The 3-2-1 Column: The known, the unknown and more about Pitt's 2019 season

Training camp is here
Hope springs eternal this time of year, doesn’t it? Nobody has lost a game, everybody is thinking about the most optimistic outcomes and trying to downplay the potential pitfalls of the roster or the schedule.

It’s a magical time of year. For most fans, coaches and players, it’s a time to consider what could be if everything goes right. Don’t worry about risk or probability or likelihood; whatever can go right…will.

Kenny Pickett will get better. Mark Whipple will improve the passing attack. Someone will drive the running game. The offensive line will gel. The defensive line will get pressure. The linebackers will be more athletic. The secondary will be one of the best in the ACC. The defense overall will be consistently good from the start of the season to the finish.

All of those things will happen. Because it’s training camp, and that’s when we’re free to believe that everything that can happen actually will happen.

And that’s the fun of training camp. It’s the promise of the unknown - of which Pitt certainly has plenty.

Unknowns at quarterback, running back, tight end, both tackle spots and both guard spots. Unknowns in the depth at defensive end, both outside linebacker positions and the boundary safety. Some of that is due to the nature of college football (more on that in a minute), some is due to under-performance and some is due to a lack of development.

Unknown doesn’t necessarily mean a negative; it just means that the outcomes at those positions are up in the air. At a number of spots where there is a question mark, the possibility exists that things could swing in Pitt’s favor. Take quarterback, for instance: Pickett’s play was wildly inconsistent and mostly ineffective last season, but between the 2017 Miami game, the 2018 Wake Forest game and scattered spots in between, the junior from New Jersey looked quite good. So there’s at least potential for Whipple to make something out of the tools Pickett seems to have.

The same goes for the rest of the question marks. The running backs are unproven, but Pitt has had a knack for the last decade or two of plugging in players and piling up rushing yards. The offensive linemen are inexperienced, but there are enough numbers that the coaches should be able to find workable solutions. The defensive end depth is up in the air, but the starters should be quite good and shoulder the bulk of the load. The outside linebackers have little career playing time, but they can make up for some of that with athleticism. And the boundary safety spot…well, that’s up to Paris Ford.

Which brings us back to the fun of training camp: projecting what can happen if everything goes right.

To be sure, we can’t ignore the possibility that some or all of those things won’t go right. At least one or two or more of them will be an issue throughout the season, particularly if there are a few injuries at key spots. But for now, we can just sit back and envision what might be - while the coaches and players work on making it happen.

Turnover is natural
Much of the consternation - or at least concern - about this year’s team comes from the holes.

Holes on the offensive line. Holes at running back. Holes at linebacker. There are seven open starting positions in those three groups, all left vacant by experienced upperclassmen who finished their eligibility last season.

And because players graduated at those spots, Pitt enters Year Five of the Narduzzi era with four open jobs on the offensive line, no running back with any career productivity to speak of and two linebacker positions that will probably be manned by players with hardly any experience.

That’s less than ideal, of course. But it’s also something else:

It’s normal.

This is college football, where the eligibility clock starts ticking and doesn’t stop until time runs out. And everybody’s time runs out, whether it’s four years or five years (or sometimes three or six); everybody’s clock stops ticking, and when that happens, they have to be replaced by someone else.

Turnover is inevitable in college football. And in most cases, when one multi-year starter graduates, there probably isn’t going to be another guy with starting experience ready to step in for him.

That’s especially true on the offensive line, even more so than the other spots Pitt is lacking experience, like running back and linebacker. Coaches will usually rotate those spots: running backs split carries, even when there’s a clear “lead” back, and linebackers will get a breather from time to time or come off the field in certain packages.

But on the offensive line, the five who run out there usually stay out there. And if you end up with a senior-heavy unit one year, which is a good thing, you’re going to probably end with an inexperienced unit the next year, which is not a good thing.

That’s where Pitt is right now with the line. Last year’s group had four seniors, but in a unique twist, only one of those four was a multi-year starter; that was Alex Bookser, who had been a stalwart of the line for several seasons, whereas Stefano Millin was a grad transfer and Connor Dintino and Mike Herndon were single-year starters.

Regardless of the oddities of last season, this year’s group enters with one returning starter - Jimmy Morrissey - and four new faces. Again, that’s not ideal, but it’s just how the stars aligned this year. Is it indicative of shortcomings in recruiting and development? Perhaps, a little. The 2016 recruiting class featured four offensive linemen - Bryce Hargrove, Brandon Ford, Justin Morgan and Zack Williams - and you probably know the story there:

Two of those guys aren’t even on the team and only one has logged a career start. So that has created a bit of a hole in the depth chart. But the 2017 class, which could provide the entire two-deep at offensive tackle this season - both left and right - is looking like it will pick up the slack. That should help secure things for the next few years, but eventually, Pitt’s going to need new starters again.

That’s just how it goes.

Sure things
Not every position has turnover, though; in fact, there are some spots where not only is Pitt returning a starter, but the Panthers have some very good players coming back.

Specifically, I’m thinking of four guys who are probably about as close to being “sure things” as anybody on the current roster. In no particular order:

Rashad Weaver, Dane Jackson, Jason Pinnock and Damar Hamlin.

Weaver had good production last season with 6.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss. Those aren’t Aaron Donald or Ejuan Price numbers, but both stats were top-ten in the ACC last season and rank among the best returning production in the conference.

At cornerback, Jackson had a team-high 14 pass breakups and Pinnock tied for the team lead with two interceptions, while both were right around 50% in the opponent reception rate when targeted. They’ve both got premium size and speed and should be among the top duos in the ACC this season.

And Hamlin was pretty rock solid last year. Playing his first full season since arriving at Pitt, Hamlin started all 14 games and led the Panthers in tackles with 90. He also matched Pinnock with two interceptions and emerged as a leader in the secondary and on the defense.

Now, every one of those four players - Weaver, Jackson, Pinnock and Hamlin - needs to take a step forward in 2019; there’s no question about that. I’m fully confident in those guys being sure things for Pitt’s defense this season, but they can’t rest on their laurels: they have to get better and perform at an even higher level than they did a year ago.

But I think there’s reason to believe that they will. For starters, they all have a lot of experience. Pinnock is the youngest of the group, as he’s entering his third season, but even he has played in 23 games over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Weaver and Hamlin are fourth-year players and Jackson is a redshirt senior. All of that playing time will benefit these players.

More importantly, they’re simply very talented. All four of those guys should be getting paid to play football in the next two years (assuming everybody plays out their eligibility; if not, they could all be on a payroll next year).

Weaver, Jackson, Pinnock and Hamlin can’t do it alone, of course. They’re going to need help, particularly from the middle of the defense, where the absence of any linebackers on this list of “sure things” is quite conspicuous. But having something reliable, having players who can excel at their position and lining them up at defensive end, both cornerback spots and field safety - that’s a good way to start a defense.

TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE

Are there any on offense?
You may or may not have agreed with that last section about “sure things” and who that terms applies to on the current Pitt roster. I don’t think it was too far off, though, and whether or not you think those four guys are in the category, something probably stood out to you (because I know it did to me):

They’re all on defense.

I think the idea of “sure things” first occurred to me while taping a podcast; I happened upon it through the natural progress of conversation, or whatever qualifies as conversation when you’re taping a solo podcast. Those were the first four names that came to mind, and I think that helps make the case for those guys, since they were the automatic responses.

But after I said those four names, I realized that I didn’t name anyone on offense. So I wondered: who’s a sure thing on that side of the ball?

It’s not the quarterback; not yet at least. It’s not the running backs; nobody knows what Pitt has back there. It’s not the offensive line; we’ve talked at length about that group’s uncertainty. And it’s not the tight ends; nothing more needs to be said there.

Wide receiver, though…that’s an intriguing spot, because there are two guys lining up at receiver for Pitt this season who just might be among the surest things on the team - as much as Weaver, Jackson, Pinnock and Hamlin.

I’m talking, of course, about Maurice Ffrench and Taysir Mack, and it’s a bit funny to put them in this group because their 2018 stats - combined totals of 60 receptions, 1,072 yards and seven touchdowns - aren’t exactly eye-popping. But there’s more to the numbers.

There’s Mack’s 22.3 yards per reception, a number that compares favorably to the 2018 averages of DK Metcalf (21.9 ypc), Justyn Ross (21.7 ypc) and Jerry Jeudy (19.3 ypc). And there are Ffrench’s 10 touchdowns, a total made up of six receptions, two rushes and two returns; in total, he averaged 16.3 yards per touch, the highest all-purpose average on the team last season.

The biggest thing Ffrench and Mack lacked last season was opportunity. Two receivers of their caliber should combine for a total of 110 pass targets in 14 games. Do the math on that: over 14 games, that’s less than eight passes per game to two guys who have big-play potential and production.

Give Ffrench or Mack the kind of opportunities that, say, Justyn Ross and Amari Rodgers had as the second and third receivers at Clemson last year. Ross saw 73 targets and Rodgers had 71 (never mind Tee Higgins, who was targeted 94 times); it’s kind of wild to think what Ffrench and Mack could have done if they had gotten the ball like that.

This is all going to fall at the feet of Whipple and Pickett, of course. It’s not hard to figure out what to do with those two receivers: get Ffrench the ball in space and throw deep to Mack. I know Ffrench can catch a deep pass, too, but just focus on those two goals, and I think the production in the passing game will increase pretty significantly.

In my view, those guys are sure things. They just need someone to get them the ball.

Who are the wild cards?
So those are the “sure things” as I see them, and Pitt’s going to need all of them to perform at a high level, to be sure. But you can’t win with sure things alone; to really come out on top in a 12-game regular season and beyond, you need something else. You need guys outside of that “sure thing” category to step up. You need the unexpected. You need the breakouts.

You need wild cards.

Who are Pitt’s most likely candidates to be wild cards?

The biggest one will be lining up next to one of the sure things: Paris Ford. This is a big year for the redshirt sophomore from western Pa. It’s the absolute middle of his Pitt career - or at least his eligibility - and he’ll tell you that his first two seasons weren’t anywhere near expectations. He was a late enrollee two years ago, not arriving until a few days into training camp, which led to a redshirt. Last season, he moved to cornerback and played in nine games, making five tackles in that span.

All of that fell well short of what was expected from the four-star recruit. Now, as he enters his third season, the expectations are rising again. He worked as the No. 1 boundary safety in spring camp and earned positive reviews, not just for his play but also for his work ethic, his focus and his attention to details.

If all of that praise was sincere and Ford really has grown as the coaches say he has, then Pitt’s secondary could be quite potent with him joining Hamlin, Jackson and Pinnock.

Another wild card on defense is Patrick Jones. Like Ford, he’s a match with one of the sure things, as he’s projected to start at defensive end opposite Weaver. Jones had four sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss in a reserve role last season, and those numbers compared favorably with Dewayne Hendrix, who started ahead of him. While playing 130 more snaps, Hendrix 4.5 sacks and five tackles for loss and produced just seven more pressures, according to Pro Football Focus.

With a greater share of snaps and another year of experience, Jones should see his production stats increase this season, and having an effective pass rush coming from a pair of bookends in Jones and Weaver will help the overall performance of the defense against some of the passing attacks Pitt will face in the ACC.

On the offensive side of the ball, there’s one guy I keep coming back to as a wild card, and I’ll mention him again: it’s V’Lique Carter, the sophomore cornerback-turned-running back who made his collegiate debut with a dazzling performance against Duke - seven carries, 137 yards, two touchdowns.

Carter didn’t do much in the remaining six games of the season, gaining 65 yards on 18 rushing attempts, but he was a one-trick pony; now, as he enters his sophomore season, the Florida native has spent the last eight months working at becoming a full-on running back. If he has taken to the changes and grasped the playbook, he has the potential to be an explosive big-play option out of a backfield that is, entering August, wide open.

And the other wild card on the offense is more a group of cards: it’s the offensive tackles. Pitt has some options at guard and should be able to find two good options at those spots, but the tackles are really up in the air. I’ve said before that there’s a potential upside to the tackle situation, which is having four redshirt sophomores compete for the two jobs could lead to having three-year starters at left and right tackle - which is certainly a good thing.

But for this season, the tackles are wild cards. Carter Warren and Gabe Houy came out of spring camp working on the first team at left and right tackle, respectively. But whoever wins those jobs will go into the wild card category, because their success can go a long way in determining the team’s success this season.

JUST ONE MORE THING

Okay, I’m going to do it.

I’m going to make a prediction on Pitt’s 2019 season.

I’m going to do it. I swear. Here it comes. I predict…

Eh, I can’t do it. I just can’t. Because anything that I say here, any kind of prediction that purports to be knowledgeable or based on fact…well, it isn’t. It’s a guess, and not much of an educated one at that.

The truth is, there are too many question marks around this team. There are too many things that we just don’t know, too many areas where there is uncertainty, too many positions that will be manned by inexperienced players, too many holes from last season that have yet to be filled.

Like the offense, in general, and the quarterback, in particular. Not one of us knows what Kenny Pickett is going to be in 2019, nor do we know what the Panthers’ offense is going to be, and those two are obviously very much connected.

And since the fate of the team is closely tied to the fate of the offense, well, it’s not hard to understand why making a prediction for this team is so challenging.

How can I predict a win total for Pitt when I don’t know what the offense will be? Last year, Pitt’s offense cost the team at least three wins (I could make a case for the Notre Dame, Miami and Stanford games), so if we don’t know whether the offense improved, can we really say that the win total will go up? Pat Narduzzi did what he needed to do and made a change at offensive coordinator; that’s all well and good, and if it doesn’t totally swing the preseason pendulum from “bad” to “good,” it at least gets the thing moving.

But where will it land? I can look at Mark Whipple’s history and say, “Well, look at how he spread the ball around at UMass” - that’s my personal favorite piece of Whipple evidence - and then extrapolate that he will have a similar effect on Pickett on Pitt’s receivers.

Except, I don’t know if that will happen. What if the problem with the offense last season wasn’t Shawn Watson as much as it was Kenny Pickett? Or what if they were equally complicit in the struggles? I don’t personally think that was the case, but I can’t entirely rule it out.

So I can’t predict that it will improve this season. And you probably can’t either. Based on the empirical evidence we have, from the strength of schedule to Pickett’s track record to the returning players on offense, the win total with the highest probability for this team is somewhere around seven.

That’s based on what we know, and what we don’t know, as they say, could almost fit into the Grand Canyon. Just as in 2016, we had no idea what was coming from Pitt’s offense, so too do we have little to no idea of what to expect.

Of course, it worked out pretty well that season, at least on offense. But we didn’t know what to expect in 2017, when the coordinator changed, or in 2018, when the quarterback changed; those two seasons didn’t work out quite as well.

I get conflicted, though, by a few things. There’s Whipple’s track record; he devised a really productive passing game at UMass. There are guys like Mack and Ffrench; I really do think they’re capable of putting up a lot of numbers in a good passing attack. And there are those moments in Pickett’s career when you saw enough potential to believe he could be really good. There’s no getting around the questions on the offensive line, and that could blow up the whole plan. But there’s enough in the offense, I think, that you can convince yourself of things going a certain way without having to stretch too far to believe it.

So what’s Pitt going to do in 2019? I have no idea. But I know what I’ll be watching for over the next four weeks and, more importantly, over the three months that follow.