MORE PITT COVERAGE - The Kenny Pickett Show, Ep. 9: Time to start ACC play | Opponent watch: Sims' breakout, Clemson's loss and more from Week Four | Three-star Ohio RB checks out Pitt | Film review: How Pitt's offense exploded against New Hampshire | Inside the numbers: A closer look at Addison, Hammond and more

In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re thinking about a wide-open ACC, Pitt’s chances in the conference, the running game and more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

A good response
Sometimes you get exactly what you need.

Listen, I know it was only New Hampshire. I know it was a game against an FCS opponent. I know that everything that happened last Saturday comes with that disclaimer.

I get it and I’ll be the first one to say it.

But I will also say this:

Pitt needed something positive after the loss to Western Michigan. Something really positive, because it seems like everybody was feeling really negative. And even if you can’t shake the memory of WMU’s receivers blowing by Pitt’s safeties, even if you can’t get past the fact that the Panthers gave up 44 points to a MAC team, even if you can’t really get over Pitt messing up a legit shot at a perfect non-conference record, I think even the most jaded among us would have to agree:

Beating a team - any team - by 70 points is pretty fun. Whether you watched at Heinz Field or streamed the game or just checked the score, I think you have to be pretty miserable to not find some enjoyment in seeing your favorite team dismantle an opponent with such ease.

The players certainly needed a shot in the arm. Much has been made of the players-only meeting led by Kenny Pickett in the aftermath of the WMU game; I tend to think things like that only seem to count as relevant if the desired results come, but the fact that Pickett and the team’s other leaders saw a need for a meeting is relevant to me.

It says that they saw issues - either issues that were present or issues they wanted to prevent from developing. The game against Western Michigan could be the kind of loss that snowballs, not necessarily manifesting as a loss to an FCS team, but the kind that can plant seeds that grow into big problems down the road.

The best way to fend that off? Come out and play the best game you can. And after a nearly flawless performance against New Hampshire, I would say Pitt did just that.

Again, I know that this past Saturday’s game will be a distant memory pretty much as soon as Saturday’s game at Georgia Tech kicks off. But Pitt needed a palate cleanser, and the Panthers got that in their blowout win over New Hampshire.

We’ll see if they make too much of it, if they think too highly of themselves or get comfortable and bring less than the necessary intensity in this week’s practices or Saturday’s game. But in terms of a response to the season’s first loss, I don’t think you could have scripted something much better.

An open ACC
This is a popular talking point this week, and to be honest, writing about this on Friday seems like I’m about six days late to the party.

In what feels like the first time since Pitt joined the ACC, the conference appears to be wide open. That’s not hyperbole: Florida State ran away with things in 2013 and 2014 and it’s been all Clemson ever since. The Tigers lost just three conference games from 2015 through 2020, and they’ve been even more dominant recently: in the last four years, they lost only one ACC game and their average margin of victory in ACC title games over that span was 34 points.

It was a foregone conclusion that Clemson would dominate every year. Atlantic Division teams didn’t have a chance, and the seven Coastal teams were mostly battling to see who would be the next lamb to be slaughtered in Charlotte.

That’s why Clemson got 125 votes as the preseason ACC favorite and the rest of the league combined for 22.

Four weeks into the season, things are looking a bit more interesting.

The aforementioned Tigers have two losses, including one in conference play after they fell to N.C. State last weekend. North Carolina got 16 first-place votes, but the Tar Heels are already well behind the eight ball with losses to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.

There are surprises all over the place. Wake Forest is 4-0 overall and 2-0 in the ACC after beating Florida State and Virginia. Boston College is also 4-0, although the Eagles haven’t faced any conference teams yet. And of the seven teams in the Coastal, none is undefeated and four already have two losses.

It’s a wild time right now in the ACC, and it really does feel like just about anybody can stake a claim to the conference (well, maybe anybody other than Florida State, who is 0-4 overall and 0-2 in league play).

Now, this is not to say that Pitt is the favorite or anything like that. Everybody else in the league is looking at the same situation the Panthers are. But what those teams see and what Pitt sees is that the door is wide open. Part of that is due to Clemson struggling, part is due to North Carolina and Miami going 2-2 in September and part is due to the general parity that seems to exist.

We may get to the end of October and see a natural, more expected pecking order. But that’s not the case right now.

Right now, it really does feel like anybody can win this thing. And if nothing else, that makes it interesting.

The first of many key games
There are a lot of ways to slice up a coach’s record.

What’s his overall record? What’s his record against FBS schools? What’s his record against Power Five schools? What’s his record against conference opponents?

For Pat Narduzzi, here’s what those numbers were entering this season:

Overall: 42-34
FBS: 36-34
Power Five: 30-32
ACC: 29-21

You can do the math to add in this season. But that’s where things stood after six seasons.

For this weekend, one number I think is relevant:

19-3

That’s Narduzzi’s record against four teams that show up on Pitt’s schedule every season.

Syracuse, Virginia, Duke and Georgia Tech

They’re not Pitt’s only annual opponents; the Panthers also face North Carolina, Miami and Virginia Tech every year, too. But those three teams have been much better and tougher every season. Those games are toss-ups at best, and that’s probably being generous, since Narduzzi only has five wins against them since 2015 and has never beaten more than one of them in a single season (his four wins are Virginia Tech 2015, Miami 2017, Virginia Tech 2018, North Carolina 2019 and Virginia Tech 2020).

Those games are going to be a challenge every year. But the other four - Syracuse, Virginia, Duke and Georgia Tech - are a different story.

Narduzzi has faced those four teams 22 times and only lost three. Two of those three losses were in 2017, which was easily Narduzzi’s worst season at Pitt, and the third loss was to Virginia in the 2019 season opener when the Cavaliers went on to win the Coastal Division.

The rest of the time, Pitt has held serve against those four teams. It hasn’t always been easy - four of Pitt’s six games against Syracuse and three of the six games against Georgia Tech have been one-score finals - but the Panthers have mostly taken care of business.

I bring this up because, obviously, Pitt is about to open conference play. The Panthers are going to Georgia Tech for the third season in a row, and while the schedule presents an unexpected adversity, that doesn’t change the basic nature of the matchup:

These games go a long way in determining the pecking order in the Coastal Division and the ACC. If Pitt is going to be where it thinks it should be - and, realistically, where it should be in Narduzzi’s seventh season - then the Panthers have to continue their success in these games.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Is Hammond the answer?
I’ve spent the last, I don’t know, nine months or so touting the talents of one Israel Abanikanda. And you might guess from the headline on this section of the column that I’m backing off that stance.

No, dear reader, I am not. I still believe Abanikanda is the best overall back on Pitt’s 2021 roster. And I still believe he’s got the highest ceiling of any Panther in the running back room. Izzy the man? Yes, I believe he is.

And yet, I can’t deny what Rodney Hammond has shown when he has gotten an opportunity this season. The freshman from Virginia carried eight times for 45 yards in the season opener against UMass and then broke out in a big way last Saturday against New Hampshire with 17 carries for a cool 100 yards and three touchdowns.

Pitt hasn’t had a freshman running back score three touchdowns in a game since Dion Lewis, and that seems like a good comparison point. Hammond is built like Lewis, with a certain bowling ball quality to his running style, although bowling balls don’t tend to intentionally and abruptly dodge the pins the way Hammond - like Lewis before him - seems to do with defenders.

According to Pro Football Focus, Hammond has forced 11 missed tackles this season. That’s not bad considering he has only touched the ball 26 times (25 carries and one reception). Abanikanda leads the team in forcing missed tackles, but he’s only ahead of Hammond by one despite having 41 total offensive touches.

The rest of the comparisons among Hammond, Abanikanda and Vincent Davis are interesting.

Look, I know we have to take the level of competition into consideration. Hammond’s stats - all of them - came against UMass and New Hampshire. He didn’t have to do it on the road against an SEC team, and he had a fumble in Pitt’s loss to Western Michigan.

But…

Those numbers are pretty strong. PFF has a proprietary stat called “elusive rating:” they define it as “A PFF Signature stat measuring success and impact of a runner with the ball independently of the blocking.”

Hammond’s elusive rating is 172.6 - that’s higher than Abanikanda and (102.4) and Davis (58.8), and it ranks No. 16 among all Power Five running backs with at least 25 rushing attempts this season.

Again, level of competition. But the production isn’t a lie, and I think the eye test backs it up.

Hammond makes things happen and he looks pretty effective doing it.

We all know that Pitt’s offensive line is key to getting the running game going, and so far, that unit hasn’t done a whole lot that’s encouraging. PFF is particularly down on the linemen; none of the regular starters has a good grade in run blocking, as Carter Warren has the highest grade among them and it’s 64.3 (which isn’t good).

Those grades are subjective, of course, and we kind of don’t need them since we can see what the running game is doing - which is to say, we can see it not doing a whole lot.

And we can see Hammond making some noise, so maybe the freshman needs a little more run.

What’s Pitt going to do in Atlanta?
This Saturday will be interesting on a lot of levels.

There’s the aforementioned running game. Will Hammond see more carries? Will Abanikanda establish himself? Or will Davis build on that 247-yard performance he had the last time Pitt went to Atlanta?
Taking a broader look, will Pitt’s running game overall get some traction against the Yellow Jackets? Georgia Tech runs a 3-3-5 defensive scheme that should leave some openings for the running game, although the stats don’t show a huge weakness.

The Yellow Jackets are giving up an average of 136.5 yards per game on the ground. Northern Illinois ran for 165 in GT’s season-opening loss. Kennesaw State followed that by running for 161. And Clemson tallied 158 in Week Three.

Last weekend, North Carolina finished with a net of 63 rushing yards, although that total included the 55 yards lost on GT’s eight sacks.

Either way, there should be a chance for Abanikanda, Hammond and/or Davis to get a few yards.

What about the passing game, though? Like I said, Georgia Tech had eight sacks in the win over UNC; some of that was on Sam Howell holding onto the ball too long, which can be attributed to coverage as much as the pass rush, but the results are what they are. Pitt’s opponents through four games have recorded seven sacks, but again, we have to consider the level of competition.

Facing an ACC team that is probably going to try to drop-and-cover on Pitt, can the Panthers’ offensive line hold up and give Kenny Pickett time to find an opening? And if the Yellow Jackets do blitz - they blitzed on 30% of Sam Howell’s drop-backs, according to PFF, although those only accounted for two of their eight sacks - can Pitt’s pass protection pick up the blitzes and can Pickett make good, quick decisions?

Under all of those offensive questions, of course, is the line. Pat Narduzzi said on Thursday that Owen Drexel will return after missing the New Hampshire game due to injury; does that mean Pitt will go back to its season-opening lineup with Drexel at center, Jake Kradel at right guard and Gabe Houy at right tackle? Or did the coaches like what they saw last week with Kradel at center, Houy and guard and Matt Goncalves at right tackle?

There are a lot of questions heading into a game that feels like the Panthers’ biggest challenge yet.

And that’s without even getting into the defense.

Georgia Tech has used two quarterbacks this season, and RPO’s are part of what they do, particularly with Jeff Sims at the helm. He didn’t stretch the field against North Carolina - just one completion on three attempts of 20 yards or more - but he hit 3-of-4 on passes of 10-20 yards and 3-of-3 on passes of 0-10 yards.

Sims only threw the ball 13 times in that game while doing most of the damage with his feet, rushing for more than 100 yards and three touchdowns. Can Pitt’s defense contain Sims and make sure to not get burned on RPO’s?

I feel like my theme this week is that things are going to be interesting. That applies to the ACC overall and it certainly applies to Pitt’s next eight games. Without question, Saturday’s showdown in Atlanta fits that theme as well.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt will need to win as a team
In the midst of all this football, a funny thing happened on Thursday:

I got to watch some basketball.

The Pitt men’s basketball team held its first official practice of the season and invited the media to come watch. The media window was scheduled for the final hour or so of practice, but the final hour or so of practice turned into roughly double that, so we got to see a decent amount.

I posted a lot of thoughts and observations right after practice here. Things like defensive intensity stood out, as well as an emphasis on togetherness and communication. And like any good recruiting reporter, I paid a lot of attention to the newcomers.

But something else stood out on Thursday, and it’s something I’ve been thinking about for a little while now.

As I watched 15 Pitt players - 12 of them on scholarship - work through drills in practice, I couldn’t help but ask a simple question:

Who’s the star here?

Who is the marquee player? Who’s the main attraction? Who’s the guy people will line up to watch?

Or you can even forget the glamour and fame and ask a simpler question:

Who’s going to be the leading scorer?

I don’t think there’s a clear answer to any of those questions, and that’s fairly unique, even for a team like Pitt.

In Jeff Capel’s first season, it took about one game for Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens to establish themselves, and they entered Capel’s second year as the premier players on the team. By the end of that season, of course, Justin Champagnie had broken out, and he was very clearly The Man entering last season.

This year, no one is very clearly The Man, and I’m not even sure if there are any clear top candidates.

Sure, Femi Odukale is going to be the point guard, and if I had to guess, he’s probably going to lead the team in scoring. But I get the feeling he’s not going to have a wide margin at the top of that category. I could see Pitt's leading scorer this year being somewhere in the range of 11 or 12 points per game.

The last time Pitt had a leading scorer who averaged less than 12 points per game was the 2012-13 season. Tray Woodall set the pace that year at 11.5 points per game, Lamar Patterson averaged 10 and Talib Zanna was at 9.6. That team won 24 games, finished third in the Big East and got bounced from the NCAA Tournament by Wichita State in an 8/9 game.

(The last time someone led Pitt in scoring while averaging less than Woodall’s 11.5 from that season was in 1947; Oland Canterna led the Panthers while averaging 10.9 points per game.)

I suspect if this year’s Pitt team had success nearing what the 2012-13 team did, fans would be quite pleased. But those Panthers had some advantages over this year’s group. Woodall was a senior that season and Patterson and Zanna were juniors. J.J. Moore was a junior and averaged eight points per game off the bench. And Pitt also had a lottery pick named Steven Adams, which helped.

So I don’t think the 2021-22 Panthers can match what the team did in 2012-13, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the final stat line looks similar. Which means that if this year’s squad wants to win games, it’s going to have to do it the way that team did it nine years ago:

Play tough defense (the 2012-13 team allowed an average of 56 points per game) and play together (that team averaged 16 assists per game).

If Pitt’s going to win games this season, they’re going to have to be a team and embrace that concept better than any of Capel’s previous teams have.