The stretch run is here for the Pitt basketball team, with 10 games over five weeks to close out the regular season starting tonight. It will be a quick turnaround for the Panthers. After falling to Wake Forest by a 76-74 score on Saturday, Pitt will be back in acton tonight for a Big Monday showdown against the Virginia Cavaliers with tipoff set for 7:00 p.m. on ESPN.
The two teams are having different seasons. For the Panthers, they remain in NCAA Tournament contention with a 14-7 (5-5) record. Although, the time is now for Pitt to start stacking some wins to add to its resume. Pitt started off the year 12-2, but a nightmarish month of January for Jeff Capel’s team has them more on the bubble, and it’s getting to the point where every game matters.
For Virginia, things are quite different in Charlottesville for the first time in a while. Legendary coach Tony Bennett suddenly resigned before the start of the season, sending shockwaves across the sport. Bennett was an institution at Virginia, leading the Cavaliers to 10 NCAA Tournaments (11 counting the COVID year), six ACC regular season titles, and reaching the pinnacle with a national title in 2019.
Bennett’s abrupt departure led to the promotion of Ron Sanchez as the interim coach. As one might expect, having a Hall of Fame level coach quit just before the season started did not lead to a smooth transition. Virginia comes into tonight with a 10-12 overall record, and just a 3-8 mark in ACC play.
Virginia still has some formidable players, most notable Isaac McKneely, one of the best outside shooters in the country. McKeenly has 198 career makes from three-point range, making them at an impressive 42% clip. He leads Virginia in scoring at 13.3 points per game.
Pitt’s transition to the ACC coincided with Virginia’s impressive run under Bennett. The Cavaliers hold the all-time series lead at 19-6, though Pitt has won two consecutive games in this series. Can be bounce back from that loss to Wake Forest? The Panther-Lair.com staff gives their picks below.
Stephen Gertz (14-7, 7-14 ATS) - The Pittsburgh Panthers (14-7, 5-5) must avoid losing this game. That is not quite the same thing as saying they need to win, even though the outcome is the same in both instances. With each missed opportunity for a Quad 1 win, their margin for error shrinks. While losing road games against Quad 1 opponents likely will not shrink that, a home loss to a bad team certainly will. Enter the Virginia Cavaliers. Their path to victory is to get extremely hot from three-point distance, which they are more than capable of doing. Of course, it does not seem to matter if a team is actually proficient on triples because everyone Pitt plays tends to have a good to great day from beyond the arc. Virginia plays at a plodding pace, should not be a threat to dominate the offensive glass, and do not get to the free throw line. Other than the slow pace, those other things play into the Panthers’ hands. They're more talented across the board and I think they show that from start to finish.
Prediction: Pitt 75-63
Jim Hammett (16-5, 11-10 ATS) - For a team that is just 2-5 over its last seven games, Pitt being a 13-point favorite is kind of a tough line. The Panthers have not played all that well for the better part of a month, but Virginia has not done well at all this season. Virginia has been a staple at the top of the ACC for over a decade, so it's weird to see the Cavaliers with a losing record to start February. Pitt has won the past two in this series, and this Virginia team is certainly worse than the two before it. If Pitt can contain Isaac McKneely, there aren't a ton of other threats on the Virginia roster. But a lot of tonight's game will be about dictating tempo and making shots. Virginia wants this game in the mud, and Pitt needs to do the best it can to avoid letting that happen. I think Pitt wins, maybe even somewhat comfortably, but this could be a low-scoring game, to the point where I think Virginia covers the large spread.
Prediction: Pitt 71-59
Matt Steinbrink (15-6, 6-15 ATS) - Pitt’s margin for error is shrinking. We are down to the last full month to add to the resume and improve their metrics. Tonight is an opportunity to take advantage of a program in transition. Virginia has been one of the pillars of the league under Coach Bennett, but now they are by an interim coach and a bit short on talent. Pitt has to win the rebounding edge tonight, and keep Isaac McKneely under control. If they do that, they should not have any issues. Virginia struggles to score the ball and get away from teams at all. With Pitt being home in a must win game, I think they take care of business.
Predcition: Pitt 72-63
Houston Wilson (16-5, 9-12 ATS) - Pitt has a chance to secure a win tonight, though it wouldn’t do much to strengthen their NCAA tournament résumé. However, a loss could be costly. That said, Virginia isn’t the powerhouse they usually are. They’ve struggled on the road, and even when they’ve found success, it’s largely been due to Elijah Saunders—who is likely out tonight. Given the circumstances, Pitt should have a clear path to victory.
Prediction: Pitt 82-68
Chris Peak (16-5, 9-12 ATS) - Virginia’s fall-off this season has been pretty harsh for the Cavalier faithful, but Virginia’s fall is to Pitt’s benefit - provided the Panthers don’t have a slip-up of their own. Pitt still hasn’t taken a bad loss this season, so that’s a positive despite the fact that the Panthers are keeping themselves perilously close to the bubble by not getting any quality wins in the conference (yet). Tonight’s game is a trap, then: a game Pitt has to win, not because a win can elevate the Panthers’ resume but rather because a loss can really sink their hopes. I don’t think the resume will take a hit tonight. Virginia is one of the worst teams in the ACC, and while I don’t know if Pitt will win by a dozen like the spread says, I’m willing to pick the Panthers to cover and more with return-to-form shooting from Zack Austin, the continued resurgence of Damian Dunn and a little more efficiency from Jaland Lowe and Ishmael Leggett.
Prediction: Pitt 85-68
