The 3-2-1 Column: Bell's confidence, the youth movement, Pro Day and more
In this week's 3-2-1 Column, we're thinking about Kade Bell's confidence, the burgeoning youth movement at Pitt, what we learned on Pro Day and a lot more.
- The Morning Pitt Mailbag: Realignment, the DL and more
- Bell breaks down the offense, the QBs, the WRs and more
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
The confidence is the key
I’ll say this for Kade Bell:
He certainly believes in what he’s doing.
That much can probably go without saying. I can’t imagine there’s a coach in the country, regardless of sport or position, who doesn’t believe in what he’s doing. And that’s especially true for coordinators - offensive coordinators, in particular.
You don’t get to a certain level without a whole lot of self-confidence and belief in your system. We sometimes criticize coaches for being too in love with their system, but the reality is, that commitment to their way of doing things probably had a whole lot to do with the success they’ve enjoyed.
You have to be adaptable, of course, but you also have to believe that your way of doing things is the best way of doing things.
I think that got Pat Narduzzi to where he’s at: his unrelenting dedication to his style of defense positioned him as one of the top coordinators in the country, and it carried him to the head coaching job at Pitt.
Your system has to be a good one and it has to work, but you also have to be really, really committed to it.
And Bell is really, really committed to it.
He really, really believes it will work, and I think that’s an important point to keep in mind as we move through the offseason talking about whether or not Pitt’s offense will improve in 2024.
The reality is, the Panthers aren’t exactly overflowing with NFL talent on that side of the ball. They have some good players and might have a few guys ready to break out, but if you were to list the top pro prospects on the roster, regardless of class, most of the guys you’d name first would come from the defense.
That’s just how it is, and that obviously puts the operation at a loss from the start.
But I kind of feel like almost every offensive innovation in college football this century has come from coaches looking for ways to neutralize talent differentials.
We may not be as big or as fast or as strong as those guys, but we can use scheme and system to get guys open and compete.
Bell’s offense feels like it has some shades of that. We’ve heard a few times this spring, from coaches and players alike, about how this offense is designed to scheme players open. Jeremy Darveau, who has coached with Bell at two other schools, said Bell has a knack for getting players open. Lindsay Lamar and JJ Laster said similar things, and Bell himself certainly believes it.
“We get guys open; I think that’s the biggest thing we do,” he said on Thursday. “We don’t just throw the ball up and hope our guys make a play; we want to help them get open.”
If you have Jerry Jeudy and Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith and Henry Ruggs on the roster - how ridiculous was Alabama’s 2019 WR roster? - then sure, throw the ball up and hope your guys make a play.
But if you have something less than that, then you have to find other ways to get it done.
To some extent, it feels like Pitt’s last three offenses found their success - when they had success - from talent beating talent. Matt Canada’s offense didn’t rely on that; that 2016 group was talented, to be sure, and had solid veterans at key positions, but they also did a whole lot with motions and shifts and unbalanced formations to mess with the defense and create favorable situations, which led to success.
I don’t think Bell will approach things the way Canada did, but I do think he’s coming into this season with the belief that his system is designed to create favorable situations, rather than relying on talent alone to win matchups.
We’ll see how it all works out, of course. But as we sit and try to quantify the potential pros and cons from this offensive shift, I think the belief in the scheme is one to consider.
Near-instant impact
This one is hitting the trifecta.
I talked about it on the Morning Pitt. I wrote an article about it. And now I’m bringing it up in the 3-2-1 Column.
If there’s another content delivery system I haven’t used for this topic yet, I don’t know about it. But reach out if you think of one, and I’ll find a way to get there.
The topic is the 2023 recruiting class, and the early returns are pretty good.
I’ll be honest: I didn’t expect it. I mean, I thought there were good players in this class, but it was ranked No. 57, partially due to the size of the class and partially due to…well, due to the level of guys they took.
But less than two years after those guys signed, a whole bunch of them are making an impact. It’s especially true on defense: Pitt signed nine guys on defense in that class, and from those nine all three linebackers (Jordan Bass, Rasheem Biles and Braylan Lovelace) played enough last year to avoid redshirts; two safeties (Jesse Anderson and Cruce Brookins) are the talk of spring camp; and the one defensive tackle in the class (Isaiah Neal) was the highest-rated prospect in the class.
In their second seasons, all six of those guys are virtual locks to make the two-deep. That’s pretty remarkable, especially when a few of those guys weren’t exactly top prospects.
The two WPIAL products - Brookins and Lovelace - had offer sheets highlighted by a combined total of four power-conference offers (aside from Pitt).
Certainly, this coaching staff has earned some latitude - that sounds better than “blind faith” - when it comes to defensive recruiting. But even if we give/gave them the benefit of the doubt with guys like Brookins and Lovelace, I’m not sure I would have penciled them in on the 2024 two-deep.
Now they’re closer to being written in marker.
Maybe it will end up being a spring storyline and nothing more. Pitt has three veteran safeties and a decent number of upperclassman linebackers; we’ve seen plenty of guys who were definitely going to play in the spring only to end up spending most of the season on special teams.
But even if that happens with Anderson, Bass, Biles, Brookins, Lovelace and Neal - and I don’t think it will, not with all of them and maybe not with any of them - I believe the coaches when they say the future is really, really bright for some guys in a class that wasn’t seen to have this kind of potential.
(And don’t forget about Shadarian Harrison; he’s got a really high ceiling, too.)
Continuing a trend
I’m going to carry that topic over to a second part of the column, because I don’t think the class of 2023 happened in isolation.
As a matter of fact, I think the classes of 2022 and 2023, when taken together, look like they have the makings of - well, basically half the depth chart.
That’s not an exaggeration.
I already listed the six guys from the 2023 class who I think will be on the two-deep this season. But let’s look at the class before that.
In 2022, Pitt signed six defensive recruits:
Sean FitzSimmons, Ryland Gandy, Kyle Louis, Samuel Okunlola, Marquan Pope and Jimmy Scott
Okunlola transferred and Pope was medically disqualified (although he’s still around the program). But the other four? I think their names will all be on the two-deep - and they’ll be on the field - this season.
FitzSimmons has a pretty strong shot of winning a starting job at defensive tackle this season, in my estimation. Ditto for Gandy at cornerback. And I think Louis is penciled in as the starter at Star linebacker. Scott probably won’t be a starter - I’m betting on Dayon Hayes and Nate Matlack as the starters at defensive end - but I think he’ll be in the rotation and quite possibly the two-deep.
If four players from the 2022 class and six from the 2023 class all end up on the two-deep this season, you’re looking at roughly half of the defensive rotation coming from two recruiting classes.
I think that’s really impressive.
Now, we could be cynical and say that it reflects poorly on the classes before them, that the veterans must be under-performing if all of these second and third-year players are making the two-deep. And maybe there’s some truth to that.
But I’m waking up and choosing peace. I’m looking on the bright side. The baseball season just started yesterday, and there is no point on the calendar when optimism shines brighter than Opening Day for Major League Baseball. There’s just something about it that brings extra positivity and good vibes, making it easy for me to ignore those cynical thoughts.
I think those guys we’re talking about from the 2022 and 2023 classes are actually pretty good. And what’s really remarkable to me is the hit rate.
Pitt signed 15 defensive recruits in those two classes, and I’m projecting 10 of them to be on the two-deep this year.
How does that compare? Only six of the 11 defensive players in the 2021 class are still on Pitt’s defensive roster. Only four of the eight who signed in 2020 are on the roster at all.
The 2019 class had three bona fide hits - SirVocea Dennis, Brandon Hill and Calijah Kancey - and about four players who were just okay (Brandon George, Nate Temple, Bam Brima and AJ Woods). The 2018 class had three very good players (Habakuk Baldonado, Marquis Williams and Erick Hallett) and three solid contributors (Devin Danielson, David Green and Tyler Bentley). The 2017 class hit on five of its nine defensive signings (Paris Ford, Deslin Alexandre, Damarri Mathis, Jason Pinnock and Jaylen Twyman), while the oversized 2016 class with 16 defensive recruits ended up getting good production from roughly a half-dozen of them.
Put against those other classes, the groups from 2022 and 2023 look pretty damn impressive, and the hit rate - with a small sample size - is just about as good as it gets.
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TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
What about offense?
Of course, defensive recruiting has never been much of a concern with this staff; they tend to do pretty well with that side of the ball. Offense, on the other hand…
Those two classes - 2022 and 2023 - haven’t exactly produced much on that side of the ball.
It’s still early, of course, and the classes that came right before those two have built a lot of the projected starting lineup. Five penciled-in starters on this year’s offense came from the 2020 and 2021 classes (Nate Yarnell, Branson Taylor, Terrence Moore, Rodney Hammond and Gavin Bartholomew) and three more are transfers, leaving just three spots that are projected to be filled by the 2022 or 2023 classes (wide receiver Kenny Johnson, right tackle Ryan Baer and right guard BJ Williams are the top candidates).
When you expand to the two-deep, there are a whole bunch of transfers who will likely be filling out the list. As I sit here in the third week of spring camp, I think transfers will be listed as the backups at quarterback, running back, one tackle spot, center, tight end and at least one or two receiver spots.
Actually, that reliance on transfers might be more of an indictment of the previous recruiting classes than the defense’s heavy reliance on 2022 and 2023 recruits is. There’s just not a lot of recruited depth on this offensive roster, and the coaches have had to fill a lot of holes with players from other schools.
Of the 11 offensive recruits in the 2021 class, only six are still on the roster (four of which are projected two-deep players). Pitt only signed seven offensive players in 2020, but that group has been completely wiped out; Branson Taylor is the only one left (for context, the other six were Jordan Addison, Israel Abanikanda, Jaylon Barden, Aydin Henningham, Daniel Moraga and Michael Statham).
Those two classes - 2020 and 2021 - should provide the redshirt juniors, seniors and redshirt seniors for the 2024 roster, and Pitt has just seven of those players on the team. The other 15 junior/senior-eligible offensive players on the projected roster are made up of two super-seniors, one player who moved from defense to offense, one walk-on who went on scholarship and - this is the big one - 10 transfers.
Because of the recruiting misses in the 2020 and 2021 classes, Pitt has had to backfill with transfers. In today’s world of college football, that’s a viable option but not necessarily a preferable one. Pitt should work the transfer portal just like every other team in the sport, but the Panthers still need to have a fair amount of success in high school recruiting.
We’re seeing that on the defensive side, but the offense is leaving a lot to be desired.
What will the 2024 NFL Draft hold for Pitt?
Wednesday was Pro Day in the South Side, so all of Pitt’s NFL Draft prospects were working out for pro scouts.
Pro Day is a big event in the lead-up to the Draft, and Jim was there to cover it. From reading his reports and talking to other people who were around for it, I have to say: I’m not exactly confident in the Panthers’ chances for Draft day.
Maybe it’s a natural byproduct of a 3-9 season. Or perhaps the two just go hand-in-hand: when you don’t have a lot of NFL talent on the team, you’re probably not going to have a great season.
Seems like that’s what we’re seeing play out right now.
The pro prospects who get mentioned the most are guys like Bub Means, Matt Goncalves and M.J. Devonshire. They were all invited to the NFL Scouting Combine, which puts them in a select group, and Means and Devonshire certainly got some attention at that event with their testing results.
But I don’t know. Means opened some eyes with his 4.43 40-yard dash and his 39.5” vertical at the Combine, but he also showed up at Pitt’s Pro Day about 10 pounds heavier than he was in Indianapolis, and I’m not sure if that was a good thing for a guy who had one really good half-season in his career.
Goncalves entered the 2023 season as, in my view, Pitt’s top NFL prospect. But injuries cut his season short and limited his participation at the Combine. So while he was able to get on the field for Pro Day, that was after just a few weeks of being back in action, and that probably hurt his prospects.
And Devonshire tested well at the Combine, as expected, but maybe a slight bit below what I thought he would do. Throw in some senior film that probably wasn’t the best of his career, and I have my questions there, too.
Out of those three, I would say Goncalves still has the best chance of being drafted, and at least one of the other two will hear his name called as well, but I’m not nearly as confident about all three as I once was. And I’m really not sure how many guys outside of that group will get drafted.
I mean, look at the list:
Tyler Bentley
Malcolm Epps
C’Bo Flemister
David Green
Phil Jurkovec
Jake Kradel
Shayne Simon
Marquis Williams
A.J. Woods
Who stands out? Woods impressed at Pro Day with his testing numbers, but I would contend it would take something extra to overcome his film. I believe in Marquis Williams, but I don’t know if he’s getting drafted. Shayne Simon could be a sneaky late pick after he had a pretty good Pro Day. Maybe Flemister, too, but I don’t know.
It just doesn’t feel like a strong Draft class for Pitt.
ONE PREDICTION
Next year’s Draft will be better for Pitt
Next year, by contrast, will be a stronger one.
I think.
Look, I’m no draftnik, regardless of how wide a net that has become as everybody with a Twitter account can offer expert analysis on a cornerback’s hips and an offensive lineman’s ability to bend.
Fun fact: autocorrect just changed a misspelling of “ability” to “banality,” and I felt like my computer was getting it.
But I’m not a draft expert, and I’m not going to pretend that I am. There have been guys I was sure would get drafted and they didn’t, and there were surprises the other way, too, so I’m going to hedge on my predictions. But I do think there are some quality Draft prospects who will be looking for pro opportunities next offseason.
Konata Mumpfield is pretty interesting. I heard someone compare him to a Diontae Johnson-type, which makes sense from a size perspective and just maybe from a playing style perspective (particularly if Mumpfield broadens his game by playing more outside, as we’ve heard he is doing this spring).
Gavin Bartholomew seems like he should get an opportunity. Maybe Branson Taylor, too, if he has a really good senior year.
From the defensive side, Dayon Hayes and Solomon DeShields will look to get an opportunity in the NFL, and I think both will be Combine invites, at the very least. All three of Pitt’s upperclassman safeties - Donovan McMillon, Javon McIntyre and P.J. O’Brien will be eligible, too, and I imagine McMillon, at the very least, should get drafted.
And you know what? Ben Sauls is eligible next offseason. I know kickers don’t usually get drafted, but there have been at least two kickers selected in 18 of the 24 Drafts since 2000, so the opportunity is there, and I think Sauls might be good enough to get a shot.
It’s not a great Draft class for Pitt, but I think there should be enough numbers to get more Panthers selected than we’ll see this year.