MORE HEADLINES - Narduzzi on defending UCF and more | Video: Narduzzi's final talk before UCF | Inside the numbers: A closer look at Pitt's offense | Inside the numbers: Pitt's defense after four games | The Drive Breakdown: How Pitt scored at UNC | FREE ARTICLE: After losing to UNC, Pitt has a new challenge this week | Slideshow: Pitt hoops first practice under Jeff Capel | FREE ARTICLE: Capel focused on culture change

“Pissed off,” passing downs and positives - that’s what we’re thinking about in this week’s Panther-Lair.com 3-2-1 Column.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Everyone should be pissed off
“I think it’s a pretty obvious answer: everyone’s pissed off. We just lost. So, pissed off; that’s the mood.”

Yeah, I’d say that sums it up.

Kenny Pickett spoke those words after Pitt’s loss to North Carolina on Saturday, and I imagine they apply to just about anyone with a connection to the Pitt football program right now: players, coaches, fans, administration, Roc - pretty much everyone. And for good reason: Pitt should not have lost to this UNC team. 2018 should have been the year the Panthers broke the UNC curse; instead, it was the year that further reinforced it.

And, in broader terms, it reinforced growing concerns about the program and its current direction. But just as the Georgia Tech win didn’t mean Pitt was definitively headed in the right direction, the loss at UNC doesn’t form the basis of any definitive declarations in the other direction.

It was a bad loss in a winnable game, a chance to put a notch in the win column during a season that might need as much help as it can get in that regard. This wasn’t a gimme - no games are - but it was one Pitt should have got, one Pitt thought it could get and, ultimately, one Pitt didn’t get. It was a swing game, as I mentioned last week, one of the four or five games each season that will ultimately be the difference between 5-7 and 7-5.

Last year, it was losing to Syracuse and North Carolina - two winnable games against two beatable opponents - that caused the Panthers to miss the postseason for the first time in a decade. Taking care of business against those teams plus Georgia Tech, Duke and Virginia, or at least winning four out of those five, was crucial to getting back to a bowl game in 2018.

Pitt started that slate right with a win over Georgia Tech, but the Panthers dropped one with a swing game that turned into a swing-and-a-miss game.

And for that reason, there were a lot of people “pissed off” on Saturday (and quite a few more still are almost a week later, I suspect).

To be frank, I think that’s probably the right reaction. That loss shouldn’t lead to quiet resignation or despair; it should create pure, unadulterated anger for all involved parties. And for those who can do something about this - I’m talking on the micro scale, meaning players and coaches - that anger needs to translate into a better product, however that happens.

Maybe it means renewed focus in practice. Maybe it means renewed intensity in how each day’s preparations are met. Maybe it means taking that extra step on the field, giving that extra push on a block or being extra secure in making a tackle.

Turn the anger into something productive, because that might be the best thing Pitt has going for it right now. There was rivalry-fueled motivation going into the Penn State game (which didn’t work out) and let’s-bounce-back motivation going into the Georgia Tech game (which did work out).

This week, the motivation is about releasing some of that anger, that frustration and turning it into success on the field. Mistakes haven’t been all of Pitt’s problems this season, but they have loomed large; the best possible outcome this week is that the players are so “pissed off,” in Pickett’s words, that they cut down on the mistakes through their own motivation. Ultimately, a player has to make a conscious effort not to make mistakes, and maybe that effort is intensified after this latest loss.

It will need to be if the Panthers are going to get a road upset against Central Florida.

Every down is a passing down
As we’ve talked in circles all week - or all season, or maybe for the last three years - about the topic of defensive sub-packages, it seems to me there is a fundamental philosophical issue. You might even call it a misunderstanding.

We all know that goal No. 1 for the Pitt defensive staff at the direction of Pat Narduzzi is stopping the run. The problem is, the traditional notion of what constitutes a passing down and what constitutes a rushing down has become very non-traditional.

For a lot of teams, every down is a passing down.

Last weekend, UNC threw the ball on 14 of 32 first downs, including the first play of five out of the Tar Heels’ six drives in the first half. The quick-strike plan worked, too; UNC quarterback Nathan Elliott started the first drive with a 13-yard pass, the second drive with an 18-yard pass and the third drive with another 13-yard pass. And two of those three drives ended in touchdowns.

150 of Elliott’s career-high 313 passing yards came on first down, and his yards per attempt average on those plays was higher than his ypa for the entire game. Two of his three longest completions on the day were first-down passes, and his two touchdowns were thrown on first and second down - rather than third down which is, you know, the traditional “passing down.”

Of course, Pitt’s third-down defense wasn’t so hot on Saturday either, as Elliott completed 8-of-10 for 108 yards on third down, but that’s another topic for another day. The biggest issue is how Pitt can defend teams that view all three downs as passing downs, because this Saturday will see the Panthers face another group who likes to wing it on first down.

UCF is a dead-even 50/50 on first down runs/passes (actually, it’s 58/58 this season). Five of McKenzie Milton’s nine touchdown passes have come on first-down throws, and the Knights are averaging 12.3 yards per completion when throwing on first down.

And that means Pitt is going to have a real challenge. Narduzzi loves his base defense - your standard 4-3 with two corners and two safeties - on early downs to shut down the run, but when a team’s tendencies this season look like UCF’s and the opposing offense is just as likely to pass as it is to run on first down, can you really stick with the base package if that makes you vulnerable?

Narduzzi would tell you that you have to stop the run, that sacrificing the run defense will lose the game for you. And there’s some truth to that. But there’s also truth in the fact that UCF averages 7.43 yards per first-down pass attempt and 4.52 yards per first-down rush attempt; that’s a three-yard difference that could loom large over the course of a game.

There’s one other element to consider: UCF averages 4.52 yards per attempt on its 58 first-down rushes this season, but the number goes up significantly on second down, where the Knights are averaging 8.65 yards on 55 attempts. Narduzzi talked about how UCF hurries back to the line, so even if Pitt uses a more pass-unfriendly defense on first down, the Panthers could get caught in that personnel on second down and potentially give up some running plays.

How do they solve that? You got me. I’m not smart enough, nor do I get paid enough, to figure that one out. That’s why the coaches are in their current positions - and they better have an answer this weekend.

There are some positives
Lost along the way this week was the fact that there were a few encouraging performances in the UNC game.

I know it’s hard to see those things or even consider the possibility of something positive, but it’s true: some guys played well. Who, you ask, was a shining beacon of hope in an otherwise despair-filled afternoon?

Taysir Mack made two really, really good catches; that’s a big positive and he’s looking very much like a No. 1 option in the passing game for now and the next few years. The degree of difficulty was considerably high on those two receptions, including one that drew a pass interference flag, and he grabbed them both.

That’s big for the offense, obviously, but I also think it’s big for Kenny Pickett’s confidence. He has been a bit sheepish with the deep passes - either because of the pass rush or a wariness of turnovers and probably both - but the more times Mack pulls those passes in, the more willing Pickett is going to be to put the ball in the air, coverage be damned (within reason, of course).

I also thought Maurice Ffrench had one of his better games as a Panther. He finished with a game-high seven receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown, but he had at least three really good plays. He showed some great focus to catch a third-down conversion on Pitt’s second touchdown drive and then took a flip pass on a jet sweep variation for a nice pickup on the play after that. And on his touchdown reception late in the game, he made a good adjustment and played off the defender well.

If Mack is emerging as a No. 1 and Rafael Araujo-Lopes is a known quantity as a slot receiver, Ffrench coming into his own as a receiver could really fill out the passing game and open things up. Then if Shocky Jacques-Louis can continue to develop, he might have the brightest future of any of them.

And if we’re talking about freshmen, we have to mention Mychale Salahuddin, he of the ever-changing jersey numbers but surprising explosiveness on his first collegiate touch. The Pitt coaches obviously want to ride their senior running backs as the foundation of the offense, but I think Salahuddin showed enough on Saturday - even if it was only three carries for 34 yards - to merit more opportunities.

He’s got a minimum of four games he can play this season and still redshirt and he has already played two; the coaches should get him at least 8 touches and maybe as many as a dozen in the other two games he plays and see what kind of impact he can make (while keeping an open mind to playing him more than four games).

Defensively, I think Dane Jackson has been up to snuff this season. The people at Pro Football Focus have him giving up five catches on 13 targets this season; it’s not perfect, but it’s not too bad, especially when one of those five catches was last weekend when Anthony Ratliff-Williams made a highlight-reel grab against near-perfect coverage from Jackson.

Rashad Weaver has also been a bright spot. He doesn’t have the numbers you would have expected or hoped for at this point with just one sack on the season, but he has been all over the field, is usually around the ball and is tied for second on the team in tackles, which is pretty solid for a defensive end.

I also thought Jaylen Twyman showed some flashes, particularly in the North Carolina game. It seems to me that Twyman should see increased workloads - he played 14 snaps at UNC and has played 50 total through four games - as the season goes on. I asked Pat Narduzzi on Thursday about that and he agreed.

“Jaylen did some good things last week and it’s like Coach Partridge said and really every one of our coaches say every week: ‘If you get an opportunity to go out there and play - it’s hard to get 11 guys out there so if you get an opportunity to play, you have to make some things happen.’ And Jaylen made some things happen last week and he deserves more playing time.”

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What else can be done (on defense)?
This is the million-dollar question, isn’t it? What can Pitt do defensively to improve?

There are a few ways to skin this particular cat, so to speak. Personnel is always an option, and to that end, I think the coaches have to keep tinkering with who they’re using in the back end. Dennis Briggs is a frequent target for fans, and he does lead the team in missed tackles; but beyond fan perception, there probably are some other options to try.

Like Phil Campbell, who has been more or less MIA this season. Or Jazzee Stocker, who seems to be playing better now than he has at any other point in his career. Or Therran Coleman, who came to Pitt as a corner but moved to safety in the spring and now seems to be back at corner but has the size and athleticism to do a lot at either position. Or even Paris Ford, who was moved from safety to corner ostensibly to have a better chance of getting on the field but still probably has his highest ceiling at safety.

Up front, Rashad Weaver obviously has to play as much as possible, but it seems like Keyshon Camp and even Jaylen Twyman could probably stand to get more snaps than they’re currently seeing (Camp is one of the top backups at tackle, but Twyman is No. 5 on the depth chart right now). The other end spot seems…questionable, although Patrick Jones has shown flashes when playing in the middle of a three-man line for Pitt’s “Delta” package (when he’s not taking personal foul penalties, that is).

The coaches seem to have a solid rotation at linebacker, which mostly consists of Elijah Zeise and Saleem Brightwell rotating at Money linebacker. They have also gotten Elias Reynolds on the field at various times to give Quintin Wirginis a break, but the latter is still the best option and should continue to play the bulk of the snaps.

So yes, there are some personnel things that can be done. But the real improvement, if any is going to come, will happen away from the depth chart. Somehow, some way, things have to click for this defense. That was my main thought driving out of Chapel Hill last Saturday: how is it, after three-plus years, that this defense still has breakdowns and busts, week in and week out? And to the layman, they sure seem to be the same breakdowns and the same busts.

These aren’t young players. These aren’t new guys. They’ve been in the system and learned the defense for years now. If anybody is going to “get it” and execute the scheme properly, it should be this group.

And yet…it’s not happening. So either there’s a disconnect between the coaching and the execution or there are flaws in the scheme that make it unlikely to ever really work on a consistent basis.

I’m not smart enough to say which one it is. My guess is the answer is a little bit of both. And that’s a problem because if there are flaws on the coaching/execution, then they will undermine the way the scheme is supposed to work. And if there are flaws in the scheme, they will undermine any successful coaching/execution.

What else can be done (on offense)?
This one is probably a little easier, because when I look at Pitt’s offense through four games, I think there are enough positive things that happen to make you believe better results are possible.

Not everything has been perfect, and we’ve talked about the issues pretty much every week since the season started. The offensive line hasn’t given Kenny Pickett a clean pocket on every snap. The receivers don’t always get enough separation on every snap. The running backs still aren’t making the unblocked defender miss frequently enough (although Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall are both averaging better than six yards per carry, so I can’t complain about them too much right now).

But in every game, particularly in the second half, the offense has sabotaged itself with mistakes. Every time. Whether it was Pickett coughing up two turnovers in the Albany game, the field position issues against Penn State, penalties against Georgia Tech or more penalties and another turnover at UNC, the offense regularly cost itself opportunities with self-inflicted mistakes.

And that’s really true for the second half of games. Pitt’s offense has committed seven turnovers this season; five of them have come after halftime. The story is the same with penalties: Pitt’s offense has been called for 14 total penalties this season, and 10 of those were in the second half of games.

That’s not a game plan issue and it’s not a matter of adjustments; it’s simply about playing cleaner and making fewer mistakes. Shawn Watson can do better, of course; everyone on the offense can. But if the on-field work is a little cleaner with a few less mistakes, the second-half offense would likely have more than one second-half touchdown this season.

So the key for the offense, in my view, is to keep plugging away. After an abysmal game against Penn State, Pickett has steadily improved week by week; he’s far from a finished product and the leaps of progress could certainly be bigger, but if he keeps improving, the passing game will continue to develop. He hit a few passes at North Carolina - at least four that I can think of - that should be confidence-builders for him, and as he continues to get more comfortable in the pocket, feeling the pass rush and seeing the field, he’ll continue to become more effective as a passer.

Keep that progress going in the right direction, and this offense will get better.

ONE PREDICTION

Pickett will take another step
I’m going to keep predicting this because I think it will keep happening.

And also because, you know, Pitt really, really needs it to keep happening. I mentioned above about Pickett and the passing game and the offense and how important he is to all of that. And that’s kind of obvious, right? The quarterback has to play well or the offense will struggle; not exactly breaking any new ground there.

But I will say that I think this week will represent another step forward. I really do believe he has continued to get better each week this season and he’s continuing to get a better rapport with Mack and Ffrench and Araujo-Lopes and Jacques-Louis and George Aston; those connections should improve this season.

Central Florida has done a good job against the pass this season, allowing an average of 157.7 yards per game, good for No. 14 nationally. But the Knights also haven’t really been tested by the passing games of UConn, South Carolina State and FAU. Also of note is that UCF has given up some yards on the ground; UConn and FAU both had 100-yard rushers, the Huskies went for 220 total and the Owls, led by running back Devin Singletary, ran for 320.

So there are opportunities to make plays in the run game, which is obviously Pitt’s preference. And if the Panthers can get that element going, things should open up even more for Pickett.

I’m not looking to dig too much deeper than that: Kenny Pickett will be better this week than he was last week, and that’s my prediction.