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In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we’re thinking about the season being a week away, a new addition to the team, optimism about the offense and more.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

One week away
Here comes a sentence that I didn’t think I would type for at least another 12 months:

Pitt is one week away from playing football.

That’s crazy.

I’ve talked quite a bit in the last three months or so about my confidence level for the 2020 season happening. Sometimes it went up; other times it went down. When reports had the Big Ten and PAC 12 set to cancel their seasons, the confidence was as low as it could be. Probably sub-10% (I think I said 7% at the time).

Then it rebounded as the ACC decided it would act like the SEC and push forward with a season (or, probably more accurately, enough ACC programs decided they would act like SEC programs to get the vote through). That was a few weeks ago, and it bounced the confidence level up a few points, but not much. The whole thing still felt like such a house of cards that the inevitable fall would probably come before we got to the second week of September.

Yet here we are. Sure, a lot of colleges have effectively canceled in-person classes in the wake of all-too-predictable COVID-19 outbreaks. But the football programs have moved forward, undaunted by the circumstances and extensive - and expensive - hoops they have to jump through.

And the hoops will be considerable. Three tests per week, 10 days sitting out for a positive test, 14 days sitting out for potential exposure. Some very good players are going to miss some very big games this season, and it’s possible they might not even have the virus.

The reporter side of me is fascinated by the sheer unpredictability and vast array of possible scenarios; the other side of me is morbidly fascinated by what could turn into an epic collapse.

If that happens, it will happen. But in the meantime, we’ll get some football to watch. Of course, fans won’t be at those games; Pitt - and the Steelers and the Eagles and Temple - announced that they won’t have anyone in attendance for the games in September. That leaves an open but unlikely window for October and November, but unfortunately for Pitt fans, the Panthers play half of their home games - three out of six - this month.

Still, having football with no fans is better than having no football, right? In a calendar year when we’ve seen the NBA and NHL playoffs and the MLB regular season undergo drastic changes and March Madness has been canceled outright, the thought of seeing 22 guys run some plays on the field seems quite satisfying.

Yes, it will be a weird season. It will be an asterisked season. And if, by chance, Pitt has a successful year, it will always be a “Yeah, but…” season. But weird football is still football, and while everything around the game has changed, what happens on the field will be the game we know.

I suspect that even if Pitt wins the coin toss, takes the ball and goes run-run-pass-punt, we’ll all appreciate it just a little bit more than we would have otherwise.

Who am I kidding? Pitt never wins the toss. Then again, this year has been pretty weird...

The new addition
Pitt had some roster news this week when Maryland grad transfer receiver DJ Turner was announced as a new addition to the Panthers for this season.

I have to be honest: I don’t have a strong reaction to this. Pat Narduzzi also put two walk-ons on scholarship the same day he announced that Turner is joining the team, and all three news items resonated about the same.

Bringing in Turner just didn’t do a whole lot for me. He caught 24 passes in 30 games at Maryland and never really excelled despite being a four-star recruit in the class of 2016. Granted, he only played three games last season, so perhaps his career numbers would have been better with a full slate of games, but his 2019 season was cut short because he was arrested in late September and charged with driving under the influence. That followed some slightly less heavy offenses in 2016 when, as a freshman, Turner was suspended for the final four games of the season after an incident with a BB gun.

Those things don’t affect my opinion too much, though; I have some faith in the Pitt coaching staff doing its due diligence on background checks and whatnot, and if Narduzzi and his assistants are comfortable with Turner’s character, then I won’t quarrel with it.

I just don’t think bringing in a grad transfer receiver filled an area of great need. Cornerback? Yes, that’s an area with a need. Safety? Yes, Pitt could use one of those, if only in a backup role. The same goes for linebacker. And you can never have enough talented and experienced offensive linemen.

But receiver? I just don’t see the need. Most of that is probably due to my own high opinion of the receivers who are already on the roster: I’ll get into this more in a minute, but I really like this group and I think they fill a lot of roles with the guys they have.

That said, I don’t hate bringing in Turner. It’s a one-year investment, and there’s certainly something to be said for the thought that if you have an open spot and a talented player is available, you get him.

I do think Turner is talented. Speed seems to be his primary skill, and there’s always room for speed. He has been mentioned as a potential weapon in the return game, and I could see that. He only had four returns in his career at Maryland - a kickoff and three punts, one of which went for a touchdown - but I’ve always been of the opinion that the best way to get something out of the return game is by taking a sound scheme and populating with 10 guys who can execute it and one really fast guy who can turn an opening into a score (or at least really good field position).

So perhaps that’s the role he can fill. And again, as a one-year investment, there’s not much risk. If they get good field position or even a score in the return game from Turner, then it will have been worth it. And I should also mention that I won’t rule out Pitt adding one more player to the 2020 roster.

Bullish on the receivers
As I alluded to earlier, part of the reason I’m not too moved by the addition of DJ Turner is that I am kind of bullish on Pitt’s current crop of receivers.

Like, bullish to the point of thinking they could be pretty good on their own, regardless of any grad transfers who join the group.

Obviously, a big part of that stems from the praise for Jordan Addison and the rest of the Panthers’ freshmen. But you can back it up even further than that and start with the returning players at the position.

There’s Taysir Mack. Sure, he has been inconsistent over his two seasons at Pitt. But he has also made more contested catches than anyone else on the roster - maybe more than everyone else on the roster - in that span. He’s the best downfield receiving option the Panthers have, at least among the guys we have seen on the field, and he has turned that ability into some big plays over the last couple seasons.

A few factors go into Mack’s ability to make those plays, from body control to a knack for finding the ball quickly (someone pointed out to me a year or so ago that Mack waited until the last possible moment to turn his head and look for the ball, which made it more difficult for defenders to read him and make a play of their own). No matter where it comes from, that’s a unique skill and it’s what Mack brings to the offense.

Then there’s Shocky Jacques-Louis. He’s a junior, which is crazy enough on its own; he still seems like a “young guy” to me. But he’s not young anymore. He has experience from the last two seasons and should step into a primetime role as one of the Panthers’ top receivers.

There’s no doubting that Jacques-Louis has big-play potential. He has touched the ball 52 times on offense over the last two seasons - 32 receptions, 20 rushes - and averaged 10.9 yards per touch. That’s a full yard better than Maurice Ffrench averaged in his career (although his numbers dipped after he averaged 8.3 yards per touch as a senior).

The biggest question with Jacques-Louis, as we all know, is health. He has played in each of the last two seasons, but only 18 out of a possible 27 games. He missed six in 2018 and three last season. If he can stay on the field, he’s capable of serious production, and I could see him being in the role Ffrench played last season, where he sees a ton of targets on a weekly basis.

For the No. 3 receiver, there’s Jared Wayne. He made his Pitt debut as a freshman last season, and while there were some first-year issues - fumbles, wrong routes leading to interceptions - he was also Pitt’s second-leading receiver over the final four games of the season and showed a good feel for operating as a big possession receiver.

I really like that trio, and it doesn’t even include Tre Tipton, the sixth-year senior who is hoping to (finally) have a healthy season and is, by all accounts, looking pretty good in training camp so far.

And then there’s the freshmen. I’ve spent enough space in these columns writing about Jordan Addison and Jaylon Barden and Aydin Henningham; you know how I feel about those guys. Put them in the mix with a pretty strong group of returning players and…I don’t know. It sure seems to me like there’s potential for some game-changing performances out of the receivers.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Does that extend to the offense?
I have a confession to make:

My optimism about the receivers isn’t limited to that position group.

Somehow, some way, I’ve talked myself into believing that this whole offense, not just the receivers, has a chance to be pretty good this season.

Now, I’ll be the first to admit that there are some leaps of faith involved in arriving at that conclusion. This is an offense that returns most of the pieces in a unit that barely averaged 21 points per game last season. 111 teams in the nation did better than that. In eight out of 13 games, the Panthers scored 20 points or less, and they only topped 30 against Power Five competition once.

That’s awful. No two ways about it. Awful. So bad, in fact, that it was worse than 2018, when Pitt’s offense was so punch-less that it got Shawn Watson fired.

If nothing else, the 2018 offense could run the ball really well. Last year’s offense didn’t have anything it could do very well. The run game completely vanished and the passing game was productive almost solely through volume.

Efficiency and big plays were not hallmarks of Pitt’s offense in 2019, and that unit cost the team two wins and put at least a couple other victories in peril.

This year, the Panthers return almost all the key players from that offense plus the entire coaching staff. So why the optimism?

Good question. I wonder that myself. It certainly isn’t the first time I’ve talked myself into something during the offseason; all those months off let the imagination run wild and crazy ideas start to fester. Throw in the added stir-craziness of the pandemic, and my offseason analysis is probably even more off the rails than usual.

But that’s where I’m at.

I already addressed the receivers. If Shocky Jacques-Louis stays healthy and the freshmen are as advertised, that group will improve. I’ve also talked about Lucas Krull quite a bit in the past; I think he’s a significant upgrade at the tight end position. The offensive line is largely the same cast of characters, but having guys like Carter Warren and Bryce Hargrove as fourth and fifth-year players with a full season of starting experience under their belt has to portend at least some kind of step forward.

The running backs…I don’t know. I think there could be minor improvements from the returning guys, but a little better blocking up front would help quite a bit, so the success of those two positions will go hand-in-hand.

And then there’s Kenny Pickett. There’s part of me that thinks - and probably knows - that some of his shortcomings aren’t going to disappear completely. But there’s another part of me that sees a fourth-year player entering his third year as a starter and thinks that some of the things like pocket presence and “feel” for the game should get a little better.

He’s got the physical tools. He can throw it well enough and he can get out and run. If the offensive line can give him just a little bit of time, I think he can execute Mark Whipple’s offense.

And here I come back to one of my main themes of the offseason:

Pitt’s offense just needs to get a little bit better in 2020. The Panthers averaged 21.2 points per game. Like I said, that’s awful. Bump that up just a little, maybe to somewhere around 25 points per game, and you’re still looking at a pretty lackluster performance, but with Pitt’s defense, it should be enough to win a bunch of games. And 25 isn’t a high bar to aim for: 95 teams in FBS averaged at least 25 points per game last season.

If all I’m asking is for the Panthers to be in the top 95 in scoring, I’m not really asking that much, am I?

What’s the historical precedent for Pickett?
I just said that I think Kenny Pickett should get a little better in 2020 than he was in 2019, so I’m not going to dedicate a section just to the expectations for him this season. What’s more interesting to me right now is history - and whether any other Pitt quarterback in recent memory has been in a similar situation to Pickett.

First, Pickett’s situation:

He’s a senior quarterback and a multi-year starter who has shown flashes of brilliance. He has put the team on his back to win games with fourth-quarter heroics multiple times. And he has demonstrated toughness and leadership.

He is also 15-12 as a starting quarterback, having led the team to a 7-7 record one season and an 8-5 record the next, with the latter being marred by Pitt’s previously-mentioned miserable offense.

Now he’s entering his senior season as a third-year starter tasked with getting the offense to keep up with one of the Panthers’ best defenses in years. And really, they don’t even need to keep up with the defense; they just have to not be such a weakness that they cost the team multiple games.

Pickett has something to prove as a senior, maybe more than any other Pitt quarterback this century.

Who else compares?

Well, here are the other senior quarterbacks who have started for Pitt since 2000.

Max Browne - 2017
Nate Peterman - 2016
Tom Savage - 2013
Tino Sunseri - 2012
Bill Stull - 2009
Tyler Palko -2006
Rod Rutherford - 2003
David Priestley - 2001

I can’t profess to remember the circumstances surrounding Priestley entering 2001, but of the rest of the guys, I don’t think any of them had the pressure that Pickett does this year. Rutherford had the pressure of expectations since Pitt was highly-ranked entering the 2003 season, but he was pretty good in 2002; no one was saying, “Rutherford has to get better for the 2003 Pitt team to win.”

Palko certainly wanted to win in 2006 after 2005 was a disappointment, but he was also a known entity. He had led Pitt to a fair amount of success - the program’s only conference championship ever - already.

Stull had pressure on him in 2009, but most of that was from fans who wanted him on the bench after his performance in the 2008 Sun Bowl. Sunseri was never a fan favorite, but he was almost a sympathetic figure in 2012 given the public disdain his one-year head coach expressed for him in 2011. Almost.

Savage and Browne were only active at Pitt for one season each; there were expectations for them to lead their respective offenses, but neither is in a similar situation as Pickett. And Peterman entered 2016 coming off a decent performance in 2015, but the focus that year was more on James Conner’s return and the change from Jim Chaney to Matt Canada.

No, it seems that Pickett stands alone. He’s got the weight of the team on his shoulders, and there is no single player on the 2020 roster whose individual success will be more closely tied to the team’s success than him. Sure, that’s the case for a quarterback on any team, but this particular quarterback on this particular team with this particular defense…if they struggle, if 2020 is less than an eight-win season - even on an 11-game schedule - then Pickett’s legacy will be one of underachievement.

Plenty of Pitt quarterbacks have written their legacies in their senior seasons, but none had as much to write as Pickett does. His legacy will be decided in 2020.

This fall will be a big one for some Pitt commits
I guess I kind of made a prediction in the last section when I talked about why I think Pitt’s offense will be better this season, so consider this a two-prediction column.

This second prediction is a bit more obvious and I think most would agree with it. There are a few Pitt commits in the 2021 class who are in line for some big senior seasons, assuming they get played.

I actually wrote about this - or something along these lines - earlier in the week when I ran down the latest on Pitt’s recruiting class and which recruits still have their senior seasons happening this fall. A few guys unfortunately won’t get to play; that includes the three commits from Virginia, who all plan to enroll early.

But the majority of the class will have games in the fall, and for some of those guys, that will be a big opportunity to showcase what they can do.

Like Nate Yarnell. The quarterback from Lake Travis High School in Austin (Tex.) has a story we’ve recounted several times, but we’ll hit the important parts again here. He started a handful of games last season as a junior after the senior starter got hurt, but he really hasn’t gotten the exposure to be a national quarterback recruit yet.

Now last year’s senior starter is on campus at the University of Texas and Yarnell is set to take over the job at Lake Travis, which is one of the top high school programs in a state full of top high school programs. If ever there was a school where exposure can be gained, it’s Lake Travis, and if Yarnell is as talented as we’ve heard he is, then he’s going to get noticed this fall.

Of course, there is also a school of thought that it might not be the worst thing if Yarnell doesn’t play this fall, since all that extra exposure would likely lead to some new offers, which could put his Pitt commitment in jeopardy.

Granted, there are quite a few hypotheticals in there, but I would also say that, as far as Pitt’s interests are concerned, the notion that not playing isn't the worst thing could probably apply to a few guys in the class, including some of those who have already had their seasons canceled.

Of the recruits who will be on the field this fall, another one who could be in line for a big year is Jake Renda. He’s playing tight end at IMG Academy in Florida this fall after growing up in New Jersey and playing quarterback earlier in his high school career. Renda believed his college position would be tight end, so he went to arguably the premier high school football factory in IMG to showcase himself as a tight end.

Turns out, Renda didn’t even need IMG to get FBS attention, as he committed to Michigan State in early July and then flipped to Pitt last month. Renda and IMG will be playing on ESPNU Friday night, so that will be a chance for fans to check him out.

Of the Pitt commits who are playing this fall, Yarnell and Renda probably stand to gain the most, and they'll merit watching over the next few months.