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The 3-2-1 Column: A bad time for a bye week, Kenny Pickett, and more

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In this week’s 3-2-1 Column, we talk Pitt football and the bye week. It’s also worth discussing some other sports, too, now that we have the chance. Let’s dig in for over 2,000 words of Pitt talk on a Friday morning.

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THREE THINGS WE KNOW

Not a great time for a bye week
Pitt just had a commanding win over Georgia Tech last Saturday. The Panthers stormed into Atlanta for a third straight season and walked out with a 52-21 victory over the Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field. It was the ACC opener for Pitt and Pat Narduzzi’s team made a statement and now sit atop the chaotic ACC Coastal Division with a 1-0 league record alongside their next opponent, Virginia Tech.

The only problem now is that the team has to wait a week to have a chance to make another statement.

The bye week comes at an inopportune time for this team. I think Pitt wanted to show it was over the loss to Western Michigan in week three, and beating New Hampshire 77-7 didn’t really quiet any doubters, but a 31-point conference win on the road may have done the trick. Pitt’s offense proved it was for real in that game by racking up 580 of total offense, and really if Pitt pushed the issue the Panthers probably could have won that game by even more than five scores. It was that easy for them to move the ball against what was considered going into that matchup to be a pretty talented Georgia Tech defense.

The Panthers are the highest scoring team in college football averaging 52.4 points per game and now they must wait to unleash that offense on another opponent. I don’t like the timing of it for this team seeing how the season is playing out, but even ahead of the season this was never a great time to have a bye week. Pitt has a three-game run of Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Miami on the horizon, and a bye week slipped in there may have been more beneficial. It is what it is and nothing can be done about it, but having a bye week this early on the schedule, especially given how the season has played out, is not ideal.

Pitt has 24 seniors and a coaching staff that has been around for a few years. If there’s ever a team to regain focus after a long layoff, it should be this one. This is a very senior-led team, and now they have a week to cool down emotionally from the highs of of the win over Georgia Tech, then another week to prepare to go into a hostile environment in Blacksburg.

There are pros and cons to any bye week on the schedule, and you can sit back and slice it however you want to, but in the end you have to go out and play the next game. I think this team got banged up a bit in Atlanta, so the extra rest will be useful heading into a difficult seven-game run to close out the regular season.

Talking about the other sports
The bye week does afford us one opportunity and that is to pay some respect to the other Pitt athletic programs. Football and men’s basketball are always going to be the most popular sports at the college level overall and on this website as well, but there are other collegiate sports and it’s worth mentioning Pitt has become pretty good at quite some of them in recent history.

The first sport to sort of take on this recent renaissance is the volleyball team, which is ranked No. 2 in the nation this week. They have advanced to five-straight NCAA Tournaments and have won the ACC regular season crown three times during that stretch. By all indications, there is a good chance that can all happen again this season. Dan Fisher’s team is 14-0 and have won all four of its ACC matches thus far. Led by potential All-Americans Chinaza Ndee and Kayla Lund, Pitt is coming off a season in which it advanced to the NCAA regional finals, and has all the talent and depth to take it a step further this season. Pitt hosts Clemson at Fitzgerald Field House this evening and Georgia Tech on Sunday as the team looks to improve to 16-0.

Pitt men’s soccer has also been a program emerging on the national scene under coach Jay Vidovich. The Panthers are ranked No. 13 this week in the polls and own a current 7-3 record. Pitt has back-to-back NCAA Tournament berths, including a run to the College Cup a season ago, and a third consecutive trip to the Big Dance seems to be on the horizon. The ACC has always been one of the best leagues in the country in men’s soccer, and Pitt has forced its way in there to be a championship contender. Pitt’s Ambrose Urbanic Field may not be intimidating to visiting teams from the outside, but the Panthers have won 15 consecutive matches there and will put that on the line Saturday night against No. 3 Duke.

The women’s soccer team isn’t quite on par with the two programs mentioned above, but it is certainly on the rise from where it was. The Panthers cracked the rankings earlier this season, a rarity for this program that only dates back to 1996. Head Coach Randy Waldrum has done wonders in a short amount of time. The team won 11 games last season, and is off to an 8-5 start this year with a trip to No. 4 Duke this Sunday looming. It will be an ongoing process to get this program into the top-half of the ACC, but Waldrum has been taking the necessary steps trying to make it happen.

An oddly effective defense
The Pitt football team has been more driven by its defense in recent seasons. The Panthers ranked in the top 20 in each of the past two seasons in yards allowed. They are among the best in the country at sacking the quarterback and defending the run. It is the identity this program that has been built under Pat Narduzzi.

It’s a little different in 2021.

Through five games, it has been pretty clear that the offense is the team strength and the defense is lagging behind a bit. It’s not a surprise given the returning personnel on each side of the ball, it’s just a reality at this point. Pitt is 49th in total defense allowing 338.4 yards per game, and 55th in scoring defense. We saw the team give up big yardage totals to Tennessee, Western Michigan, and even Georgia Tech, despite a 31-point victory. The defense isn’t what it has been in past seasons, but at the same time it has been reasonably effective, especially in those games with Tennessee and Georgia Tech.

Here are the facts: Pitt is ranked fifth in the country in both third-down and fourth-down defense, so this group has displayed the ability to get off the field when it counts. It was evident last week when the team held Georgia Tech to 2-of-11 on its third down conversion attempts. Also of note, Pitt is towards the top in red zone defense, as the Panthers have allowed 14 scores in 21 chances, so seven times a team has come up empty inside of Pitt’s 20-yard line. Pretty good.

The staples are still there, of course. Pitt is 5th in the country with 18 sacks and 6th with 40 tackles for loss. The rushing defense has had its rough spots, but is still ranked 23rd there. Pitt did a good job of limiting a strong Georgia Tech rushing attack, and while the Yellow Jackets got yards through the air, it was because the large deficit forced them to call more passing plays.

Pitt is one of 19 programs to have two at least two defensive touchdowns this season, and don’t forget that safety against New Hampshire as well. The Panthers have made some splash plays on that side of the ball on the eight turnovers they have created and can come up with a big play.

So Pitt won’t have multiple All-Americans or All-ACC players off of this year’s defense. They probably will continue to allow big plays as well and the offense will still have to carry this team on most days. These are all likely realties of the 2021 Pitt football team, but if they can continue to make stops on third down and get pressure on the quarterback, then the defense can be effective enough to keep this team in games.

Habakkuk Baldonado has 5.5 TFL and 3.5 sacks this season
Habakkuk Baldonado has 5.5 TFL and 3.5 sacks this season (Matt Hawley)

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Who starts for the basketball team?
A football bye week seems like a good time to talk some hoops. Believe it or not, we are just about a month away from the season opener against The Citadel on November 9th, and a few weeks away from the exhibition game, which will be the first time that we should get a real look at the lineup and rotation for the 2021-22 Panthers. There is a scrimmage tomorrow open to the public, but I assume the teams will be split evenly more than a real look at the at the actual rotation, so we might not learn a ton about who starts and who is in the actual rotation.

I feel like last year’s team was so reliant on the core group of starters, and it made it hard to get a feel for the rest of the team. Aall of those guys have since transferred, or in Justin Champagnie's case, are in the NBA. It’s a fresh start for Jeff Capel in year four of his tenure, and to be fair, the expectations for this team are not particularly high. Most prognosticators have Pitt picked to finish in the bottom third of the league, a place where this program has resided in all five seasons since Jamie Dixon left in 2016.

It is a tough group to figure in terms of how the rotation shakes out for this season. Ithiel Horton is the lone returning starter from last year. Femi Odukale started at point guard down the stretch after Xavier Johnson departed, and Nike Sibande came on pretty strong late in the year. Throw in Texas Tech transfer Jamarius Burton, and it appears there is some talent and depth at the two guard spots. So, do you start three guards or try to balance it out and start more size? That's an interesting debate, but Sibande and Odukale seem athletic enough to get away with the three guard look if Capel decides to go that direction.

It seems pretty set that Hugley and Stony Brook transfer Mo Gueye will handle the bulk of the minutes at the center position. Max Amadasun returns for his second season, but he had trouble cracking the lineup a season ago despite playing time being available.

That leaves five wings or forwards to round out the roster in sophomores William Jeffress, Noah Collier, along with Oakland transfer Dan Oladapo, junior college transfer Chris Payton, and incoming freshman Nate Santos. I would be surprised if Santos contributes much in year one, but the other four players should be in line for playing time, but do you start one or two of these guys?

Jeffress was a big-time recruit, but came to Pitt at a young age after reclassifying into the 2020 class. He displayed promise at times last season, but his inexperience also showed. Payton was a strong player at the junior college level, but JuCo guys can be tough to project. Oladapo has been solid at the Division-1 level for multiple seasons, but he was playing for Oakland at the mid-major level.

After laying all out like that, it’s hard to really come up with a starting lineup that is clear without having seen the team play yet. Chris Peak was at the team’s practice last week, and one thing struck me from his report was that he noted there doesn't seem to be one standout player. There isn’t a Justin Champagnie or a guy that makes opponents worry, at least for now.

I like Pitt’s backcourt depth. I’m bullish on the sophomore forward trio of Collier, Hugley, and Jeffress. I think at least one of Gueye, Payton, or Oladapo turns into a reliable player, if not all three guys. I don’t know if that is enough to get the team out of the bottom third of the league, but it should make them competitive if nothing else.

If I had to take a guess, Pitt starts Odukale, Horton, Sibande, Oladapo, and Hugley. I could see a spot for Burton, though. Even Gueye, heck maybe Jeffress too. So, this question may take some time before it gets answered.

Is the Heisman talk legit?
I don’t think Kenny Pickett is going to win the Heisman Trophy this year. There it is. The award is mostly given to the best player on the best team, so somebody from Alabama will win again. I think we all understand that by now.

Having said that, does Kenny Pickett deserve to win the Heisman? Should he be invited to New York? Is this all crazy talk or is Pickett actually this good? I’ll save you the trouble on the last question: yes, he is that good. Period. Pickett is the best player in the ACC through five weeks of the season, and I believe he has the staying power to remain at or near the top all season long.

I think Pitt’s offensive production is pretty sustainable. 50 points a game, best in the country? Eh, we’ll see if that can remain for seven more games. I don’t think this is a flash in a pan, for Pitt’s offense overall, and Pickett himself. There are weapons on the outside that can make plays, a quarterback that is throwing darts, and as much as some might not want to see this, an offensive coordinator putting them in good positions to have success.

Pickett is going to continue to put up good numbers in a lot, if not in all of the remaining games this season. His torrid pace may slow down some, but given the way this team plays, there will still be chances to post big numbers each and every week.

The Heisman talk may seem a little premature, at least I think it is, but he’s really good and the praise and buzz he is getting is warranted. This isn’t a fluke.

Kenny Pickett
Kenny Pickett (Matt Hawley)

ONE PREDICTION

The running game continues to get better
Two weeks ago in this very column I said that Pitt should more or less abandon the run. That may have been a stretch, but obviously I believe Pitt’s path to success this season relies more on Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison than the running game magically clicking after two-plus seasons of struggling. Pitt has arguably the best quarterback in the country right now, so you’ve got to ride that hot hand in my opinion.

Having said that, the running game played well against New Hampshire, but that did not really say a lot. The backs performed well against Georgia Tech and that caught my eye for sure. Pitt’s passing game was torching the Yellow Jackets, but had Pitt committed to the run, I think the team would have had a lot of success there as well.

It could have been Georgia Tech’s concerns about the pass or the three-man front, but Pitt ran the ball with success last week. The three-man trio of Israel Abanikanda, Vincent Davis, and Rodney Hammond all each rushed for 48 or more yards in the victory.

Abanikanda has totaled 135 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 4.8 yards per carry in the past two weeks after only receiving one carry against Western Michigan. Hammond has 148 yards and three scores in the past two games, and Davis has an even 100 yards in this stretch. Again, New Hampshire inflated some of these stats, but the run game has looked much more competent than it had in the first three games.

I think that trend can continue to an extent. Pitt is probably not going to win many games this season because of its prowess on the ground, but I don't think it will be a total weakness moving forward either. Virginia Tech will be a tough challenge, but not an impossible one. The Hokies are 61st against the run nationally, allowing 135.8 yards per game, a bit better than what Pitt saw against Georgia Tech, at least on paper.

So no, Pitt shouldn't totally abandon the run like that fool wrote on here two weeks ago.

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