Pitt enters the final day of the regular season in a three-way tie atop the ACC standings. In order to claim a share or even an outright league title, the Panthers will need to be at their best tonight when they take on No. 16 Miami.
The Hurricanes are also in that three way mix at the top of the ACC along with Virginia. Pitt currently is 2-0 against both programs, but enter this game on a sour note. The Panthers had a subpar effort on Wednesday night and lost to one of the bottom teams in the league, Notre Dame, by a score of 88-81.
Pitt enters this game with a 21-9 record on the season, and despite their standing in the ACC, many feel the Panthers have work to do to enhance their NCAA Tournament chances. That added wrinkle only adds more pressure for Jeff Capel's squad heading into Saturday.
Like Pitt, Miami is coming into this one following a puzzling loss. Last week, the Hurricanes surrendered a big halftime lead and dropped one to rival Florida State after holding a 23-point lead. Otherwise, the Hurricanes have been very good down the stretch, as they had won seven in a row prior to that defeat.
Pitt and Miami played a tightly contested game back on January 28th. The Panthers used a late surge to erase an 8-point deficit and come away with a 71-68 victory at the Petersen Events Center. Given the stakes and the location, this meeting should be much more difficult.
Here is how the Panther-Lair.com staff sees this one playing out on Saturday night from Coral Gables.
Stephen Gertz (21-9): Other than winning in Chapel Hill, NC the Pittsburgh Panthers have not had an impressive road win in 2023. Granted, only the North Carolina Tar Heels (probably?) and the Virginia Tech Hokies (maybe?) would qualify for that distinction. That just lets you know that Pitt has not really been tested on the road for a bulk of their ACC schedule. Not only is this a road game, but the Miami Hurricanes are among the best teams that the Panthers will play. Sure, Pitt could bounce back as a team. But every player not named Greg Elliott performed well against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The issue is that the Panthers are not defending well, at home or on the road. That is a problem against a Miami team that is the best three-point shooting team in the conference - based on league games - and features a potent, athletic offensive attack. Additionally, the Hurricanes have had an entire week to sit around and ponder blowing a lead at home against the Florida State Seminoles. That also means they are going to have fresher legs. I also have a hard time believing they are going to lose two consecutive home games, especially with so much at stake. Jamarius Burton and Isaiah Wong may play to a draw, but Jordan Miller is the kind of player that Pitt does not defend well. He played really well at the Pete and I expect a repeat performance.
Prediction: Miami 79, Pitt 74
Houston Wilson (20-10): Pitt is coming off a disappointing loss against Notre Dame and the task at hand today does not become easier on the road at Miami. With the win, Pitt can grab the 1 seed heading into the ACC Tournament next week. Miami has been excellent all year long and I think the energy in the building today is going to be electric. I do believe this is a game that Pitt is going to be extremely ready for and playing on the road, I think Pitt is playing with a little house money which will help them. I’m expecting a dog fight today, but I see Miami squeaking this out
Prediction: Miami 78, Pitt 73
Matt Steinbrink (16-14): It is all on the line for Pitt. They have played some big games this season and have come out on the right side a handful of times. That is what puts them in this position. It is the biggest game this program has had in a long time. For a program that has been irrelevant for far too long, they have 40 minutes to win the ACC regular season. The pressure has been raised and this Miami team is tough. Both teams are almost mirror images of themselves actually. Two very good rosters with plenty of firepower and limited benches. I said it before the last matchup that I am not sure you can find two closer teams as far as the matchup goes, and it proved to be true with a three point margin last time. Now Miami is home and knows that they can win the league outright. Pitt's best outcome is a shared title here. The fact that Miami gets the game at home and has been resting a week since that Florida State loss gives them the slight edge here. The game could obviously go either way and nothing would surprise me other than the result being more than a one or two possession game. This Miami team is just really good and there isn't really a weakness. The Miami staff and players also probably feel like they gave the game away last time in this matchup. If Pitt can pull this one off, they certainly deserve the title.
Prediction: Miami 81, Pitt 76
Jim Hammett (21-9): I don't think Pitt's loss to Notre Dame the other day changes how I feel about this game. It was always going to be tough, and we've known that for months. The Hurricanes present so many challenges because Jim Larranaga is a very good coach for one, and also they have some really good players, most notable Isaiah Wong. Plus this game is on the road and the Miami crowd will certainly be into this one with an ACC title on the line. We saw how in the first meeting Miami really would find ways to limit Pitt for long stretches, but Pitt kept finding ways to claw back, especially in that run at the end. I really expect this just to be a nip and tuck kind of game, but I am leaning with the Hurricanes due to the homecourt advantage.
Prediction: Miami 75, Pitt 70
Chris Peak (21-9): There were some things I forgot about from the first Pitt-Miami game. Like how Pitt only made four field goals in the final 10:30 of the first half. And how the Hurricanes took a lead 12 minutes into the game and never lost it until the final 30 seconds. And how Federiko Federiko had his third four-block game of the season. I think all of those things are relevant tonight: the Panthers can’t have that kind of field goal drought on the road. They can’t let Miami go up 11 in the first half and play from behind until the final minute. And they need Federiko to get back to form, since he has four blocks total in the last four games after he recorded at least three in five straight contests. Most importantly, Pitt needs its stars to have big games: Jamarius Burton needs to flirt with a triple-double again. Blake Hinson needs to splash some three’s early and often. And Nelly Cummings needs to run the show. It seems like it has been awhile since all of those things came together consistently, but I think Federiko gets a more advantageous matchup than he had at Notre Dame, I think Hinson hits five or six three’s (he had five in the first Miami game) and I think Burton makes his case for ACC Player of the Year. I’ve been fairly convinced for the last few days that Miami would win, but I’m taking Pitt one last time in the regular season.
Prediction: Pitt 77, Miami 75
