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In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re talking about losses, uncertainties, sure things and more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

That’s a big loss
It’s old news by now, but it’s still worth discussing.

Shortly after this column was published last week, Pat Narduzzi announced that Rashad Weaver will miss the 2019 season with an ACL injury. It would seem that the news invalidated much of what I said about the defense in last week’s column, but on the contrary, I think the points I made about Weaver’s importance only magnify the significance of his absence.

Weaver figured to be Pitt’s defensive lineman and potentially one of the Panthers’ best defenders and maybe best overall players in 2019. He led the team in tackles for loss, sacks and forced fumbles last season and his 6.5 sacks rank No. 3 among returning players in the ACC.

There was every reason to believe he would take a bit step forward in his redshirt junior season, potentially - or maybe even likely - pushing the envelope on double-digit sacks and generally playing like one of the best defensive ends in the conference.

I still think he’ll do that when he returns from this injury next season, but that’s a year from now; what’s more relevant, more pressing and more urgent is what happens right now. And the current situation as it stands without Weaver is a big part of why his injury is such a big deal.

Because this injury is a double-whammy: Pitt loses a very good player and doesn’t have a lot of proven players to replace him with. Patrick Jones is already slated to step into the other starting defensive end spot, but he’s the only other end on the team with any real experience (he played as the No. 3 DE last season). After that, it’s really up in the air.

Redshirt sophomore Deslin Alexandre is the favorite to win Weaver’s vacated spot. Pat Narduzzi said that Alexandre responded well to the opportunity; the day after Weaver’s injury was announced, Pitt held a scrimmage and Alexandre was, according to the head coach, one of the standouts.

So that’s good. But a solid scrimmage performance is one thing; actual playing experience is another, and Alexandre just doesn’t have much of it. 75 whole snaps on defense last season, according to Pro Football Focus. There’s going to be a learning curve for Alexandre and the guys behind him, because that’s the other impact of Weaver’s injury:

Everybody moves up a spot on the depth chart. It’s not just Alexandre going from No. 3 to a starting job. It’s also John Morgan moving from No. 4 to No. 3 and another end - probably Habakkuk Baldonado, who played a couple special teams snaps last season - moving from off the two-deep to the No. 4 spot.

Defensive end wasn’t a deep position to begin with, at least in terms of experience, and it got a whole lot thinner with Weaver’s injury.

Now, does one injury to one player sink a season? No. Weaver won’t be the difference between 8-4 and 4-8. But I do think he makes enough of an impact and that the dropoff is considerable enough that his absence will, in all likelihood, cost Pitt a game this season. I think he’s worth a win.

There aren’t many more important
Weaver’s injury sparked a conversation on the Monday podcast and the message boards about the value of certain players on the team.

Specifically, we asked this question:

Who are the top three players Pitt could least afford to lose from the 2019 roster?

When I say “2019 roster,” I’m talking about the roster that entered training camp - which is to say, the roster that included Weaver, since I’m including him on my list of the top three guys Pitt could least afford to lose.

He’s No. 2 for me, due to that double-whammy of his talent and the lack of experience behind him. He’s going to be tough to replace and plays a position where Pitt needs some real, high-end production this season.

At No. 3 on the list of players Pitt could least afford to lose, I put Jimmy Morrissey. This is actually an easy one to put on the list because we have actual evidence of what Pitt’s offensive line looks like without Morrissey. We saw what happened to the line in the Miami, Clemson and Stanford games after Morrissey got hurt at Wake Forest.

Would the Panthers have beaten Clemson with Morrissey? Probably not. And I don’t know if they’d beat Stanford; maybe, maybe not. But a few people who are smart about these things have told me that Pitt’s chances at Miami would have increased considerably.

That’s partially due to physical ability and partially due to Morrissey’s ability to recognize defensive fronts and make proper checks and calls. There was a drop-off from Morrissey to Connor Dintino in that regard, and it caused major problems for Pitt’s offense that day.

There’s no doubt that Pitt’s offensive line took a big step back with Morrissey out. Offensive line coach Dave Borbely told me on Media Day that it “was a huge deal” to lose Morrissey, and then elaborated on the situation as follows:

“Jim’s the glue that holds that thing together, mentally and physically. He’ll probably be the best center in the ACC. Jim brings a certain ‘it’ factor in terms of his leadership and his knowledge. People don’t realize how big a deal that is when you lose your center; it’s probably the most underrated position. It’s like, ‘Hey, just put your second center in.’ Your second center usually stinks. And most people’s do, because if he was any good, he’d be playing one of the guard spots.”

Now, to that last point, I think Borbely is more or less accurate. But I will say that I’ve heard good things about former Butler standout Jake Kradel, who is Morrissey’s backup at center. Ideally he won’t have to play until 2021, but there is optimism about his potential, and that’s the reason I put Morrissey at No. 3 on this list as opposed to No. 2 or No. 1.

And then there’s the top spot, and for that one, I’m sticking with the No. 1 position on the team:

Holder.

Just kidding, although the guy I pegged for the No. 1 player Pitt could least afford to lose actually could find himself working as the holder this season.

It’s Kenny Pickett, of course.

Say what you want about Pickett’s performance in 2018 - and there is plenty to say - but he’s still probably the best option this team has at quarterback this season. I’m as impressed as anyone with Davis Beville, but the reality is, Pitt’s season will hang largely on Pickett’s shoulders. He’s the starting quarterback because he gives the Panthers the best chance to win this year. I think the drop-off from him to a backup, whether it’s Jeff George Jr. or Nick Patti or Davis Beville, is considerable enough that it would be pretty catastrophic if something forced Pickett off the field.

I happen to be of the mind that Pickett will play better this season than he did a year ago, and I believe that for a variety of reasons, including Mark Whipple and primarily the experience Pickett has after a year as a starter. And that’s something he has that the rest of the group doesn’t.

Nothing left to do but wait, wait, wait…
Preseason is the time for preseason previews, so I’ve been on a few radio shows around the ACC lately talking about Pitt in 2019. Naturally, some version of this question comes up:

“What do you expect for Pitt this season?”

And…I don’t have an answer. I really don’t. I almost laugh at this point because I have no earthly idea what this team is going to do this season.

I should revise that statement. I do have a thought or two on what the defense will be. Even with the loss of Weaver, I think there’s enough talent and experience in the group to be pretty good. It should be Pat Narduzzi’s best defense yet.

The offense, though…

People keep asking me if this offense is going to improve. If Pickett is going to get better. If they’re going to replace Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall. If they’re going to find new offensive linemen. If they’re going to throw to the tight end. If they’re going to have any games with single-digit passing yardage.

And I. Just. Don’t. Know.

If you look at the empirical evidence, it’s not great. A team that won the division with a power running game led by two 1,000-yard backs lost both of those players plus four of the five offensive linemen. There was only one strength in Pitt’s offense last season and that strength has been pretty much eliminated. Or, at least, the players behind that strength are no longer on the team.

As for reasons for optimism, you’ve got a pair of very good receivers. That’s a nice start and they produced in limited opportunities last season. Beyond that, there’s not much in the way of tangible things you can build on.

Mark Whipple could improve the passing game. Kenny Pickett could grow from his year of experience. The apparent improved athleticism of the new offensive linemen could offset the lack of experience. The running backs could have enough talent to step in and lead an effective ground attack.

Could. Could. Could. Could.

That’s not as reassuring as “Will. Will. Will. Will.” would be.

(As an aside, it occurs to me that the Pirates would have been a bit more intellectually honest if they had gone with “We Could” as a team slogan that one year rather than “We Will,” but that’s for another day.)

Look, I think it’s perfectly fine to have high expectations for this offense. I personally expect it to improve. I expect the running game to be effective - maybe not “two 1,000-yard rushers” effective, but effective nonetheless - and I expect Pickett to take a step forward.

But I also understand completely that there is no factual basis for those expectations. There really isn’t. If we’re sharing those expectations, the only things we have to go on are UMass box scores and the Miami game two years ago. That’s it.

So we wait. We wait for August 31 and every Saturday (plus a random Friday and a standard Thursday) after that, when we can finally see the impact the Whipple, the improvement of Pickett, the development of the offensive line and the emergence of the running backs.

We wait.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Who isn’t a question mark?
Okay, we’ll take a step back from uncertainty for a second, because that doesn’t define this whole team. It doesn’t even define the whole offense, in fact. I would contend that Pitt’s receivers are, in spite of the various levels of adversity facing them, actually quite good.

Receiver coach Chris Beatty told me this week he thinks the top duo of Maurice Ffrench and Taysir Mack “can be as good as any group in the conference,” and I don’t think that’s just lip service: Ffrench was a 10-touchdown scorer who was more explosive than any player on the team last season and Mack averaged a startling 22.3 yards per reception.

The problem for those two is that they were starved for opportunities. I wrote about this earlier in the week: Pitt’s top three receivers last season - Ffrench, Mack and Rafael Araujo-Lopes - saw an average of 11.6 passes per game.

All three of them combined - less than 12 passes per game.

That’s criminal.

All three of those receivers could make plays and they showed it when they had the opportunity. To not give them more opportunities was a big part of the reason Pitt lost some of the games it lost. With more targets, Ffrench and Mack should have good, productive seasons this year.

That’s probably it for the offense, but there are a few spots that you should feel pretty good about on defense. The first is up front at defensive tackle: with Keyshon Camp, Amir Watts and Jaylen Twyman, Pitt’s got probably its best collection of tackles since…I’m not sure when. Aaron Donald obviously stood out as an individual player, but in terms of having depth and talent, this year’s group is really good.

Twyman, in particular, is the one getting all the praise. Watts needs to produce at a higher level more consistently and Camp needs to stay healthy, but Twyman has been, by all accounts, one of the stars of training camp. He looks like he is poised for a big redshirt sophomore season.

And then, of course, is the secondary. You knew this one was coming. Pitt’s defensive backs make up probably the strongest collection of players on the team, with at least four guys who seem to have legitimate pro potential, assuming everything stays on track.

Paris Ford is the big wild card back there. He needs to play up to his considerable potential, and if he does, the ceiling is very, very high for the secondary.

Who has the best chance of shedding the question mark?
When you look at the question marks on the team, well, it’s pretty much every position not mentioned in the last section. Quarterback. Running back. Tight end. Offensive line. Defensive end. Linebackers. They’re all question marks heading into the season.

So which of them can turn it around? Which can turn into one of the team’s “sure things”?

I like this group of linebackers. They don’t have a ton of experience as a whole, but they do have a fair amount with Saleem Brightwell and Elias Reynolds, who just happen to be the top two middle linebackers. If you’re going to have experience, it’s pretty good to have it in the middle.

And on the outside, the group doesn’t have a ton of experience but it does seem to have more speed and athleticism. I’m one who thinks that Seun Idowu and Elijah Zeise get a bit overlooked in this regard, but when you look at Phil Campbell and Cam Bright and Chase Pine and Kylan Johnson, it’s an athletic group with some impressive physical attributes.

If those guys can get used to playing every snap and get comfortable on the field, I think they’ve got the ability to make a positive impact. Maybe even that long sought-after “Game-Changing Ability.”

Physical tools have me very intrigued with the offensive line, too. I know they’re replacing four starters, but to a man, each of this year’s projected starters look more athletic than the guys they’re replacing (save for Nolan Ulizio; I haven’t seen enough of him yet to render a judgment).

Dave Borbely said on Media Day that it can take a few games for an offensive line to really gel and I’ll certainly defer to his opinion on that, but I think these guys have a chance to get out to a quick start. Virginia won’t be an easy defense to handle, but if they can get over the jitters, rely on their coaching and use the physical skills they have, I think they can turn a corner sooner rather than later.

And, of course, if those guys up front hit their stride, that’s going to go a long way in getting the quarterback and the running backs out of the “question mark” territory.

JUST ONE MORE THING

Picking up a thread from a previous section, as well as something I wrote about this week…

On Monday, I took a deep dive into target numbers for Pitt’s receivers in 2018. I wanted to see how the volume for Rafael Araujo-Lopes, Taysir Mack and Maurice Ffrench compared to the rest of the ACC.

Now, sit down for this because you’ll be shocked, but here’s what I found:

They didn’t get the ball thrown to them very much.

Unbelievable, right?

I compared the target numbers for those three receivers to the target numbers for the top three receivers on every other team in the conference, and just in total targets, Pitt ranked No. 11. But total targets hides the fact that the Panthers played more games than any one other than Clemson, so when you adjust for targets-per-game, Pitt’s trio ranked dead last.

Well, not really dead last. The Panthers were still ahead of Georgia Tech. So they were dead last among teams that actually claimed to have the forward pass as part of their offense, although there were certainly plenty of times last season when Pitt couldn’t legitimately make that claim.

But I digress. No team in the ACC, other than the Fighting Paul Johnsons, threw to its top three receivers less than Pitt did last season. And sure, the Panthers have fewer total passing attempts than any non-GT team in the league despite playing 14 games, and sure, they had a great rushing attack that carried the offense. But none of that excuses the total lack of opportunities for Mack, Ffrench and Araujo-Lopes.

I think I’ve been shouting this from the rooftops since Mark Whipple was hired:

The biggest thing he has to do is find a way to get the ball to the playmakers with more regularity. Ffrench and Mack can both make things happen with the ball in their hands. We saw that often enough last year to know it is true. Ffrench has the ability to top 2,000 all-purpose yards this season. I really believe that - he just has to get the ball. Mack may not be able to average 22 yards per reception again, but he can make plays down the field - he just has to get the ball.

It would be a shame if Pitt wastes these two talents. I think they have the ability to put up some really good numbers as a pass-catching tandem, maybe rivaling 2013 when Devin Street and Tyler Boyd combined for 2,028 yards and 14 touchdowns on 136 catches.

The potential and the talent is there. Those guys are sure things. Now Whipple, Pickett, Borbely and the offensive line have to do their jobs.