In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about Pitt's next challenge, Jamarius Burton's chances at Player of the Year, the best newcomer and a lot more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

The newest challenge
Here we are. The 17th of February and Pitt is sitting at the top of the ACC.

Never mind what the ACC website says. The home office lists Virginia first, probably due to the Cavaliers’ overall record, but if the season ended today, your Pitt Panthers would be the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament.

That’s wild, and I don’t know if any of us have fully come to terms with it. But that’s where we’re at.

And now Pitt’s players find themselves in a fairly unique situation. A new situation with new challenges.

They get to play as the hunted.

Pitt is the team with the target on its back. Pitt is the team everyone else is watching. The rest of the ACC is waiting for the Panthers to fall. The rest of the ACC needs the Panthers to fall.

The aforementioned Virginia Cavaliers? The pressure is on them. They need Pitt to lose in order to claim the No. 1 seed. They don’t control their own destiny.

Pitt controls its own destiny. Pitt is the only team in the conference that controls its own destiny. Maybe not for the outright regular-season title, but for the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament. The Panthers control their own destiny.

Which means everybody else is gunning for them, and I’m really interested to see how they respond.

Look, I’ve said it about a thousand times over the last few weeks: this Pitt team keeps finding ways to win in different situations, ways to overcome different types of adversity. After they lost to Florida State, the Panthers found themselves in a trio of games that came down to the last possession, and they pulled it off every time. They made a huge defensive stand at the end to beat Miami and followed it with an even bigger offensive possession to win at North Carolina.

Then they came home to face an inferior Louisville team and treated the Cardinals exactly as an inferior opponent should be treated.

Last Saturday, Pitt went to Tallahassee and logged a new kind of win: a grinder. The Panthers never pulled away from Florida State, with their lead hovering right around five or six points for about 16 minutes of the second half. But they also never let the Seminoles make up ground, giving up consecutive baskets just once in the final 20 minutes.

Most recently, Pitt faced another inferior opponent and actually fell behind by seven after 12 minutes, but they dominated the final eight minutes of the first half to take a nine-point halftime lead, and when Boston College cut that to five in the second half, the Panthers responded by taking control of the game, eventually leading by as many as 27 before closing with a 19-point win.

Four different scenarios for Pitt to face and four kinds of adversity to overcome, and the Panthers handled each well.

Now it’s time for their newest challenge: playing as the leader, with everyone in the conference chasing them and waiting for them to slip. We’ve seen this team grow over the course of the season, and I would contend that they are playing their best basketball right now.

They’re going to have to keep it up, because Virginia is coming and Miami is coming. The Cavaliers don’t get another shot at Pitt but the Hurricanes do; either way, they’re both watching Pitt’s every move.

Can Pitt protect a lead and win from ahead? That’s the new challenge.

The underrated hero
For whatever reason, and there are probably a few, Nelly Cummings seems to get overlooked when discussing the players responsible for Pitt’s rise to the top of the ACC this season.

I mean, I get it, to some extent.

Jamarius Burton is the team leader, the stoic hoops monk who can and will take over a game when his team needs him to.

Blake Hinson is the bulky forward who can bully his way to the hoop or step out - way out - and drain a three.

Greg Elliott is the wiry guard who has so much natural energy and so much shooting skill that at times the basketball seems to be glowing, NBA Jam-style, when it leaves his hands.

Federiko Federiko is the biggest surprise of all, the skinny JUCO center who was supposed to play less than 10 minutes per game as John Hugley’s backup but has blossomed into not just a contributor but an impact player who is getting noticed around the ACC.

And Nike Sibande is the spark off the bench, the guy whose career has been derailed or delayed more than once but is finally flourishing in his final season.

With all of those players drawing attention, the story of the short point guard with local roots and a desire to prove himself on the biggest stage in his last year of college ball has gotten overlooked a bit, it seems. Add in some tough shooting nights - 1-of-10 from three in the first game against North Carolina, the win over Virginia and the loss to Clemson combined; 3-of-17 from three in the Georgia Tech/Louisville/Florida State stretch - and scoring more than 11 points just twice in the 2023 calendar year, and it’s not hard to see how he has slipped into the shadows.

But that shouldn’t be the case, because I think he has had as much of an impact on Pitt’s success this season as anyone.

Well, maybe not anyone. Jamarius Burton has had more impact than anyone. But Cummings isn’t far behind.

He’s got good stats in ACC play, averaging 10.5 points and 4.3 assists and shooting 41.2% from the floor and 36% from three through 15 conference games. He scored 11 points and tied a season high with eight assists in the win over Boston College Tuesday night. And in the nine games this season when he has recorded at least six assists, Pitt is 9-0.

Cummings makes the whole thing go. He’s the point guard (a role he sometimes shares with Burton) and truly serves as a floor general.

There’s something more, too. I’ve been mulling this over for a little while, but a quote from Jeff Capel on Tuesday night registered with me.

“He’s been an outstanding teammate to the rest of these guys and an example of what a good player, a winning player should look like.”

That last part stood out to me.

What a winning player should look like

There’s something about that phrase - something we all talked about before Cummings arrived on campus. It was the experience he gained at Colgate, where the team regularly won multiple Patriot League Tournament games and made two NCAA Tournament appearances.

Maybe more than any other player on Pitt’s team, Cummings knows what it’s like to play on the biggest stage. He knows what it’s like to win.

I don’t think the importance of his intangibles can be over-valued. He may not score like Hinson (although he has done that a few times). He may not hit threes like Elliott (he has done that, too). He may not take over games like Burton (yeah, he’s done that as well).

But he’s going to be a steadying force for the team, a leader on the court and in the locker room who is going to continue having a big impact.

The last time
We’ve had a lot of these this season, and most of them date back a decade.

There was “the last time Pitt had a winning record” - that was clinched when the Panthers beat Louisville. That win put the Panthers at 17-7, and they couldn’t lose more than a max of nine additional games. The last time Pitt had a winning record was the 2015-16 season.

The North Carolina game that came before that win gave the Panthers 10 ACC wins. The last time they won double-digit games in conference play was 2013-14 - Pitt’s inaugural year in the ACC.

That was also the last time the Panthers had a winning record in conference play, which was locked up on Saturday at Florida State.

And it continued Tuesday night when Pitt beat Boston College to improve to 12-3 in the ACC this season. The last time the Panthers won 12 of their first 15 games in conference play was the 2010-11 season, when they started 13-2 en route to a Big East regular-season championship and a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

I don’t know if a No. 1 seed is in this team’s future, but making the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the 2015-16 season seems to be a certainty. Before we get to that point, though, I’m guessing we’ll hit another “The last time” benchmark or two.

How about winning a game in the ACC Tournament? The last time that happened was three years ago.

How about winning two games in the ACC Tournament? That’s another one that goes back to to the beginning, since the last time that happened was the 2013-14 season.

(I won’t go so far as winning three games in the ACC Tournament, for two reasons: 1. Pitt hasn’t ever won three games in the ACC Tournament before. 2. If Pitt wins three this year, I’m pretty sure the third win will be in the championship game and, well, I’m not quite there yet.)

And then we’ll get to the NCAA Tournament. The last time Pitt won a game in the Big Dance? That’s another 2013-14 reference - the Panthers blew out Colorado before bowing to Florida that year.

The last time Pitt won two games in the NCAA Tournament? We’re going back farther for that one. It was the 2008-09 season, when the Panthers were the No. 1 seed and won not just two but three games to advance to the Elite Eight.

That’s rarified air, and I’m certainly not predicting that Pitt is going to make the Sweet Sixteen (or beyond). But I don’t think we can entirely rule it out. We’ve got 26 games of evidence, the last 22 of which seem particularly relevant after the team rebounded from a pretty rocky start.

We can say, without question, that this is a Good Team. We can say, pretty comfortably, that this Good Team has Good Players. And I’m fairly confident we can say this Good Team can Win in March.

It’s the best Pitt team in a decade, and the more they win, the further back that reference point extends.

We’re not going to compare this team to the 2008-09 team. But these Panthers are on track to be better than anything we’ve seen since.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Can Jamarius Burton win player of the year?
Can he?

Yes.

Will he?

That’s the better question. So let’s discuss it.

There’s no question that Jamarius Burton has been Pitt’s MVP this season. You’d be hard-pressed to find anyone - coach, player, fan, media - who would disagree. But can he make the grade as the ACC Player of the Year?

One thing that is absolutely crucial: Pitt has to keep winning. I looked at the last 10 ACC Player of the Year winners (actually, I should say I looked at the last 10 years of ACC Player of the Year winners, since there have been 11 winners over that span) and almost all of them were on top teams.

And I don’t just mean Duke or North Carolina, although that helps: the ACC Player of the Year has come from one of those two teams in five of the last 10 years.

But I’m referring more to a team’s place in the conference. Last year, Alondes Williams won and Wake Forest finished the regular season fifth in the league, but that was pretty low, at least compared to most seasons.

Look at the list:

(Green and Larkin split the Player of the Year honors in the 2012-13 season; Green was the media pick and Larkin was the coaches pick.)

You can see the trend. The winner in seven of the last 10 years has come from a team that finished in the top three in the ACC. The last two years have seen players from teams outside the top three win, but even Georgia Tech two years ago had a double-bye in the ACC Tournament, so it wasn’t that far outside the top three.

Really, you have to go back almost a decade to find a Player of the Year from a team that wasn’t at the top of the conference. And it was T.J. Warren, a guy who averaged 25 and 7 and was clearly the best player in the league.

The year before, when Erick Green and Shane Larkin split the vote, you had representation of both ends of the spectrum with Larkin coming from the first-place Hurricanes and Green on the last-place Hokies. But overall, it’s a safe bet that your chances of being Player of the Year increase by being on one of the top teams.

Burton has that going for him.

Statistically, he’s got a case to make, too. I would say there are probably five top candidates to compare Burton to: Wake Forest guard Tyree Appleby, N.C. State guard Terquavion Smith, North Carolina forward Armando Bacot, Clemson forward Hunter Tyson and Miami guard Isaiah Wong.

Here’s how they stack up by the numbers.

Nobody else really has a stat line that is as comprehensive as Burton’s. There are only 11 players in the ACC averaging at least four assists per game, and the only one of those 11 also averages at least four rebounds per game. That’s Virginia Tech forward Justyn Mutts, but he averages fewer points per game than Burton (13.4).

To put it as simply as possible, no other player in the ACC averages at least 15 points, four rebounds and four assists per game. Plus, Burton is shooting 50.2% on top of that - that’s good for 14th in the ACC, and only one of the 13 players ahead of Burton has attempted more shots than he has.

So Burton is shooting a great percentage on a high volume of shots while averaging more rebounds than the rest of the guards and more assists than the forwards. He’s a near-complete all-around player and the MVP of the top team in the conference.

That’s not to say I think Burton is a lock; I would actually guess he won’t win the award. Bacot is one of two players in the conference averaging a double-double and he wears a pretty shade of blue, so he’s still got to be the favorite in the club house. Tyson is almost averaging a double-double, so he’s in the mix. Appleby and Smith have been great this season, too.

I would say Burton should get more votes than Wong and probably Tyson, but I’m not sure I see him beating any of Appleby, Smith or Bacot - let alone all three.

Then again, Justin Champagnie did finish tied for second two years ago when Moses Wright won. Granted, Champagnie averaged a double-double, but he also did it on a team that won 10 games total. Burton’s stats aren’t what Champagnie’s were, but his team is having more success and he has been the catalyst for it.

So I can’t say Burton is the favorite, but he’s certainly in the conversation.

Who has been the best newcomer?
I’m rehashing a topic from one of our Morning Pitt episodes, which is kind of cheating, but oh well. There’s only so many things to say in a week, and I actually think this is one of the more interesting topics to discuss.

Pitt brought seven new players to the 2022-23 roster:
Nelly Cummings
Blake Hinson
Greg Elliott
Federiko Federiko
Guillermo Diaz Graham
Jorge Diaz Graham
Dior Johnson

Johnson, of course, hasn’t played this season and is redshirting, so we’ll take him out of the discussion and just focus on the six who have played.

How do they rank? Who’s No. 1? Who’s No. 6? And, perhaps most difficult to answer, who are Nos. 2, 3 and 4?

To me, No. 1, No. 5 and No. 6 are pretty easy to identify. Let’s start at the bottom.

I have to put the Diaz Graham twins at the final two spots. The other four newcomers are starters and the twins are not. The other four are also contributing a lot more than the twins. That’s not to say the twins have not contributed and it’s not to say they haven’t been valuable members of the team this year (they certainly have), but somebody has to be last and next-to-last, and that’s where they go.

To split those two up, I think most would agree with Guillermo at No. 5 and Jorge at No. 6. Those are easy calls.

I also think No. 1 is an easy call. It’s Blake Hinson. He’s the team’s leading scorer overall and second-leading scorer in ACC games. He is averaging 15.9 points and 6.3 rebounds per game this season, he is shooting 44.2% from the floor and 38.4% from three and he has made more three-point shots than anyone on the team.

More than the numbers, though, I think Hinson is the X-factor for this team. There is a level of expected contributions you’ll get from Jamarius Burton and Greg Elliott, but when Hinson is on, this team is almost impossible to stop. Pitt is undefeated in the seven games when he has scored 20 or more and 13-2 when he tops 16. He scored 22 in the win at Northwestern and 25 in the win at Syracuse and posted back-to-back 20-point games in the wins over Wake Forest and Miami.

Burton, Elliott and the rest are good enough to win games. Getting Hinson going along with those guys makes Pitt really, really dangerous. So he’s No. 1.

There might be some slight disagreement with that, but probably not too much.

The three guys between Hinson and the twins, though…that’s where we’ll see some separation.

For me, it’s Cummings at No. 2, Elliott at No. 3 and Federiko at No. 4.

I don’t expect everyone to agree about that.

I’ll start by saying I think each of those guys has had a huge impact on the team’s success this season. You already know what I think about Cummings, based on what I wrote earlier in this column.

Elliott has been huge because of the three-point shooting; Pitt’s offense is so dangerous because there are multiple players who can make shots from outside. With just one fewer of those guys, the offense isn’t quite as dangerous. Elliott is the most deadly sharpshooter on the team, so he goes at No. 3 for me.

And Federiko…how can you not love what he has become? No one - not the coaches, not anyone - expected him to do what he has done, and he seems to get better every game. It has been astonishing to watch.

But I can’t put Federiko above the point guard and I can’t put him above the three-point shooter either, because while Federiko’s impact has been undeniable, it’s still less than Elliott’s impact from outside.

That’s how I see the newcomers. What does your ranking look like?

ONE PREDICTION

Syracuse is going to be a banger
This isn’t some wild prediction or anything I’m going to beat my chest over when it comes to fruition.

This is more just me saying how much I’m looking forward to that home finale against Syracuse next Saturday.

Yes, there are two games to play between now and then. And yes, those are big games. Pitt can’t really afford to lose at Virginia Tech tomorrow and really, really can’t afford to lose to Georgia Tech at home next week.

But that Saturday game against Syracuse…that’s going to be a wild one. If the Panthers take care of business in the next two and go into the home finale at 21-7 overall and 14-3 in the ACC, it’s going to be wild in the building that night.

It’s also Senior Night, which means fans getting a chance to show appreciation for Jamarius Burton, Nelly Cummings, Greg Elliott and Nike Sibande, and you’ve got even more energy in the building.

And then there’s the fact that it’s Syracuse. Pitt fans seem to get a little more excited for games against the Orange. Pitt announced a sellout - 12,508 - for the Miami game earlier this season, but the last announced sellout at the Petersen Events Center prior to that came in a Syracuse game; that was in February 2019, a Saturday just like this one coming in two weeks.

I think that streak comes to an end when the Orange come to town. As of Friday morning, I counted about two dozen single tickets available on Pitt’s official website. StubHub has about 80 or 90 available, although that number can obviously change.

Update: As of Friday afternoon, there are no tickets available on Pitt's website for the Syracuse game.

But the point remains: the tickets have been sold, and this team’s play through 26 games - 28 by the time Syracuse arrives - more than merits a strong showing from the fans. And I think the Panthers will get it.

It’s a Saturday night. It’s Senior Night. It’s against a team no one really likes. And it’s the home finale, a fitting end to a season that has gone so far past expectations that it’s not insane to call it incredible.

I think next Saturday will follow suit and the fans will match the team’s energy. There’s been so much talk this season about Pitt basketball being “back.” Next Saturday, I think the Petersen Events Center will be back.

I can't wait.