The 3-2-1 Column: A Record breaking night, bubble watch, and more

The Pitt basketball team is coming off of a record-break performance on Wednesday night. We discuss that win over Wake Forest and look ahead to tomorrow’s game with Miami, and also start discussing what needs to happen over the final 10 regular season games in order for this team to make the tounament.

The Pitt football team introduced some familiar names at a press conference on Wednesday and also landed a new recruit recently during a hectic stretch of recruiting.

All that and more in a jam-packed 3-2-1 Column this week.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Pitt shots the lights out on Wednesday

Pitt set a school-record on Wednesday in the team’s 81-79 win over Wake Forest, as the Panthers converted 18 three-point field goals. Blake Hinson accounted for eight of those, while Greg Elliott chipped in with six. It was an unconscious shooting effort for both players, and Pitt needed every single one of them as Wake Forest had a shot at the buzzer that could have won the game.

The shooting performance on Wednesday was remarkable. Not only did Pitt make 18 treys, but they did it with efficiency shooting them at a 48% clip. The Panthers also were not simply chucking up for the sake of doing it, but rather they came within the context of the offense. Pitt assisted on 22 of the 28 made field goals for the game. Whether Wake Forest was in man or zone, Pitt got into the teeth of the defense and found kick-outs for open shooters.

Pitt has now connected 194 three-pointers as a team this season through 21 games. They are second in the conference averaging 9.1 made three-pointers per game. And to put those figures into context, Pitt ranked 14th in the league with 5.4 threes per game a season ago, and the only made 172 total in 31 games.

This Pitt team is not always the most efficient team from behind the arc, as they have taken the most in the league (552), and are 7th (34.8%) in converting them. Either way, that has kind of been this team’s identity for most of the season, and when the team first started to turn things around, it was behind performances like this. Pitt’s 87-58 win over Northwestern in early November comes to mind, when Pitt shot 14-of-22 from deep, and assisted 22 times on 26 baskets.

Pitt thrives off of ball movement and finding open shooters. The Panthers do not have a true post presence. They do not have wings that get to the basket. Pitt is a guard-driven team. They need to make shots from the outside, through 21 games this season, they are not hiding their identity.

Does it always work as well as it did on Wednesday? Well, Pitt’s 7-of-28 performance from long range in an upset loss to Florida State last weekend tells you all you need to know about that, but Pitt is not completely reliant on threes. Pitt’s best and most consistent player, Jamarius Burton, has only made 13 this year. He has carried the team offensively many times this season and does not need three-pointers to be effective.

Pitt is not always going to have record shooting games like this. They will need to win at times behind the play of Burton, or with better defense. There are plenty of ways to win a basketball game, but this team is at its best is when they are sharing the basketball and shooting it with confidence. Pitt displayed that in a big way on Wednesday.

The Hometown connection

The Pitt football team introduced three of its newcomers at a press conference on Wednesday afternoon, but of course they did not need much of an introduction. Three of Pitt’s finds in the transfer portal this offseason are all names that are well known for followers of this program and football fans in the region.

Phil Jurkovec, Derrick Davis, and Donovan McMillon were all once prominent four-star high school prospects from the WPIAL and were all pursued heavily by the current Pitt coaching staff. All three of them left town out of high school for one reason or another, but their career paths have led them back to Pittsburgh.

The emergence of the transfer portal has allowed for more of these type of stories across college football. The portal is simply another avenue where teams can add talent, and that’s the biggest takeaway here. The return home stories are certainly nice and grabbed the headlines this week, but Pitt is not doing any of these guys any favors by taking them ‘back', but rather they are hoping they can contribute at a high level to this team.

We’ve seen Pitt have plenty of success of late with finding talent in the transfer portal. Pitt has had its best two-year stretch under Pat Narduzzi in 2021 and 2022, and there have been major contributions from players from the portal. Lucas Krull, Marcus Minor, Konata Mumpfield, Bub Means, MJ Devonshire, Shayne Simon, Tylar Wiltz, and MJ Devonshire have all started games and played key roles over the past two years and helped Pitt win a lot of games. Given the pedigree of these three transfers, the hope is that they can continue that trend into next season.

Although, it’s hard not to look at these three guys in particular from a Western Pennsylvania slant. Pitt’s third leading tackler a season ago was Johnny Petrishen, a player who Pat Narduzzi wanted immediately when taking the job, but he landed at Penn State instead. Petrishen was not technically a portal guy, because he came to Pitt as a walk-on, but his play sort of opened a door for guys to ‘come home’ and contribute at Pitt after starting his career elsewhere.

Devonshire is another player that saw his recruitment lead him elsewhere before coming back to play for Pitt. He is expected to be one of Pitt’s best players this season, and for Pitt to be successful this year and beyond, they’ll need the three new transfers to take similar jumps.

It’s an interesting perspective to look at where high school football talent is right now in Western Pennsylvania as it relates to Pitt. The Panthers’ program is in its best spot in a long time and yet the talent level in its backyard is diminishing year after year.

Pitt has shown it doesn't necessarily need the local players to be successful. Pitt’s latest first round draft pick, Kenny Pickett, is from New Jersey. 2022 Unanimous All-American selection Calijah Kancey is from Florida. Pitt can get by without relying on the WPIAL, but at the same time, winning some of these recruiting battles the first time around is something the Pitt staff needs to do a better job of in the future, but it takes two to tango.

There does seem to be a bit of a disconnect with local players thinking Pitt isn’t necessarily the best spot for them, whether those reasons are grounded in facts or not. Jurkovec himself mentioned on Wednesday there are some negative recruiting tactics used against Pitt by rival programs. He said he heard about how Pitt doesn’t have its own practice facility and they have to share that and a stadium with the Steelers and that was painted as a negative.

‘It has everything you would like,” Jurkovec said about Pitt. “It has everything to offer to recruits.”

He even said all WPIAL recruits should stay at home on Wednesday, and coming from him, a once prominent recruit that left town, may have rubbed some of the Pitt faithful the wrong way, but at the same he has some real life experiences to look back on before making that comment.

I don’t know if these guys returning home and having individual and team success will change the perception of Pitt to local prospects, but perhaps it could become a factor in future recruiting battles.

If you think back to all the greatest high school football players in Western Pennsylvania, a great deal of them made their mark playing close to home, and Pitt is hopeful these three transfers can add to that legacy.

Juelz Goff is No. 3 in Pitt’s class of 2024

There are certain months out of the year that are bigger than others for college football recruiting and they all have their own specific purposes. For instance, June is a month where schools host a lot of official visits and prospect camps. The months of March and April see plenty of recruits visit schools for spring practices. December of course is the new signing day.

January sort of sets the table and lays the groundwork before all of that can take place. It is the month where colleges tend to transition from the current recruiting class they just signed, to the one for next year. Many schools across the country host what are called ‘Junior Days’ where they bring in large groups of prospective recruits, some with offers, and others hopeful to eventually land one.

It is a feeling out process, and that is the stage we are in currently. Pitt hosted one junior day last weekend with over 30 recruits coming to Oakland, and there will be another one tomorrow. Sometimes these visits can go especially well and produce a commitment, and that’s exactly what happened last weekend

Pitt received a verbal pledge from in-state running back prospect Juelz Goff, a 5’10” and 190-pound prospect out of Central York High School. Goff was an All-State performer in 2022 in Class-6A after rushing for 1,611 yards and 31 touchdowns.

Goff became the third commitment in Pitt’s 2024 recruiting class when he made that decision joining four-stars Day Day Farmer and Jahsear Whittington.

"It felt right, and I really liked the atmosphere," Goff told Panther-Lair.com last week. "I have a good relationship with the coaches. I just loved it.”

I actually caught up with Goff’s high school coach, Gerry Yonchiuk, on the phone last week to learn more about Pitt’s newest commitment. As his coach, he unsurprisingly spoke glowingly of Goff, but he also thought his star player found a good fit.

“I was thrilled about it and it just seems with Pitt, the tradition of running backs over all the years at Pittsburgh…he kind of fits that mold,” Yonciuk said. “They’ve always been known to have a great rushing attack and I think they are getting a really, really solid player.”

Pitt’s recruiting class ranked 50th in the class of 2023, but it’s hard not to notice the class of 2024 is off to a strong start and it appears well on the way to be ranked higher than the one that just signed. I am not sure if Pitt will land another junior day commitment this weekend, but admittedly I wasn’t expecting Goff’s decision to come either. Recruiting is always a bit unpredictable no matter what month it is.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

What are the strongest position groups on the roster heading into the 2023 season?

Pitt received some good news on the player personnel front earlier this week, even if it was pretty much expected. Tyler Bentley, Devin Danielson, and Daniel Green, Pitt’s trio of senior defensive linemen, all announced they will be coming back to Pitt to use their ‘super’ senior season in 2023.

Given that the time to enter the portal has closed until after spring ball, we are starting to get a pretty good sense of what the Pitt football roster will look like next season. They have added 19 recruits, 5 transfers, and retained a fairly experienced roster from this past season. So looking at it all from this stage, what areas of the roster are the strongest as it stands today? Here are mine.

Offensive Line

Pitt has a very experienced offensive line, and truthfully that was not something I expected to be writing about the 2023 team. Heading into this past year, Pitt brought back all five starters from the ACC Championship team and they were supposed to help carry the offense. Injuries happened and a new wave of players got pressed into action, and they actually produced a solid season. Now heading into 2023, those are the catalysts for the offense. Jake Kradel is back to anchor the unit with 38 starts under his belt. Matt Goncalves has never technically won a starting job coming out of training camp, but has 21 career starts and was a third team All-ACC pick this past year. Blaek Zubovic has 14 career starts as well. Branson Taylor gained valuable experience, Ryan Jacoby had a role on the team this past year, and younger guys like Ryan Baer and Terrence Moore were touted recruits in high school. I think this group can be very strong again next year.

Defensive Tackle

Losing a unanimous All-American in Calijah Kancey and still being very well stocked at the defensive tackle position is a testament to the room Charlie Partridge has built. I have my concerns with the defensive end spot heading into next year, but I think the interior spot should be well manned. The aforementioned trio of Bentley, Danielson, and Green have all basically been co-starters since the 2019 season. DeAndre Jules is another veteran who will play. Throw in some talented younger players like Elliot Donald and Sean FitzSimmons, I think the outlook here is very bright.

Cornerback

Pitt will be ushering in two new starting safeties next year, but they will have the ability to lean on its experience at cornerback in 2023. Marquis Williams is coming back to lead the room. He has 35 career starts under his belt and was very solid as Pitt’s No. 1 corner in 2022. MJ Devonshire came on strong last season, and should enter next year getting some NFL looks. Both of those players each had two pick-sixes this past season. AJ Woods is basically a third starter and is also returning back there. Throw in Rashad Battle coming off of an injury and some promising young players, it’s hard not to feel good about this spot for Pitt in 2023.

How many more wins does Pitt need down the stretch?

Let’s get back to basketball. The Pitt Panthers currently own a 14-7 record and a 7-3 mark in ACC play. The Panthers have secured some really solid resume-building wins this season with victories over the likes of NC State, North Carolina, and Virginia. They have grabbed some bubble wins over teams like Syracuse, Northwestern, and most recently Wake Forest.

As it stands today, most bracketology projections have the Panthers not only in the tournament, but avoiding the play-in games. That good for now, but Pitt has to keep adding to its tournament profile to stay there.

So, what is the magic number to make the NCAA Tournament for this Pitt team? It’s kind of hard to say as we sit at the halfway point of conference play. I don’t think the standard 20 wins is quite an automatic right now given the current state of the ACC. Last season, Wake Forest had 23 victories and 13 conference wins, and found themselves in the NIT.

Pitt’s metrics aren’t bad, but they aren’t great either. They are hovering in the low-60s of the NET rankings, which replaced the old RPI a few years ago. Pitt could use a few more Quad-1 wins, which they should get a chance at on Saturday against Miami. But more importantly, they need to avoid any Quad-4 losses. Unfortunately the ACC has some really poor teams this year, which lessens opportunities for quality wins, and opens the door for some bad losses.

Pitt has 10 games to go this season, five at home, and five on the road. Pitt’s next two opponents are tough games, but opportunities to secure big wins. The Panthers play Miami at home tomorrow, and have a rematch with North Carolina on Wednesday in Chapel Hill. But the three that follow are against Louisville, Florida State, and Boston College - all teams 200 or lower in the NET rankings.

I think 6-4 down the stretch and a win or two in Greensboro would be enough, but to be on the safe side after seeing what happened to Wake Forest last year, Pitt might need to go 7-3 here to close out the regular season. It might be a tough ask, but at the same time, they have shown they can beat anyone in this league as well. I’ve said it a couple times in the past few days, but it’s late January and we’re talking NCAA Tournament. It’s been a few years, and has probably felt even longer, since this conversation was floating around the Pitt program, to put it mildly.

ONE PREDICTION

Pitt beats Miami on Saturday

Spoiler alert for the staff picks I guess, but I am expecting Pitt to come out and beat Miami tomorrow afternoon at the Petersen Events Center. The Panthers have seemingly played some of their best basketball at home this season against the top teams in the league, as they have notched two top-25 upset in front of the Oakland Zoo already this year with wins over North Carolina and Virginia.

Miami is ranked No. 20 in the country, and they just thrashed Florida State earlier this week, the same Seminoles team that knocked Pitt off last Saturday. The Hurricanes have been a bit of a surprise team this season as they raced out to a 13-1 start, but they have been 3-3 over their last six games with a head-scratching loss to Georgia Tech mixed in there. Miami has a balanced team with four players averaging double figures this season, but senior guard Isaiah Wong is definitely what makes this team click. He will present a tough matchup for sure, but Pitt just a saw pretty good one in Tyree Appleby on Wednesday.

I think Pitt feeds off the energy of the crowd, as the school is set to honor the 2002 Big East Championship team at halftime of the game. Hinson and Elliott are hitting their outside shots right now, maybe they won't convert 18 of them, but they seem to be in a good rhythm. I also don't expect Jamarius Burton to held down to six points for a second consecutive game. Pitt wins on Saturday and gets close to being ranked on Monday.