1981, there has only been one season when Pitt’s final ranking was also its highest ranking that year.
But now for something positive. That one season was 2021.
Last year, Pitt entered the polls at No. 23 in mid-October and climbed to No. 17 before losing to Miami. That loss dropped the Panthers out, but they climbed back in after winning the next game and never looked back, steadily moving up to No. 13 - the spot they claimed after the ACC Championship Game and held onto even after the loss in the Peach Bowl.
The last time Pitt’s final ranking was also its highest ranking of the season happened in 1981, when Pitt beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and finished at No. 2.
Ultimately, here’s the thing that stands out to me the most. Pitt had a run from 1976-82 when the team was ranked in the preseason every year. The Panthers were also in the preseason polls again in 1984, but in the 37 seasons from 1985-2021, Pitt had a preseason ranking just six times.
Those six preseason rankings:
2010: 15
2008: 25
2005: 23
2003: 10
1990: 18
1989: 20
I already said that I think Pitt will be in the 15-20 range this year, so it won’t be the highest preseason ranking of the last 37 years. But I think it will be an accurate ranking that reflects the program Pat Narduzzi has built, the uncertainty about Pitt’s ceiling for this season (or maybe the team’s chances of reaching its ceiling) and the potential this team has.
Players I am irrationally high on
Let’s get nuts for a minute and talk about players who I have irrationally high expectations for - even if they haven’t done a ton to earn it just quite yet.
Like Solomon DeShields and Bangally Kamara. If you read my various reports and musings from spring camp, this shouldn’t be a surprise to you. And I’ll be the first to admit that I could be falling victim to what Malcolm Gladwell called the Warren Harding error (Skip Bayless might have called it the Dave Wannstedt error) of assuming somebody will be really good at their job because they look the part.
The thing is, Kamara and DeShields really look the part.
I still distinctly remember walking away from that interview, turning to Chris Carter and saying, “Damn, those dudes look like NFL players.”
They’re both 6’2” or so and pushing 230 pounds. That’s great size for a 4-3 outside linebacker, and DeShields and Kamara top off the size with legit athleticism. Put more simply, they’re big and they can run.
That sounds like a recipe for success, and I’m really intrigued to see what they can do.
I’m also really intrigued by Bub Means. The receiver transfer from Louisiana Tech caught 22 passes for 430 yards and two touchdowns last season. It’s not really his past production that intrigues me, though; after all, eight Pitt players caught more passes than he did in 2021, and five Panthers - including two tight ends - caught more touchdowns than he did.
No, what intrigues me about Means is his usage. He was a deep threat target for Louisiana Tech, averaging a depth of 17.5 yards per target, which is a higher average depth of target than any Pitt receiver had last season. 29.4% of his targets were 20 yards or more downfield, according to Pro Football Focus.
That’s something Pitt can use in the offense this season - a deep threat - and from everything I’ve heard, Means is a legit weapon. I still think Konata Mumpfield is going to be the man at receiver, I think Jared Wayne is one of the sure things on the team and I’m optimistic about Jaylon Barden and Jaden Bradley. But Means just might sneak up and make some huge plays to help Pitt win games this season.
Flipping back to defense, I’m really bullish on Dayon Hayes. I don’t think this one is quite as irrational, but the former Westinghouse product is entering his junior season and looking for a real breakout year. I think he gets it in 2022.
Pitt obviously has some proven veterans at defensive end. Habakkuk Baldonado is a preseason all-conference player and John Morgan and Deslin Alexandre are well-known entities. But as the fourth man in the rotation, I think Hayes is going to get a lot more than the 257 snaps he saw on defense last season, and I expect him to do a lot with the extra work. In fact, I might go so far as to predict that he’ll be second among the ends in tackles for loss and sacks. Or at least no worth than third behind Baldonado and Calijah Kancey. I think he can be that impactful.
And the fifth guy I’ll mention here is probably not a surprise to anyone who has listened to me talk about this team before. It’s Israel Abanikanda.
Wait. I’m picking Pitt’s leading rusher from last season as a player I am irrationally high on?
Yep. That’s right. Because I think the junior running back is set to have a huge season. I think he’s going to become Pitt’s first 1,000-yard rusher since 2018, and if he stays healthy, I expect him to put up 1,500+ yards of total offense along with scoring double-digit touchdowns.
Is it irrational to expect that from Abanikanda? It seems like the level of play he should be able to achieve as a junior. Perhaps the irrationality I’m perceiving is expecting him to not just have his best season yet - but also to be one of the top backs in the ACC. And the level of confidence I have about that might be borderline irrational.
I’m thinking big here, and I think all five of these guys will have big seasons.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
What are we missing?
Quarterback, quarterback, quarterback.
That’s all anyone wants to talk about. Including me. Especially me. It’s all quarterback, all the time here, and for good reason: that’s the biggest question mark facing this team, the key piece that could be the difference between an eight-win season and another ACC championship (or more).
So it’s not a surprise that a lot of the focus has been on Kedon Slovis and Nick Patti. But in thinking about that topic - again - this week, I started wondering about what I might be missing by devoting so much time to the quarterbacks.
That’s the big hole, but is it the only hole on the roster? Of course not. Every team enters a season with more than one hole to fill. That’s just the nature of a game where teams deal with eligibility limits while trying to put 22+ players on the field.
There’s always going to be turnover and there are always going to be starters to replace. So what other holes should we be thinking about heading into training camp besides quarterback?
Receiver is an obvious one. It’s not that Pitt doesn’t have talented players; it’s just that the Panthers lost the best receiver in the nation. That kind of loss is going to create a hole, and it’s not entirely clear how Pitt will fill it.
I’m really bullish on this group. I think Konata Mumpfield will be really good. I’ve been high on Jared Wayne for awhile. I think Jaylon Barden and Jaden Bradley have shown some real flashes. And I think Bub Means will surprise some people.
Will any of them fill Jordan Addison’s shoes? That’s tough to predict. But do they need to? I’m not sure about that either, since a more balanced offense might take some of the pressure off the receivers while also giving them more opportunities in the play-action game.
Elsewhere on the offense, there’s the matter of a second tight end. That might seem frivolous at best and fear-mongering at worst, but hey, Pitt’s second tight end scored four touchdowns last year, and while he’ll catch a lot of passes this season, Gavin Bartholomew can’t do it all.
The one caveat here is that a player like Daniel Carter could step into more of an H-back/fullback role and become more involved in the passing game that way. Still, it’s an unknown.
The biggest holes on defense are at outside linebacker. Yes, Pitt has to replace Damarri Mathis, too, but the Panthers have a bunch of guys at cornerback who have logged a bunch of snaps, so I’m not as worried about that.
The outside linebackers, though - those spots need some attention. I’m as bullish as anyone and possibly more bullish than anyone about Solomon DeShields and Bangally Kamara (as I mentioned earlier), but those guys are still lacking in experience; they need to actually do it before we can be sold on them.
Ditto for the transfers at linebacker, Shayne Simon and Tylar Wiltz. Simon comes from Notre Dame, which is a nice pedigree, but he didn’t really produce a whole lot out there. Wiltz did produced a whole lot at Missouri State, but it’s Missouri State, and the jump from FCS to Power Five can be a big one.
The need for outside linebackers to step up is probably the biggest question mark, at least in terms of personnel. And, aside from quarterback, it’s probably the open position(s) that can have the most significant impact on the success of the team. The defensive line should be really good again, the secondary brings back plenty and SirVocea Dennis is a sure thing at middle linebacker. But the outside linebackers have a lot of responsibilities in this defensive scheme; sometimes errors that appear to be on the safeties are actually a result of miscues at linebacker. So the linebackers will have to step up in a hurry.
And the final big hole is punter. Kirk Christodoulou is gone and Sam Vander Haar is the heir apparent. Vander Haar’s performance this spring seemed to leave something to be desired, but he has had several months to iron out the issues. Field position is always at a premium, and Pitt can’t afford to give Tennessee or the various ACC offenses it will face any advantage in that department.
What’s the follow-up?
First things last here, because this is really the big topic, the biggest question facing Pitt this season. All of the other question marks and personnel changes and holes - all of that is under the umbrella of the One Big Question. It’s a question for Pat Narduzzi, specifically, and it’s the biggest question of 2022:
What do you do for a follow-up?
You won 11 games. You won the ACC. You made a New Year’s Six bowl and finished in the top 15.
Now what?
Because one successful season where you break through to the next level is all well and good. But the next season is the one that determines whether that successful season was a fluke or a foundation, a one-off or an indicator of how strong the program truly is.
Yes, there has been attrition and turnover. Yes, the team lost its two best players from last season’s breakthrough campaign. But it’s college football. There will always be attrition, there will always be turnover, there will always be personnel holes to fill. That’s part of the deal. How you fill those holes and follow the successful season is the real story.
Because the real story isn’t the season; it’s the program. How strong of a program have you built? That question is answered not by what you do in one year; it’s answered by what you do over a period of time. The best programs don’t have one breakthrough season and then return to their previous mediocrity. They follow the breakthrough season with similar success over a sustained period of time.
When Clemson finally broke through with a 10-win season in 2011, the Tigers followed it with back-to-back 11-win campaigns and haven’t won fewer than 10 since. And when the real breakthrough came with an appearance in the national title game in 2015, Dabo Swinney’s crew followed it up with a national championship win the following year.
I’m not saying Pitt has to win a national championship this season. But if the program is truly strong, if the last eight years have been spent building something tangible, then there should be enough talent and depth in the program to carry last season’s success over to 2022.
Sure, Pitt lost a Heisman Trophy finalist and a Biletnikoff Award winner. But the Panthers also return a whole lot from that team and added some should-be-good pieces to fill in the holes.
2022, even more than 2021, will tell the tale on what Pat Narduzzi has built at Pitt. Will it be a return to eight wins? Or a return to Charlotte?
ONE PREDICTION
Pitt’s going to have to win some shootouts
This is less a prediction and more an opportunity to bring up one other topic I’ve been thinking about a lot.
It’s a relevant one, because it touches on several topics we’ve discussed a lot this summer, from Frank Cignetti’s influence to the need for a good-or-better performance from the quarterback, from the caliber of opponents on the schedule to the opportunity to repeat last season’s success. As I think about all of those things, one question keeps coming up.
Can the Panthers win a shootout?
They did last season. I would contend that Pitt won shootouts against Tennessee and Virginia, and there were elements of a shootout in the wins over North Carolina (at least in terms of going to overtime) and Wake Forest (at least in the way the game started).
Of course, the Panthers also lost shootouts to Western Michigan and Miami, but I think that those types of games - shootouts, however you want to define them - can often be 50/50 propositions, so going 2-2 in those situations is a pretty solid result. And given how the results against Tennessee and Virginia impacted Pitt’s overall record and place in the Coastal, those wins loom pretty large.
I really don’t know if previous Pitt teams could have pulled off those wins. I don’t know if Pitt 2020 or 2019 could have scored 41 to win the game at Tennessee or 48 to beat Virginia. The 2020 Panthers scored 30 or more just four times in 10 games against FBS opponents. The 2019 team topped 30 four times in 13 games.
Last year’s team scored more than 30 in 12 of its 14 games, scored more than 40 eight times and hit the 50-point plateau four times.
I don’t think it’s a stretch to say there’s a connection between that kind of offensive output and the results of the season.
So we come back to the question: Can the 2022 team do that? Or at least something close to it?
The answer will come down to a variety of factors, mostly centered around the game plans and in-game play-calling of Frank Cignetti and the ability of Kedon Slovis to execute those game plans and play calls.
Granted, Pitt faced some dog offensive teams last season. Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Syracuse and Duke all finished outside the top 90 in scoring in 2021; those teams are all back on the schedule this year, of course, as well as West Virginia, who finished No. 88 in 2021 after averaging 25.1 points per game.
But Pitt’s 2022 schedule also features six teams that averaged at least 30 points per game last season in Tennessee, Miami, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina and Western Michigan. And four of those six teams have returning starters at quarterback, which makes them a threat to do it again.
That means the Panthers are going to have to score. Whether they are built to do so, both in terms of personnel (primarily quarterback) and philosophy (primarily the offensive coordinator) remains to be seen.