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In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re looking at three things we know, two questions we have and one prediction as Pitt moves from the Virginia loss to this Saturday’s game against Ohio.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

One game isn’t the season
Cliché time:

One game doesn’t make or break the season, especially when it’s the first game of the year.

You’re never as bad as you are when you lose or as good as you are when you win.

The biggest improvement comes between Week One and Week Two.

Never get involved in a land war in Asia.

Always get 12 hours of sleep. Never play cards with a guy whose first name is a city. And never get involved with a woman who has a tattoo of a dagger. Do that, and everything else is cream cheese.

Wait, I got off track there. Although let’s be honest, Bobby Finstock is basically Nick Saban coaching high school basketball. And that part about a guy whose first name is a city - if that’s not at the top of John Wooden’s pyramid of success, it’s not far off.

Anyway, you know all the clichés. You know all the things people say when their team loses any game, especially if it’s the season opener. And you know that there’s some truth in those clichés, too.

You can’t let that season-opening game define your season. Whether it’s a win or a loss, that game isn’t going to make or break you. I don’t even think it really “sets the tone,” because we’ve seen plenty of seasons where the “tone” changed pretty often, even on a weekly basis.

Think about the 2012 team: lose to Youngstown State in Week One and get blown out at Cincinnati in Week Two but then come home to beat up on Virginia Tech (an overrated VT team, but still). Then they take Notre Dame to overtime on the road and look like they’re trending up before going to UConn and laying a total egg.

Or you could even look at last season. I would contend that it took 14 games to really figure out who that team was. They were partially the team that got blown out by UCF but they were also partially the team that took the Coastal by storm in the second half of the season. And, of course, they were also the team that looked miserable on offense in the final three games.

Whatever they ended up being, we surely didn’t know after the Albany game. Or the Penn State game. Or the Georgia Tech game. You can continue the pattern.

But every week, we made grand proclamations about who the team was. Every week. Or even on a smaller level, every drive or every play. It’s just what we do nowadays: with instant social media like Twitter or message boards, we can make a statement about a team or a coach or a player immediately after every snap. And it’s not just sports: people live-tweet television shows and make grand pronouncements about the quality of a storyline or an episode or a season as the show is happening. Instant reactions are nothing new; the ability to spread those instant reactions to the world, on the other hand, is a recent development of the last decade.

I am not immune to this. I have those reactions, too: I see a bad pass or a missed block or a whiffed tackle and think, “That guy’s no good.” But then the other part of my brain clicks in and says, “Well, let’s see what happens on the next snap.”

Similarly, right now I’m saying, “Well, let’s see what happens in the next game.” It’s easier to say that after a bad performance, and it’s certainly easier to believe in a good performance, but the reality is, teams grow and develop - forward or backward - over the course of a season.

The Virginia game didn’t define Pitt’s season. Not yet, at least. We may look back in December and say, “Yep, that’s who they are: we saw it from Week One.” That might happen. I’m not ruling it out. But we don’t know it yet, and I think you’ll save yourself a fair amount of consternation by saying, “Well, that was pretty bad, but we’ll see what they can do this week.”

Speaking of this week…

It’s a must-win
Here’s a cliché I didn’t mention when I was running down the overused sports tropes:

The must-win game.

Bobby Finstock would never say that and I try to avoid it as well. I mean, if it’s a playoff game or some other elimination scenario, then sure, it’s a must-win game. But a midseason contest with no tangible impact hanging in the balance…I’m hard-pressed to say it then. I mean, what happens if they don’t win? Do they not get to play any more games?

That’s usually my take on things in most weeks.

It is not my take on things this week.

Pitt absolutely has to beat Ohio this Saturday at Heinz Field. It has to happen. The Panthers cannot go to State College next weekend at 0-2. Because if they do…well…I mean…

Okay. The world isn’t going to end if Pitt loses to Ohio this week. But for the love of all things Pitt in this world, be they arched like the Cathedral or so yellow like French’s mustard - or would it be Ffrench’s mustard? - the Panthers really need this win.

The fan base needs this win. Or, put another way, the fan base really doesn’t need a loss. And I think the team needs it. Penn State is going to be tough, and it would be a whole lot better to roll out 22 coming off a nice, smooth win with a strong offensive performance than to wonder if you can complete a swing pass as you swing past Altoona.

We can debate momentum and confidence and the tangible, quantifiable effects of those concepts. But I think everyone would agree that things could get downright ugly if Pitt loses to a MAC team at home and then goes to Beaver Stadium.

And this Saturday is a winnable game. Yes, Ohio is picked to win the MAC after finishing second in the conference last year with nine wins. Yes, Frank Solich is a good coach. Yes, Nathan Rourke is a good quarterback. Yes, Ohio is a good team.

But the Bobcats are not unbeatable, not in the least. Their pass defense was suspect last season - No. 99 in the nation - and they gave up 290 yards to Rhode Island’s quarterback in the season opener on Saturday. Pitt should be able to complete some passes against this Ohio defense (more on that in a minute) and if that happens, the Panthers should come out with a win.

Now, there probably won’t be anyone at this game. And if Pitt does win, even if it’s in convincing fashion, it probably won’t count for much among the fans (after all, it’s just a MAC team, right?). I can acknowledge that.

So the Panthers need to win this one for themselves. They need to get the bad taste of the Virginia game out of their mouths and remember what it’s like to win a game since, you know, by the time Saturday’s game kicks off, about 293 days will have passed since the Panthers last left the field with a victory.

For a lot of reasons, that streak of winless days needs to end on Saturday.

A tough loss
Apparently it wasn’t enough to lose just one top-end defensive lineman for the season. A few weeks after Rashad Weaver’s season was ended prematurely with a knee injury, Pitt saw another key lineman go down for the count this week when Keyshon Camp suffered his own season-ending knee injury in the Virginia game.

Pat Narduzzi made the announcement on Wednesday, but it was pretty clear on Saturday night that Camp’s season was in jeopardy. And it really was a shame, because Camp was arguably playing as Pitt’s best defender when he got hurt.

Hell, he was even Pitt’s defender after he got hurt. Camp played just 19 snaps in the game but finished with a team-high six pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. Nobody else on the team had more than three.

And that was nothing new for Camp. Last year, he pressured the quarterback on about 19.6% of his pass-rush snaps, according to PFF. That’s a higher rate than Weaver had, and Camp finished fourth on the team with 18 pressures.

What’s really remarkable is that he was fourth on the team despite playing just seven games. Because this week’s injury isn’t Camp’s first; he missed the second half of last season with an injury and missed two games the year before with another one. It’s an unfortunate trend for a player who could be one of Pitt’s best defenders.

So yeah, Camp is a big loss for a team that really needs all hands on deck going forward. There are bodies available at defensive tackle, but not much in the way of proven depth. Jaylen Twyman and Amir Watts will see the bulk of the snaps, but Devin Danielson, David Green and Tyler Bentley, who all played on Saturday night, are going to have to step up. The last thing Pitt needs is to get weak up the middle and start being the kind of team that can get run on at will.

One encouraging development from the Virginia game was the play of the defensive ends. We all wondered how that group would play without Weaver, but I thought they were pretty solid. Patrick Jones and Deslin Alexandre performed admirably as the starters, and Habakkuk Baldonado looked like he’s got some serious potential playing as the No. 3 end. John Morgan filled out the rotation, but those three got most of the work.

If the tackles can get performances out of their young players that are on par with what the ends got out of their young players, Pitt’s defensive line might be able to weather this storm.

But seriously, don’t get any more linemen hurt. Two is enough.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Is this the biggest threat?
Looking ahead to Saturday…

Ohio’s no pushover, to be sure. But what is the biggest thing Pitt needs to watch out for against the Bobcats?

I say it’s the quarterback, Nathan Rourke. Of course, that’s not going out on a ledge; most games will be decided by the play of the quarterbacks. But Ohio is unique in that Rourke is not just a passer but also a runner and an accomplished one at that.

Over the past two seasons, Rourke has rushed for more than 1,700 yards and scored 36 touchdowns on the ground. On Saturday against Rhode Island, he was the Bobcats’ leading rusher with 75 yards and a score on 10 carries. The offense runs through Rourke, and he was a big reason why Ohio finished as the nation’s No. 9 rushing attack last season.

This isn’t to say that Rourke can’t pass. He threw for 2,434 yards, 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions last year and he started 2019 with a pair of passing scores. But the threat is on the ground and it starts with Rourke.

His role might be even bigger this season. Just like Pitt is replacing two 1,000-yard rushers, so too is Ohio missing its top two running backs from last season. AJ Ouellette ran for 1,300 yards in 2018 and Maleek Irons had 831; both are out of eligibility, leaving Rourke - 860 rushing yards - as the lone returner among last season’s top three rushers. And beyond those three, no other Bobcat had more than 20 rushing attempts.

So there’s some newness in the backfield, but the group started well against Rhode Island. Julian Ross ran 14 times for 68 yards. De’Montre Tuggle had 65 yards and two touchdowns on three carries. O’Shaan Allison put up 38 yards on six attempts. And Ja’Vahri Portis ran four times for 33 yards.

It all added up to 278 rushing yards on 38 attempts - 7.3 yards per carry. Pitt held Virginia to less than four yards per carry, but this Ohio team has more of an emphasis on the run and is better at it. We all know how much Pat Narduzzi prides himself on being able to stop the run; well, this week will probably be among the bigger challenges Pitt faces on that front in 2019.

And it starts with stopping Rourke. He’s going to make some plays and get some yards, but Pitt needs to minimize them as much as possible. Whether it’s a designed run or a scramble on a broken play, the Panthers have to be smart and keep him contained. And if they get a shot on Rourke when he drops back like Jason Pinnock had on Bryce Perkins Saturday night, they have to finish the play. Pitt simply can’t afford to let Rourke turn an eight-yard sack into a 27-yard gain on third down.

What’s the offensive identity?
I’m guessing this question won’t be answered this week or even for a few more weeks, but it’s still worth asking (even if we’re going to probably keep asking it).

But who is this Pitt offense? Or, more relevantly, who do they want to be? Who do they think they can be?

It wasn’t what they were on Saturday night against Virginia. At least, I don’t think it was. Not just in terms of points; of course they want to score more than they did and have more success in the passing game. But I’m thinking in terms of identity.

What identity does the staff want the offense to have?

I know we all believe Pat Narduzzi to be stuck in a run-run-run mentality, and sure, given the option, he would probably prefer to run the ball 60 times a game if it meant he could win that way. But I also believe he’s smart enough to realize that there’s more to it than that.

And I think there’s plenty of evidence that Narduzzi has been willing to adapt to what his offensive coordinator wants to do. Jim Chaney, Matt Canada, Shawn Watson and Mark Whipple are four very different offensive minds, from philosophy to play design to play-calling. From where I sit, it looks like Narduzzi let those four coordinators operate as they saw fit (for better or for worse).

So I don’t think the identity is totally defined by the head coach. He has input, of course, but he doesn’t define the identity. Which brings us back to the original question:

What do they want the identity to be?

Pitt recorded 30 rushing attempts in the loss to Virginia, but 12 of those were credited to Kenny Pickett, and while there may have been one or two designed runs in there, those plays certainly didn’t make up the bulk of his dozen “carries.”

If we just look at the running backs, there were 18 carries split among AJ Davis, Todd Sibley, Vincent Davis and V’Lique Carter. And that number right there - 18 running back rushing attempts - is one that I think Pitt definitely wants to bring up.

It’s not about being a run-heavy offense; it’s about being balanced. Whether it was by design (maybe) or game flow (probably not), the Panthers never seemed to give the running game a chance on Saturday night. There’s something to be said for knowing when to give up, and if Pitt’s offensive line doesn’t improve, then that time might come in every game, but I’m just not sure if the offense really ever tried to establish a running game against Virginia.

Then again, maybe that was the plan. Maybe Narduzzi and Whipple look at their offensive line and their running backs and say, ‘Hey, let’s just throw it.’ Maybe that’s their line of thinking. I don’t think that’s the case, but maybe it is. We’ll find out going forward, and that’s one of the things I’m really curious about:

What do they want the identify of this offense to be?

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt is going to get right with the passing game
I can’t believe I’m doing this. I probably shouldn’t even do it because these predictions have historically gone wrong, so maybe I’m dooming the Panthers by even saying it. But I’m going to say it:

Pitt’s passing game will take a step forward this week.

Ugh.

I don’t even like saying it. But I did and it’s out there now so, vaya con dios.

Look, I don’t know what Kenny Pickett’s ceiling is. I know what his floor is - eight yards, anyone? - but I don’t know how high his ceiling might be. I do think this game presents an opportunity, though. Ohio may be the preseason MAC favorite and deservedly so, but the Bobcats do have some question marks and one of them happens to be in the pass defense.

Last week in the season opener, Rhode Island’s quarterback threw for 290 yards against Ohio, and that was a continuation of 2018 when the Bobcats ranked No. 99 nationally in pass defense, allowing more than 250 yards per game.

Now, that particular stat category didn’t help Kenny Pickett when he faced Stanford; the Cardinal were No. 114 nationally in pass defense and Pickett threw for 136 yards in the Sun Bowl. But Wake Forest was two spots lower than Stanford, and we all know what Pickett did against the Deacons. So maybe there’s something to it.

Either way, I think there will be plays to be made against Ohio. The Bobcats had two sacks against Rhode Island and averaged less than two per game last year, ranking No. 79 nationally, so there shouldn’t be too much pressure on Pickett.

And if the pass rush isn’t making him jumpy…well…Pickett should be able to settle in and get comfortable. I keep coming back to that idea: Pickett needs to settle in, get in a rhythm and develop a feel for the game. Having a little bit of time without pressure - David Hale of ESPN.com says Pickett was under pressure on 44% of his drop-backs against Virginia - could do wonders for Pitt’s junior quarterback.

Against a seemingly susceptible pass defense that isn’t supported by a great pass rush, Pickett should be able to do a better job of finding his receivers.

Should. Could. If. None of those things is “will” but I’ll predict it: Pickett will be better this Saturday than he was last Saturday and Pitt’s passing game will look better, too.