MORE COVERAGE FROM PANTHER-LAIR.COM - What Pat Narduzzi expects from Virginia Tech, plus the latest on the quarterback situation | PODCAST: Recruiting misses, UNC and Virginia Tech, hoops and more | Freshman WR Kenny Johnson Is starting to emerge as a playmaker | How many winnable games are on Pitt's remaining schedule? | Video and transcript: Capel's first press conference previews the 2023-24 season | Film review: Where did Pitt's defense struggle against North Carolina?
In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about the injury bug, the better option at quarterback, which weapons Pitt should prioritize and a lot more.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
Injuries are piling up
Injuries are part of football, and nobody wants to hear about how you lost this player or that player, because the reality is, everybody has injuries.
Nobody’s going to feel sorry for any team that is suffering from injuries, because they’ve all got them. And if Utah can go 4-0 without Cam Rising, then there’s not a lot of pity for teams that are struggling to win games with less-impactful injuries than that.
All that said, Pitt is definitely going through it with injuries right now.
By the end of the Panthers’ loss to North Carolina on Saturday night, they were playing without their starting quarterback, their starting running back, three starting offensive linemen (if you back-date that to the projected lineup in training camp) and a starting linebacker.
You know, when I list it like that, it somehow doesn’t seem all that bad. But it’s definitely not good, and it got worse on Monday when Pat Narduzzi announced that redshirt senior offensive tackle Matt Goncalves would miss the remainder of the season due to an injury he suffered in the loss at West Virginia.
A captain who is arguably Pitt’s best offensive lineman, Goncalves started the first three games at the all-important position of left tackle and didn’t allow a sack in any of them, according to Pro Football Focus.
In fact, PFF’s charting indicates that Goncalves didn’t allow a single sack in 399 pass-blocking snaps last season. Nor did he give up a sack during the 150 pass-blocking snaps he played in 2020. The only time in his career that Goncalves allowed a sack was 2021; he gave up three that year - one against North Carolina, one in the ACC Championship Game against Wake Forest and one in the Peach Bowl against Michigan State.
PFF may or may not be the most accurate source of football analytics and data, but we’re going to carve those numbers in stone, because Goncalves really might be that good.
And now Pitt is going to play the rest of the season without him.
It’s a blow to an offensive line that was already down one projected starter - guard Ryan Jacoby was lost for the season with a training camp injury - and was missing one more starter in the UNC game when center Jake Kradel was out.
Add in quarterback Phil Jurkovec’s halftime departure and Rodney Hammond’s late injury on Saturday night, as well as Bangally Kamara’s DNP due to an injury from the WVU game, and you’ve got some banged-up Panthers.
That’s part of the game, of course, and “next man up” is one of football’s chief rallying cries. And those injuries don’t excuse the losses to Cincinnati and West Virginia (North Carolina didn’t have anything to do with injuries, in my opinion; the only injury that was going to impact that game would be an injury to Drake Maye).
Pitt’s current situation probably isn’t even all that much worse than what the team has endured in previous years. Last season, they were down a bunch of starting offensive linemen, too. They even had some injuries during the ACC championship season in 2021. So no one’s pouring one out for Pitt here, and the Pitt coaches probably aren’t spending too much time feeling sorry for themselves.
These things happen. And right now, they’re happening to Pitt.
Prioritize the weapons
I’ll admit it (as I have before).
I get hung up on certain topics.
To some extent, I can’t help it. I record five Morning Pitt videos per week, plus the Wednesday night live show with Jim and the post-game show during the season. I write these columns every other week. And I post on the board pretty often.
At some point, you run out of new things to say. Or, you just like some of the things you have to say, so you put them in all the different outlets.
And one of my big ones this week is the idea that Pitt needs to identify and prioritize its weapons on offense.
Put another way, Rodney Hammond, Konata Mumpfield and Gavin Bartholomew need to get the ball a lot of the time. Maybe all the time.
This isn’t to say they’re spreading the ball around too much. The North Carolina game was a considerable departure in terms of running back touches; after the three Pitt running backs - Hammond, C’Bo Flemister and Daniel Carter - had six carries each against Cincinnati, the emphasis shifted to Hammond at West Virginia (14 carries for him, 6 for Flemister and 4 for Carter).
This past week, it got even more drastic: 14 carries for Hammond and one each for Flemister and Carter.
One of my other themes this week is that Pitt needs to run the ball more, and those numbers - 16 total carries for the running backs - illustrate that, but that’s not what I’m hear to talk about (not right now, at least; I’ll get to the volume question in a minute).
Right now, I’m here to say that the emphasis on Hammond has to continue. And Mumpfield and Bartholomew, too. Those three have shown themselves to be the most reliable offensive skill players on the team. They have produced in almost every instance that they were called upon. And they have shown an ability to turn something into something better.
Much like Hammond isn’t exactly being ignored, especially lately, so too is Mumpfield seeing a lot of passes. He leads the team in targets with 26, and that lead has been built in the last two games when he saw 17 total targets (six at WVU, 11 against UNC) after Bub Means was targeted 15 times in the first two games. The emphasis needs to stay on Mumpfield.
And you probably already know what I think about Bartholomew. He has been targeted 12 times and caught nine of those targets for 216 yards and one touchdown. His yardage ranks No. 9 nationally among tight ends, according to Pro Football Focus, and seven of the eight guys ahead of him have all seen at least 22 targets this season.
As such, his average of 24 yards per reception leads all tight ends in the nation (minimum eight passing targets).
What I’m saying is, El Barto needs to get more than three targets per game. This offense is in crisis mode right now, and the best thing an offense can do to get out of crisis mode is find the playmakers and focus on them.
Yes, I want to see Means get it together and Daejon Reynolds has shown some promise and Kenny Johnson looks like he can be a stud, but right now, they need to move the ball and score, and three guys give them the best chance to do so:
6, 9 and 86.
The weight of expectations
“Now we’re dealing with something a little bit different that we haven’t dealt with or had to deal with, which are expectations because of what we did last year.”
Jeff Capel, Blake Hinson and Federiko Federiko spoke to the media on Wednesday, providing a nice sidetrack from the depths of football despair, if only for a day or two, so I thought we could talk about Pitt hoops for a minute.
The above quote came from Capel, who was asked which is more difficult: building a program to success or sustaining that success.
“It’s really, really hard to do both,” he said, and there’s certainly no doubt that the first part - the building-up - was a challenge. I’m not going to recap what Capel’s first four seasons looked like, and I think you’ll appreciate my restraint in that regard. Suffice to say, it was bad.
Then things turned around last season. There’s a variety of reasons why, but it’s really interesting to me to compare the tenor of things around this time last year versus where they are right now.
I actually have a very specific example. On the podcast platform I use for the Morning Pitt audio podcasts, there’s a bar where I type the title of the episode. Every episode follows the same title format:
The Morning Pitt: X/XX/XXXX (date) - Episode topics
When I started typing the title for Thursday’s episode - the episode that would be titled “The Morning Pitt: 9/28/2023” - an auto-complete option came up for something I had previously typed there:
“The Morning Pitt: 9/28/2022 - Will Capel’s new approach work?”
You can actually watch that episode right here, although you already know the answer to the question. But it’s an interesting contrast, isn’t it? One year ago from yesterday, we were questioning whether this “new approach” - veteran guards and shooters, primarily - would work.
Now we know that it did work, and we’re wondering what he’s going to do for a follow-up.
I think Capel is wondering, too. I know he likes his team. I know the staff would have liked to add another veteran guard, but we’ve spent enough time haggling over that topic that we can set it aside and focus on what the coaches do like about the roster:
Exciting young guards, an increase in athleticism on the wing, post players entering the season with the benefit of experience and growth. Oh, and Blake Hinson. That’s a good guy to have on your team.
And just as much as any of that, the coaches like the culture. They like having veteran players who were a part of last year’s success and they like having young players who appear to be willing to absorb as much of that experience as possible. They like what they’ve seen from the team in its interactions over the summer and on the trip to Spain. They like how the group is coming together, and they feel like that gives them a good chance to have a cohesive unit with chemistry heading into the season.
It took a long time to get to last year’s success.
By Capel’s own admission, it might be just as difficult to repeat that success.
But last season, Pitt was playing with the pressure of four disappointing seasons. This year, it will be the pressure of expectations.
Different pressures, to be sure. But at least this year’s pressure is a positive one.
“That’s great. That’s exciting. I think our guys are up for the challenge, we’re up for the challenge. It’s something we’ve talked about. We’ve been very open and honest and transparent with our guys about that, and we’re excited to see what steps we take.”
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
Is the season lost?
Seriously? What idiot writes these questions?
As if anyone on this site has any doubt about what my response to this is going to be. I have been, on multiple occasions and not without just cause, compared to the meme of a dog drinking coffee in the middle of a fire saying “This is fine.”
Do you really have any doubt about what I’m going to say here?
Probably not, and you’re probably right. But here goes anyway.
No, the season is not lost.
It’s in a bad spot - as bad a spot as we’ve seen under Pat Narduzzi, although there’s some competition for that unglamorous title. The last 1-3 start Pitt has had with Narduzzi - the only 1-3 start Pitt has had with Narduzzi - was in 2017. You remember that year: the Panthers opened with an FCS win and then lost to a Big 12 team at home and an archival on the road before dropping the ACC opener.
Weird how that’s kind of familiar.
The season didn’t really improve after that. Beating Rice wasn’t very exciting, and back-to-back wins against Duke and Virginia didn’t really overcome the stench of the losses to N.C. State, Syracuse, North Carolina and Virginia Tech. Only a season-ending upset was able to provide some glimmer of hope, and if we’re playing out this parallel between 2017 and 2023, I don’t know if Duke is going to still be undefeated by the time the Panthers travel to Durham for the regular-season finale.
(But if the Blue Devils are 11-0 at that point, they’re going to be ranked very, very high - high enough that they should be worried about playing a Pitt team suffering through a losing season. Come to think of it, if Duke really does have high aspirations for this season, Mike Elko and company should be rooting for Pitt to win as many games as possible. There’s nothing scarier for the Blue Devils than the prospect of a four-win Pitt team coming to town in the finale. But I digress.)
Anyway, that 2017 season finished with Pitt at 5-7, the worst record under Narduzzi and unquestionably the worst season under Narduzzi.
After this 1-3 start, it feels like we’re heading for something similar in 2023, which is a bummer in Year Nine.
I imagine even Narduzzi would tell you that.
But the season’s not lost. I’m going to hold onto that. Yes, some of the goals are lost and some new - less impressive - goals have replaced them. Now, it’s not about getting to double-digit wins and competing for the ACC; it’s about breaking even at .500 and making a bowl.
That’s another bummer in Year Nine. I imagine Narduzzi would tell you that, too.
There’s still something to salvage, though. A lot of things. There are young players who can grow up over the course of the season and provide hope for the future. That’s a big one. There are also plenty of opportunities for Pitt to get some wins on this schedule, and maybe even some wins that end up changing the perception of the season.
I’m not even talking about Notre Dame and Florida State, the two big ones on the slate. I’m talking about the opponents that are a notch below those but currently undefeated:
Louisville, Syracuse and Duke
Depending on your perspective, beating those teams may or may not be impressive. But all three are 4-0 right now. All three seem to be doing some good things. And all three should provide an opportunity for Pitt.
For starters, Narduzzi has never lost to Duke, and he is 7-1 against Syracuse (the lone loss coming in that 2017 season). He’s 2-1 against Louisville after losing to the Cardinals last year, and given the way they are playing under first-year head coach Jeff Brohm, that squad might provide the biggest challenge of the three we’re discussing.
And while Pitt has its issues, I also think the Panthers should beat Virginia Tech and Boston College, and Wake Forest seems to be showing some warts; I think Pitt should have a good shot there.
Let’s say that happens; let’s say that Pitt beats Virginia Tech, Boston College and Wake Forest. That would put the Panthers at four wins. Then they would just need to go 2-1 against the Syracuse/Duke/Louisville block to get bowl-eligible.
I think that’s plausible. Doable, even, and maybe probable depending on how the team progresses. I don’t think we’ve seen a finished product for this year’s Panthers yet. If they can keep improving, they should be able to piece together six wins.
I know it’s not warm-and-fuzzy to talk about trying to get to a bowl, but after a 1-3 start, the goals change. That’s where Pitt is right now, and while everything we’ve seen this month is inevitably part of the story of the season, that story hasn’t been finished yet.
Was Veilleux better?
Fans were clamoring for it, and they got it on Saturday night.
Phil Jurkovec was out. Christian Veilleux was in.
For one pass, it was good. Veilleux hit Daejon Reynolds for 15 yards to give Ben Sauls a shot at a 58-yard field goal at the end of the first half.
The rest of the way? Veilleux went 6-of-17 for 70 yards and two interceptions.
Not great.
So, now that you saw Veilleux - now that you saw both quarterbacks in the same game - how do they compare?
The numbers don’t tell the full story, but they do favor Jurkovec: 11-of-15, 109 yards, no interceptions. Considering Jurkovec got 21 yards on a pass to Konata Mumpfield, 30 on one to Gavin Bartholomew and 29 on another to Bartholomew, that leaves about 29 yards on the other eight completions.
Not exactly stretching the field. But you know what? They don’t need to stretch the field right now. They just need to complete passes.
Set that aside for a second, though, and look at the biggest issue:
Turnovers.
Pitt simply can’t afford to turn the ball over right now. I talked about this earlier in the week on an episode of The Morning Pitt. This team doesn’t have an offense that is built to play from behind, so they cannot give up possessions with interceptions that lead to short fields. They have to protect the football, even if that means playing ultra-conservative, at least until their quarterbacks show that they’re not going to throw interceptions.
Jurkovec had been pretty good about that. He got through the first two games without any interceptions before bombing out at West Virginia with three picks. He bounced back a bit, though, throwing 15 passes without an interception against UNC.
Veilleux has thrown 27 passes this season and two of them were intercepted.
So Jurkovec is averaging one interception for every 30 pass attempts; Veilleux is averaging one for every 13.5 attempts.
To me, that settles it right there. I know there’s more to it, and I know the stink of the performance in Morgantown isn’t getting washed off Jurkovec’s jersey anytime soon. But I think that when you’re looking for separation between Jurkovec and Veilleux, neither one has a very good completion percentage (51.1 for Jurkovec; 44.4 for Veilleux), neither one has a great yards per attempt (6.5 for Jurkovec; 5.4 for Veilleux); and neither one has really done a great job of getting the ball into the end zone (one touchdown for every 22.5 attempts from Jurkovec; one for every 27 attempts from Veilleux).
All of those stats are pretty bad and not exactly indicative of anybody playing championship-caliber football at the most important position on the field. But that’s just what the situation is this year, and that’s what Pitt is going to deal with at quarterback for the next two months.
So how to separate them?
Find the guy who makes fewer mistakes. Find the guy who is less likely to put the team in jeopardy. Right now, that’s Jurkovec.
I’m not giving up on Veilleux. He was brought here with years of eligibility remaining and the plan/hope was that he would be the guy for the future. Maybe that’s still how it will work out.
But that’s the future. Right now, Pitt needs a guy who will not lose games. Jurkovec lost the West Virginia game, but he probably still gives them a better chance than Veilleux at this point in their careers.
And yes, it’s a bit discouraging that we’re talking about a sixth-year quarterback in terms of “Can he just not lose the game for his team?” But that’s just the situation Pitt is in.
ONE PREDICTION
Pitt will beat Virginia Tech
If there’s truth in the notion that it’s darkest before the dawn, then perhaps the evening moon over Lane Stadium will be the morning sun for your Pitt Panthers.
Forgive the brief foray into poetic imagery, but I think you know what I mean.
To tell the truth, I don’t like predicting this. My track record of predictions - for basically my entire life - is damn close to an 0-fer, and by putting this prediction here, I am very much tempting fate in a way that could blow up on me.
Because you know what I think about during games? Like, aside from all the personnel and play-calling and what-have-you - aside from all of that, you know what my gut reaction, my emotional reaction, is to a game?
It’s wondering how what I’m watching will affect the message board for the coming week.
Like, as Pitt was in the process of losing to Western Michigan, my thought was equal parts “Why can’t they fix this defense?” and “The board is going to be a mess this week.”
I’m totally serious. People ask me if I root for Pitt during games that I cover. The answer is no, I don’t root for Pitt during the games, but I absolutely think about how the boards are going to be for the next week based on the outcome of what I’m watching.
So when I predict that Pitt will beat Virginia Tech on Saturday night, I am very much aware of the fact that if my prediction goes wrong - as my predictions often do - then it’s going to be pretty miserable on the boards.
And next week is an off week, so it’s going to be twice as bad.
But I do think Pitt will win. For whatever you want to say about Pitt this season, Virginia Tech has been arguably worse. The Hokies have been worse than the Panthers offensively (not by a lot, but still worse) and they also seemingly have a big vulnerability against the run. As you know, I think Pitt should run the ball more, and Lane Stadium seems like an ideal place to do so. Pretty much everybody Virginia Tech has faced this season has put up impressive rushing totals on the Hokies, and I think Pitt should do the same.
I think Pitt will do the same.
It’s not going to be pretty. It won’t be high-scoring, the over on 39.5 probably won’t hit and there likely won’t be many big plays in the passing game. Pitt will probably Canada (gain less than 400 yards) for the fourth time this season.
But it will be enough to win, and that’s all anybody really wants right now.
A win.
Just get a win, break the losing streak, improve to 2-3 and spend the off week trying to figure out what you can do well and what you can’t, and how you can emphasize the former while improving (or minimizing) the latter.
